Now when the land rings with the clash of arms –No soliinvictus please

[fcharton]

January 29th 1942,

Chance has her whims, but her habits are unknown (Joseph Bertrand)

The sound of iron bottoms

With Allied surface forces nowhere in sight (my opponent says this will change soon, we'll see...), I almost smiled when a small task force appeared tonight in Tulagi. There were one light cruiser, Dragon, and four destroyers, Paul Jones, Barker, Bulmer, and Le Triomphant (see? the Allies love those French names too).

I don’t quite understand what they were up to. Tulagi is not the kind of base where you would find shipping to destroy, it is certainly not a transportation hub, invading in January doesn’t seem like a good idea, and bombardments with a light cruiser will probably not do much damage.

But here they were, and Chance had one of her whims, because I had ships there too: a cargo, a light cruiser and a destroyer. That was unintended, they were left behind because of a forgotten “remain on station” order, but they did fight the intruders. The cargo was sunk, DD Barker was hit and set on fire, DD Bulmer was hit too (while my anachronistic Japanese gunners were shouting “die Microsoft, die!”). CL Kuma and DD Matsukaze (wind in the pines?) are fine (a few units of system damage each), and will now retire to Shortlands.

Unimportant as this battle might be, I am happy with the message it conveys to my opponent. His last raid, around the Kuriles was met by destroyers, this one hits a light surface force. This seems to imply I am defending my front bases (which I’m not). And if this goes on, it might discourage such early raids and therefore preserve my navy.

Have planes, will fumble

Something I have yet to learn is to not use my units when I don’t need to.

Over Java, a couple of missions sank a minesweeper, damaged a cargo, and punched holes in a few runways. Over Magwe, two enemy bombers were shot, for no damage to my oilfields. But then, I thought it would be a good idea to sweep Chittagong… Two zeroes were lost to the Hurricanes there.

For some strange reason, I also sent bombers over Liuchow. Apparently, the escort flew alone, and eleven Idas were shot down by the AVG.

These losses are not terrible, but still, I am losing way too many planes to useless actions. I need to learn not to act.

Chinese odds and ends

In the South, the Chinese corps I ousted from Pakhoi marched through the jungles into Vietnam. This triggered automatic reinforcements in Indochina. Four Vietnamese static divisions are now in place, and will free a couple of units from garrison duty. This also seems to hinder the flow of supply and fuel. I am checking this tomorrow, but might need to add a few convoys from the Pescadores.

At the other end of China, Kiuchuan was captured. About four thousand tons of supplies were left in the base. I am leaving a regiment, in case the enemy tries to come back, and will push west towards Ansi and Hami. Once these (and Yenan) are captured, my northern supply lines will be safe until Soviet invasion.

In Yenan, reinforcements are a week away. Out of boredom, I staged a deliberate attack, that achieved 1:1 ratio, and reduced the fortifications to level 1. I will go on tomorrow, but supplies are low, and the troops will then need to rest for a while. Yet, it seems clear that the days of Yenan are numbered… Once the city falls, attacks along the northern loop of the Yellow River become impossible: the supply path to Sian is more than 100 points long…

To the east, several Chinese corps were isolated in the Shansi mountains between Tatung and Taiyuan. They are now marching on Taiyuan. I have a division and a regiment there, and might throw in, for good measure, another division now moving towards Yenan. Overall, about 80 000 troops, or 1200 AV, are trapped between Yenan and Taiyuan.

Deep pockets

In Chuhsien, the Chinese are retreating towards Wenchow. I am trying to create a large pocket, from Ningbo to Foochow. I believe it could succeed. Rescue forces are too far away, the enemy is probably already in bad shape, and I am on the “fast side”, benefiting from major roads which allow me to shift troops around faster than my opponent can.

There are about 100 000 troops in the pocket, about 10% of Chinese forces at game start. Here is a map of the current situation. Red arrows are phase one : closing the pocket, and white arrows the later moves. I believe the whole Wenchow garrison could be annihilated by the end of February.

[fcharton]

January 30th, 1942

The war is going through a period of consolidation, now. In the SRA, most of my troops are either in Singapore or in Clark Field. Until Singapore falls, very little will happen. In China, Japanese troops are maneuvering to close the pocket in Wenchow, waiting for the enemy in Taiyuan, and moving slowly across country around Sian.

I will take advantage of this lack of activity to post a summary of the war so far (since we are at the end of the month). But first, the daily report…

Boats in Batavia, and the empty jungle of Burma

After Surabaya, bombers from Singkawang, Balikpapan and Macassar have been visiting Tjilatjap, Denpasar and Batavia. The first two bases seem empty of ships or planes, but there were a good number of minesweepers in Batavia. Not a great victory, admittedly…

This absence of any ships, apart from those that could not flee, confirms something about enemy intentions. Like the East Indies and Burma, Java and Sumatra are apparently left undefended (or, rather, unreinforced: the Dutch garrisons are still there).

In Burma, Toungoo and Taung Gyi were captured today. Bombing raids over Magwe have stopped. I believe the enemy will try with other planes (B17?), or perhaps sweep the place first. I’m fine with this: fighting over my bases.

I believe I like this ‘absolute Robin’ strategy. It makes the capture of the SRA is a nice and painless affair. The enemy gets to keep his troops, I get to keep mine, and then we fight it out with him the attacker. I’m cool with this.

Yenan or bust

My troops attacked again in Yenan. Fatigue was high, and odds ended at 1:5, with lots of disablements, but the forts are now reduced to zero. I will rest two days, attack, and Red China will be history.

My strategy in China is slowly evolving. Until now, I was mostly trying to seize land and resources, and the Chinese were pushed back over a line which goes from Lanchow, to Sian, Changsha, Kukong and Nanning. With the Burma road, and the Silk road, cut, supply situation can only degrade (I suspect it is pretty bad already, apparently my opponent wasted a large part of his initial stocks repairing industry in Changsha, and replacing some units in the North). Since I am not rushed here, I am now trying to eliminate the enemy forces left behind.


Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part one)

Welcome to the summary, gaijin!

If you are catching up on this AAR, this is the right place to begin, if you have been following regularly, you still might enjoy the story without the details.

We are at the end of January 1942. After a very bloody first week which caught this Japanese player unprepared, Allied surface forces evacuated the East Indies, leaving the Dutch alone to fight the Japanese. From mid December to mid January, Japan captured, against little opposition, the Celebes, Moluccas, Borneo, Malaya, Burma, Mindanao, Northern New Guinea and Timor. Allied troops in the region concentrated in Singapore and Clark Field. Both are now besieged.

In China, the northern plains have been conquered in December, and two Japanese columns progressing through the Gobi desert, captured Ningsia and Kiuchuan, cutting, Turkestan from China proper. Yenan is now under siege, and large armies have been concentrating in the forests east of Sian, trying to maneuver and cut enemy supply lines.

In the South, Hong Kong, Wuchow and the coast fell in December. The Fujian hinterland was taken, while the enemy fell back on Wenchow, where a large pocket was created. Throughout January, the Chinese defenders tried to break out, around Chuhsien, but so far their efforts were foiled.

Here is a map of current Japanese advance. The front line is in red, significant enemy pockets in green.



So far, Japan lost 770 planes, 70 ships and about 170 army points (1 point=6 squads or devices). The Allies lost 750 planes, 130 ships, and over 1800 army points. The first week of the war accounts for half ship losses, one third of downed planes, and two thirds of Japanese ground losses. Victory points are 7450/8750, a 1.17:1 ratio for the Allies.

Right now, there really are two different wars.

In the SRA, we have a drôle de guerre, as Japan is filling the vacuum left by retreating Allied troops. From time to time, retreating Allies accumulate somewhere, and a siege happens which sometimes fails to slow Japanese advance (eg Pegu), and sometimes blocks it (Singapore, Palembang), but overall the war there is painless, dull and mechanical.

China, on the other hand, has grown into the major theater. So far, progress was facilitated by changes in Chinese strategy. In December, it seems my opponent wanted to concentrate his troops in a few key bases (Chengchow, Loyang, Wenchow, Nanyang). This caused him to abandon a few good ones (Tsiaotso, and the Fujian hinterland), and failed to delay Japanese concentration in the central plains. In South China, concentration created the Wenchow pocket. In the north, for some reason, the enemy decided to abandon its bases.

As a result, Japan captured lots of ground, for very little cost, but Chinese forces remain very strong. Supply is the key here. Once the Chinese are unsupplied, those big stacks will lose their teeth.

[fcharton]

Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part two) - operation Durian

The conquest of Malaya was done overland, without additional landings in Kuantuan or Mersing. Few troops were engaged, four infantry regiments marched South against scant opposition. Johore, the southernmost base, fell on the twelfth of January.

Significant battles were :
The Battle for Kota Baru, on the eight, where the 56th Infantry routed two Indian brigades and destroyed a base force.
The Battle of Georgetown, on the 16th, where the first Tank Regiment and the 42nd Infantry seized the fortress.

[fcharton]

Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part three) – Operation Saperlipopette

The conquest of Burma involved the Imperial Guard Division, reinforced by an infantry regiment, a tank regiment, and engineers. All troops assembled in Northern Thailand, and marched on Moulmein and the coast during the second half of December.

The only notable engagement was the battle of Pegu, a series of clashes between the 30th of December and the 7th of January, when the troops defending Rangoon, the Rangoon BAF, the 1st Gloucestershire, the 4th and 6th Burma Rifles, and the BFF brigades were pushed, routed, and destroyed.

Schwebo, the last base in the plains, will probably fall on the third or fourth of February.

[fcharton]

Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part four) – Operation Mighty lightning dragon sword

I know, I told them.... When picking a name for an operation name, words like mighty, lightning, dragon or sword sound professional, Tom Clancy-ish, even, but the four of them put together sound plain silly.

Well, long story short, the planning guys at the EIHQ (Evil Imperial Headquarters) wouldn’t listen. But then, what do you expect from guys who picked the name Evil Imperial Headquarters for themselves?

Anyway, gaijin, operation MLDS (yeah, doesn’t work either as an acronym, now it sounds like the name of some exotic venereal disease) is the name the sillies at EIHQ picked for our push on the Celebes and Borneo.

The original war plan considered an early drive in the Celebes as a purely tactical maneuver. The goal was to draw Allied surface forces there, and therefore protect our landings in northern Borneo. Since Allied forces did not fight, and actually evacuated the theater, we used this opportunity to launch early strikes against Borneo, the Celebes and Timor.

Most of the advances happened in the second half of December. In January, Japan mostly invaded small bases, and regrouped troops (esp in Balikpapan) for the next stage, the invasion of Java.

Here is a map of the operation. Red arrows are the initial moves, yellow the follow-up, and the date of capture of important bases is indicated in white.

[fcharton]

January 31st, 1942

The major piece of news today is the evacuation of Chuhsien. Apparently, the enemy is retreating towards Wenchow (they cannot go forward, anyway). One headquarter unit had been left behind, and was routed by my garrison. The Wenchow pocket is closing, it will probably be complete the day after tomorrow.

Near Sian, Allied troops bombarded. 2200 Chinese AV againt 2000 Japanese, in closed terrain, and behind field fortifications, this is a waste of supplies.

In Borneo, the SNLF battalion which had been trying to take Sambas for weeks, without success, was reinforced at last. A first attack reduced the forts. I am resting tomorrow, and attacking.

This is pretty much all for today, everywhere, my troops are resting.

Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part five) – Central and South China

When the war began, Japanese plans for this area were limited to the capture of Hong Kong and the coastal bases of Kwangchowan and Pakhoi. Apart from Pakhoi, which needed more time than expected, everything went fine.

North (East on the map), Chinese retreat towards Wenchow allowed fast capture of Kanhsien, Chuhsien and Pucheng. I believe my opponent made a strategic error. Wenchow is difficult to defend, but if you want to do so, you need to hold bases in Fujian. As a result, most of January was spent trying to extricate his troops, without much success. It now seems likely that the troops that retreated into Wenchow are lost for good.

[fcharton]

Turn exchange rate has been very slow lately. I am finding out that tempo is a crucial factor for maintaining interest in such long games. Depending on one’s schedule, there seem to be an “optimal tempo” for each player. Mine is probably around six turns a week. More than that, it gets frustrating since I lack the time to play my turns correctly, less than that (we’re around three right now) and it becomes a bit difficult to keep up with the storyline, and maintain interest.

The worst thing with this is that you feel compelled to play your turns even faster, to prevent further delay in the slowing pace of the game, and this has a long term incidence on the quality of the game.

Well, at least I have an AAR to update…

February first, 1942

This might have been the least active day since the beginning of the war. Lots of attacks are scheduled for tomorrow.

Off Brisbane, RO-67 encountered the four destroyers that showed up in Tulagi a few days ago. As expected, none of them had sunk, and RO-67 missed them again.

Bombers visited Surabaya, attacking the port facilities, for the second day in a row. This time, the enemy decided to scramble his fighters, and lost a couple of planes to my Zeroes. Air to Air exchange rate is not good. I really need to rest my squadrons.


Now that the land rings the clash of arms –January 42 (part six and last) – Operation Hell in a handbasket

You might remember, dear reader, the sad story of Major Mitsui, who won the “Name your Ops” contest in Chengchow a few weeks ago, and was demoted when the name he had chosen turned out to be improper, due to a typo in the French Field Dictionary the Japanese forces used in China.

Mitsui is now in Ningsia, leading a newly created Garbage Collecting Platoon (unfortunately not represented in scenario 2, with a little luck, someone will create a Da Cleaning Babes scenario, which will include all those lesser yet essential units), and Evil Imperial Headquarters have set up a brand new outfit, the Bureau of Proper Names and Acronyms (bopna in acrospeak), dedicated to providing the Empire with all the nice and warlike names it needs.

One of the first task of the Bopna team was to find a new name for the operation in Northern China. After a long brainstorming sessions, it was agreed that “Hell” sounded quite nice, and warlike, and evil too. Of course, you can’t just name an operation “hell”, but since it was already dinner time, the most junior member of the team, Captain Yamaha, was left with the task of ‘finishing the name’, while the others went out for dinner.

Before the war, Yamaha had studied Englis. He recalled a funny expression he’d learnt then, with “hell” in it… Didn’t quite remember what it meant, though…

This is how, dear reader, the Northern China operation ended up with this strange name. So far, no one has cared to look it up, but it will eventually happen, and captain Yamaha will probably end up leading some weird unit not even in the game, in a remote base on the outskirts of the Empire.

North China was, by far, the most active theater during the first two months of the war. There were three phases in this campaign.

During the two first weeks of the war, troops from Manchukuo assembled in the plains, and chased Chinese units there. There were battles between Sinyang and Ichang, and around Kweisui and Paotow. Tsiaotso was abandoned and captured. Meanwhile, a column from Taiyuan progressed towards Sian. (White arrows and dates)

Then, at the end of December and the beginning of January, the western half of the plains were clears, Chengchow, Loyang and Nanyang fell. In the north, an armored column moving along the Yelklow River, took Ningsia. Another column progressed towards Kiuchuan. A reinforced division from Taiyuan advanced towards Yenan. (Yellow arrows and red dates)

Finally, during most of January, reinforcements moved towards Ningsia, Kiuchuan was taken, Yenan besieged, and complex maneuvers happened around Sian (blue arrows).

It seems that the enemy concentrated most of his troops around Sian. I count more than 7000 AV there, plus probably another 1000 in Lanchow, and 500 in Sining. This amounts to about one half of Chinese forces. Japan has about 6000 AV in the region.

I am quite pleased with this campaign (even though one day turns make it unfold very slowly these days).

[fcharton]

February second, 1942

Tulagi II – the cruisers strike back

The Australian navy (Canberra, Mauritius and Perth) bombarded Tulagi today. They damaged the port, and went away, waste of good ammunition, if you ask me, but then, who am I to judge…

I’m hesitating on what to do next. Mine the harbor? Base Betties in Shortlands to try and intercept the next run? Have KB roam west of Guadalcanal? Or perhaps, just leave a few easy targets next time, so that they come back, and again. I sort of like the idea of my opponent busy shadow boxing in Tulagi.

Nini, goddess of war

Today is the second of January, which in Japanese might be pronounced “nini”. I don’t quite know Japanese, so I’m mostly making this up (even though I do know two is “ni” in Japanese). So, on this eve of nini, Japan launched a number of attacks, which did not quite succeed.

In Yenan, the attack ended at 1:2, Japan had higher casualties, all disablements. Interestingly, the enemy had a “supply –“ and fortifications remained at zero, despite the presence of two construction units. A fresh brigade is arriving in three days, together with an army HQ.

In Taiyuan, I launched a first deliberate attack against the three Chinese corps that moved it. The enemy was outnumbered (887 AV vs 430), and unsupplied, yet the terrain did more than compensate, and odd ended at 1:2. Again, losses are disablements, which will heal, and I have another division arriving tomorrow. A tank regiment from Tatung has been ordered to Taiyuan. My goal is to cut the retreat of the Chinese before I attack, to force surrender en masse. (I’m fine with the respawning, when it happens, it will make a bad supply situation worse).

In Singapore, a deliberate attack ended at 1:2 again. I’m getting a lot of disabled squad, but destroy three times more than I lose. It is moving in the right direction, but very slowly.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 71576 troops, 737 guns, 166 vehicles, Assault Value = 2268
Defending force 42584 troops, 554 guns, 370 vehicles, Assault Value = 1043
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2
Japanese adjusted assault: 704
Allied adjusted defense: 1387
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Japanese ground losses:
4605 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 257 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 267 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
Vehicles lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2661 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 99 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 245 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 13 disabled
Vehicles lost 27 (7 destroyed, 20 disabled)

In Clark Field, the bombardment seems futile.

The good news today came from Borneo and Sumatra. In Sambas, the units that had resisted for a long time were finally defeated by two SNLF battalions that landed yesterday. About 150 squads were destroyed. In Palembang, the combat resulted in yet another stalemate. Both forces are fatigued, but I have a fresh regiment arriving tomorrow…

Finally, my paras from the 1st Raiding Regiment took Djambi. A few days ago, I had noticed the Djambi base force was garrisoning Palembang, which made me suspect the place was empty. The oilfield is almost undamaged (245/250). Planes are moving in tomorrow to defend them. This confirms my hunch that all forces in Southern Sumatra are now in Palembang. Once it falls, several bases will be captured in short order.

Hard learnt lessons

Over the last three weeks, Japan advanced very little, since most of my combat units are engaged in long sieges. There certainly is a lot of room for improvement in the way I conduct land battles. For example, I almost never prepped my troops, and seldom benefit from leader bonuses, because I’m not using headquarters very well. Yet, I believe I have learnt a number of things about the way land combat works.

There basically are two ways of defeating an enemy stack. The nice, painless and quick way happens when you have enough troops, one or two deliberate attacks will do the trick. For this, it seems you need to bring a number of AV equivalent to the enemy numbers, times the terrain defense multiplier of the hex. For instance, against a 400 AV stack, one division would probably be enough in clear terrain, but three would be needed in the mountains. Fortifications apparently play a role, but not as important as terrain.

If you cannot bring that many units, you have the go the slow siege route. This means attacking, and then resting, and attacking again… Each attack will slightly improve your odds, until the enemy breaks. This can take a lot of time, though, and fatigue will soon impose longer pauses between attacks. Interestingly, long sieges are not really costly, they are just slow.

I am now being slowed by the fact I tried to attack too many targets at the same time. Going for Clark Field was a mistake. I might actually take a few divisions there, and send them to Singapore, or other places.

Another huge mistake was Palembang. We’ve been fighting there for a month… I am expecting to find the place totally destroyed when I capture it. Ironically, I’m half looking forward to this, since it would make the game very interesting.

[fcharton]

Late January, 1942
The road, the woods, and the pocket

Around Sian, a very interesting situation is developing.

After the fall of Nanyang, the enemy set up two large stacks in forward positions on the roads leading to Sian (a major road south, a secondary road north). I sent troops from Nanyang along the major road, but was not strong enough to push past the roadblock There was a stalemate, I reinforced the hex, and the enemy retreated in order. The enemy stack (16 units, about 2250 AV) is now one hex east of Sian, where a garrison of 23 units (probably over 3000 AV) has been reported. I have five IJA divisions plus artillery, and we are, once more, in a stalemate. Even if he reinforces the hex with all the troops in Sian, the enemy will not be able to dislodge me. The road to Nanyang is garrisoned, so cutting my supplies won’t work. On the other hand, until he runs out of bullets, I am not strong enough to break the road block and push towards Sian.

The second blocking force (16 units in the forest west of Loyang, probably over 2000 AV as well) remained on the secondary road, in forward position. Apparently, my opponent first intended to march them across country and sever my supply lines. I doubt it could have worked: he needed two weeks to march one hex, whereas my troops were proceeding along the major road. But I will never know: after a few days march, his units seem to have refused the orders, and were reset to “no destination”. I had this happen to me once or twice, and suspect supply difficulties (my opponent says it is a bug, he might be right, too).

As a result, I find myself in a central position between his two armies, on the “right side of the road” (basically, I can move fast while he must march slowly). And this in a game opposing an Austrian to a French. Italy, anyone?

My target is the second stack. I have about 3500 AV in the area (not counting the five divisions next to Sian), in four stacks. Two garrison the road to Nanyang. One is in the plain, next to Loyang.

The last one, two divisions and two brigades, is north of the river. They were ordered south, to cut the retreat of the Loyang stack. One brigade was detached and ordered east, to lengthen enemy supply lines.

The troops east of Loyang are ready to push forward and cut enemy retreat if they move out of their present positions. Other small units were dispatched to close the pocket in the east.

As it stands, this is still a far cry from encirclement, but I believe I stand a good chance of cutting off the advanced stack, and defeat it in detail. I am more and more convinced I want to destroy those units, and let them respawn. When they are back, in a month or so, enemy supply situation will be bad, and new units will only make it worse (and then, a corps are one third strength, quartered for lack of supply, is not a frightening prospect).

[fcharton]

February 3rd, 1942


Palembang was reinforced. I now have 500 AV, against 160 enemies. I am resting a day to wash disruption off. Then, I will attack and see what’s left of the oil fields…

Around Wenchow, the pocket is now formed, and is tightening on the defenders. I expect them to surrender at the end of February.

In Western China, Ansi fell today. The enemy had evacuated the base… and left 15 planes there, which were destroyed without a fight. Chinese planes are short legged, if some are left in the west, they are lost… Next stop is Hami, in about a week, and then Urumchi and Wasu, by the end of the month. I intend to garrison those bases, and maybe chase enemy remnants. Kashgar will be left for later.

North of Lanchow, Ningsia now has an airfield, which will allow for better communications with eastern China. I have a division there, another one arriving in a few days, and two tank regiments in forward position. At the slow current pace, I could be in Lanchow by the 20th of February. I don’t think I have enough to take the place, but I want to occupy the hex, to cut the industry (90 refineries, the largest in China, and 60 light industries).



Supply calculations

Since a few days, and in anticipation of bad news from Sumatra, I have been looking closely at the supply situation in China. For those interested, here are a few numbers…

China and Burma begin the game with about 125 k supply points in bases, and 115k within Chinese units, for a grand total of 240k.

At game start, Tracker estimates total unit supply needs at 68k/month. In the game, usage was probably a big higher, since units moved and fought, but some units were also destroyed, which reduces supply needs. Supposing the two even out, LCU supply usage would run around135k for the first two months of the war.

My opponent has also tried to repair factories, notably in Changsha (I think this was a major mistake). This cost him about 110k. Finally, about 10k were captured in Burma, and 30k in China. This puts total expenses at 285k, and current unit usage a little over 2 200 points per day.

If I discount damaged factories, and those taken in the first days of the war, China has about 1060 light industries, 600 heavy industries, and 130 refineries, which can produce up to 2400 supplies per day. During the first month of the game, Burma also produced 850 points per day (including 500 via the Burma road). Summing all this yields a total production of 170k supplies since December 7th.


Summing up all this, supply stocks in China would be around 125k (give or take a few dozens). This is about twice unit monthly needs, which means that most units are probably in supply, and between 40 and 60k are stored in bases. China is not starving yet, but stocks are not high. Just to give an idea, Japan has about 180k supplies in bases in China (not counting Manchukuo, Korea, or supply within units).

Production should run around 2300 points per day, resources are barely enough to cover this, and fuel is not enough (northern refineries cover the needs of 585 Heavy factories, and with the repairs in Changsha, the enemy probably has around 650). There must be good reserves, though, since I did not capture much fuel in Burma. Overall, production just covers needs, provided the enemy does not attack, and all factories are working.


What does this evil empire make of all this?

On a strategic level, this confirms my impression that China can be defeated in 1942, but that the key to victory is not force but hunger. With 120 000 supplies, the enemy still has enough to hold his ground, divide this by three and resistance will collapse.

On an operational level, the risk of a strong enemy counterattack is very low now, as supplies would not allow it. However, most units are supplied, and it is too early for a major assault on enemy bases. A least two or three months should be spent wearing out enemy supplies. May looks like a good date for “the big push”.

On a tactical level, any action that forces the enemy to burn supplies, or that reduces production, is desirable. I will try to tempt them into battle, and to move into cities (since enemy presence stops industry).

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

On a strategic level, this confirms my impression that China can be defeated in 1942, but that the key to victory is not force but hunger. With 120 000 supplies, the enemy still has enough to hold his ground, divide this by three and resistance will collapse.

I tend to agree, particularly if the allies are not careful managing their supplies in and into China.

If you are going to pursue this strategy, it will be very interesting to watch.

[fcharton]

@Paxmondo,
I will do my best to pursue this strategy. I have grown very curious of the Chinese theater, and the idea of waging a war on two fronts is very tempting. Just keep in mind that it might be a bit slow (but then, with most units needing more than a day to move one hex, what do you expect…)

As for supply levels, against a determined Japanese player, I don’t think an Allied player can prevent China from being unsupplied by the end of 1942. The Burma Road will close in January no matter what you do, and supply convoys to Rangoon will get bombed. So you basically get a window of opportunity from late 42 until the Burma road reopens.

If the Allies are careless with supplies, what you get is a longer window, and an earlier possibility to strike. This game is perhaps an extreme (even though a stronger commitment to resource bombing might have further degraded the situation). The realisation that China would be unsupplied earlier than usual was, in fact, the reason why I pressed there.



For several weeks, the war moved at a very slow pace. In the SRA, most of my troops were stalled in Singapore and Clark Field, and the battle for Palembang dragged on. In China, Yenan was waiting for reinforcements, and slow encirclement maneuvers were being conducted around Sian and Wenchow.

This phase is ending now. I am bundling several turns, and will post by theater

February 4th, 5th, and 6th 1942, SRA and the Pacific

Fortunes at sea

The surface task force that bombed Tulagi on the second attacked Tabitauea on the fourth. Since port and airfield are still at zero, damage was very light. Tulagi has now been mined, I will probably mine Tarawa and Tabiteuea as well…

Under the sea, Japan has some success on the fourth, sinking a tanker off Perth, and a destroyer (apparently DD Bulmer, back from Tulagi, even though FOW gives another name). On the fifth, the Allies evened the score, sinking a tanker (fortunately empty) off Balikpapan, and an xAK in the port of Palembang.

On the sixth, a small enemy task force was detected between Australia and Timor. Intelligence reports two light cruisers. I doubt it, but I will send bombers tomorrow, just in case.

ASW efforts seem to be paying. Every turn, I get half a dozen attacks against enemy subs, and one hit. On the fourth it was SS Sturgeon, on the fifth, SS Sargo, and on the sixth SS Snapper (Japanese submariners have been ordered to focus on subs whose name begin with an “S”, this month). I get one or two sinking reports per week.

Most of the damage from enemy submarines is happening in the Celebes now. Around Japan, Allied submarines are probably too few, and ASW patrols too many, to hinder convoys.

The end of Palembang?

I landed in Palembang one month ago, on the sixth of January. Since then, I attacked three times a week, reinforced many times, but the Dutch defenders held, behind level two forts.

Now, the last batch of reinforcements (another infantry regiment from Malaya) apparently broke the balance. On the fifth, a first deliberate attack reduced the forts, achieved 1:1 odds, and destroyed a good number of enemy squads (34, for one Japanese squad). A second one, the next day, brought the forts to zero, and destroyed 20 more squads (for two Japanese). I am attacking tomorrow again, with a little luck, the base will fall.

After Palembang, the campaign in South Sumatra should be fairly easy. I now have almost 600 AV on the island, and the enemy apparently moved all his forces to defend the oilfields. North Sumatra is a different matter, and will be dealt with after Singapore falls.

But not of Singapore

On the fifth, another attack on Singapore managed to destroy 70 enemy squads, for 25 japanese. However, forts are back to level 3, fatigue is going up, and disablements are very high. I am sending the most disabled units to Johore, to rest and rebuild. I will go on attacking, but it seems that without fresh troops the fortress will not fall. Since I am also short of troops in Clark, I have ordered two divisions back to Batangas, which will be shipped to Malaya. This probably means two weeks of delay, during which I will rotate damaged units from Singapore to Johore. Then, the party might be sent to Luzon, to finish Clark Field off, or just dispatched to Java, leaving Luzon for a later time.

I am leaving about 700 AV in Clark. I have a few more units in nearby bases, so I can probably reach 800. The enemy has about 2400, but lots of their forces are low morale Philippine divisions. I don’t think they can drive me away, and if they try, they will burn supplies.


In other news, Schwebo, in Burma, was captured. The Imperial Guards are now moving north. A tank regiment should be in Lashio in three or four days. In Borneo, enemy troops seem to be converging on Bandjermasin. A regiment is being sent from Balikpapan to reinforce the naval guard battalion there. To prevent the enemy from attacking the reinforcement convoys, the airfield of Surabaya was bombed (and three Blenheim and three Vildebeests were destroyed on the ground).

[fcharton]

February 4th, 5th, and 6th 1942, China

Red Star down

The second mixed brigade arrived in Yenan on the fifth of February. I now have 850 AV, against 660 for the enemy, with forts reduced and supply very low. A first deliberate attacked missed the 1:1 odds by a small margin, but destroyed a good number of enemy squads. I will rest tomorrow and attack again, but it is probably a matter of days, now.

Ground combat at Yenan (88,37)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 27698 troops, 267 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 841
Defending force 24654 troops, 192 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 668
Japanese adjusted assault: 611
Allied adjusted defense: 669
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
715 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 52 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 38 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1326 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 64 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 112 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 21 disabled

In Taiyuan, three Chinese corps and a headquarter units have moved into the city are facing three Japanese divisions. I am waiting for a tank regiment from Tatung to arrive and cut their retreat before I attack. Annihilation is the key word, here.

Toy story

Around Wenchow, all enemy units have now fallen back into the city. Troops are moving overland to deny them the rough terrain around the base, and force their surrender. This should take about ten days. Meanwhile, some 1200 AV are moving along the two roads leading to Wenchow. I intend to move in as soon as possible, to cut supply production. Then, bombard to get a clear idea of what I am facing, and wait until the defenders are bottled. The end of the month seems like a reasonable target for the surrender of the garrison.

News from Sian

The long and slow maneuvers around the Loyang-Sian road are now over. The enemy is cut off, the IJA holds road hexes and all the hexsides connecting them. In this area, I have eleven divisions, plus a couple of brigades, three tank regiments, an army headquarter and lots of artillery. Two more infantry divisions are in reserve around Nanyang (and the battle of Taiyuan will soon free three more).

On the road to Loyang, the enemy stack, 18 units, and probably over 2500 AV strong, has been isolated for several days. As such, it probably cannot move (is it so? the rules say you can only move to an hex with a positive supply path, I would expect no movement is possible once a unit is cut off).

I intend to shift the bulk of my forces along the secondary road (red arrows), while keeping a minimal cordon to prevent retreat (yellow arrows). Once I have enough troops in the hex, I will attack an enemy already reduced by the lack of supply.

Can the enemy break the encirclement, and rescue the stack? Right now, the only reasonable possibility is to drive me away from the road hex east of Sian. a move south through the forest would be too slow. A move north, across the river would give me time to get prepared, and force a very expensive crossing of the Wei or the Yellow River. East of Sian, the enemy has 2200 AV, and could easily reinforce over the road. However, defensive terrain cuts both ways, and I believe that, given the low experience and probable lack of supplies of the chinese, a three division stack would make the hex very difficult to take (and then, once the enemy takes this hex, the lone stack is still cut off, and I'm still in supply...)

Overall, I have a little more than 5000 AV (plus 2000 as reserves). I believe I will leave about 2000 as blocking/cordoning forces, and take 3000 to assault the units in the woods. If this proved unsufficient, I could easily reinforce...

I expect this operation to last about two weeks. I need about 10 days to shift my troops around, and a couple more to fight. If this succeeds, a good chunk of the Sian defenders will be out of the war, and my troops will be perfectly positioned for the next phase : the drive on Sian. With a little luck, the enemy will also try to rescue them, burn supplies and incur losses in the process.

[fcharton]

February 7th, 1942

Day of infamy in Koepang

Actually, it was at night, and not THAT infamous, but it did take place in Koepang. A small task force consisting of one Dutch light cruiser and two destroyers came and bombarded. Nothing really serious: a few hits were scored on the runway, and a few support squads were disabled. The next morning, my Sallies sortied against the retreating ships, but missed.

I don’t know what to do about these raids. It is not that they do much damage, but every time I see those small task forces, I cannot help thinking this is a missed opportunity to sink a few enemy surface ships.

Since the enemy is getting a free shot, I expect him to be back, and want to use this to try a number of ideas. I am sending KB in forward position south of Tulagi, to intercept the next raid. In Koepang, I will try to position submarines close to the base, see if they can get a free shot.

What is the normal way to defend against night raids?

Targets of opportunity in Wuchang

Since the beginning of the game, units are parked next to my bases in Central China. I believe my opponent uses them as pickets, to detect invasion forces.

One of them was in clear terrain, one hex from Wuchang. I sent a division and attacked today. Battles in clear terrain are not good for the Chinese…

Ground combat at 83,51 (near Wuchang)

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 12219 troops, 104 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 439
Defending force 6674 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 179

Japanese ground losses:
254 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
2159 casualties reported
Squads: 72 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 126 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

This apparently created some panic. Several units are now moving to block my advance… which will not happen. I’m staying there for a day, and returning to base.

Booo!

Slow Resource Area

In Palembang, yet another deliberate attack reached 1:1 odds, and destroyed more enemies than friendlies. Forts had been rebuilt to one overnight. Disruption is mounting, I am resting tomorrow…

In Singapore, the most damaged units have been sent to Johore to rest. Meanwhile I am bombarding, and will attack.

Two divisions from Clark have arrived in Batangas and are now loading to Kota. They should not be necessary in Singapore, but one never knows. Ironically, bombardment damage in Clark Field seems to have improved since I pulled away troops.

Faux fow

BB California was reported sunk today, at Pearl, from a 250kg GP bomb. That wasn’t me, for sure… I’d love this to be true, she had been badly damaged on the seventh of December (4 torpedoes), perhaps she sunk when trying to move back to the Continent. Unfortunately, victory points suggest this did not happen… I suppose this is ok: I did not shoot her, so she could not sink.

[fcharton]

February 8th and 9th 1942

Slugs in the Pacific

Slow, protracted, attrition battles rage on… I’m not really losing troops, and I am slowly gaining the upper hand, but this takes a lot of time, and most of my strength.

Is this so bad? I’ve decided not to lose sleep about it. In the DEI, I am shooting for a relatively limited perimeter, and made good progress in the early days of the game. Measuring by other AAR standards, I am not late… yet… In China, I believe I am actually ahead of schedule. Big enemy pockets are being mopped up (in Taiyuan and Wenchow), and the battle for Sian is definitely going the right way.

There are several lessons, though, that I need to work through.

The first one is that overwhelming force makes a huge difference. I arrived in Singapore with more than twice the strength of the enemy,, this was not enough. By committing the two divisions I sent to Clark, the Lion city would probably have already fallen by now. Conquest of the DEI should be done one big stack at a time…

My plans for the DEI are now relatively simple: I need Singapore first, then Java, and then Luzon. The first phase might (alas!) use up the better part of February. This means I should land in Java in March, and perhaps in Northern Australia in early April. Luzon can be delayed indefinitely, the Allies won’t leave. This pretty much settles it for the “big stack”.


The second lesson is that I still need to build small reserves, to attack in those sectors where large stacks are not needed. This means New Guinea, Sumatra, perhaps Australia. I have a few hundred AV scattered, in Rabaul, in Balikpapan, on Mindanao, and in the Celebes. I also have a couple of marine units in Tokyo, and more than 3500 political points in the bank. I can buy several regiments or brigades from Japan (Manchukuo units are going to China). Overall, I think I could manage about 1200 AV in small units. Half of them would be committed to New Guinea. The other half would probably go for the central Philippines (to free my troops in Mindanao), and then to Sumatra.

What about Burma? I’m thin, there, with just one division on the ground. Fortunately, the enemy is still in India, so there is no short term danger. I am planning to send there some reinforcements from Indochina, basically, the guards unit that I’m receiving throughout February.


All this means February will most certainly be spent regrouping and consolidating, and offensive will only restart in March. Meanwhile, the best I can do is consolidate what I already hold. I could, and should, have decided this two weeks ago. That’s two lost weeks, you live and learn…


Battle stories

In those slow battles, the evolution of raw AV gives, I believe, a pretty good idea of what is happening behind the scenes. InTaiyuan, against cut off enemy troops, casualty figures have been unimpressive. On the 8th, and despite 3:1 odds, I destroyed 8 enemy squads (out of a 400 AV stack). On the 9th, odds were 2:1, and 15 squads were destroyed. Yet, the evolution of AV from one day to the next tells a lot about what is really happening.

Here is the 8th
Attacking force 37172 troops, 316 guns, 111 vehicles, Assault Value = 1316
Defending force 14613 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 404

The 9th
Attacking force 36659 troops, 316 guns, 111 vehicles, Assault Value = 1300
Defending force 13755 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 331

The 10th (before battle)
Attacking force 36859 troops, 316 guns, 161 vehicles, Assault Value = 1418
Defending force 13063 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 283

I believe victory is near, despite unimpressive casualties.


In Yenan, the situation is less impressive (similar situation : enemy unsupplied, forts reduced)

6th of February
Attacking force 27698 troops, 267 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 841
Defending force 24654 troops, 192 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 668

A deliberate attack later, the 7th
Attacking force 169 troops, 29 guns, 23 vehicles, Assault Value = 807
Defending force 23471 troops, 192 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 608

The 9th, attack again
Attacking force 147 troops, 29 guns, 21 vehicles, Assault Value = 770
Defending force 23022 troops, 192 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 598

The 10th
Attacking force 26973 troops, 273 guns, 93 vehicles, Assault Value = 779
Defending force 23158 troops, 192 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 613

As you can see, assault values are falling (and the last battle will probably get raw AV value below 550 tomorrow) but at a much slower rate. Interestingly, disabled squads are still rebuilding every day, which shows supplies, though low, are not exhausted.


Malaybalay, on Mindanao, tells a similar story.

4th
Attacking force 8345 troops, 66 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 335
Defending force 5190 troops, 30 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 227

6
Attacking force 9258 troops, 73 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 316
Defending force 5043 troops, 30 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 209

8
Attacking force 8955 troops, 73 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 296
Defending force 5007 troops, 30 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 211

10th
Attacking force 7815 troops, 65 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 289
Defending force 4809 troops, 30 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 191


Why do I look at this? Because it clearly shows the problem I have in Singapore… Here are the figures (fall in Japanese AV in February are not due to losses, but units moving back to Johore to rest).

January 20th, initial shock attack
Attacking force 74973 troops, 711 guns, 183 vehicles, Assault Value = 2556
Defending force 45700 troops, 526 guns, 381 vehicles, Assault Value = 1258

January 26th
Attacking force 75684 troops, 735 guns, 169 vehicles, Assault Value = 2498
Defending force 44529 troops, 538 guns, 384 vehicles, Assault Value = 1156

January 31st
Attacking force 1084 troops, 121 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 2184
Defending force 41774 troops, 549 guns, 364 vehicles, Assault Value = 999

Feb 4th
Attacking force 1110 troops, 121 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 2056
Defending force 41242 troops, 559 guns, 370 vehicles, Assault Value = 978

Feb 6th
Attacking force 1067 troops, 121 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 1746
Defending force 40477 troops, 566 guns, 369 vehicles, Assault Value = 948

Feb 8th
Attacking force 1100 troops, 121 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 1847
Defending force 41181 troops, 569 guns, 377 vehicles, Assault Value = 974

Feb 10th
Attacking force 1055 troops, 121 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 1704
Defending force 40223 troops, 575 guns, 374 vehicles, Assault Value = 962


As you can observe, the first ten days of the battle showed a regular reduction of enemy AV, but this is not the case anymore. Without fresh reinforcements, Singapore can probably hold for a very long time…

[fcharton]

February 10th, 1942

Late afternoon- Somewhere in the jungles of Burma.

Along a narrow trail, at the bottom of a gully, six men are pushing a strange mechanical device, which looks like an oversized phonograph mounted on bicycle wheels, with several horns painted in unlikely colors and decorated with small images of famous Parisian monuments. Before them walks a young officer, a lieutenant colonel of the air force, a pair of binocular on his chest, and a khaki banjolele on his back.

- Colonel, you sure this is the right direction? Looks like we’ve already been here, yesterday, or the day before…
- In the jungle, the mighty jungle, all places look alike, soldier. But we’re walking in the right direction. See that mountain range? The border runs there, beyond is the river, and Pegu … That will be enough for today, let’s camp here.

With infinite care, four soldiers draw the machine on the side of the trail, and cover it with a piece of camouflaged cloth, to protect it from the rain that pours every evening. The two others light a fire to cook the evening rice. In this desolate place, the risk of being spotted by an enemy plane is inexistent.

More of the same

In Yenan, yet another attack brought 1:2 odds. Enemy losses are getting higher each time. 11 combat squads were destroyed, and 72 disabled. In Taiyuan , odds reached 9:1, almost 60 squads were destroyed.

In Palembang, the results were a bit surprising

Ground combat at Palembang (48,91)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 14965 troops, 157 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 470
Defending force 6079 troops, 171 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 137
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Japanese ground losses:
199 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
721 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 30 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

The report says I have lost a unit, but it turns out it was a Dutch unit. This seems to happen from time to time.

The good news, today, came from Bandjermasin. An infantry regiment had landed there yesterday, and today the enemy shocked attack. Bad idea!

Ground combat at Bandjermasin (60,99)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 515 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 26
Defending force 4829 troops, 49 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 192
Allied adjusted assault: 0
Japanese adjusted defense: 511
Allied assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 2)


Allied ground losses:
395 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

I will finish them tomorrow…

Meanwhile in Sian

The lone enemy stack has now been surrounded and cut off for a week. Enemy strength has been confirmed (via bombardment) at 2400. More than 3000 AV are moving into position. I have 2000 more in reserves, in Taiyuan and on the road to Ankang. The enemy has 23 units are in Sian, and 16 in the forest east of the city, so far, they have not attempted to move and rescue their stranded comrades.

If the enemy remains in place, he doesn’t stand a chance. Therefore, he is trying to march towards Sian. This would not break the encirclement, but it could make the life of a rescue party much easier. I have ordered one division to march towards the enemy. The first one that crosses the hexside will effectively block the other. In theory, we’re both moving 4 miles a day, and they began marching a day before me, so they should win the race. But then, they’re also unsupplied, and bombed daily from the air, and I have tried to tempt my opponent into attacking a small force I sent there today… We will know in 9 days (or tomorrow if the enemy chooses to attack).

Meanwhile, I am planning a hasty attack on the retreating units. I have one division there, and will have about 1000 AV in two days, and almost 3000 in a week. In closed terrain, it might not be enough, unless supplies are already very low (which is possible, huge stacks are very hard to feed).

East of Sian, three more divisions are moving into position, in case the enemy marches there. North of the river, a brigade has been ordered West, to delay any rescue party from Sian.

We still need some time, but prospects are good.

Here is a map, with my force disposition (D=infantry division, B=infantry brigade, a handful of tank regiments, HQ and artillery are present as well)



Night has fallen, the fire is dying, and Lieutenant Colonel Hakashima is putting his banjolele back in its khaki case.

- Good night, guys
- Colonel, do we really need to drag that sound detector all the way to Pegu? Couldn’t we just pretend it broke down, and leave it here?
- We can’t, soldier, it is in the book, here (from his pocket Hakashima produces a little book titled “Captain Cruft’s words of wonder”). It says the sound detector will eventually metamorphose into a radar.
- You mean, like a butterfly?
- I don’t know, the book doesn’t say
- What’s a radar, colonel?
- I don’t know, I asked the guys at Evil Empire HQ, but they wouldn’t tell me, they said it was classified. I suppose it is a new weapon, one that will win us the war.
- A strange war we’re fighting here, colonel
- Strange indeed, soldier!

Hakashima is just as puzzled as his men. Two weeks ago, in Chiang Mai, as he was preparing to fly to Rangoon and join the rest of his unit, he had been summoned to the Kempetai, and given this strange mission of carrying a sound detector through the jungles. The officer had given him the small book, and told him everything would be explained. “…Metamorphose into a radar…” what the hell can that mean?

[fcharton]

February 11th, 1942

The last Battle of Taiyuan

I know this name is ridiculous. This certainly is the second battle of Taiyuan (first one was in 37, against the same Fu Zuoyi we’re defeating today), but how do we know it is the last? But then, go explain this to the mudheads at EIHQ…

Anyway…, the end is near. Adjusted enemy AV is now 25 (vs 260 nominal), the deliberate attack achieved 33:1 odds, and one of the four Chinese units was destroyed. Enemy losses were still relatively low, though.

The surrender en masse might take place tomorrow or the day after. Since there are three corps and one HQ, I am expecting over a thousand squads. This will free about 1500 AV, plus a few regiments I had left in northern China to defend against those troops (I had a few in Kweisuei, a few others in Tatung, and some more in Taiyuan.

In other news, the defenders shock attacked in Bandjermasin. As expected the Dutch invaders were trashed, three units were sent retreated, a fourth held its ground, and will get a second helping tomorrow…

Counterstrike

Yesterday, a lone IJA division was ordered to bombard the isolated stack east of Sian. I could have waited until the hex was reinforced: I already had a pretty good idea of enemy strength in the hex.

Yet, I was also hoping I could tempt my opponent into attacking this apparent weakness. As I had another division arriving today, the risk was limited (and even a defeat would not break the encirclement), and such a spoiling attack would both burn supplies and delay enemy retreat towards Sian.

Well, it was hook, bait and sinker, as our Japanese saying goes… The report is interesting:

Ground combat at 85,43 (near Nanyang)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 65996 troops, 393 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2382
Defending force 24748 troops, 222 guns, 111 vehicles, Assault Value = 842
Allied adjusted assault: 915
Japanese adjusted defense: 2032
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1965 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 108 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2494 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 124 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled

As expected, the clash was quite violent. Although few squads were destroyed, both my divisions took about 50 disabled squads, and assault value went down from 840 to 720. This will repair, but I could not withstand several days like this… Fortunately, I am getting reinforcements tomorrow (two tank regiments) and the 1:2 odds suggest another attack would probably not be as damaging.

Enemy losses are higher than mine, and disablements will not heal fast, for lack of supplies. I will bombard tomorrow and see where we stand.

I was quite happy to see the supply minus. Supply stocks are low, and this attack depleted them further. The 1:2 odds also mean higher disruption and fatigue, which will then slow any further attempt at retreating towards Sian.

The enemy stack is still marked as moving, though, which suggests not all the units in the hex were committed. Most of the fighting troops participated in the attack, though, which means that whatever moves can probably be easily defeated when they arrive east of Sian (I’ll park a tank unit there, just in case…)

I now have 700 AV in the hex. 100 more are arriving tomorrow and 200 more in three days. The whole build up should probably take a week, but the prospects are very good.

This is not the first time I see my opponent fall for this kind of gambit. This is good to know.

Reinforcing the East Indies

Using Tracker, I have tried to get a better picture of Japanese forces at the beginning of 1942. At present, Japanese unites have a total strength of about 44 000 AV. Of these, 30 000 are in restricted units in China, 4 000 in restricted units in Japan, and 10 000 in unrestricted units, mostly in the resource area. Chinese garrison requirements amount to 14 000 (8 000 in Manchuria, and 6 000 in China), or about one half of the forces on the continent. In other words, Japan has about 30 000 AV to play with, 4 000 in Japan, 10 000 in the SRA, and 16 000 in China.

In China, I have about 6000 AV around Sian, 2000 between Taiyuan and Yenan, and 2000 more in the far west (Hami and Lanchow). There probably are about 2000 around, or on their way to, Wenchow. The remaining are scattered over several places, as excess garrison forces, or on small theaters (like Hankow, the garrison east of Ichang, forces around Wuchow or Kahnsien…)

With two third of my Chinese forces committed to the northern campaign, the rest of my troops are relatively thin on the ground. I doubt the enemy can (or would) counterattack. Their supply situation is probably too degraded for this. But I don’t think I can divert troops from China to other theaters. If I want to buy restricted units for the East Indies, I will find them in Japan, not Manchuria.

In the Resource Area, I have about 10 000 AV. About 1000 are in Burma, 3000 in Malaya and 2000 in Luzon. I probably have about 1000 garrisoning Indochina and Thailand, some 500 on Mindanao, 500 in Borneo, 500 in Sumatra and 500 in New Guinea. The rest are scattered over a large number of bases.

My major problem, here, is that my troops are not concentrated enough. I am losing the initiative in Singapore and Palembang because I came there with too little, and new invasions are delayed for lack of troops to handle them, because my units got scattered as the early invasions proceeded.

When planning the campaign, this aspect (keeping the troops concentrated) was completely overlooked… This will cost me six weeks, I’m afraid.

Here are the measures I’m taking.

1- Reinforce existing battles. Two divisions from Luzon are now sailing to Malaya. I expect them to be in Singapore in 10 days. In the meantime, I will probably not attack much. Reinforce Palembang by one or two battalions. I will probably reinforce Mindanao as well (one regiment, probably).
2- Concentrate my forces over a few staging bases: Singapore, Macassar, Rabaul.
3- Bring in reinforcements from Japan. Two brigades have been bought, a number of nav guard units are arriving.

Apart from Palembang, where decision could come quickly, I don’t think the situation will change before the end of the month, though.

[fcharton]

February 12th, 1942

Not much to report today…

The war at sea, or the lack of it

I did something silly… I had sent a small surface task force to Tulagi, in anticipation of enemy bombardment. The port is mined, yet the enemy managed to get a submarine there, sink a destroyer and damage a cruiser. So far, defensive minefields do not seem to be very effective. I have mined Nauru and Miri, but subs seem to go there unharmed.

Still the ASW effort goes on. Two enemy subs (Trusty and KXV) got damaged off Kuching and on the coast of Sumatra. The enemy seems to be sending subs in the shallow waters, let him pay for it. In the Home Islands and the Celebes, convoy attacks have become very rare.

KB and mini KB are trying to chase raiders in the Solomon and Timor. It seems very difficult to keep them undetected in these areas with lots of small and empty islands. There will always be one coastwatcher here or there. This will discourage enemy raids, but fail to sink enemy surface ships, and unnecessarily risk my carriers.

Blasphemous as it may sound, I am getting more and more convinced that using the Imperial Navy at this stage of the game (and in the face of enemy general retreat) is a mistake. Enemy surface forces are probably safely in port somewhere far away. Trying to chase them is pointless, and will just risk my ships for no good reason. Risking KB and burning fuel to sink a couple of cargoes or minesweepers does not strike me as a good usage of my flagships, and I very much doubt enemy shipping can be efficiently reduced (at least by me).

Maybe the right way to use my ships, in 1942, is to conserve them, and be ready to strike back if the allies get bold, and attack with too little…

The war on land, crawling as usual

In Yenan, attacks still end up 1:2 odds, but destroy one unit and a good number of squads. In Taiyuan, another unit surrenders, odds are now 56:1, and two corps remain. We are getting there. Once this stack is done with, all enemy units behind my lines will have been eliminated (save a few artillery tubes in the plains, and the Wenchow pocket). This will free a couple of garrisons.

In the West, my troops are one hex away from Hami. The base seems abandoned. Has the enemy pulled back to Urumchi to try to make a stand there? Around Lanchow, the concentration is nearly finished. The drive on the base will probably begin next week. The enemy has a lot of troops there. I very much doubt I can take the city. My goal is to besiege it, cut production and let the big stack there eat up the supplies. With a little luck, the enemy will try his luck at a counterattack, and fail… Holding Kiuchuan and Ansi probably prevents fuel and supplies from Urumchi to flow towards Sian. Cutting production in Lanchow serves the same purpose. I believe this will cut enemy supply production by a few hundred points a day, a good thing, obviously.

Around Sian, the enemy did not try another attack. Bombardment reports 2200 AV, for 2380 yesterday… There is still no sign of movement from the other stacks. I suspect my opponent wants his stack to die and respawn. It is up to him, but I don’t think this is wise.

In Wenchow, a first bombardment revealed enemy strength at 1550 AV. This is more than I thought. It will take a while. Overall, the enemy has about 4500 AV in the three pockets (Wenchow, Sian and Taiyuan). This is more than 20% of the Chinese forces at game start…

In Palembang, an infantry battalion arrived today, the first raiding is arriving tomorrow. Deliberate attacks are steadily wearing off the defenders. One more week, perhaps…

Two divisions from Luzon are now sailing towards Kota, and should arrive in two or three days. I believe Singapore can be reinforced in ten days. This will probably mean level 4 forts, oh well…

Japanese SNLF have resumed invasions of small bases. Bima and Tandjoengpinang (the island south of Singapore) fell today. The short term goal is to clear all the small islands east of Java, and the island base between Borneo and Sumatra.

[fcharton]

February 13th and 14th 1942
Valentine Day special



Greetings, Gaijin, welcome to yet another of our Japanese traditional holiday: V-Day.

Since, I’m told, Japan has lost the war before it even started, and thererefore will never enjoy an anglosaxon-style V Day, with a parade and uniformed guys playing the bugle around monuments, EIHQ decided the the V in V-Day stood for Valentine, which means we can enjoy a VDay every year, no matter how bad the war turns out. Those EIHQ guys sometimes have strange ideas, but you can’t deny them a form of practical intelligence.

February 13th, Valentine Eve

V-Eve is a very busy day, here in Japan. Most of army and navy personnels abroad were busy looting card and underwear shops, to find something to send to their significant other, back home or in the closest specialized institution.

As a result, very little happened today. Evil Imperial Headquarters are not happy about it, but such is the price to pay to uphold ancient traditions.

The only significant battle happened in Taiyuan, but fell short of destroying the enemy (despite huge odds in our favour). Japanese troops had other things in mind (and HQ had granted free leave at 1600).

Ground combat at Taiyuan (91,40)

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 39862 troops, 342 guns, 161 vehicles, Assault Value = 1396
Defending force 10394 troops, 115 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 187
Japanese adjusted assault: 1208
Allied adjusted defense: 10
Japanese assault odds: 120 to 1

Japanese ground losses:
136 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1339 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 83 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 104 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled

February 14th, love, all around…

EIHQ, considering Valentine Eve would have a good effect on army morale, had ordered a general offensive today. Palembang was the exception : troops rested one more day, to allow the First Raiding Regiment to join the fray. I now have almost 600 AV againt 120 enemies, see what happens tomorrow.

In Singapore, a deliberate attack only achieved 1:3 odds. Forts are back at level 3. I am destroying more squads than I lose, but this is very expensive. The two divisions from Luzon are now disembarking in Kota Baru, another division is in Cam Ranh, going to Saigon, and then to Phnom Penh. This is the last attack before the place is reinforced and the final offensive happens. Here’s the btucher's bill, for what it is worth. Nothing to call home about, I'm afraid.

Japanese ground losses:
4238 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 274 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 178 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 43 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1982 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 38 destroyed, 176 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 5 disabled
Vehicles lost 31 (3 destroyed, 28 disabled)

On Mindanao, another attack in Malaybalay reduced forts to level 0, and achieved 1:1 odds. Those jungle combats take a lot of time…

In China, Hami fell without a fight. The Gansu corridor between Turkestan to China (Hami to Lanchow) is now under Japanese control. Next stop is Urumchi and the oilfields, I might meet some opposition there, for a change.

In Yenan, a deliberate attack finally achieved 1:1 odds (first time it happens, that old black magic of Love, I believe). Since the last one (on the 12th), enemy raw AV went from 554 to 536, but adjusted went from 699 to 227. Supply must be running out. I am low on supplies too, I will wait one day.

Japanese ground losses:
551 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 45 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Vehicles lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1311 casualties reported
Squads: 47 destroyed, 61 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 60 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Finally, Taiyuan fell today. The two last corps surrendered, lots of squads were destroyed

Allied ground losses:
9568 casualties reported
Squads: 277 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 592 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 46 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 125 (125 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

The fall of Taiyuan frees about 1500 AV there, and clears the last enemy presence in northeastern China. This means I can free a number of small troops (Mongol Garrison, mostly) that were reinforcing garrisons in Paotow, Kweisui, Tatung or Kaoping, and send them elsewhere on garrison duty, to free more combat units.

The troops in Taiyuan are now moving to Tsiaotso, to help in the drive against Sian.

VP-wise, this was a pretty good turn. We are now at 8 500 vs 8 900. Parity will probably be reached before Singapore falls.


Meta-letter to the meta-editor

Dear Mister Matrix,

It has occurred to us that, by some random tweak of chance, in the December 8th grand campaign scenarios of your game War in the Pacific, the 69th turn fall on Valentine Day. Whereas we do understand this game is mostly played by elderly gentlemen of high moral standards (and sparse sentimental activity) who would not see any mischief in this unfortunate coincidence, we are concerned that it could bring prurious thoughts to the minds of some of your younger customers.

We do understand that it might be difficult, in a historical game, to change the date of the attack on Pearl Harbor, or of Valentine Day. During our last committee meeting on the subject, one of our members suggested that you remove a day in the timeline (say, the 31st of January 1942, I trust no one will notice), but someone then observed that the 69th turn of the Dec 7th campaign (even more often played than the Dec 8th one) would then fall on Valentine Day. Having only 29 days in January 1942 was also ruled out: committee members considered that the most alert of your elderly customers might notice the discrepancy...

Therefore, we propose you add a 32nd of January to 1942 (and perhaps to the other years of the War as well, for the sake of consistency).

The League of Concerned Parents about Obscenity in Video Games
fcharton, president

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi fcharton,

I read a post recently about Urumchi's oil and learned that it really doesn't migrate all that well. It seems to stockpile until the storage capacity is reached. I think I read about this in the tech forum and michaelm was working on having it move for the next patch. So I'm not sure if Urumchi is worth going after if you can't get access to the oil. However, that being said, I'm after the base as well in my game [:D]. You never know!