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Did you take a land base? You really need a local airbase to put army air on. Naval aircraft and pilot pools can't keep up this pace of attrition, can they?

This is great stuff, Dan!  Very exciting and entertaining for those of us that are casual observers.  [8D]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Did you take a land base? You really need a local airbase to put army air on. Naval aircraft and pilot pools can't keep up this pace of attrition, can they?

Yes, I took Toyahara on Sakhalin Island. I should be able to transfer a squadron of P-38s there from Tori Shima; I doubt my Corsairs have the range to make it. I should take Sapporo tomorrow and I'm pretty sure my Corsairs can make it there.

No, I cannot continue to take any more carrier-based air losses. I have no strike aircraft left and just 100 Hellcats. I "think" John's carriers are now running low (both aircraft and sorties most likely). I hope i can put into port and replinish under the protection of LBA. If, for some reason, that is impossible, I would probably try to get my carries back to Midway. But I think I can do it.

Still haven't looked at the file, but one other important detail occurred to me.

With Musashi and Yamato down at Sumatra, with four Jap BBs sunk already, with Hiei crippled at Iwo and Ise taking a TT there, I think that leaves John with just a BB or two up north (Kongo is there, and I think Mutsu also).  The U.S. Navy should be able to outgun the Japanese Navy.  The Allies have two fast BB and at least five slow ones.  If I can get my carrier squadrons replenished quickly, and if I can get an Hokkaido airfield operational and staffed by a base force quickly, I think I will have the upper hand and might be able to prevent John from retaking the Hokkaido bases. 

Also, Sappporo is a level 9 port.  I have an ML on the way, but it will have a periolous course in reaching Hokkaido.  It's trying to hide in Arctic snow squalls.

I think the odds of success have increased from 10% to 50%.

Man...

You're killing me.

I've been on pins and needles since this offensive started.

I notice that this time around, with your planning blackout in the forums, that your opponent was taken completely by surprise. No "coincidental" reinforcements...

It makes one wonder.

Anyway, this is a gutsy offensive, and while it's been expensive in terms of merchant shipping, if you can hang in and see it though your opponent is going to be in a world of hurt.

Nice Job!

Good luck.

December 10 was indeed a great day for the Allies, but it has left my carriers without fighter protection, so now I face momentous decisions.  Some highlights:
 
1.  The Battle of Port Blair/Malacca Straits was a great Allied victory.  The Allies lost two DDs and may lose a third.  BBs Revenge and Resolution only suffered moderate damage and are fine, barring bad luck (subs) on the way to Trincomalee.  The Japs have thus far lost BB Musashi, CL Tenyru, and two DDs.  Yamato to a "critical damage" hit to the engine room, but made it more than half way back to Sabang, so she probably has but light damage.  The RN rocks.
 
2.  Up north, CV Hancock is worse off than I had anticipated.  The three bombs have left her with high-end moderate damage; CVL Bataan with light-end moderate damage; BB Mississippi with moderate damage.  My other CVs remain in good shape, with plenty of AA, but I'm down to just 100 Hellcats (arg!).
 
3.  The KB moved aggressively last turn, just north of the Kuriles.  John has lost over 1000 carrier aircraft in this battle.  Can he easily bring in reinforcements from Japan, or not?  Are his carriers running low on mission sorties after a week of combat, or not?  Crucial question and the truth is, I'm not sure.
 
4.  If my carriers could replenish fighters, I would win this battle.  I transfered a small Hellcat squadron (just five planes left in it) from a CVE to Toyahara, my pretty new base.  Sadly, the game would not let me draw replacements for this squadron.  I'm not sure why, but that is very bad news.  What if I send my CVs to Toyahara to get them in position to replenish, but they too can't?  The KB is right there, so it could be carnage.
 
5.  I transferred a P-38 squadron from Tori Shima to Toyahara even though the latter doesn't yet have a base force.  It can fight for a turn or two.  Might spook John a bit too.
 
6.  If I KNEW the KB still had plenty of aircraft and mission sorties, I think it would have to get my CVs out of the area - possibly to Kiska or Adak where they should be able to replenish, and where there will soon be some LBA fighter cover.  If my CVs had fighters, I would ABSOLUTELY stick around, work out the replenishment issues, and win this battle big.  If I KNEW the Japs were low on carrier aircraft or missions sorties, I would keep my CVs in the area, taking the chance that I could draw reinforcement aircraft. 
 
7.  So what do I do?  Send my carriers fleing for Alaska?  Or stick around to maximize what chance I have to win this battle.  I can win the land battle if my carriers can fight.  But I don't know if I have the time to get them replenished and whether replenishment is going to work from Toyahara and/or the base to the north (which I should take tomorrow).
 
What to do?

Toyohara is probably out of f6f transfer range from an allied base capable of resupplying them (20k supplies or area HQ) so it is highly likely that you won't gain any replacements there.

I think your critical thing here is that you get an airbase up and running asap.

If you can get your LBA into the game at this point, your chances of winning this one go way up. If you keep having to rely on naval air, you're going to run out of airframes and pilots, even IF you get a resupply base up and running.

Seems like you've got an airbase right now, but no base force .

Is there ANY way you can get a base force to Toyahara? Air transport, fast transport, sub transport, etc? Get a baseforce up there, 100 corsairs, and some naval attack craft and suddenly the IJN has to keep away.

There are base forces in the area, but it's a bit of a complicated dance that will take time and I think I'm running short on that:
 
1)  The middle base on Sakhalin Island (Shikara?) is a level one airbase that I should take this turn.  I already have on the ground base force personnel capable of handling 50 aircraft.  I also have crated aircraft and a big aviation regiment on transports in this port (which is the most remote port furthest from Jap airfields and the KB).  So, I should take Shikara this turn and that will allow me to transfer in fighters, unload some transports (Dakotas), and unload that aviation regiment, which I could then air transport to various places.  If I get some control of the seas, I could also transfer personnel by fast transport.
 
2)  Toyohara is a big airbase (I think level 6 right now) without a base force.  I will try to get personnel here from Sakhalin Island asap.  I have about 22 P-38s and 5 Hellcats there this turn, and they will provide some air cover.  I think I'll send a stout combat TF here, too, in case John does the same.
 
3)  I should take Sapporo (level 9 port and big airfield) tomorrow.  No base force on the ground here (as explained earlier, the aviation regiment came ashore at Hakodate).  If I take Sapporo, I will move a unit to the hex between Hakodate and Sapporo.  That may allow me to then "retreat" that aviation regiment to Sapporo. 
 
4)  Sounds like I can't replenish Hellcats anytime soon (unless Sapporo or Shikhara has more supplies than I expect).  However, I think if I evacuate my carriers now that the Japs would descend on my forces like a plague of locusts and eliminate my chances of stabilizing the area long before my carriers could get back. 
 
5)  So I think I may send my CVs north again.  They should be out of danger at least for a day and that will allow me to take Sapporo and Shikhara and to then further evaluate the situation.  Too, if the KB retreats toward a Japanese port to replenish, that might give me a window to try resupplying ship ammo in a port and to see if I can draw replacement aircraft.  If the KB continues aggressive...well, I don't know what I'll do yet.
 
6)  In summary, P-38s and a small detachment of Hellcats provide cover for some combat ships at Toyohara.  The Allies take Shakhara and hope to get crated fighters, transports, and an aviation regiment unloaded.  And I take Sapporo and figure out if that offers me help soon.
 
If I my carriers had Hellcats, I think my odds of success here would be at least 75%.  Right now I'd put it at 25%.

with all the carrier aircraft lost I wonder if you still habe USN pilots left in the pool?

Update:  That is the plan I have adopted.  The U.S. carriers steam north four hexes and will take station a little mor than halfway between Shakhara and Okha.  One big combat TF will go to Sakharin to protect the transports and cargo unloading there.  No CAP for these folks.  Another big combat TF will go to Toyahara with P-38s and a small Hellcat squadron providing CAP. 
 
Honestly, this turn could be the end for the Allies; or it could be the dawn of a new day.
 
I have lost scores - hundreds - of transports.  That, combined with the vast numbers of transports John sank in Australia (when he had them trapped in a corner of the map) means I won't be able to do another amphibious operation in the Pacific for months.  That's okay if I hold Hokkaido (and Sakhalin), as all I need in that event is supplies, and that I can handle.  If I take and keep those bases up there, the American forces will operation from there, the Aussies will take care of Australia (and eventually places like Suva and New Caledonia), and the British Empire and Chinese should make good progress in Sumatra and Malaya.  IE, I think I can win the war.  But I'm very worried about the situation up north.
 
 

ORIGINAL: castor troy

with all the carrier aircraft lost I wonder if you still habe USN pilots left in the pool?

I certainly think so. We haven't had much carrier combat for many months, so the pools should be very large by now. I think he's lost more carrier aircraft than I have in this battle now. I wonder how he's doing?

But what I really need to know is whether his carriers are low on mission sorties. Five or six days now of heavy carrier operations. When my Royal Navy CVs chased and sank that Mini-KB in the Indian Ocean earlier this year, I was running low on sorties after three or four days of launches. Surely he is. (What I mean to say is, "I hope he is.")

Edit: I currently have 4500 Navy pilots in my pool, and even more Army and Marine pilots. So those are fine. But noticed that the RAF only has 11 pilots in the pool!

A few days ago, one poster suggested that I concentrate on a land campaign in southeast Asia. I replied, explaining some of the reasons I preferred a series of amphibious operations, but I omitted one of the most important.

By employing the Royal Navy and transports in a big way - in large numbers with ambitious undertakings - it draws John's full attention and creates a sitaution where he perceives a need to call on his own navy and airforce to counter the Allied operations. I definately want to promote conditions in which John has a pressing need to use his naval and air power "down there." The recent Japanese "raid" on Port Blair, which became a big Allied victory, is a perfect example.

Were I to concentrate on a land campaign against Bangkok, John could send most of his combat ships up to Hokkaido. Having Yamato and Musashi near Sumatra helps alot. And now Musashi is no more.

ORIGINAL: sjohnson

Hi there,

First time posting in your AAR but, as I am sure many others are, I have been following your game for a while.  I like the go for broke strategy and you seem to have caught John off guard in some areas.  Strategically you have surprised him, yet, why Hakodate/Sapporo?  It would be a nice coup-de-main, but, hard to reinforce and hold.

It seems to me that if Sakhalin is poorly guarded then why not reinforce this move, if not throw everything at it as well as the other Kurile islands that look like they may be up for grabs.

This would:
1) secure one flank of your forces (the N/NW) with russian territory
2) give you a good LOC back to the west coast through the aleutians, alaska, and canadian coast - all of which can base airpower for scouting and convoy cover
3)  provide you sufficient bases (you can build up the lvl 0 aflds to lvl 3 which is good enough for fighters and light attack craft) for airpower and heavies in Sakhalin to bomb Japan
4)  provide you with good sub bases in the Japanese home islands with little risk - meaning most of your damaged subs will have a good chance of makiing it to a port; and note the allied sub force builds up quickly in numbers in mid 44 onwards
5)  forces John to honor the threat of additional invasions and disperse airpower, etc. to Northern Japan
6)  allows you to redeploy your carriers back to Iwo/CPac regions and provide a continual threat with multiple areas to strike

Lastly on a strategic side, if he has really pulled as many troops out of China as it appears and your Burma forces continue to advance - as opposed to advancing down malaya and even into Indochina and slogging out against fort lines in malaria terrain - why not use air transport assets and start shifting supply and forces into China for a drive to the coast somewhere - getting lvl 5 airbases within range of Formosa giving you the ability to interdict shipping skirting the coast into south-west Japan.

12/11/43
 
I am just beginning the combat replay, but wanted to post this in several parts as so much happened on the 11th.
 
Combat TF Tangles with the KB:  You will recall that I had two combat TFs, one each heading to Toyahara and Shikuka.  On the way, one of the TFs (flagged by BB Washington) would head to a point just above the Kuriles where I thought the KB might take station.  I guessed right and a series of battle erupted.  It could have been an incredible victory for the Allies, but my ships primarily hit escorts.  (Note:  Each of the Jap CV TFs is escorted only by a handful of DDs - John had apparently stripped many other DDs and CAs to form his surface combat TFs that he is using to raid Toyahara and Shikuka).
 
1)  TF vs. KB Round One:  The Allied TF closes with a TF comprised of DDs, CV Taiho, CVL Chitose, and CVL Chiyoda.  The Allies cripple or sink Chiyoda and five DDs.
 
2)  TF vs. KB Round Two:  The Allies get a few hits on CV Hiryu doing light damage, miss Soryu, and cripple or damage three DDs.
 
3)  TF vs. KB Round Three:  CVL Zuiho and CVEs Taiyo and Kaiyo take a few hits doing probably no more than light damage; no its on CVE Shinyo; two DDs sunk or crippled.
 
4)  TF v. KB Round Four:  CVE Chuyo takes light damage with other CVEs and CVLs (including Ryujo) escaping.  Three DDs are sunk or crippled.
 
During all of this, the Allied combat TFs took a few hits, including a torpedo or two.
 
Impact:  The Allies just missed scoring a great victory.  But my combat ships pay for it later in the day due to LBA strikes (I think Washington will take 6 TTs and go down if memory serves).  I still think John's carriers have to be running low on mission sorties; that and these events may spook him, too.  I suspect he'll have to get the KB out of harm's way, so if the Allied carriers are ever going to try to make port and replenish, tomorrow will be the day.
 
I'll post more about the day's events later.  It was not a good day for Allied combat ships and transports, but the Allied carriers weren't hit.

Update:  I will give more information about the day's events.  It was a pretty good day for the Allies, mainly because of the surface combat battle with the KB, but one thing became absolutely clear, casting a great shadow over everything.  Although the Allies now have Sapporo, Toyahara, Shikaku, and two of the Kuriles, it is clear that I do not have the supplies to replenish my carrier aircraft squadrons (I brought plenty of supplies, but too many ships have gone under, and too much has been expended in landings, etc.).
 
This means I have to try to extract my carriers now.  That in and of itself will not be easy.  I'm not sure whether I'll make for Midway, the Aleutians, or Iwo Jima.  If my carriers make it, I might be able to return and try to salvage something, but at the moment I doubt I'll be able to hold anything except the gains in the Aleutians.
 
The Allies will have suffered a great defeat, although several times I came closer to victory than I deserved.  When and if I get my carriers out of there, I'll be able to evaluate the situation to see if I can recover from my losses.  My initial guess is that it is worth continuing the game (as long as my carriers survive) because the Japs have taken tremendous losses too, especially in aircraft and destroyers.

Hokaido is an island, neh? So the only way he can reinforce it is by sea. Get aircraft onto those bases ASAP and he'll be invading you for once, and have to fight through your LBA to get there.

Likewise, I'd retreat east rather than south. East gets you away from the LBA on the home islands faster doesn't it? With only 100 or so hellcats left, you need to get out of the danger envelope fast. Seems like you can deal with 1 more strike and take acceptable losses. Second mass strike will kill your carriers though.

So start building a resupply convoy now at midway, run the carriers back, replenish, and fight it back in. It's a low probability play I think, but at least it gives you an opportunity to win. If you just cut and run now, I suspect he retakes Hokaido and it's game over.

I would say head for Anchorage or Dutch Harbor (if you enough supply there) and stay in the bad weather. Franklin, if she is still afloat, will have to be detached. Maybe she can hug the Siberian coast?

Get your units back from Hakodate if you lack the power to capture it..reinforce Sapporo and take Asahikawa. Mine the heck out of Sapporo and bring in mostly fighters, whatever your supply and aviation support will permit. If you lose all your land forces ashore, you will certainly go down in flames. Leave some kind of surface force behind.

Maybe you can form an air transport bridge over the Aleutians. Find some transports, then come back with supply and your carriers.

And if Admiral King or General Marshall calls, have your secretary tell them you aren't in. [:)]

Wow!!!

Can hardly wait for the next update.  may just camp here all day!!!

Okay, folks, I was wrong.  I might be able to unload 30 or 40k supplies at Shikuka, the middle base on Sikhalin Island.  I also have base forces there and can put in LBA and also some LBA from Toyahara.  Plus I'll have some big combat TFs there.  So is it worth trying to dock my carriers there to replenish?  Is there any reason that I couldn't replenish aircraft squadrons on my carriers at a Level 4 port that had, say, 35,000 supplies?
 
As stated, I believe I win this battles if my carriers are fully functional.  So I'm not retreating (but now I have to return to the turn file and issue orders for everything to go to Shikuka; I had most ships heading SE toward Midway, though I might have sent my carriers to the Aleutians).

Okay, folks, I say stay and fight to the finish unless somebody tells me I can't replenish at Shikuka for some strange reason.

Edit: I just checked the transports in and very close to Shikuka. I think I might have as much as 100k supplies ready to unload. My first step was to transfer two P-38J squadrons from Harbin, China, to Shikuka (I had moved them there from Burma and vicinity yesterday). Shikuka is a level four port, level one airfield, so it can only base 50 aircraft. Everything, and I mean everything, is going there. My carriers will arrive overnight. There will be two big combat TFs there. And lots and lots of supplies unloading. The second big step will be to transfer a bunch of PBY Liberator squadrons to Sapporo (level 6 airfield, but no base support) to see if I can surprise some Jap ships.

The Japs have three BBs (Nagato, Mutsu, Kongo) operating here, but I think my combat TFs can handle them for awhile. The question is whether Jap bombers will catch my carriers in port. I still think Jap CVs may retire (due to low missions sorties and their recent unpleasant encounter with BB Washington and friends). There is no doubt in my mind that this is the right move. I feel so sure of the "right course of action" now that even if it turns out badly I will feel like I gave it everything I had.

ORIGINAL: pat.casey
Hokaido is an island, neh? So the only way he can reinforce it is by sea.

Or by air.

And its an island wholly under basically as big a Japanese air umbrella as its possible to have, with Jap supply lines of length 0. The whole IJ air force can be on him if need be.



I think its long odds myself, but still. Riveting stuff!