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ORIGINAL: jlbhung
As to the motorized units, I usually let them take a rest every few turns. My observation is that often the chance to rest and recoup CPP comes naturally – waiting for infantry to catch up, waiting for infantry to get into position for a major assault, waiting for infantry to fill in the newly occupied area gained from breakthrough etc.

Operational pauses. Interesting, I think I tend to push my panzers and motorboyz too hard, which shows in the number of tanks I lose. It also means they aren't necessarily up to the task when I need them.

Turn 11

Raining came back, all over the map area.

1. Despite the raining, I decided to proceed with my attack. The major consideration was that 2 motorized divisions and 2 panzer divisions (those outlined in orange) were scheduled to leave at the start of Turn 13 and Turn 14 respectively. I should make better use of them before they leave.

2. The two Motorized Corps attacked along the hexes with average road, so that they suffered less from the raining and poor terrain.

3. Four Soviet divisions trapped west of River Narva.

4. Progress towards Valdai was slow.

Two new combat units arrived at Pskov. The Blue Infantry Division arrived this turn and was railed to Pskov. The 18 Motorized Division actually arrived last turn in the South. I did not notice it until near the end of this turn (never mind, some mistakes and oversights are unavailable).

Turn 12

Raining continued in the Northwestern half of the map area.

1. My Motorized Corps tried to press forward for another turn, but the gain was limited. The 36 Motorized Division was only 2 hexes from the VP location Tikhvin. However, the remaining 12 MPs it had were not sufficient for the division to cross the river into a heavy wood hex that was also in an enemy’s Zone of Control (ZOC).

2. The 16 Army stretched very thin in both its northern and southern end. In the South, I moved my regiments forward to create a wider buffer from the frontline to Adreapol. As the bulk of the Axis force was in the North, I need more time to react if the Soviet attacked here.

Axis motorized units were not in very good shape. At the end of Turn 12, MPs were mostly used up despite not much gain. Some units had ToE% in the 50s and 60s. Many had CPP less than 30. They needed a rest.

The supply lines from units to depots - I wanted to further shorten them in view of the bad terrain and raining.

Turn 13

Raining in the northwestern half of the map again. I had three consecutive turns of raining again.

Two motorized divisions left this turn. In addition, HQs of 4 Panzer Group and 41 Motorized Corps, together with two panzer divisions would leave next turn (units outlined in orange). In view of the scheduled departure, other units under 4 Panzer Group were transferred to 18 Army. The 18 Army was then made an Assault HQ this turn.

1. For the 5 motorized units that would stay behind, I put them under the 39 Motorized Corps and did not assign any combat duty to them for this turn. Four of them stayed away from the frontline so that CPP could be gained faster.

2. Elements of the 16 Army arrived at the outskirts of Valdai.

Turn 14

Raining continued, in all the map area. This was the fourth consecutive turns of raining.

Given that only three turns left, at the beginning of the turn I did an overall assessment on the likelihood of further VP locations to be taken –

(a) Valdai, Tikhvin and Shlisselburg were definitely achievable. Axis troops were only one to two hexes away;

(b) Kobona and Novaya Ladoga were uncertain. The terrain ahead and the weather was unfriendly. At the same time I did not have many infantry nearby;

(c) I saw little chance of taking Osinovets, NW Leningrad or Leningrad - to take Osinovets and NW Leningrad I had to cross a major river. Leningrad was a city fort and it took a lot of effort to isolate. Anyway, they were not on my target list from the start;

(d) Oranienbaum was also not one of my initial targets. But many infantry units from the 18 Army were nearby. Isolation of Oraniembaurm also seemed to be possible. Maybe I should give it a try.

Sorry, double post deleted.

Turn 14 (cont.) – blockade of Oranienbaum’s port

Oranienbaum had a port that needed to be blockaded.

1. I brought up the Flieger Fuehrer Ostsee AOG from the rear. The airbase at the seaport Tallinn were occupied by level bombers from KG76 and did not have sufficient capacity. Therefore the sea patrol planes had to base inland in another level 2 airbase at Kuusiku instead.

2. Next I set up a Naval Patrol Air Directive. I set the intensity to High and assigned two AOGs for the mission. No fighter AOG was assigned as they did not have the range to provide escorts [JG53 and JG54 were not highlighted]. Actually I had little experience with this kind of mission so I used the default settings for “fly phase”, “schedule” and “strike num”.

The result of Naval Patrol looked good. Axis gained sea control of the hex with an air interdict value of 43 against Soviet’s 22. [This value was divided by 10, rounded down and then displayed on map – so that became 4 to 2 on map. Axis controlled the hex if the Axis value displayed on map was 2 level higher than Soviet’s].

End of Turn 14

1. Valdai was taken. Two infantry divisions were released from this sector and headed north.

2. Tikhvin was taken. I did not have sufficient troops to further clear the surroundings.

3. Axis troops were now next to Shlisselburg. Progress was very slow in this sector. Every hex forward was a struggle.

4. Land connection of Oranienbaum was cut off. Infantry advancing form the direction of the Narva River was slow amidst the poor terrain and raining.

ORIGINAL: jlbhung

The result of Naval Patrol looked good. Axis gained sea control of the hex with an air interdict value of 43 against Soviet’s 22. [This value was divided by 10, rounded down and then displayed on map – so that became 4 to 2 on map. Axis controlled the hex if the Axis value displayed on map was 2 level higher than Soviet’s].

Does that actually block naval supply? I presumed that supply would daisy chain over the ferry to Kronstadt, and from Krondstadt to Oranienbaum.

Is that assumption incorrect?

The hex side between Kronstadt and Oranienbaum is impassable. You will find that Oranienbaum was isolated when I upload the image for Turn 15.

[Edit: I further checked the manual to seek a better understanding of impassable hexsides. According to 7.2.3, units can cross impassable river hexsides if both sides are friendly controlled. Separately, 25.5.4 povides that supply paths cannot be traced ...... across unfrozen impassable lake or river hexsides.]

The re-location of the 4PG comes right at the crunch time. Nice strategy on isolating the Oranienbaum City Fort.

The 18th Army infantry still looks quite strong but 16th Army infantry looks a little burned out covering the long right flank.

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

The re-location of the 4PG comes right at the crunch time...

It is morale breaking to see units withdrawing when you need them most .

Turn 15

I had another turn of raining over the whole map area. The fifth turn of raining .

1. The status of enemy units in Oranienbaum became isolated this turn (outlined in red). However, many of the Axis infantry units had not yet arrived for the attack against the city fort. Attack deferred. Naval Patrol continued this turn generating Axis interdiction of 40 vs Soviet’s 22.

2. Shlisselburg was occupied.

3. Progress towards Kobona and Novaya Ladoga was halted half-way as my motorized units did not have enough MPs to move further forward. If I had more troops, I would have pushed back the 6=20 stack first.

Turn 16

This was the last action turn. The scenario would end at the start of Turn 17. It was still raining over the whole map area.

Beginning of the turn gave me a surprise that Oranienbaum was no longer isolated. I looked at the only sea hex connected to the port and found that the Axis no longer controlled the hex with an air interdict level of 38. I was at a lost because I ended the last turn at 40. Anyway, I had to live with it.




[Later after completed this game, I spent some time loading the save files, changing settings and parameters to test, and observing the end of turn executions several times. I finally realized the following –

(a) Naval Patrol was in fact carried out twice a turn, once in the Axis Air Phase and once in the Soviet Air Phase. The interdict value would not carry over from one Air Phase to another. It was the new interdict value generated by Axis Naval Patrol mission in the subsequent Turn 15 Soviet Air Phase that determined whether the port would be isolated at the beginning of Turn 16. The interdict value I saw at the end of Axis Turn 15 did not matter.

(b) If I want to isolate the sea port for the purpose of ground attack in Turn 16, I need to first control the sea hex in the Soviet Air Phase of Turn 15 (it is possible to choose in the Air Directive settings whether to fly in the friendly phase, the enemy phase or both), then control the hex again in the Axis Air Phase of Turn 16.]

Turn 16 (cont)

Assault on Oranienbaum

Given that this was the last turn, I attacked Oranienbaum anyway despite it not isolated, and …… I succeeded, though most of the Soviets escaped.

At start of the battle, there were 7200 ready Axis elements against 5375 from the Soviet. After the shooting, Axis ready elements were more than halved:
7200 -341(destroyed) -727(damaged) -3073(disrupted) = 3059

Soviet ready elements were drastically reduced:
5375 -419(destroyed) – 756(damaged) –3487(disrupted ground) -50(disrupted air) = 663

The 88% reduction in ready elements, combined with the reduction in fort levels and maybe some poor leader rolls, explained the huge reduction in the defender CV (2487 => 73).

In the battle, 76 Axis bombers disrupted 50 Soviet elements. Air support played only an insignificant role here.

I checked the ground combat details and found that most of the disruptions, damages and destructions caused by the Axis were from actions of rifle squads, 50mm mortars, pioneer squads and machineguns in close range combats.

[When writing this AAR, I was wondering whether the success in this battle of Oranienbaum was mainly due to a very good roll of dice. I took the save file and replay the battle 20 times. Axis succeeded 9 times and failed 11 times, a success rate of 45% (of course it would be better to run 100 times or more, but I think 20 times already give a rough indication without spending too much time). While the initial defender CV value was intimidating, the result of my test suggests that city forts are really not so insurmountable even without isolation.]

Turn 16 (cont.)

The other focus of this last turn was Kobona. Soviet defenders were cleared. However, no Axis units had sufficient MPs left to enter the town or the hex east to it to secure this VP location. I could only hope that the ZOC, the poor terrain and the raining together would be sufficient to prevent the Soviets from taking back Kobona. This was the first time in playing this scenario that I wished the weather to turn worse rather than better .