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The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.

What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?

Spain reported 164 deaths today, its lowest total since March 19. Spain's decline came so much quicker than Italy's did. I'll add a comparison graphic momentarily.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very early on in here, there were predictions that Florida would be particularly hard hit due to its elderly population. Didn't happen (more accurately: hasn't happened and isn't now projected to happen).

From a historical standpoint it would be interesting to know what info went into the early models and why they were too high for places like Florida and too low for New York.

We had the same thing in Scotland, and the UK in general. It all boils down to how you classify deaths.

After the UK classification changed to be more broader, numbers jumped. If you're running the numbers from "died in hospital, tested positive for Covid", then I doubt that demographic gets captured.

If you're taking a couple of weeks to trawl death certificates to pick up mentions of Covid-like symptoms, then the numbers are likely to be more accurate in my mind.

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.

What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?

I have been looking for something like that number for a long time. The best I can come up with is the CDC has the US at 101, 115 and 119 (weekly number) percent above the prior three years average for a 3 week period before dropping back down to less than 100%. And for the year to date we are still under 99% of expected deaths. Data published May 1st.

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now slightly less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what? really?

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.

What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?

I have been looking for something like that number for a long time. The best I can come up with is the CDC has the US at 101, 115 and 119 (weekly number) percent above the prior three years average for a 3 week period before dropping back down to less than 100%. And for the year to date we are still under 99% of expected deaths. Data published May 1st.

Interesting that it's so hard to find.

For what it's worth, Scotland was at 68% higher registered deaths compared to the average for this time of year.

Granted, apples and oranges with the US and all, but if it's half as bad that's still 30% above the average...

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?

Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.

Lowpe, do you have the link to those stats or did you have to synthesize them from various sources, so that you really can't link it.

Those numbers are remarkable.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coro ... um=Twitter

So China was panicking when it realized the virus could become a huge problem in their country, and started gathering what they would need if they could not contain it. And Canada concluded it was better to help the Chinese deal with it before it spread too much worldwide. At the time, no one knew how fast it would spread or how stealthy it was, and the Chinese did not know how effective their control measures would be. It looks like the Chinese were being really proactive. So now they are selling the PPE back to the world and bidders are setting the price. I don't see a problem.

BTW, here is a clip of the world's biggest cargo plane delivering a load of PPE to Quebec ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6898314/coro ... pe-quebec/

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?

Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.

That does make sense, I'm indulged by the fairly streamlined process in Scotland in that regard. US data landscape seems much more...craggy.

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Lowpe, those are surprising numbers (assuming I'm reading them correctly). Am I right that those stats show mortality is now less than expected, even with Covid-19?

If not, excuse my misinterpretation. If, so....what?

Yes, you read it correctly.

I thought I posted it, but now in looking back at this thread I see that I haven't.

There are caveats of course to understanding the numbers. I previously mentioned that there is difficulty in collecting the numbers, not because of any strange conspiracy, but rather each state has different processes and timelines.

I will see if I can dig up the link direct to the CDC.

That does make sense, I'm indulged by the fairly streamlined process in Scotland in that regard. US data landscape seems much more...craggy.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the data is tabulated on 5.25 inch floppy in some states.[:D]

CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

USA Today struggling with context here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 062216001/

The newspaper notes that the US has more than 63k deaths, which is more than the combined total mortalities of the countries with the second and third most deaths, Italy and UK....but fails to note that their combined populations are about 127 million, more than 200 million less than the US.

[:-]

Thanks, Lowpe.

I think there may be a typo in your comment (see bold below)?

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Lowpe.

I think there may be a typo in your comment (see bold below)?

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CR, here you go (my memory was a little off on the numbers and timeframe):

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Gotta read the caveats before commenting on the data, CR!

I didn't comment on the data.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.

Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.

Last week there were multiple news reports that Germany would have to reconsider easing of countermeasures, now in effect, due to flare ups.

There may be/have been flare ups here and there, but overall there's no trending increase there. Germany continues to do well.

I'm waiting for him to clarify. He ran together a figure (2) and a letter (P) in a way that I don't understand. I'm hoping he'll clarify.

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.

Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.

Where is Wuhan on the WITP AE map?