Matrix Games Forums

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Gilberts are nice to have -- they deny your 4e in the central pacific. Speaking of 4Es how is their training coming along? You have a window here before his better planes come along to make some hay with them I think.

The Aluetians are just horrible for Japan to fight over, imho.

Have you thought he is simply grabbing what victory points seem easy and will be settling in for a defensive war? In Greyjoy's game I think he established several festungs, but his rear area was weakly held.

Mr. Kane has really trashed your merchant fleet, but surprisingly few big ship losses. Combine that threat with pdu off, and he has to be worried a bit.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Nice results with the AAA there is OZ! Hopefully he's left the good pilots in them. Odd he came in so low. With the solid mistake free opening it's good to know he'll blunder once in a while, right? [:)]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I agree with Lowpe. I don't think the Samoas are as strategically important as you seem to be thinking. Yes, it would suck if he had them. However, him having them does several things for you, assuming you avoid 1/1/1943 AV ratio. Which you should be able to do - he would need Australia and India, IMO...you should do some base VPs math - put it in a spreadsheet, I did! In any case, here's why you shouldn't worry too much about it:

1) Extends his SLOC, especially applicable once you have 40% working torps in 1943 - or 44% regular effectiveness, almost an every other attack instead of one in every five.
1a) If he really wants to isolate Australia with this, he needs to take the Gilberts or you can just thrust straight through there and really cut off whatever of his is S of your line of advance.

2) Provides low hanging fruit for your first amphibious invasions in late 1942 or early-mid 1943, which is also about the time you're able to cut his SLOC...meaning anything he has defending it is easily destroyed in place. Which means more VPs back on your side.

3) Even if you need to do something in 1942 about VPs for the AV ratio, Allied ships (by and large) have the endurance to take long, long circuitous routes to their destinations.

4) His moves make more sense as a very quick advance to push you back as far as possible, giving him more time to shore up the "inner" empire. I'm thinking AV is his "nice to get it done, but probably won't happen" plan - he would need to be pushing harder and faster( and better and stronger) in China, not to mention possible VP grabs against Ceylon and Calcutta. If he can take all of these high Allied multiplier bases, like Noumea, and simply sit on them to prevent you from getting the VPs...and grab as many permanent VPs from LCUs/industry as he can. I think you've done a good job of avoiding shipping losses, which is always a great way to gain permanent VPs for either side.


It all adds up to a plan to make you play more cautiously in 1943, lest a naval debacle on your end tilt the VPs over the 4:1 ratio. Or 3:1 in 1944.

ORIGINAL: offenseman

I'd harass him at Tabituea as soon as possible. Maybe let him build the airbase a bit for you though. That could be a long term step toward controlling Christmas Island down the road. Lots of JFB like to do that. Even if that is not the case. Tabituea is a great island to have a Japan. It is good for area denial as it can be made large enough to use 4e bombers. He may invest heavily in keeping it as long as possible.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I think it's dangerous to assume a premature stop to the Japanese expansion. Many people around here have proven that the IJN can continue to support offensive operations well into 1942, even into the summer and fall. They may not be advancing everywhere anymore, but it can still be done. You're still in February? Don't get too gung-ho about counter-attacking just yet...

For all that I said earlier, I was mainly responding to the hypothetical of a Japanese victory in the Samoas. I think it is a reasonable place for you to fight him as you should have several mid-sized airfields in the area (Pago Pago, Suva, Savaii itself?) and it's about equidistant to Hawaii and Rabaul/Truk, right? I don't think I would risk tangling with a full KB until you have Hornet and are carrying extra VMF planes to supplement your CAP, plus LBA - all the usual, but...you know.

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I´m starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36297 troops, 643 guns, 696 vehicles, Assault Value = 1289

Defending force 57440 troops, 569 guns, 237 vehicles, Assault Value = 1487

Japanese adjusted assault: 457

Allied adjusted defense: 2587

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3403 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 63 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 135 (23 destroyed, 112 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 84 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 37 (12 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Ground combat at Malaybalay (80,90)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12745 troops, 116 guns, 36 vehicles, Assault Value = 302

Defending force 10815 troops, 53 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 167

Japanese adjusted assault: 203

Allied adjusted defense: 175

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
46th Division
32nd Nav Gsn Unit

Defending units:
3rd PA Constabulary Regiment
103rd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Division
205th Base Sqdn
Del Monte AAF Base Force
101st PA Infantry Regiment
III Philippine Corps
505th Base Sqdn

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I´m starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.

I think he will fill in and finish off the basic conquering, but he certainly can still launch offensives, and major ones.

You may or may not get sigint warnings depending upon how crafty he wants to be.

Watch out for his paratroopers and fast transport amphib operations, it is a way for him to gain access to a base without prep and thus sigint warnings. Then the follow on divisions can be quite nasty.[:)]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I´m starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.

I think he will fill in and finish off the basic conquering, but he certainly can still launch offensives, and major ones.

You may or may not get sigint warnings depending upon how crafty he wants to be.

Watch out for his paratroopers and fast transport amphib operations, it is a way for him to gain access to a base without prep and thus sigint warnings. Then the follow on divisions can be quite nasty.[:)]

Good advice! [:)]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




I think he will fill in and finish off the basic conquering, but he certainly can still launch offensives, and major ones.

You may or may not get sigint warnings depending upon how crafty he wants to be.

Watch out for his paratroopers and fast transport amphib operations, it is a way for him to gain access to a base without prep and thus sigint warnings. Then the follow on divisions can be quite nasty.[:)]

Good advice! [:)]

You can still get sig int on the units loading on the Fast Transport, and I believe that even though Fast Transport may avoid CD gunfire it can still suffer disruption upon landing? Also, they are typically transported with little or no supply, which can be really rough. FT TFs have their uses, but the initial wave of a truly contested landing isn't really one of them, IMO. Or even the second wave.

FWIW, in my game against Arto he had 2 or 3 divisions prepped to retake Tabiteuea, which I had only lightly garrisoned and in the midst of a bunch of other, larger garrisons in the Gilberts. I never got a sig int hit on them, or at least not one that I noticed. If I had, I would have distributed my forces differently.

Well, that's not true. I did get a sig int hit on one of the divisions...the day after the base fell. 29th Division is located at Tabiteuea - thanks boys, I knew that already!

Morning Air attack on 15th Division, at 81,40 , near Ankang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
SB-III x 15
Hudson I x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
160 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Morning Air attack on 37th Division, at 81,40 , near Ankang

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Allied aircraft
Hudson I x 9

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
158 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ground combat at 81,40 (near Ankang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 43987 troops, 470 guns, 361 vehicles, Assault Value = 1217

Defending force 17240 troops, 125 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 333

Japanese adjusted assault: 158 [X(][X(][X(]

Allied adjusted defense: 565

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: supply(-) [X(]

Japanese ground losses:
935 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
795 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 33 (7 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Assaulting units:
37th Division
15th Division
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade

Defending units:
18th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment

Submarine attack near Miri at 65,84

Japanese Ships
AK Sakito Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS O20

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

AK Sakito Maru is sighted by SS O20
SS O20 launches 2 torpedoes at AK Sakito Maru

Submarine attack near Miri at 65,84

Japanese Ships
AK Yamasimo Maru, Torpedo hits 1

Allied Ships
SS O20

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

AK Yamasimo Maru is sighted by SS O20
SS O20 launches 2 torpedoes at AK Yamasimo Maru