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[Edit] Success!

I am still in the middle of this turn, but here are a few noteworthy developments so far.

Results of the HQBU

HQ 339 supply dump, 276 fuel dump (Herman Balck)
SS Wiking 49 MP, fuel have/need 396/380
9 Pz 40 MP, 479/416 (failed leader check?)
16 Pz 50 MP, 706/581
10 Pz 50 MP, 844/596

This corps then participated in an encirclement between Orel, Kursk and Voronezh. Two divisions from the corps advanced to Voronezh and captured the city with all of its starting factories including HI, armaments, and 84 IL-2 factories!!! Contrary to our expectations, none of the factories had been evacuated. Inside the pocket are 13 divisions: 6 cavlary, 1 tank, and 6 rifle. Unfortunately, there is a corridor through which the pocket can be broken during the Soviet turn. This would allow the 2 HQ inside the cauldron to escape. My only solution (there are no other units in range that could close the gap) is to recon the area to increase detection levels, and then hope that interdiction slows down the relief divisions.

Corridor looks very secure to me as it would require a move away from ZOC and then a move from ZOC to ZOC for the isolated cavalry.
Any relief will need to make a river crossing against ZOC and a ZOC to ZOC move.
Not likely on turn 12 given what you can see.

Nice move razing the IL-2 factories.
It’s a sin to leave Russian cities undefended within 25 hexes of the front lines.

ORIGINAL: Seminole

Corridor looks very secure to me as it would require a move away from ZOC and then a move from ZOC to ZOC for the isolated cavalry.
Any relief will need to make a river crossing against ZOC and a ZOC to ZOC move.
Not likely on turn 12 given what you can see.

Nice move razing the IL-2 factories.
It’s a sin to leave Russian cities undefended within 25 hexes of the front lines.

They were garrisoned with two tank brigades, obviously some of the new, extremely weak arrivals and not active tank divisions that had undergone conversion of their TOE. You can see the two brigades east of Voronezh.

That has to be at a minimum to prevent ZOC swipes (which is what I assumed from the map picture).
Congrats regardless of the fact they were shells. Getting back there with MP to make the attack is a victory in its own rights.

Yes, biggening, the verb form of "to make bigger" (pronounced big-ga-ning) [:'(]

First up, another HQBU to record:
HQ 22 MP to rail, 147 supply dump, 83 fuel dump (von Anim)
14 motor, fuel/need 87/296
20 motor, 131/317
20 pz, 197/399
7 pz, 156/386

Now onto business:
The soviets did try to break the pocket along the northern corridor that I pointed out in my last update. They failed at that, but they did manage to break the pocket from the south. As a result, the two HQs in the cauldron were able to escape. [:(] On the bright side, however, we had available a newly arrived corps (2 panzer divisions and one motorized brigade) that had just arrived on the eastern front. With this new corps we then actually made the pocket bigger, bringing in another 5 divisions within the encirclement. In toto, there are now 18 divisions within the new and improved pocket. This new pocket looks to be less likely to be broken.

(turn still in progress. I will update other fronts later.)

Time to report on other fronts.

Leningrad is a slog. We are obviously not going to capture it. The Russian commitment here is enormous, though that has meant the neglect of other fronts, possibly contributing to the disaster at Kiev.

Moscow may be out of reach as well. If I can get close enough to force a factory evacuation I will have accomplished enough. My over plan for this campaign has been to focus on the resource centers of Ukraine and the Donbas. I have done well around Tula and Voronezh. Hopefully we can capture the Donbas before the Russian counter offensive.

One more clear turn, then the mud sets in. The Stalino-Gorlovka complex will no doubt not fall easily, but I still hope to capture them and Voroshilovgrad by December.

I am not aiming to accomplish much in Crimea. I just wish to buy space and time to fortify the choke points into the southern Ukraine.

Results of the last HQBU

HQ 237 supply dump, 186 fuel dump
14 motor, 48 MP, fuel/need 305/297
20 motor, 48 MP, 343/312
20 pz, 40 MP, 453/395
7 pz, 31 MP, 421/382

The Panzers pulled off two final encirclements before the rain sets in.

North of Stalino we encircled 8 divisions, severely compromising the Soviet MLR. Unfortunately, the pocket is somewhat vulnerable to being opened by a counter attack against the motorized division closest to Gorlovka.

The other encirclement occurred around Tula netting 5 divisions and an HQ. Tula is a valuable target because of its manpower, rail yards and, importantly for me, its resources. This encirclement also threatens Moscow from the south. This pocket might possible be opened by some counter attacks, but I doubt it.

The situation in front of Moscow. Rzhev and Vyazma were both abandoned, so we moved in.

In front of Leningrad we actually made a fair amount of progress this turn. The Soviets counter attacked our furthest advanced units, causing them to retreat. They then move an AT brigade into the hex they just captured. Obviously meant to absorb movement points, I still disagree with this tactic since it did not materially change anything except inflict a lot of needless casualties on the Red Army. At any rate, we captured 6 hexes from the Soviets, though we did not push forward into all of them. Let the Red Army come to us if that is their desire. We can move into those hexes next turn quite easily and then launch attacks from there. We did isolate Novgorod which should help in capturing it next turn.

When I hit the "next turn" button this time I heard Soviet aircraft for the first time delivering supplies/men to partisan units. I didn't know that you would have any indication that partisan support operations were on-going. Now I know. So for 16 turns the Soviets have done nothing in the realm of partisan warfare. In some ways, though, it is too late for them to have much impact.

I have been diligently working to "partisan proof" my lines of communication. In the center, my two main rail conversion lines, one going through Minsk, the other passing south of it have now been connected so that if one line is hit, there is still a path back to Germany from the other line. This connection was established by assigning construction battalions to an RHG command and then positioning it so it would focus on repairing those lines connecting the northern and southern Byeloruss lines. That RHG command is now positioned to connect those lines using the western Dnepr rail line going through Gomel. Likewise, in the south I assigned construction battalions to the RHG command there and had it work on building redundancy into our main Ukrainian rail net.

Last clear turn. (I had thought turn 16 was the last clear turn. I was happy I got one more turn.)

I wanted to use this turn around Leningrad to get closer to cutting of the rail connection to Leningrad. (There are no factories there, but I still wanted to marginally worsen the supply situation there.) To do that I needed to clear a few units out of the way. The plan was to isolate one unit in our path, then route it out of the hex it was in. Instead, two divisions that needed to move in order to isolate that hex decided to retreat into that hex rather than back towards the Volkhov. So now we have a pocket of 3 rifle divisions we had not planned on. Although we did not make the forward progress we had hoped for, we have consigned another 3 Russian divisions to prisoner of war status.

In the Moscow sector most of the action involved cleaning up the pocket around Tula. We made some probing attacks around Rzhev and Vyazma, but decided to pull back since we were not going to make much progress.

The story was much the same around Stalino, where most of the action involved cleaning up the pocket created last turn.

In the Crimea, our focus had been to get out of the Soviet weather zone and set up our defenses in the European zone, thus avoiding the blizzard that will start in December.