Disaster in the making. Oloren (axis) vs Terje (USSR)

[terje439]

Well, there are a few "unthouchable" Axis stacks, those I cannot atttack without suffering close to 1:5 in losses at best.
As to the low attack count this turn, alot of the Axis retreats were east of the Don, and after moving across the Don to follow up, and then passing through 2 "red" hexes, my units did not have enough MP left to make any attacks.

About Axis victory, think I first predicted that at the end of -43 [;)]

That being said, there are some bright spots as well;
-From Tula and south, most of the enemy units are 1-3 CV units, and they are now out of forts.
-The Axis is forced to spend panzer divisions on the frontline just to hold the front.
-The shortening front seem to be more of a help for me at the moment as it gives me a handful of reserve stacks to use to exploit any openings.

Prediction;
-the southern flank of the Axis line will crumble (then I must decide wether to destroy the Rumanian units on the map or try to flip them later)
-game will end with me around the Polish border and an Axis win
-I will have learned alot of what NOT to do as the USSR [:D]

Terje

[Peltonx]

I have nothing but respect for you to play this out as you have, most players would have quit and learnt nothing about what to do from 43 -44.

I am sure you will do much better your next game.

A draw is still possible as there are 63 turns left. Your enemy could still make a few mistakes which could be his undoing.

I do not think you can get a minor victory, but you still have a shot at a draw for sure. You only need to keep him under 39 VP's. Take a clear look at the VP's he needs and what you need to do to get it under 39. Then start now going after the citys you must take to get a draw. Looks possible to me.

I agree M60 the late war key seems to be mid-war AP pts. A lack of them from late 42 - late 43 causes the Russian army to be not able to build the right mix of units needed to grind down then exploit the weakened german army.

Pelton

[terje439]

Thank you once more for kind words.

Well, I believe I lost the game per ce in -42. I lost way too many units, and I also played it poorly during -43 when I kept trying to save corps formation and thereby losing more corps in the process.

So far what I have learnt is;
1. Every unit can be spared, but throwing more units to be destroyed alongside the one is bad.
2. To withstand the Axis assault you cannot rely on forts, the Axis attacking power is too great. Instead belts of sacrificial units are better.
3. You must plan for the winter of -41 in advance, espesially in terms of building up some units in the rear so they are ready when the winter arrives.
4. When you think you have enough artillery counters on the map, you do NOT.
5. USSR TACs and FBs die in droves.
6. A few house rules are needed (as they are in most pbem strategy games).
7. Never trust a USSR division to be able to hold anything.
8. The USSR has a great ability to recover, but do not get overly confident in this ability.
9. The USSR rifle corps are good at making the initial attack and force an enemy retreat, but they are quite inable to keep an offense.
10. A mobile reserve that is not tied up at the front (like my HQ Zhukov is atm) is a very nice thing to have.
11. Mechanized corps kick a**!
12. SUs are a must
13. Germans do not rout.
14. The USSR can support alot more tank troops than I have built in this game.
15. Watching the TOE % is a must.


Terje

[Seminole]

I do not think you can get a minor victory, but you still have a shot at a draw for sure. You only need to keep him under 39 VP's. Take a clear look at the VP's he needs and what you need to do to get it under 39.

It takes a lot.  In my Soviet win against the AI I had captured Berlin and was still trying to drive him below 39 VP to end the game for a few weeks after.

[Seminole]

13. Germans do not rout.

If you cut off a German unit and then force it to retreat in the same turn it routs.  Does this cause the corresponding loss (men, equipment, morale) that one would see in a battle result of 'routed'?

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

13. Germans do not rout.

If you cut off a German unit and then force it to retreat in the same turn it routs.  Does this cause the corresponding loss (men, equipment, morale) that one would see in a battle result of 'routed'?

True, but I was thinking more in the way the early USSR and the Rumanian units rout. Directly off the line.

Terje

[Seminole]

True, but I was thinking more in the way the early USSR and the Rumanian units rout. Directly off the line.

Understand, I'm just actually asking if it does the same thing.
I'm in my third week of the '41 winter and have a chance to do that do some German units.  Should I 'rout' them this way, or focus harder on getting them isolated and surrendered?

I ask because 15.9.4. EFFECT OF ROUTING states: "Routed units do not receive replacements."

That might be worthwhile, on top of retreat attrition, especially with first winter rules.  Particularly weighed against the odds of obtaining and holding a genuine encirclement.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

True, but I was thinking more in the way the early USSR and the Rumanian units rout. Directly off the line.

Understand, I'm just actually asking if it does the same thing.
I'm in my third week of the '41 winter and have a chance to do that do some German units.  Should I 'rout' them this way, or focus harder on getting them isolated and surrendered?

I ask because 15.9.4. EFFECT OF ROUTING states: "Routed units do not receive replacements."

That might be worthwhile, on top of retreat attrition, especially with first winter rules.  Particularly weighed against the odds of obtaining and holding a genuine encirclement.

That, is a question for those that actually know what they are doing [;)]

Terje

[terje439]

Turn 163

Overall
This time the Axis had not fallen back, and the number of attacks made by us went back up. This time we manage a total of 31 attacks, scoring 10 held and 21 retreats. Unfortunately only 2 of the held results knocked down the fortification level of the target hex, and also not too good, 3 of our attacks increased enemy defensive CV by 2-5 points.
Losses are given at;
Axis : 66.000 troops and 231 AFVs
USSR : 129.000 troops and 764 AFVs. Of the AFVs, aproxomately 450 were lost in "held" results...
166.000 workers report to the manpower pool, ending it at 9.155.

Units
6 TACs were sent to the reserves.
We form 2 rifle corps (and found out that division+guard division+guard brigade does not equal guard corps), and order the creation of 3 mechanized brigades and 3 breakthrough artillery divisions.
Our forces claim a net growth of 54.000 troops this turn.

Partisans
The Axis chase away 6 units, leaving 25 on the board. The remaining units perform 7 sabotage actions this turn, and are rewarded by a mere 4 supply drops.

Edit
All the "empty" hexes below are retreat results, they are not left open because I do not want to advance, but because I lack the MP to do so.

[M60A3TTS]

If you're still taking screenie requests, can I see the guards rifle corps sorted by morale? You should be at a NM of 60 and I'm curious how the best of your elite units compare to that.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

If you're still taking screenie requests, can I see the guards rifle corps sorted by morale? You should be at a NM of 60 and I'm curious how the best of your elite units compare to that.

Will reload and make another screenie, saw the request after I did the turn. Gimme a minute after the next post and it should be here


Terje

[terje439]

Turn 164

Overall
We keep on pushing. In the far south the Germans and Rumanians try to throw us back across the Don, but they suffer a held result for their effort. We launch 34 attacks this turn, and score 12 held and 22 retreats. I am also wondering if the Germans are working together with the mole people, as they manage to build from fortification level 2 to 3 in one turn in alot of places...Nevertheless we keep on pushing, bypassing harder targets (I'm hex-hopping while the US is island-hopping in the Pacific...) and try to force the Axis to keep pulling back in some areas. We are now one hex from Moscow and Tula, but the going is slow in those two areas. It seems more likely the front will crack in the area Voronezh-Rostov.
Losses are given at;
Axis : 71.000 troops and 206 AFVs
USSR : 130.000 troops and 665 AFVs.

Units
3 LBs, 1 RC, 9 TACs are sent to the reserves this turn. Damn those unions [:'(]
We form one tank corps and one mechanized corps. Since this leaves us with 28 points, we do not build artillery this turn, but instead create 2 rifle divisions and 1 rifle brigade.
Our forces show a net growth of 63.000 troops for this turn.

Partisans
24 remain after 7 run away. The remaining must all be scared, because they only managed 2 acts of sabotague this turn. The number of supply drops increases to 8 though.

[terje439]

As requested

[juret]

nice 80morale mech corp elite unit for sure

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: juret

nice 80morale mech corp elite unit for sure

12 CV with 61% TOE, I would have to agree [;)]

Terje

[terje439]

Turn 165

Overall
The Axis fall back in 95% of the front, this presents us with a difficulty in launching alot of attacks as most of our rifle corps simply lack the MP to move three hexes and launch an attack. We do manage a total of 21 attacks though, scoring 3 held and 18 retreats. We also estimate that Tula will fall next turn. Since the Axis left 4 Rumanians as speedbumbers in the Don area, we have completely surrounded two divisions there, and partially surrounded two more.
The losses report state as follows:
Axis : 57.000 troops and 220 AFVs
USSR : 83.000 troops and 469 AFVs
A total of 175.000 workers report to the manpower pool, ending it at 2.000.

Units
We sent 9 TACs and 1 LB to the reserves, as their morale has dropped alot in the last turn.
We form one mechanized corps and order the construction of 2 cavalry divisions this turn.
Our army grew by 97.000 troops this turn.

Liberation
Cherepovets is liberated this turn.

Partisans
We have 25 units on the map after the Axis only chased away 4 units this turn. Our guys managed 4 sabotague missions, but are nevertheless given a whole 10 supply drops this turn.

[Peltonx]

I am guessing he is trading space for time. He can easly withdraw a good 27 to 42 hexes in some areas just to get to rivers and the western side of your picture, which will pull you a good distance from railheads. If he plans it right he stop about blizzard time and you be very limited in good attacks because you be low on supplies.

OR

With only 40 movement turns (plus 20 mud turns) left he can basicly with draw 2 to 3 hexes per turn and still be a good distance from German June 1941 border and get atleast a minor German victory.

Smart move on his part. While his army is still strong to start a fighting with drawal.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

Not many have made it this far, but those German players who have, have generally fought and died forward, and only retreat when forced to. This is interesting to do a planned withdrawl, and might be smart.

Leaving Axis Allied units behind to die, though, isn't smart. He did that before with Hungarians, which is even worse. I don't get that at all.

I can see doing that with Italians who are about to withdraw anyway, but that's it.

[terje439]

Yes, I agree with both of you.
He has alot of ground to trade and still get a victory, and it might preserve his units
About those Rumanians; I found it only fair to give him the information I got in my AAR that destroyed units will be denied to me if Rumania flips, so he might decide he wants to keep on slowing me down with them to extract the much more valuable Germans and Hungarians. His problem in the south is that the few German units down there are badly depleted, and I think he might fear what will happen if he has to rely on the Rumanians to hold his south flank alone.

Anyway, think we will get a clearer picture with the next few turns.


Terje

[juret]

axis minors are perfect for digging. waste of him sacrifise them. A small win for terje and might make it little easier to press on. Axis minors units dont respawn.