Dali101 wrote: Sat May 30, 2026 11:57 pm
You assess the overall situation quite realistically.
The initial successes of the nationalists do not need to be overestimated.
The Republic is building up really powerful forces in 1937.
The number of divisions of the Republic at the beginning of 1938 is almost double.
Although some nationalist divisions are somewhat stronger.
The initial quality of the nationalist units was unfortunately subjectively adjusted, reduced.
But in the global of later forces, this is a negligible extent.
Definitely do not expect an easy victory over the Republic.
(as some people here subjectively announce).
Yes, I think the game models the Republic much more strongly than historical....I didn't realize that. Historically, the Republic, during the entire Civil War, never launched a successful offensive (except maybe the opening days of Teruel, but that ended in disaster). The only battle the Republic won was the Battle of Guadalajara, and in that one the Italian Leadership was very poor.
So, I expected the Republic to be kinda weak still in 1937....NOT the case in-game!
Unless there is a tilt back, I don't think the Nationalists can win the Civil War after 1936
February 4, 1937
Sorry haven't had an update in a bit, but mostly I'm getting pushed back more and more.
Air/Naval War:
This is the one phase going well; at this point I've bombed out most of the Republican airforce on the ground, and there aren't alot of bombers flying on his end. Meanwhile, I am bombing his guys every day. The Republic has lost 429 aircraft so far, and I know from scouting that many of his Soviet units are depleted. I have lost 162 planes, and though I am short some FIATS and Ju-52s, most slots are fill.
Nationalists are winning the air war
Levant:
On the ground, though, things are terrible. He's over the Gallego River north of the city. South of the city, there's a force of 20,000 troops heading NE that I cannot stop. In the center, he assaulted over the Ebro at Casablanca:
-------------------------------------
Weather in hex: Clear wind 0
Republican shock attack at 119, 77 - Casablanca (Light Urban terrain)
Attacker artillery value: 226
Defender artillery value: 0
Attacker adjusted AV: 442
Defender adjusted AV: 45
Engineer Combat Power 76
Attack odds: 9/1 (Highest fort level 0)
Attacker now controls 2 of 5 NM in hex
Attackers managed to cross river
Attacker losses: 824 Casualties
Squads lost: 102 disabled, 3 destroyed
Vehicles lost: 0 disabled, 0 destroyed
Guns lost: 0 disabled, 0 destroyed
Defender losses: 1511 Casualties
Squads lost: 126 disabled, 34 destroyed
Vehicles lost: 58 disabled, 12 destroyed
Guns lost: 1 disabled, 0 destroyed
Misc. lost: 7 disabled, 2 destroyed
Units Destroyed: 0
So yeah, that didn't hold long. I am evacuating the airbase at Garapinillos south of town.
Clearly, he's trying to envelop Zaragossa, rather than attack it head-on. That's going to work, because I think I need to pull back into Navarre where the terrain is better and hope to form a viable defense line there. Because here, it's just not going to work.
Here is the latest map; you can see his attack vectors. To the West, below Burgos, I am counterattacking; I need to halt this direction first because the loss of Burgos means the loss of the war.

- 1.jpg (523.71 KiB) Viewed 420 times
North Update:
Very static up north; I've had to pull units from Bilbao in order to counter his moves. I make Cautious attacks daily at 0-1 odds, just to keep the supply burn up. The Navy bombards every day. It's been at least 2 months since any ship made it from the USSR, and I think longer (have to look it up in the AAR).
Up here, I have to just keep him bottled up until the supplies run out; I won't be able to muscle him out of Bilbao. My forces are actually outnumbered up here, as he has at least 60,000 troops total.
If he is ever able to open a supply line to Bilbao, that would also end the game.

- 1-1.jpg (173.84 KiB) Viewed 419 times
Compounding Issues:
One issue I think many are reporting is the difficulty of defense. The Nationalists have power early. I think one of the major issues is the compounding effect of retreats.
If you stay in a hex and fight it out until a retreat is forced, that often trashes the morale of a unit, and disables it. Often, the unit will look something like this one (and this guy has been resting for 3 days):

- 1-2.jpg (133.91 KiB) Viewed 419 times
The problem is this unit cannot really effectively defend, even with a couple days breather (which this unit has had). Attackers, in the meantime, probably have some disablements, but otherwise things are fine. So, once the ball starts rolling on an attack, it is VERY hard to stop.
I wonder if this is an issue that needs to be looked at; it takes a LONG time, upwards of 2 weeks, for a unit to recover morale into the 70s. Plus recover disablements. The problem is when you are manning a front, you don't have 2 weeks.
Overall, attacking is too easy IMO........
OOB:
Another aspect is replacements.
My esteemed opponent says that he has plenty of Squads and Devices in the pool, and is not experiencing any shortages (I could probably ask him to inventory to check closely).
The Nationalist Pools are empty of the following:
Infanteria 36
Volunteer 37
Montana 38
All Mortars
All Heavy MGs
All light MGs, except the Chauchat (of which are are MOUNTAINS of this type)
Those are the core Squads the Nationalist army needs. Army of Africa is OK, and there is just enough it seems for the Militias (Falange and Requetes).
So, the Republic can absorb MANY more losses (he has to this point), while the Nationalists are going to run hand to mouth on the infantry.
Historically, this was the case; the Republic had more men, and even not enough Rifles to equip them all! So that's fine, but the Nationalist army also maintained a qualitative edge the entire war, one I don't see in evidence (I detailed that before)
I'll post separately on the Chauchats....kind of weird there are so many