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The problem with a 400 hellcat CAP is the following:

They will outnumber the Japanese fighter component of the strike (isolating and engaging the escort while a significant part of the CAP is free to engage bombers)
They will be faster then the Japanese fighters (better capability to get to a better - safer - position then the Japanese fighter)
They have a better climb rate then the Japanese fighters (better capability to get to a better position)
They have an altitude advantage against the Japanese fighters (better position)
They are free to engage the enemy strike (no need to protect slow bombers)
They have better armour and better guns then the Japanese aircraft (resulting in one pass, one kill while receiving fewer losses)
They will have equal or better experience then the Japanese pilots in this stage of the war

The only advantage the Japanese fighters will have is manoeuvrability... and that is hard to exploit if the enemy is not playing your game.... (dogfight)

I have put hundreds of hours into online flightsimming (BGE) and while taking into account the fact that it is just a game/sim - I would love to go up against a raid of 500 japanese aircraft with 400 experienced pilots - I wonder how many of the enemy would survive in the end.....

So, the results are consistent with expectations.  As IJN you have to be very careful and plan any attack after late '42, otherwise the superior USN a/c will have a significant advantage.  Even then the IJN needs some luck to succeed. 
 
I think this is exactly what C&G accomplished.  Kudo's.  Not easy to do by any measure.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,112
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 26
A6M5 Zero x 151
A6M5b Zero x 17
A6M5c Zero x 35
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 36

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 44
SBD-5 Dauntless x 144
TBF-1 Avenger x 54

Japanese Ships
I will post a screen shot of the damage later. Shoho is fairly heavily damaged, the others could all make it if not for allied subs, which will probably find some of them.
CV Taiho, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Kasagi
CV Ikoma, Bomb hits 1
CV Zuikaku, Torpedo hits 1
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 2
CVL Chiyoda, Bomb hits 1
CVL Shoho, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
CVL Chitose, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVL Zuiho
CVL Ryujo
CL Kitakami
DD Fumizuki
DD Hatsukaze
DD Kuroshio, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Makigumo
DD Takanami
DD Onami

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Taiho
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Shoho

This strike is from the CVEs

1st AE lesson learned: less CAP, more escorts: If the Allies managed to have more Hellcat to cover this strike, probabily it would have hurt IJN badly.

Castor,

There are a few problems with your reply and basically they boil down to the use of hyperbole and it presentation as fact rather than the use of facts....

The enemy sent in 500+ aircraft from KB (believe me, these surely were trained ones)

Probably but the level of their training and the A2A skill differential with your Hellcats is unknown. So, crucially, is the level of their defensive training which is the crucial skill in determining whether they will survive the initial diving attack and engage in a much more even battle with your fighters.

My opponent must be quite a couple of times more stupid than you

It isn't a matter of stupidity so much as judgement and only picking the right kinds of fights. I fight VERY selectively so when I do fight even though I may be escorting bombers I stack as many other things in my favour as possible and vs Zeroes have achieved 1:1 ( sometimes better, sometimes a little worse ) kill rates vs them with my escorting fighters. Is it easy to do? No. Is it possible every time? No. Is it, however, possible much of the time if you plan properly? Yes.

Is your opponent planning these things properly operationally? It doesn't seem so to me from my reading of your AAR. He allowed his strikes to go in in highly sub-optimal conditions and, rightly, took massive losses for it.

My PBEM is scen 2 and believe me, no matter what you do, you would not score a 1:1 in escorts vs Hellcat Cap against me as there´s nothing you can do, other than to change the code and that´s not possible for you.

This is an example of hyperbole masquerading as fact. The only fact contained in the above sentence is that you are a playing a Scenario 2 PBEM - as am I. Everything else is mere conjecture. I would point out also that abandoning hope of finding a counter is the first step to never looking for a counter. If you don't look for something then, unsurprisingly, you'll never find it. This train of logic is why I believe you haven't found the counters to "diving CAP" which I have. Since you KNOW ( albeit that this KNOWing is unsupported by facts ) there is no counter you don't look for it and thus don't find it.

Don't take that personal Nemo, but we seem to have two completely different versions of the game, which isn´t the case.

Yes, which is why I find it disappointing, but not surprising, that when we achieve different results your only position is that the results you obtain are the ONLY way things can turn out. Surely if you accept, as you do, that we are playing the same scenario and game then if you cannot achieve 1:1 exchange rates vs diving CAP but I CAN then perhaps you should look into what I'm doing that you aren't?

After all, why should I be getting better results than you if we're using the same scenario and game? Maybe I'm doing something different and better and thus am getting the rewards for my attention to detail and operational planning?

The problem, of course, is that since you have decided that you KNOW there is no possibility of doing anything different that precludes the possibility that I'm doing anything different and thus there can be no explanation for my doing better...... despite the fact that after reading your AAR I have clearly stated I can identify things I do differently than you or your opponent and that within those areas I can find the reasons for the different exchange rates.

You choose to simply ignore the evidence which doesn't agree with your position and then substitute hyperbole for facts. This is a pity because you have spotted issues with the game but your unwillingness to engage with facts and an open mind undercuts your ability to contribute to correcting the game's issues.


As to playstyle etc:
Well the mechanics of defeating diving CAP are not related to numbers so while I appreciate the jibe it is, again, not germaine to the discussion and not the reason underlying the differences in results.

I would also point out that in my game there are many examples where 20 or 30 planes have faced off on each side and escorting fighters have gotten the better of defending, diving CAP. So, objectively I can prove that this is independent of numbers and not a result of a knee point statistical factor.


Lastly, given that my opponent is setting his fighter CAP at maximum altitude for Zeroes and Oscars etc how WOULD you explain the fact that I can get a better than 1:1 ratio vs Zeroes and roughly 1:1 vs Oscars using P40s, Hurricanes or Wildcats in April 1942? Objectively I can, even though you hyperbolically claim this is impossible ( my numbers in my AAR are supported by the Combat Reports). So, basing this in fact can you explain away those numbers without resorting to hyperbole?

Feel free to post any response to my AAR so we can continue the discussion there. I don't want to pollute C&Gs AAR any more than necessary.




As tot he 442 fighters you had facing the IJA raids, let us look at it in a non-hyperbolic manner....

1st raid: 442 Allied fighters vs 131 Zeroes, 80 torpedo bombers and 132 divebombers.
confirmed kills in the CR were 11 IJNAAF fighters and 115 strike planes. Given that there were over 3 Allied fighters to every IJNAAF escort that doesn't seem at ALL unreasonable to me. Hell, in the real war the Allies would have been a bit disappointed not to have killed more based on historical loss rates in several battles.


2nd raid: 394 Allied fighters vs 56 IJNAAF fightyers and 49 strike planes.

So, IJNAAF fighters were outnumbered 7 to 1. Hardly a recipe for a good exchange rate. In reality a fighter squadron outnumbered 7 to 1 is bound to take excessive losses. Lanchester laws and the history of aerial combat demand that it is so... ESPECIALLY when they are outnumbered 7:1 and tied to escorting strike planes ( which means they won't even get the opportunity to launch an attack at their own time of choosing with an altitude advantage ).


3rd IJNAAF strike:
428 Allied fighters faced 94 IJNAAF fighters and 82 strike planes.
The IJNAAF escorts were outnumbered about 4.5 : 1 and tied to close escort strike planes.


4th IJNAAF strike:
397 Allied fighters faced 11 Zeroes and 11 strike planes. With odds of over 30:1 in fighters the IJNAAF did poorly.


5th IJNAAF strike:
317 Allied fighters fought 24 IJNAAF fighters and 42 strike planes.
Outnumbered 13 to 1+ the IJNAAF fighters didn't do that well... Unsurprisingly when each IJNAAF fighter could be facing up to 10 Hellcats and were flying inferior planes they did poorly.

There is NOTHING surprising about this.

The USN managed to achieve massive concentration of force with an average of 4+ fighters in the air for every escorting Zero. They also had less fatigue, superior positioning and could attack at a time and from a position of their choosing. As additional USN planes entered the fray on already committed Zeroes ( which were already "low and slow" from evading the initial passes ) the position snowballed - just as it does in real life - with Zeroes which survived the initial passes being in gradually worsening positions to survive additional, newly arriving Hellcats which dived on them.

This is how things happened in real life too.

This battle follows the Lanchester laws clearly insofar as once a great disparity in force is established it is followed by an even greater disparity in exchange rates which increase at a logarithmic rate.

So, when you examine the strikes with a little common sense and look at the extent to which IJNAAF fighters were outnumbered there really aren't any surprises here at all. I'm disappointed you chose not to analyse these strikes beyond the obvious as the causes for the disparate results are really rather obvious and tied into the fact that your opponent didn't maximise his advantages or minimise his disadvantages. He COULD have put in better strikes than this if he had planned things better and that would have resulted in less loss for greater payback to him.

But he committed in a sub-optimal manner and given that your fighters vastly outnumbered his, had superior airframes, superior positioning and could take advantage of the Lanchester Laws and the logarithmic worsening in energy differential which accrues vis a vis escorting fighters and newly arriving CAP ( of which there was a lot given the vast outnumbering by the Allies ) the outcome was inevitable.

It seems to me that you may be unaware of the effect of this differential which is clearly created during combat since you don't seem to have accounted for its effect at all in your partial analysis.

I have decided to retreat the KB. The undamaged carriers will provide air cover for the damaged ones. Our pace of retreat for now is limited to 4 hexes per turn, so we will still be in striking range of any remaining allied carriers/surface ships in the morning. I have put the carriers into just three TFs so that the number of escorting DDs could be increased for each group. I also put a BB into each carrier group to help provide protection from surface raiders. It seems to me that the allies may try for a surface intercept during the night.

Tough call. 

7 IJ CV/CVE/CVL's are either near or over 50% damage, so they are borderline air op's.  That's a major loss. 

I think I would have pursued. 

The only reason is the date.  You are already at a VERY late point in the game for the IJN.  Given USN repair capabilities, you will be facing most of this damaged TF again in 90 days in a renewed offensive.  If you can sink more of the cripples, you force that out to +200, maybe even as much as 400, days for replacements. Even if you lose all of your CV force in getting the cripples, the allies cannot advance without CV air cover.  You can defend without it.  Granted, not as efficiently, but the point is they cannot advance.

Just my thoughts...

PS: BUT, given how well you are playing, I am 100% POSITIVE that you have made the correct decision.  I just have to figure out the errors in my reasoning to improve my game!!!  [X(]

So where do we stand now C&G ? Do you have the turn back yet ?

I think pulling back was the smart move.

Don't get greedy while you're still relatively unscathed.

You'll want that mobile striking power to keep the Allies on their toes while they rebuild their carrier fleets.

Depending on the final tally of the Battle, once KB has been restocked with greenish pilot, using it on fairly low risk missions to train it again would be the clever thing to do. Actually retaking Ponape would'nt be a bad move : bombard for a bit then invade.. He will have a hard time covering it. What is the situaiton in the Indian Ocean, Burma front ?

ORIGINAL: veji1

Depending on the final tally of the Battle, once KB has been restocked with greenish pilot, using it on fairly low risk missions to train it again would be the clever thing to do. Actually retaking Ponape would'nt be a bad move : bombard for a bit then invade.. He will have a hard time covering it. What is the situaiton in the Indian Ocean, Burma front ?

Yep, limited counter invasions with KB support would be excellent while you have no fear of reprisal.

Meanwhile, when not using the KB on the offensive, you can use it to prevent the Allies from attempting further landings.

Just try to keep it near where you think the enemy wants to push.

I'm not so sure ... Ponape w/LBA and the USN right now would be fight I would take as the allies.  It about a draw on a/c and on the defensive that gives me enough advantage that I take the chance.
 
The problem, as I see it (and I will absolutely deny anything close to 20/20 [;)]) is that with C&G CV damages right now the KB isn't strong enough to go offensive against LBA+USN.  Plenty strong for continued defense.  Easily can handle raids almost anywhere.  By the time C&G repairs his carriers, the USN ones will be repaired.  So what he has now is about 90 days stalemate.  Really good for this point in time.  However, after 90 days, the allies are back on offensive footing.... and they lost far fewer pilots and a/c.

I am not in any way calling for an offensive right now. In any circumstances the dust first needs to settle on this battle : Has C&G sunk 3/4 CVs or 6/7 ? etc... Give him the week he needs to get his ships safe, and then he will be able to plan based on the availability of his CVs, the quality of his KB AF, his estimate of the abilities of the allies for the nead future, etc...

Oct. 27, 1943

This will just be a quick report on the day's action. I will not be able to actually do anything until tomorrow. But my plans right now are leaning in the direction of splitting up the KB and going for some deep raids aimed at allied LOC between PH and the Marshalls, Capetown-Australia, and maybe even San-Fran-PH. Once the cripples are safely out of danger (at least from air and surface threats) then the fast carriers will head off into the CentPac/EastPac zone while the CVEs head off into the IO. I am not going to try to regain Ponape, a hopeless task. If any place shows the potential for a counter offensive, it is Darwin and/or the Aleutians. I will consider this. Regardless, Japan now has undisputed carrier superiority to such a degree that she must launch at least some sort of naval offensive designed to slow down the allied build up in the CentPac and Australia regions.

The turn starts with some pay back for the allies. Just when I thought these guys had successfully exited the danger zone.
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Sub attack near Marcus Island at 119,94

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo, Torpedo hits 2 (34 float, 28 major/9 engine, 2 major)
DD Oshio
E Sanae
DD Asagumo
DD Yamagumo
DD Natsugumo
DD Arashio

Allied Ships
SS Balao, hits 1

SS Balao launches 6 torpedoes at CV Junyo

An allied destroyer shot up by CD guns is still too nimble to be hit by 8 torpedoes. Stupid sub skipper!
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Sub attack near Kusaie Island at 122,115

Japanese Ships
SS I-159

Allied Ships
DD Lansdowne, heavy damage

The CVE Santee, OTOH, is not so lucky. This is the one CVE that I thought might still be afloat after yesterday's action. Not anymore.
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Sub attack near Ponape at 121,114

Japanese Ships
SS I-26

Allied Ships
CVE Santee, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

SS I-26 launches 6 torpedoes

Now come a series of air attacks on assorted allied TFs, as well as a few feeble allied attempts to counter attack. Their carriers have cleared out of the area, leaving behind numerous surface forces composed of destroyers that I assume were trying to intercept the KB but missed.

This raid is coming out of Truk
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Kusaie Island at 123,116
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 23
P1Y1 Frances x 9

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 12

Allied Ships
AKA Jupiter, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk [Jupiter was already damaged in yesterday's action]
AM Requisite


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Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,109
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 12
A6M5b Zero x 3

Allied aircraft
SBD-5 Dauntless x 13 [these are out of Kusaie, 5 break through the CAP but are destroyed on the way home]

Japanese Ships
BB Hiei


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,114
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 19
D4Y1 Judy x 3
D4Y3 Judy x 11

Allied Ships
DD Taylor
DD Sigsbee
DD Terry

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 121,112
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 19
B6N2 Jill x 4
B6N2a Jill x 6
D4Y1 Judy x 11
D4Y3 Judy x 11

Allied Ships
DD Grayson, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DD Gwin
DD Aaron Ward, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Monssen, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Aaron Ward


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 120,114
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 3
D4Y1 Judy x 8

Allied Ships
BB Indiana, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk [I had considered Indiana sunk after yesterday, but apparently she needed one more bomb to finish her off.]


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 121,115
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 2
B6N1 Jill x 9

Allied Ships
DD Dent, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Drayton
DD Lamson

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,114
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 7

Allied Ships
DD Strong


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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,114
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 7
P1Y1 Frances x 9

Allied Ships
DD Sigsbee
DD Terry
DD Strong

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 120,114
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 6
B6N2 Jill x 2

Allied Ships
DMS Hovey

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 121,112
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 6
A6M5c Zero x 19
D4Y1 Judy x 18
D4Y3 Judy x 15

Allied Ships
DD Aaron Ward, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk
DD Monssen, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Aaron Ward
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Monssen

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 121,115
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 3
B6N2 Jill x 3

Allied Ships
DD Drayton

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,114
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 26
B6N2 Jill x 2
D4Y1 Judy x 24

Allied Ships
DD Strong, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Taylor
DD Terry
DD Sigsbee, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
DD Trathen, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Trathen


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 121,115
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 6
B6N1 Jill x 1
D4Y3 Judy x 19

Allied Ships
DD Lamson, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Drayton

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Lamson


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 120,114
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 3

Allied Ships
DMS Boggs, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk [Lucky shot!]


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 118,109
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 2
A6M5 Zero x 17
A6M5b Zero x 3

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 11

Japanese Ships
BB Hiei

Finally, Ponape was captured by the following forces:
Assaulting units:
767th Tank Battalion
1st USMC Corps Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
33rd Infantry Division
7th Infantry Division
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
I US Amphib Corps /1

Do you think some of the DD groups might be escorts to a hurt ship that sank?  Any changes in ship VP's?

I look forward to the final tally of the battle.

edit : by the way, did the allies lose more planes from the "ground" column of the plane losses, indicating further loaded carrier sinkings ?

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown
BB Indiana, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk [I had considered Indiana sunk after yesterday, but apparently she needed one more bomb to finish her off.]

I think this is going to be the truth for a good number of his CV/L/E too. I think he did actually not loose as much as it would presently look like. Allied damage control is excellent, and surely one should not count a ship sunk unless it can be confirmed unambiguously. Unless you can exploit your success and take down the 7 damaged CV, and some of the other cippled CVL, CVE and BB, this battle is actually more a draw now.

Come on, a draw is excessive. At worse he sank 4 CVs, 2CVLs, 4 or 5 CVEs and 2 or 3BBs... This is not a draw. This might not be a warchanger, just a 4/6 months push back, but still, it qualifies as a pretty nice victory..

Right, draw isn't the correct term -- "warchanger" is what I meant.  Let's wait any see what the final result will be.  Too bad witpqs ain't posting, I would be really tempted to check.  Also the planned interdiction of the LOC to Pearl, WC, OZ and India might result in some low hanging fruit...

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown
BB Indiana, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk [I had considered Indiana sunk after yesterday, but apparently she needed one more bomb to finish her off.]

I think this is going to be the truth for a good number of his CV/L/E too. I think he did actually not loose as much as it would presently look like. Allied damage control is excellent, and surely one should not count a ship sunk unless it can be confirmed unambiguously. Unless you can exploit your success and take down the 7 damaged CV, and some of the other cippled CVL, CVE and BB, this battle is actually more a draw now.

why is it a draw? If he would have only sunk one CV or one BB it would be a Japanese win. Japanese aircraft and pilots can be replaced, no Japanese or Allied ship will be replaced. And there were sure far more than one * (add in ship type) sunk with the Allied not even able to strike back.

And also heavily damaged CVs (those that would be in sinking condition but making it) can be out of the war for a hell a long time. I had two heavily damaged carriers and both nearly needed a year repair time.

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Castor, see above. To me it presently looks more like a major tactical victory, and several ships may be out for several months. Perhaps C&G can exploited this success now and make it a strategic victory, a "war-changer".

After all, the degree to which this is a victory will lastly be defined by the capabilities that witpqs and C&G still have left, and how the game will continue now. It could be possible that witpqs will be defeated by auto-victory conditions if C&G can exploit his situation now, while witqs is ripped of the initiative. Then, of course, it also will be a strategic victory.