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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:28 pm
by JohnDillworth
Grinding away on the ground in Honshu while pursuing a strategic bombing campaign from Hokkaido seems like a recipe for victory to me - Rader's already lost, we're in 1944 and allied boots are on the big island - now it just remains to see how long the game will last.
True, might as well try and take something that will interdict the flow of oil. Ton of stuff has to be lightly guarded. US CV's are the strongest asset in the game right now and Rader won't pull aircraft from the HI

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:48 pm
by cwDeici
ORIGINAL: crsutton
...
The problem with any invasion is that if the enemy is there in strength then you are required to support it until it is decided. It would be incredibly risky for GJ to move his carriers away out of supporting range of his invasions, as we all have seen how Rader can take advantage of it. Odd as it sounds, until GJ clears out one or two invasions hexes, (or withdraws) Rader will hold the initiative, because KB still exists and does not have to be committed to fighting the invasion.

Oh I see... so his airforce is so weak now he needs to evacuate at least one of the beachheads? That's a pity.
Thanks for the answers!

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
One more point about owning bases is that obviously you control the port and airfield. Assuming you can keep them open in the face of enemy air and naval attack, you can unload troops and supplies more safely and can use the airfield to project air power.

Thanks for the answer!

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:35 pm
by crsutton
Well, GJ is the final judge. He has a better appreciation of his overall strengths and weaknesses than I do.


RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:06 am
by princep01
Ser Greyjoy, you are being plummeled by advice and observations right now, but I'd only add this. There are other avenues to victory available and you should NOT let despair creep into your planning. A Roman legion could often hold off a howling mob many times its number and you are the Romans here. Stand and bomb him where and when you judge appropriate.

While the airframe situation is a bit alarming, it surely is not unexpected. If nothing else, your experience should pound home the point to the game developer that if the Japas are to be given a free hand for production (especially in scenario 2), then the Allied air pools need to be increased sharply or Japanese air production adjusted. The US could out produce the Japanese by such a margin that they simply would have either increased production, shifted more to the Pacific or both. It is silly to give Japa this production capability and assume the US would have just gone oh-hummm. It sees the developer wants to produce a game that practically ensures the Japs have air equality or superiority.....fat chance in real life.

Sharing this great experience with you and friend,

princepBolton

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:06 am
by GreyJoy
Sorry guys but yesterday evening i was tired like hell and got a bit of temperature so i didn't even stitch on the pc....

Ok, i made up my mind: we stay and fight! I've started to re-organize my air force and after a couple of turns of resting we should be able to fight back again.
I don't really need to LRCAP my beachheads imho...i don't think he will start a air war campaign against my troops....that would expose his fighters to some more slaughter. At the same time i don't think he can push me out....so we'll stay there and we'll grind them down!
Bombers and BBs will keep on bombing and occasionally we'll switch to strat bombing his industries.

For the moment i'n not planning any invasions in other sectors...let's face the truth: by now he must have so many fuel and supplies stockpiled that everything else than honshu would be just a side show....but a sideshow withbgreat risks! You have seeen his numbers....if i invade i'll be counting just on my CVs for cover....would that be enough? Don't think so....

And i have manymmore reinforcements coming down from India....so it's not over yet!

See u later for some updates....


RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:47 am
by cwDeici
With most of his surface navy dead, maybe you can start raiding his tankers more freely with your subs and maybe some of your longer-range surface elements?

Anyway I fully support your decision to not LRCAP the beaches, they'll be fine going by the results so far when under attack and the forts they've put up and the expendable merchant marine.

...

So anyway I did a little calculation of how many times the AC frames Japan is producing compared to America in this scenario 2 campaign vis a vis the comparative OTL strength. According to an article I read the Japanese had numerical superiority over the Americans (and the allies at large?) until 1943 when it reversed.
More importantly so far in this campaign the allies have lost only 18,600 AC compared to the 205% of Japanese losses at 38,200.

This means that Japan can not only cherrypick frames but if Greyjoy is outnumbered say 2:1 then that means if I assume that in real life the allies had maybe 2:1 in numbers of aircraft by 1944, then Japan has eight times (was twice in real life by 1944 (guessing), is twice as much in the game (game), after twice as many casualties (checked)) the aircraft in real life. Of course that's not counting whatever production Japan gets from conquering China and holding India for some time as well as some other territories, if that's enough to matter significantly, but then again I'd be less surprised if the allies outnumbered them more than 2:1 OTL in '44 than that Chinese and Indian AC production mattered.

Scenario 2 is supposed to be more fun for the Japanese player, so what's necessary to balance out the other allied advantages is cherrypicking eight times the frames and nerfing radar? Are there important areas where Japan is significantly weaker than OTL and what is Rader giving up to crank out that many frames?
I'm just kind of in awe when Greyjoy pulls stuff like killing 2,750 in a day at Tokyo then says 'well, this should maybe give me air superiority for two weeks' and then it mostly doesn't, which I can understand now.

Sorry for asking so many questions and I don't have anything against scenario 2.
It makes for a more awesome game as clearly evidenced here! :D

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:26 am
by kfsgo
ORIGINAL: cwDeici

With most of his surface navy dead, maybe you can start raiding his tankers more freely with your subs and maybe some of your longer-range surface elements?

Anyway I fully support your decision to not LRCAP the beaches, they'll be fine going by the results so far when under attack and the forts they've put up and the expendable merchant marine.

...

So anyway I did a little calculation of how many times the AC frames Japan is producing compared to America in this scenario 2 campaign vis a vis the comparative OTL strength. According to an article I read the Japanese had numerical superiority over the Americans (and the allies at large?) until 1943 when it reversed.
More importantly so far in this campaign the allies have lost only 18,600 AC compared to the 205% of Japanese losses at 38,200.

This means that Japan can not only cherrypick frames but if Greyjoy is outnumbered say 2:1 then that means if I assume that in real life the allies had maybe 2:1 in numbers of aircraft by 1944, then Japan has eight times (was twice in real life by 1944 (guessing), is twice as much in the game (game), after twice as many casualties (checked)) the aircraft in real life. Of course that's not counting whatever production Japan gets from conquering China and holding India for some time as well as some other territories, if that's enough to matter significantly, but then again I'd be less surprised if the allies outnumbered them more than 2:1 OTL in '44 than that Chinese and Indian AC production mattered.

Scenario 2 is supposed to be more fun for the Japanese player, so what's necessary to balance out the other allied advantages is cherrypicking eight times the frames and nerfing radar? Are there important areas where Japan is significantly weaker than OTL and what is Rader giving up to crank out that many frames?
I'm just kind of in awe when Greyjoy pulls stuff like killing 2,750 in a day at Tokyo then says 'well, this should maybe give me air superiority for two weeks' and then it mostly doesn't, which I can understand now.

Sorry for asking so many questions and I don't have anything against scenario 2.
It makes for a more awesome game as clearly evidenced here! :D

I have plenty against SC2 as a concept. However, it is worth bearing in mind that for all the accelerated aircraft, ships, LCUs etc, industrial production is not something that changes significantly from SC1 to SC2. There is a very small increase in Japanese industrial (by which think heavy industry, armament assembly) capacity at the start of the scenario, and I don't doubt that most players will choose to expand on that further to an extent using the extra supply available to them. Still, Japan's ability to actually build stuff is not an order of magnitude greater than in SC1 - given increased demands on some sectors (HI for training all those extra pilots, for example) it's probably not increased significantly.

What it does grant, as far as I understand it, is the ability to crew all those aircraft effectively, insofar as the oil and resources don't stop flowing - which, of course, they haven't. This is something that can to an extent be fought - by forcing the Japanese to fight over those parts of Honshu with American troops on them to magnify pilot losses, say - but being on the defensive as they are Japanese pilot losses will not be completely catastrophic unless they're made to do that.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:45 am
by cwDeici
Thanks for the info.
So Rader has a metric -ton of aircraft because GJ hasn't taken the DEI or sunk the tankers & oilers?

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:57 am
by kfsgo
ORIGINAL: cwDeici

Thanks for the info.
So Rader has a metric -ton of aircraft because GJ hasn't taken the DEI or sunk the tankers & oilers?

Basically, yeah. Well - strictly speaking it would have been more help to sink the tankers and oilers six months ago, given that heavy industry points can be stockpiled; still. Whether it's sustainable long-term is a question I can't answer - even the NEI only produces so much fuel, and every industry or aircraft factory point repaired is 1000t of supply, for instance - but, y'know, industry is still getting everything it needs in terms of resources, so...factories keep pumping stuff out.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:38 am
by GreyJoy
God knows that i've tried to interdict his sealanes...since 1942...with my subs...i've tried to place them everywhere from DEI, SRA to the HI...even on the less important routes...japanese air ASW has been deadly...my subs were slaughtered with no mercy...and now his latest "E" class is prooving to be defenetly better than any ASW asset the allies have...every time the pass over a sub they score a kill...just every time!
Jzanez in his other game with Rader experimented the same thing...Rader has developed a system that keeps 99% safe all his routes from subs attacks...there's no way to penetrate there and to kill his tankers. Believe me.
Every single damned base has a dedicated Helen Sentai with 70 ASW skilled crews...and at 1000 feet they are really deadly....and he never moves his tankers in open waters....only shallow ones...under the cover of his ASW assets...
 
Rader has managed to develop an Air army which is much better than the allied ones. Now that he has the SAM for his CVs, he can easily outperform the Hellcats-5 (nearly 20 mph faster) and with the Ki-83 he has a plane that goes faster and higher than a P-47s...in few months he'll be producing 350 Shidens/months (yes, i've calculated the number based on my Recon) and nearly 400 KI-201 (the japanese version of the Me262)...you can draw your conclusions about my overall situation in the air...strat bombing will be nearly impossible against these numbers...we all know that

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:42 am
by GreyJoy
and the latest battle over Aikita, where i lost 800 fighters planes against his 1200, clearly shows that his pilot quality is nowhere close to that vicious spiral we have been talking for months now...Rader is still able to put in his planes crews with enough skill to tangle at equal terms with my fighter army...and the 70% of my fighters are outperformed (Wildcats, Hellcats, P-40, P-39s and, to a certain degree, P-38s)...

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:15 am
by jeffk3510
I think you over estimate his situation this late in the game....his navy is wrecked, and even if he has a lot of AC, his pilot exp HAS to be embarrassing..

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:23 am
by veji1
well if you estimate that he will be able to produce that many planes the course of actions is fairly simple, bomb the crap out of his AC factories... You want to kill his planes on the ground and in the factories before they are even produced. If your beachheads have to become WWI style for 3 months in order for you to achieve global air superiority, than as long as you can supply them, give yourself those 3 months.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:38 pm
by House Stark
Greyjoy, do you have any spare long ranged DDs or obsolete but fast CLs? Rader might have your subs suppressed but if his air force is entirely in the Home Islands some raiding squadrons might be able to wreak havoc on his fuel/resource convoys, as well as kill some ASW ships. It would be pretty low risk, but potentially high reward if his air force is thin in the DEI.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:44 pm
by jeffk3510
Your old USN Omaha class cruisers would be good for this. Not sure how many you have left.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:15 pm
by crsutton
ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

God knows that i've tried to interdict his sealanes...since 1942...with my subs...i've tried to place them everywhere from DEI, SRA to the HI...even on the less important routes...japanese air ASW has been deadly...my subs were slaughtered with no mercy...and now his latest "E" class is prooving to be defenetly better than any ASW asset the allies have...every time the pass over a sub they score a kill...just every time!
Jzanez in his other game with Rader experimented the same thing...Rader has developed a system that keeps 99% safe all his routes from subs attacks...there's no way to penetrate there and to kill his tankers. Believe me.
Every single damned base has a dedicated Helen Sentai with 70 ASW skilled crews...and at 1000 feet they are really deadly....and he never moves his tankers in open waters....only shallow ones...under the cover of his ASW assets...

Rader has managed to develop an Air army which is much better than the allied ones. Now that he has the SAM for his CVs, he can easily outperform the Hellcats-5 (nearly 20 mph faster) and with the Ki-83 he has a plane that goes faster and higher than a P-47s...in few months he'll be producing 350 Shidens/months (yes, i've calculated the number based on my Recon) and nearly 400 KI-201 (the japanese version of the Me262)...you can draw your conclusions about my overall situation in the air...strat bombing will be nearly impossible against these numbers...we all know that

Yes, the Allied sub effort is a no go. I can attest to that from my own experience. Any decent Japanese player can assure the safety of his merchant fleet to the point where the losses are acceptable and Allied sub losses very high. It is a pity and gets me riled when JFBs bitch about the power of the Allied 4Es, when one of the most crucial Allied weapons in WWII is a virtual no show in the game. I would gladly have my bombers nerfed, if they could give me a working sub force.

So DEI oil resources have to be attacked directly-which means every AFB should have some sort of plan to put bombers in range of Japanese oil production no matter what other plans are on the book. Your invasion of Hokkaido has taught us all a lot and taken the Allies where they have not gone before and I think was the perfect move for you. But it also shows that oil and lines of communications are key for Japan as well. By taking India and locking up the Indian Ocean and North OZ, Rader did a great job of protecting his oil. Sooner or later the Allies will get to them but he built a great perimeter to protect them which probably left you little choice but to take the open door that he left you. (I would have done the same, but probably not as boldly..[;)])

The reality is that most of us AFBs won't really get a clean crack at invading Hokkaido. Thus, shutting off the oil flow is key.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:26 pm
by Canoerebel
I have referred to the massive quantities of Japanese aircraft and pilots in AE (presumably restricted to Scenario Two, but it may be more widespread than that) as "Star Wars."
 
Until GJ's game, there were various opinions tossed out that the Star Wars effect was limited by the particular circumstances of each game.  But this game proves that Star Wars is the norm.  If GJ hasn't reduced Japan's capcity to turn out zillions of aiircraft and pilots, then it's not ever going to happen.  GJ has just flat whiped Japan for two years of game time, inflicting staggering losses, but Japan still comes back with vast quantities every turn.
 
So, Star Wars it is.  All who play Scenario Two need to start with this information in mind.  I will always prefer Scenario Two, but I won't play with the idea that I can limit Japan's quantities.  The best I can hope for is to maximize Allied pilot quality so that my air forces can hold their own in the sky. 

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:43 pm
by Nemo121
I disagree with your conclusion CR. several players have forced the IJAAF and IJNAF into a death spiral of pilot experience in Scenario 2. That GJ hasn't done it is, in no way, conclusive proof it cannot be done. To be honest there are many things GJ could have done differently/better to cause tht death spiral but which he hasn't done.

So, you can't look at this game and generalise about what is achievable in Scenario 2 without including those Allied games in which Japan was trounced in 1942 or 1943 and in which the problem of their airforce production and pilot training was solved by Allied players.

cwDeici: that maths is highly suspect being he result of a conclusion built on foundations made of multiple suppositions.


Of note: I haven't stated anything specific at all about in-game advice here, just felt that the conclusions being drawn had reached factually unsupportable levels and needed a counter.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:50 pm
by beppi
I think it is time to "expand" the Allied focus of operation to do the next proper steps. I still think that it is possible to get a solid foothold in norther Japan even if the initial assaults failed. But this will take time, maybe a lot of time. The latest date after which a base in norther Japan is ensured is whenever the soviets activate by their own (so non gamey) and the ETO reinforcements arrive.

Soviets will take half of China (which isnt even "ahistorical") and with that you can cut off any SRA movement just through air.
The allied ETO stuff allows just to break through in northern japan.

But the question is what to do that an earlier foothold in norther japan is possible and how to reduce the restistance of japan.

Some things i assume currently.

1.) I am not sure if the Japanese mainland "swims" in resources and Oil. It is not that easy to move the stuff back home and especially there isnt enough oil production to suddenly create a large stockpile back at home. Is it even possible to expand HI to a point raeder did and still have a surplus in oil production ?

2.) There might be a decent HI reserve, but that too is just speculation. I am not a japanese SCEN 2 economy expert but the question i ask myself if it is possible to build that much planes AND build a solid HI reserve. From my point of view it is that you can produce massive amounts of planes if you do not conserve a lot of HI for the reserve.

I think next to all operations similiar to the ones the last few months small style operations which gain a lot should be considered. I mean reader has pulled back almost all stuff back to japan, how is the situation in India, how in the SRA ? How well defended are the Marians/Iwo Jima/Rabaul+Kaviewng area ? To further reduce the Japanese fighting capabilities there have to be some additional operations.

Everything else will just result in the "style" Greyjoy did not want to play. Just sit and Bomb changed to Just sit and Bomb with 3 beachheads in Japan.

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:05 pm
by HansBolter
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have referred to the massive quantities of Japanese aircraft and pilots in AE (presumably restricted to Scenario Two, but it may be more widespread than that) as "Star Wars."

Until GJ's game, there were various opinions tossed out that the Star Wars effect was limited by the particular circumstances of each game.  But this game proves that Star Wars is the norm.  If GJ hasn't reduced Japan's capcity to turn out zillions of aiircraft and pilots, then it's not ever going to happen.  GJ has just flat whiped Japan for two years of game time, inflicting staggering losses, but Japan still comes back with vast quantities every turn.

So, Star Wars it is.  All who play Scenario Two need to start with this information in mind.  I will always prefer Scenario Two, but I won't play with the idea that I can limit Japan's quantities.  The best I can hope for is to maximize Allied pilot quality so that my air forces can hold their own in the sky. 

and what this tells me is that no AFB in his right mind (who isn't a masochist) should EVER agree to play the JFB wetdream scenario that #2 represents.....at least NOT without a compensating factor, the only one of which the game offers is not using historical torpedo duds for the US, nor should he ever agree to any limitations on the use of 4Es