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TURN 5 - SOUTH. The Battle of the Nikolaev Pocket.

As projected, the Axis pushed aggressively east in this sector, heading for the Dnepr. Although the push was oriented further south than expected (I had assumed Cherassky to be the objective) the mobile forces I shifted onto the shoulder of the enemy push in Turn 3 were able to strike due south with great effect, executing a multi-faceted double envelopment of the whole of AG South's armour and other mobile units.

This successful counter offensive, although limited in scope and unlikely to hold the trapped enemy units for more than a turn, should delay the advance of AGS by 1-2 weeks, giving me time to start digging in along the Dnepr itself.

I consequently do not anticipate renewed Axis offensive operations in this sector, other than break out missions, prior to turns 8 or 9. All reserves arriving in theater over the next 3 turns will now be railed to the Leningrad and Moscow sectors.

TURN 5 - SOUTH

General situation showing the progress of my retreat to the Dnepr line and putting the Battle of the Nikolaev Pocket into context.

I wonder if the axis can sustain such a deep operation early in the campaign... His railheads will be miles away

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

TURN 5 - SOUTH. The Battle of the Nikolaev Pocket.

As projected, the Axis pushed aggressively east in this sector, heading for the Dnepr. Although the push was oriented further south than expected (I had assumed Cherassky to be the objective) the mobile forces I shifted onto the shoulder of the enemy push in Turn 3 were able to strike due south with great effect, executing a multi-faceted double envelopment of the whole of AG South's armour and other mobile units.

This successful counter offensive, although limited in scope and unlikely to hold the trapped enemy units for more than a turn, should delay the advance of AGS by 1-2 weeks, giving me time to start digging in along the Dnepr itself.

I consequently do not anticipate renewed Axis offensive operations in this sector, other than break out missions, prior to turns 8 or 9. All reserves arriving in theater over the next 3 turns will now be railed to the Leningrad and Moscow sectors.

Perhaps his wife has taken the Hitler role to heart and is now doing all the tactical moves as well. Carnage is playing like a noob, i'm afraid.

TOP SECRET

SUMMARY OF A CURRENT APPRECIATION OF THE MILITARY SITUATION

Prepared by the Red Army Chiefs of Staff for the STAVKA
July, 1941

OVERVIEW OF CURRENT SITUATION

Since the commencement of operations against the fascist invaders, our forces have demonstrated resilience and flexibility. Operations have been conducted in an organised fashion, with initiative and independent thinking being exhibited on the part of commanders at all levels.

The enemy appears confused and frustrated and his latest maneuvers suggest desperation to achieve a strategic breakthrough at any cost.

LAND FORCES AND OPERATIONS

North

After failing to capture Riga and Pskov at the outset of operations, and with Tallinn still in our hands and inhibiting the enemy's logistics programme, the pace of operations in this sector has slowed. While the threat to Leningrad remains severe, we have been given a respite and are currently preparing the defense of that city, plus Novgorod and all points in between.

Center

Failure to quickly secure and extinguish pocketed Soviet formations in the area around Minsk led to a situation in which the enemy was attempting to thrust forward with his armour and motorized formations alone. The bulk of his infantry divisions remained locked in mopping up operations for over 3 weeks and railway construction/supply are likely to have been hindered.

Our brave soldiers have now been able to concentrate for the defense of Smolensk and reserve formations are gathering to protect Moscow.

South

The enemy achieved strategic surprise in this sector with a bold thrust to the extreme south with all of his armoured forces. However, once this move had been conducted he then over-extended and has, as a result, been cut off by a series of weak penetrations of the flanks of his advance.

We appear to be in a good position to hold and strengthen our line in this sector and the defenses of the Crimea are simultaneously being reinforced, while Odessa remains in our hands.

AIR FORCES AND OPERATIONS

Our air force has conducted only limited operations during this period and is undergoing a major rebuild. Air operations are not expected to resume in any significant intensity before Spring 1942.

NAVAL FORCES AND OPERATIONS

Aside from limited naval operations and extensive mine warfare, the most significant point in this strategic dimension has been the enemy's failure to seize and hold ports along the line of advance. This has had the triple effect of:

1. Allowing cut off Soviet forces to continue their fight for 1-2 additional turns.

2. Allowing Soviet naval withdrawals and the reinforcement of key points.

3. Denying pocketed Axis units access to naval supply.

INDUSTRIAL

The enemy's slow advance has allowed us to safely evacuate 95% of our industrial and armaments production capacity from threatened cities to the east. This bodes well for future production.

INTELLIGENCE

We currently have very limited intelligence on enemy intentions and dispositions. Air reconnaissance is not yet effective.

PARTISAN OPERATIONS

Although partisan cadres are forming, our limited air transport capacity, particularly in the area of long range aircraft, has so far prevented us from activating these forces.

ENEMY CAPABILITIES AND LIKELY INTENTIONS

The enemy's senior leadership appears to lack a coherent strategic/operational plan and is acting opportunistically. This is contrary to patterns of behaviour observed on the part of the same leadership cadre in other theaters and is probably best explained as resulting from frustration with errors committed during the first week of operations. It appears that the enemy has no contingency plan to deal with early setbacks.

We anticipate a series of poorly coordinated armoured thrusts over the next 6-8 weeks, followed by a move to the strategic defensive once the enemy concludes that his main objectives cannot be achieved prior to winter.

The enemy will probably dig a series of defensive lines, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, in order to weather the winter weather and our inevitable counter thrusts.

PROJECTED SITUATION +4 WEEKS

North

We will be under intense pressure in front of Leningrad and Novgorod. Fascist armour will be attempting a right hook to encircle the city, possibly via the Valdai Hills.

Center

Smolensk will have fallen after bitter fighting and Vyazma will be contested. However, the enemy will be exhausted and his armoured forces will be seriously depleted and open to counter attack.

South

The enemy will be poised to launch a crossing operation to breach the Dnepr defense line, but his follow-on objectives will be limited with either Stalino or a break-in to the Crimea possibly representing the limit of his possible 1941 advance.

LONG TERM PROJECTIONS +20 WEEKS

Leningrad, Moscow, Tula, Kursk and Rostov will remain in our hands. An exhausted enemy force will be partially dug in and bracing itself for Red Army winter operations.

The goals of our first winter counter offensive will be to break the spirit of AGC, which represents the biggest potential threat for Spring 1942.

Signed: Zhukov

TURN 6 - NORTH

No major events here. Tallinn still holds, some adjustments to my defensive lines.

TURN 6 - CENTER.

Relatively quiet here this turn. Cargnage continues to push straight at Smolensk, but makes no obvious moves to pocket major forces this turn.

TURN 6 - SOUTH CENTRAL

My pull back behind the line of the Dnepr is complete. It should take Carnage a couple of turns at least to bring his main body up and prepare it for a major river crossing. Meanwhile, I will be digging like crazy.

TURN 6 SOUTH

Carnage did an excellent job of rescuing his trapped SS troopers here and almost pocketing my southern forces. However, the counter encirclement was not complete and I was able both to break loose and to create two new, though weak, Axis pockets this turn.

Also note the large number of surviving Soviet stay-behinds, eating up large numbers of Axis minor units.

The Axis situation in the deep south remains messy and threatens the whole Axis 1941 strategic plan.

As the Axis you cannot if at all possible leave mobile pockets of Soviets in your rear. They need to be ZOCed in at a minimum or chaos can reign.

ORIGINAL: Ketza

As the Axis you cannot if at all possible leave mobile pockets of Soviets in your rear. They need to be ZOCed in at a minimum or chaos can reign.

And 'Chaos' is my middle name

TURN 6 - WHOLE FRONT

TURN 7 - NORTH

The enemy made a renewed push at key points all along the front this turn. Although recon suggests that his mobile forces are low on fuel, I have pulled back to my reserve positions to avoid the risk of being pocketed.

I have purposely left troops to hold Pskov and VL in order to delay the enemy's move to his new forming up areas.

TURN 7 - CENTER

The enemy broke through my defenses at three key points and to avoid a major pocket I have pulled back.

The defenses in front of Moscow are now stretched, so I need to reinforce the city in strength on Turn 8.

TURN 7 - SOUTH

Note that the battle of Nikolaev is in its 3rd week and will run for at least 4 before it's concluded.

While my 'Battle of Smolensk' hasn't really materialized, the delay to AGS is probably of equivalent significance in strategic terms. Now, I must hold Leningrad and Moscow.

TURN 7 - FRONT

Showing that I recognize the need to urgently rail troops from other sectors to dig in before Moscow.

How much industry have you lost?

His advance is slow in south with all the mech units he committed. He should have been across the river by turn 4 or 5 and be HQed.

He is not using HQ build up to his advantage at all.

Pelton

Very nice AAR redmarkus4

One of the best I have seen as far as info and mapping.

Pelton

ORIGINAL: Pelton

How much industry have you lost?

His advance is slow in south with all the mech units he committed. He should have been across the river by turn 4 or 5 and be HQed.

He is not using HQ build up to his advantage at all.

Pelton

I have lost only minimal amounts - have been able to transport almost everything east as it came under threat.

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Very nice AAR redmarkus4

One of the best I have seen as far as info and mapping.

Pelton

Cheers! We aim to please