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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 24. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. (The AGC screenshot will again be skipped due to inaction).

The Ukrainian offensive was halted without further attacks. I felt that, with the blizzard phase about to start, it was too risky to keep driving for little hope of VP gain. The Axis needed to attend to defensive positioning.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 13 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 13 were denied due to German capture. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed. The last of the RR units were withdrawn, ending rail repair for the winter.

[center]Turn 25[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 25. The blizzard phase has begun and the Axis now suffer a 25% shock penalty plus a 3% pestilence penalty. There were too many German units reorganizing to continue any attacks. Nevertheless, the Soviets were forced to send the 3rd Shock Army to this sector, joining the 2nd Shock Army. That will probably end any hopes of the offensive continuing, but it has served its purpose.

Meanwhile, the Soviets tried an offensive of their own down between Moscow and Smolensk. Two full-strength armies (attack strengths ~ 39) attacked one German corps. The corps turned out to be supported by an Army HQ and the results were a disaster for the Soviets. One army evaporated and the other was reduced to half strength. The German corps was reduced somewhat, but remained in place and fortified. The soviets had to sub-divide a nearby army to fill the gap created by the evaporated one.

Readers may have felt that I’ve been too passive with the Soviets up to this point. But this episode illustrates how poor they are at attacking. Relative combat strengths can be deceiving.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 25. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference.

No action by either side took place in this sector. Neither side could risk a disaster, since both are sitting on expensive territory. And it should be obvious from the Soviet attacks near Smolensk that supported German positions are very costly to attack. And the German positions here are not just supported by HQs, but also by CS air. Note that the Romanians went into Garrison deployment this turn. I had anticipated that when I halted the offensive in the Krasnodar sector earlier.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 11 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 13 were denied due to German capture. There was one new Soviet cadre, and it was destroyed.

[center]Turn 26[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 26. The presence of both the 2nd & 3rd Shock armies has stabilized the front for the Soviets. That will shut down the German’s offensive. But, after last turn’s attack disaster, the Soviets aren’t likely to take the offensive either. So, this sector should be quiet for the remainder of the game. The Germans are the winners here, though, since they’ve occupied those two shock armies in this defense, rather than permit them to be used elsewhere in an offense.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 26. There was no new action here, but I just wanted to show that the 4th (and last) shock army was sent here, in hopes of regaining Voronezh.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 26. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference.

No attacks by either side took place in this sector for the same reasons as last turn. But note that Soci (bottom of map) has been left undefended by the Axis and will soon be retaken by the Soviets.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 14 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 12 were denied due to German capture. The Atlantic Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were no new Soviet cadres.

[center]Turn 27[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 27. Note the microscreen in the SW corner for reference.

No frontline attacks by either side took place anywhere. But I’m showing this sector to note that the Soviets have repositioned forces for an approaching attempt to retake Voronezh. Meanwhile, Soci has been retaken by the Soviets as predicted last turn (not shown).

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 13 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 13 were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were two new Soviet cadres and both were destroyed – one involved a huge air battle that the Soviets lost.

[center]Turn 28[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 28. Note the microscreen in the SW corner for reference.

No frontline attacks by either side took place anywhere. But the Soviets have continued repositioning forces for a last-turn attempt to retake Voronezh.

Of the 34 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 11 were manually disbanded, 7 were auto-disbanded, and 16 were denied due to German capture. There were two new Soviet cadres and both were destroyed – again with an air battle that the Soviets lost.

[center]Turn 29[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 29. Note the microscreen in the SW corner for reference. This is guaranteed to be the last turn, and the Soviet player gets to play last. That’s an edge too irresistible to pass up.

The Soviets finally launched their last-turn attempt to retake Voronezh. Unlike the attempt at Smolensk, earlier, this one was well supported by HQs & CS air. And the ground assault force was proportionately greater as well. But there was Axis HQ & CS air support, too. The result was another disaster. After the attack, all the Soviet air was reorganizing, as were some of the assaulting armies. The Soviets had even suffered slightly higher proportional (37% vs 30%) ground losses as well. The German defenders hadn’t even been knocked out of fortified deployment. I felt a second attempt would be an even greater disaster, so the follow-up attempt was canceled.

The two failed efforts at Soviet offensives illustrate that the Soviets need the Axis to first shatter their forces in their last offensive efforts for the Soviets to have a chance to launch a winter counteroffensive. Since I shut down all offensive efforts and prepped for defense with them, they were in condition to repulse even the best Soviet efforts.

There were no more manpower levy units scheduled after turn 28. There was one new Soviet cadre and it was destroyed.

[center]Victory Message[/center]

The game ends automatically at the end of turn 29 and victory is determined. The attached screenshot shows the victory message. The result was a draw. The final total was 34 in the Axis favor (the draw boundary is at 200). But note that if I had not stupidly left the Leningrad 2 factory in Leningrad after releasing it, it wouldn’t have been destroyed, and the Germans would have had 27 less VPs, making the final total 7 in the Axis favor.

The attached file is the movie of the game using the Axis player-turn saves. So most of the Soviet force is usually invisible due to fog-of-war.

Similarly, the attached file is the movie of the game using the Soviet player-turn saves. So most of the Axis force is usually invisible due to fog-of-war.

[center]Loss Penalty[/center]

Now let’s do some statistical analysis. The attached screenshot charts the loss penalties over the course of the game. The red line is for the Soviets, and the blue line is for the Axis. Remember that replacements reduce the loss penalty, explaining how both lines often decrease, especially the Soviets, due to their huge replacement edge. The biggest losses occurred at the start. Then losses slacked off, until the second defense line was reached. Then they slacked off again for the mud phase, then picked up again for the frost phase. And they finally slacked off for the blizzard phase (not so much the Axis, due to the pestilence) except for the final failed attack.

[center]Squad Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts squad losses (everything in the equipment list up to machine guns). The gridlines are 50,000 squads. The Axis initial-shock, proficiency, and organizational edges account for their better results here. But this is still the most favorable chart for the Soviets. They can better afford these sorts of losses. You can clearly see the flat spots in the curves during the mud and blizzard phases. The Soviets losses during the mud phase were due to the unsupplied forces in Leningrad and the Axis losses during the blizzard phase were due to pestilence.

[center]Light Weapon Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts light weapon losses (machine guns, AT guns, light guns, mortars, AAA guns). The gridlines are 10,000 weapons. The chart partly reflects that the Soviets had to defend with much of their rear-area elements out of desperation. But this can also be attributed to the same Axis edges mentioned under the squad loss chart.

[center]Artillery Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts artillery losses. The gridlines are 2,000 weapons. This chart reflects the fact both that Soviet HQs often came under attack, and that a higher proportion of Soviet artillery was retained in the frontline elements.

[center]Transport Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts transport (horse teams, trucks, APCs, ferries) losses. Also, I merged the Scout Car losses with this chart, since the Soviets don’t have any. About half of the Axis “Transport” losses shown were actually scout cars. The gridlines are 10,000 vehicles. Again, the higher exposure of Soviet rear-area elements is reflected in this chart.

[center]AFV Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts AFV (armored cars, SPAT, Tanks) losses. The gridlines are 2,000 vehicles. Among other things, this chart reflects that the Axis losses were focused on their armored elements, by choice, as the attackers.

[center]Aircraft Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts Aircraft losses. The gridlines are 2,000 planes. It’s clear from the chart that, after the initial surprise attack, the Soviets kept their airforce out of action until the air shock penalties were ended (that allowed it to rebuild, too). Then they were thrown back into the fray, with mostly abysmal results.

[center]Total Losses[/center]

The attached screenshot charts total losses. The gridlines are 50,000 items. Similar to the loss penalty chart, you can see the initial Soviet slaughter during the surprise attack and the flat areas during the mud and blizzard phases. The Axis edge in losses slowly degraded, but a significant advantage remained to the end.