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RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:37 pm
by joelmar
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

We non-random weather so it is blizzard from 04.12.1942 to last february turn, then snow through march, then 4 turns of mud, then clear-mud-clear-mud a few times until summer comes.

Ok, thanks for the info.

Interesting to see German offensive capabilites in the second year's blizzard. I'm very surprised the Soviets didn't try anything of importance yet. At the same time, looking from the outside there didn't seem to be much opportunities for them after Uranus, your line always seemed solid enough to contain anything they could throw at you, even more now that the line has been shortened.
ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I think this is worthwhile and has not been done before. My take on it so far is that this is a "study" AAR rather than a casual read one. So readers will haev to make the extra effort here but the upside is a lot more understanding.

+1

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:39 pm
by corbon
ORIGINAL: Telemecus
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
I know the images are a bit big but I really want to show MPs and CVs so the reader has a better picture of what are the options of each side and why something is done or not done.

I think this is worthwhile and has not been done before. My take on it so far is that this is a "study" AAR rather than a casual read one. So readers will haev to make the extra effort here but the upside is a lot more understanding.

+1 here too. I really like this AAR format

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:35 pm
by MattFL
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

T2, 26.11.1942 alternative Stalingrad pocket
Before starting the Campaign, I experimented a bit with the Soviet opening. Below you can see what I came up with. Some failed attacks can force you to take other ways, but on the other hand, it was the first or second try, so you can surely optimise more. One can't keep the Axis from re-connecting the pocket in T2, but deny them a comfortable path to walk out. My opponent commented that he wanted to avoid split-ups in his opening in fear of counterattacks, but I think ZOCing is a better precaution. Maybe another player or a rematch can give a definite answer.

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Very interesting AAR. At the minimum, it's gotten me to consider looking at playing a scenario, thought never even cross my mind before. One comment you made that struck me was "One can't keep the Axis from re-connecting the pocket in T2". Felt like a challenge, so I booted it up and took a look for the first time. When I initially posted this a few minutes ago, I assumed that there was an Axis Turn 1 (as I said, never played a scenario before, so the Russians have never had first move!). I now see that Axis Turn 1 is in fact Turn 2 of the game. So that being said, I did a very quick run through of Soviet Turn 1. Didn't move all of the units, moved only enough to seal the pocket in the German first turn. From what I can tell, this isn't breakable, though I could be wrong. I tried several times as Germans to break it and closest I got was one hex shy....

Question - what is the date (on the file) of this Campaign? Just wondering because I have lost battles and loaded the Stalingrad to Berlin Campaign, but the opening setup looks different in my game than it does on your screenshots. So i'm wondering if I have the right scenario??

Regardless, refreshing to have a new situation to play with.

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RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:56 am
by EwaldvonKleist
Hi Matt, it is good to hear that you like the AAR and have been inspired to try a new scenario by this. I think the Stalingrad to Berlin campaign gets not enough love from the community so far.

The scenario file date is 21.01.2018, what is yours? And I play the Stalingrad to Berlin campaign.

From what turn is your screenshot? In my scenario the hexagons Southwest of Stalingrad are not takeable for the Soviets on T1 and the units in my more Western pocket seem to be more to the West from the start in your game (assuming you have the beginning of T2 there).

What makes the break out possible in my case is that Stalingrad has much supply stored and the motorised units have almost 100% vehicles and are not connected to the main pool due to isolation, so they are in perfect supply (even better than the outside units which suffer from the rail modifier) and remain at 100% vehicles through the logistics phase (unlike the units outside)=45+ MPs.

@Telemecus, Joelmar, Corbon: I think the best format for the reader actually is to have the description in boxes on the image. The problem is that this text is not quotable and MS Paint does not support layers, so you can't rework the text once it is inserted. Therefore a combination of forum and on-image text.

Writing AARs is also an exercise in English (although I don't formulate very meticulously for time reasons, don't double check grammar rules or certain words etc.) and graphical presentation. And as a bonus native speakers can learn new words I have invented.

If someone likes do download all the images I can also set up a gdrive folder so you can do it all at once.

Indeed this AAR is more intended as a game mechanic/study AAR, I hope to find the time for some more theory chapters.





RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:36 am
by MattFL
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Hi Matt, it is good to hear that you like the AAR and have been inspired to try a new scenario by this. I think the Stalingrad to Berlin campaign gets not enough love from the community so far.

The scenario file date is 21.01.2018, what is yours? And I play the Stalingrad to Berlin campaign.

From what turn is your screenshot? In my scenario the hexagons Southwest of Stalingrad are not takeable for the Soviets on T1 and the units in my more Western pocket seem to be more to the West from the start in your game (assuming you have the beginning of T2 there).

What makes the break out possible in my case is that Stalingrad has much supply stored and the motorised units have almost 100% vehicles and are not connected to the main pool due to isolation, so they are in perfect supply (even better than the outside units which suffer from the rail modifier) and remain at 100% vehicles through the logistics phase (unlike the units outside)=45+ MPs.

It's strange because it seems the scenario I have is the right scenario, but perhaps there was an update to it that changed it? When I look in the pick scenario list, Stalingrad to Berlin Lost Battles scenario shows a date of 4-29-2013. But I don't show an update/download available for lost battles. Hmmm...…

I'm using the Matrix versions. I can tell that they are different just because in my version of the scenario, the Russians start with units in Stalingrad. In yours, they do not. The screenshot I posted is the start of the first German Turn. Any idea how to get the updated scenario, assuming that's the problem??


RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:24 pm
by EwaldvonKleist
I think when you update the game the scenario updates automatically as well. So when you buy and download the expansion you may get an old scenario file but when you then update the game you will get the recent one. At least that was my exp with Vistula to Berlin IIRC. But I think there also is some magic involved.
If you PM me with your email I can send you my scenario file so you can compare (I do not want to post it with a public gdrive link since I am not sure if that is legal).

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:36 pm
by MattFL
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

I think when you update the game the scenario updates automatically as well. So when you buy and download the expansion you may get an old scenario file but when you then update the game you will get the recent one. At least that was my exp with Vistula to Berlin IIRC. But I think there also is some magic involved.
If you PM me with your email I can send you my scenario file so you can compare (I do not want to post it with a public gdrive link since I am not sure if that is legal).

PM Sent. But what's a bit strange is that is that in theory these scenarios shouldn't even be contained in an update of the base game as they aren't part of the base game. You would think Lost Battles would have it's own updates.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:52 pm
by EwaldvonKleist
True. I am not really sure how that works to be honest, only going after some sketchy memory here.
The WitE updater could check if you own lost battles and then update those scens as well.

Edit: Matt just wrote me he bought the Lost Battles expansion last night so I think his one is the old version which will be updated if he installs the next WitE version, while mine is the current edition.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:25 am
by MattFL
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

True. I am not really sure how that works to be honest, only going after some sketchy memory here.
The WitE updater could check if you own lost battles and then update those scens as well.

Edit: Matt just wrote me he bought the Lost Battles expansion last night so I think his one is the old version which will be updated if he installs the next WitE version, while mine is the current edition.

Got it working and fussed about with it today for a bit. It's 100x harder to trap the 6th Army in this version, which i'm sure is how they want it and why the scenario was changed. That being said i'm very much convinced that it can be done despite my not having done so yet (oh so very close). I think there is one critical move that I don't see in your quick test run as soviets that allows it to happen. Once I sort, will post in a different thread. Nice brain exercise. [;)]

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:52 am
by EwaldvonKleist
T9, 14.01.1943 some doctrine
As both sides in this campaign are of similar strength, with some advantage to the Soviets, the holder of the initiative and the role of attacker and defender are only partially globally and not at all locally predetermined, but depend on the economy of forces, activity and cunning displayed by both sides. I would like to share some framework I follow in my decision making.

The first idea is the ratio of CV necessary to hold a certain part of the line. A continuous frontline is no imperative and must not become a dogma, but often it is advantageous to choose this position. Unless the sector has been marked for an offensive, the only goal is to hinder the advance of the enemy beyond that frontline, and force is needed to deny this. Those considerations tend to be symmetric, with the enemy having the same thoughts and wishes. As resources are almost always scarce, as little as possible shall be invested. Said resources are offensive CV for our purposes, which are converted to defensive CV at an exchange ratio depending on the hexagon, and a certain minimum amount of def CV is necessary to maintain the line against the present enemy off CV.
By supporting the own front line with advantageous terrain and high fortifications levels, one can keep the own amount of off CV pinned down for defensive purposes low. If the enemy on the other hand is on open terrain, he must always fear an attack, and will find much of his forces fixed in place to hold the line. The result is that one has reserves which can be concentrated at one point for an offensive advantage, or that one can hold the line even with inferior forces.
Assume sides A and B with equal forces, but A’s line being placed in light woods and B’s in clear hexagons. If managed correctly, A will have no problem to create reserves for an own offensive without risking the integrity of the frontline, while B will constantly struggle to secure its line.
Therefore, it has been one of my aims over the last turns to create situations where my forces are in dense terrain, while the enemy is in the open, creating an advantageous ratio of enemy line-holding off CV to own line-holding off CV.
A nice side effect is that an enemy with a front and rear in clear terrain will have difficulties hiding a build-up for future offensives, while the more difficult terrain behind the own front can easily conceal it.
Below, you can see some examples for operations to improve the front line off CV ratio. During operation 1, swamp hexagons were conquered. The enemy now has to defend from clear or light wood hexagons, arguably more difficult and AFV friendly than swamps.
During operation 2, Soviet fortifications were destroyed, not because of a particular need or a planned greater offensive, but to increase the off CV commitment requirement for the Soviets. The idea is, that by the principle of too many threats, an exploitable gap will eventually appear.
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As WitE contains incomplete information and randomness, a certain amount of off CV committed to line holding never gives a guarantee, but only a chance to prevail against enemy effort. If a certain front is very important to one side, it will be forced to detach more strength to “almost sure” the line will hold, as opposed to “reasonably sure” sufficient for ordinary parts of the front. An ordinary light wood hexagon in the middle of nowhere could e.g. be guarded sufficiently by one rifle division. But if the hexagon instead lies 30 miles from Moscow, the Soviet player will be forced to commit much more, double to triple stacked at the front with fall back lines.
It is therefore advantageous to have the frontline running close to vital enemy supply lines (corridors or rail lines), major cities, major rail hubs or in terrain where loss of fortifications due to an unlucky battle threatens snowball effects later.


The second idea deals with the activity of units, in other words how flexible and threatening it is in a certain position. The idea is most easily explained by an example. A Soviet unit in the Sevastopol fortress has very little activity. Locked behind strong Axis fortifications, it can’t attack, and will take a long time to move to another front if it is needed there for attack or defence. A Soviet unit at the front at Moscow on the other is rather active. It can walk left and right to merge forces with its neighbours for an attack and then walk back to its former position. It can jump on a train and quickly move to another front. And even if it does nothing of that, it still guards an important position.
I therefore try to gain activity for my units by evacuating low activity spots as the Demyansk pocket and removing ZOC locks while keeping Soviet units locked in places with low activity, like the Leningrad area.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:56 am
by EwaldvonKleist
@Matt: Make sure to post your save when you have found a way, here or in another thread.
When doing the break out, one needs to air-resupply first. Air resupply of pocketed units is free of MP cost and gives nice supply and CV boost as there is a German airfield in the pocket. But looking on the screenshot of my attempt one can maybe push it out of the pocket.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:05 am
by EwaldvonKleist
T10, 21.01.1943 before Axis operations
The Soviets reinforce the backdoor to Leningrad. No chance to attack there anymore, Unthinkable is cancelled.
The pocket of Siegfried holds, an entire Soviet army will be killed. Very nice.
Partisans continue to be very active and blow up important rail lines. I struggle to repair the rail lines as quick as they are destroyed. Snow and summer weather with lower MP cost will make this easier.
The Soviets take two hexagons with frontal attacks, very disappointed by my commanders here. At least Guderian can be relied on.

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RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:12 am
by Telemecus
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
The second idea deals with the activity of units, in other words how flexible and threatening it is in a certain position. The idea is most easily explained by an example. A Soviet unit in the Sevastopol fortress has very little activity. Locked behind strong Axis fortifications, it can’t attack, and will take a long time to move to another front if it is needed there for attack or defence. A Soviet unit at the front at Moscow on the other is rather active. It can walk left and right to merge forces with its neighbours for an attack and then walk back to its former position. It can jump on a train and quickly move to another front. And even if it does nothing of that, it still guards an important position.
I therefore try to gain activity for my units by evacuating low activity spots as the Demyansk pocket and removing ZOC locks while keeping Soviet units locked in places with low activity, like the Leningrad area.

I wonder if activity is the right word? Would "potential" better describe it?

I always found the world of options pricing in finance to be perfect for describing this thing. They already have the vocabulary of put options, call options and every other strategic interplay that I find it useful to borrow their words rather than reinvent the wheel? Once you are into caps, collars and Black-Scholes theorems on the battlefield and you are away!

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:56 am
by EwaldvonKleist
Potential would be a good word too, but activity of a piece is used in chess to describe what I mean.
http://www.thequietmove.com/positional- ... -activity/

We are fighting here to keep Europe free of Soviet Marxism and Anglo-Saxonian finance industry.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:34 pm
by MattFL

@Matt: Make sure to post your save when you have found a way, here or in another thread.

Done. I posted it in a new thread in the War Room.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:49 pm
by wkuh
Wonderful AAR & commentary from all.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:48 pm
by MattFL
You know, though I haven't played this campaign, I feel like there is a massive temptation given how it starts for the Soviet to think he's on the offensive at this point in the war. The Germans are still very dangerous here and other than the fact that the game starts with the Stalingrad counteroffensive and then progresses to blizzard, the reality is that the Germans probably still hold the initiative and are far from beaten. Again, this comment is without having played it, but if I were Russians i'd be careful, build my army and focus on late '43 and '44 offensives. Get too aggressive and the GHC will make you pay dearly. Steady build up and being relatively conservative will result in a Russian victory is my take on it.

As the German, I think I'd pull out of the salients unless the plan is to use them as an offensive springboard. Frees up a lot of units that GHC doesn't have while allows the SHC to actually make use of their massive number of units.

RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:08 am
by EwaldvonKleist
@wkuh: Thanks for your interest in the AAR :)

@MattFL: Your link to the save is broken so I can't comment yet on your Stalingrad pocket.
I disagree that the Germans hold the initiative if the Soviets really try to grab it. They need to become aware of their muscles and play very active with many attacks and relocating of forces. Even if the attack fails loss ratios are nice. IMO my opponent so far was too shy with attacking, and foot marched units at the Caucasus and Stalingrad instead of railing them somewhere else to mess up my fortification structure. I would love to test the Soviet side as well vs. strong Axis player to find out if I am overestimating the Soviet capabilities but have not time atm for a 3rd game on top of this and my DC:Barbarossa AAR/game.

Regards
EvK


RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:16 am
by EwaldvonKleist
T10, 21.01.1943 after Axis operations
I bring in reinforcements from the rear and destroy the pockets. Annoying held result against the encircled units in the swamp hexagon. Two new pockets, one target of opportunity in the far South, my opponent exposed himself here with an aggressive approach on my line. Both pockets are reasonably solid.
Some attacks across the front to destroy Soviet fortification levels and to moralise.
I played the turn quickly to get it back to my opponent before leaving my PC so it lacks some refinement, e.g. I did not resupply by air in the South.
Balancing the front line is difficult and I am not satisfied with the current state except in the North, at too many places I waste off CV against weak threats. But limited rail cap, the desire to save trucks and insufficient AP&command capacity combined with unsplitability of statig divisions into regiments make the balancing very difficult.

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RE: Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:30 pm
by Crackaces
Telemecus has convinced me 9 CV per contested hexside is safe to prevent getting pushed ..