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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Tue May 22, 2012 7:17 pm
by ny59giants
Start using your Class C subs with midgets in two separate groups along with a Glen or two for recon to start showing up at various ports. The midgets don't have to be launched from the actual base, but one hex away. More a nuisance than anything else, but force him to keep extra assets in his major ports to deal with them.

You have the two AMCs down in the South Pacific as raiders. Try to send in another two. The Allies are short of adequate escorts for the first 6 months. They may be able to cause more damage than they are worth.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Tue May 22, 2012 10:33 pm
by Captain Cruft
Blimey what a load of panic.

I would love to be in this position, not having to think about offense is bliss.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 7:39 am
by Hortlund
Palembang - not good enough.

Let me quote Top Gun here. "Bullsh-t ten minutes, this thing will be over in two". You dont need a division (yet) and if you wait two weeks one division will not be enough. You have plenty of units heading towards Malaya or in French Indo-Chine, use them. Forget prep, you dont need it. Forget Force Z, you have BBs and CAs to handle them. Forget air-threat from Singapore, you have enough fighters and bombers to supress Singapore or CAP your fleet.

Let me be blunt. You must take Palembang before Dec 15th with what you have in theater now. You dont have the luxury of waiting for a mini-KB or a division from Shanghai. If an opponent builds a fortress at Palembang, the defence grows exponentially for the first two weeks. He flies in about 25 AV every day, he will ship in dutch regiments of another 100 AV, then the Indian brigades arrive and after that the 18th UK.

In two weeks you will be facing 600 AV behind lvl3 forts in a x3 swamp hex. On top of that you will face CVs, Force Z and 30-40 torpedo bombers.

Get troops on the ground there now. As in "before Dec 10th". Cant land at Palembang, land at Djambi. Afraid of Singapore airunits? Take whatever losses you need. All units are expendable here because if you fail to take Palembang inside two weeks you have lost the game.

You dont need Bettys at Singkawang, you need AVs on Sumatra. You cannot wait because every day shifts the balance against you and in a couple of weeks you will need 3 divisions to take P and when you take it it will be 50-80% damaged.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 12:31 pm
by Hortlund
Heh, notice how he put a link to his AAR in his sig bragging about his achievements? This is very good info about your opponent. Same with the email conversation you were refering to, he thinks he can win this in 43? Ok.

It looks like he thinks highly of himself, and judging by his bragging he also believe there is some sort of status involved in the game and the AARs. He will be looking for bragging rights then, and he will be trying to impress the forum with his cleverness and tactical brilliance. That will influence how he plays, and what sort of operations he will be trying. Expect very agressive counterattacks in a couple of months. My guess would be Hokkaido or Saipan. Iwo Jima perhaps?

Another factor to consider is how well a player understands and can handle the game engine. Here I am not sure what level he is on, there are some signs that he knows enough to handle himself ok (staggered CAP over Manila for example) and there are other signs that he does not. It is quite clear however that he will do his utmost to capitalize on the game-engine within the bounds of your HRs. Look at the B17s at naval attack at 5k. Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.


RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 12:43 pm
by Hortlund
As for you:

1) Stop sending Bettys against land-targets. Make sure you dont get caught in a CAP-trap. That means stand them down unless/until you know what you will be attacking and where. You cannot afford to lose your Betty/Nell pilots now. You dont need them right now anyway, Force Z might be around Singkawang, but I doubt it. Even if they are there, you will not launch against them at that range. There is much more risk of a stupid launch against some ship at Singapore that gets caught in a Buffalo CAP.

2) Sweep Manila, Singapore, Rangoon as soon as possible. Use multi-layered sweeps. Send in the Oscars at 8k and the Zeros at 13k, and Tojos at 20. You need to do this right away because you need to start atritting his airforce without being bound by escorting bombers.

3) Set up CAP-traps of your own. Create a TF consisting of 4 DDs, move the TF into range of Singapore (say 4 hexes off Singapore). Have Zeros from Kuching or Soc Trang LRCAP the DD-TF at 8k. Remember you need to be inside normal range (with or without drop tanks) so find the sweet spot and catch his Vildebeest and Swordfish.

4) Use the CVL/CVEs you have as enemy bomber killers. Remove Vals and Kates, transfer more Zero units to these CVE/CVLs. Set the Zeros on 100% CAP, 8k altitude and range 0. That means alot of your Zeros will be in the air to meet the enemy bombers and none will be out of position. Altitude is key here, if you patrol too high or too low, you will lose interception time. Look at how he flew his bombers.. 5k or 8k. That means you set your patrol altitude to that altitude or 1k higher.

5) Set up small SCTFs around CLs and DDs and start raiding Palembang right now. I mean right now. Start sending SCTFs to Oosthaven too. You need to own the sea-lanes to Palembang, and you need to own them now. Where are your subs in the NEI? They should be around Palembang, Oosthaven and that other base on the western side of Sumatra right across from Palembang.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 1:15 pm
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.
Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 1:23 pm
by Hortlund
ORIGINAL: witpqs
Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.

My point is you dont ask for it unless you plan to use it.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 1:30 pm
by obvert
Let me be blunt. You must take Palembang before Dec 15th with what you have in theater now. You dont have the luxury of waiting for a mini-KB or a division from Shanghai. If an opponent builds a fortress at Palembang, the defence grows exponentially for the first two weeks. He flies in about 25 AV every day, he will ship in dutch regiments of another 100 AV, then the Indian brigades arrive and after that the 18th UK.

In two weeks you will be facing 600 AV behind lvl3 forts in a x3 swamp hex. On top of that you will face CVs, Force Z and 30-40 torpedo bombers.

Get troops on the ground there now. As in "before Dec 10th". Cant land at Palembang, land at Djambi. Afraid of Singapore airunits? Take whatever losses you need. All units are expendable here because if you fail to take Palembang inside two weeks you have lost the game.

You dont need Bettys at Singkawang, you need AVs on Sumatra. You cannot wait because every day shifts the balance against you and in a couple of weeks you will need 3 divisions to take P and when you take it it will be 50-80% damaged.

I hear the urgency. I'm not sure it's game over even if he is building a fortress there. Yes, the oil has a better chance of being ruined. But that's exactly why I would like to get a full division there. More chance for a quick resolution. Without the KB it's tougher to isolate Sumatra, but the Japanese can bring more in 42 if we want to. If he commits fully to it, I'll bring enough to take it and wipe out whatever he has there.

I'll look through what's in theatre. I'm not sure I can scrape up more than the large Brigade scheduled for the PI, and that means I'm short there, but Palembang is more critical. It would still be 5-7 days or so until it got there at the earliest. But that's around the December 15th window.

You might be right about this, and at least are right that the possibility is there, but I think he may be looking for something he really believes he can hold. Java or Timor.
It looks like he thinks highly of himself, and judging by his bragging he also believe there is some sort of status involved in the game and the AARs. He will be looking for bragging rights then, and he will be trying to impress the forum with his cleverness and tactical brilliance. That will influence how he plays, and what sort of operations he will be trying. Expect very agressive counterattacks in a couple of months. My guess would be Hokkaido or Saipan. Iwo Jima perhaps?

Another factor to consider is how well a player understands and can handle the game engine. Here I am not sure what level he is on, there are some signs that he knows enough to handle himself ok (staggered CAP over Manila for example) and there are other signs that he does not. It is quite clear however that he will do his utmost to capitalize on the game-engine within the bounds of your HRs. Look at the B17s at naval attack at 5k. Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.

Most of his bravado is in good fun. I take it this way at least. He may do just what you suggest though, and I will do my best to feed this need to make the spectacular play.

From what I can tell he does understand the engine well enough. Most likely better than I do, although mistakes teach us the most in my opinion, and I've made a few in my three PBEMs so far. He did ask for no restrictions on 4E naval but with the caveat that we could look at it again if it seemed too powerful. He also suggested the landing in hexes without dots or bases. I think that could be useful occasionally, but might be unpredictable and leave him with stranded troops highly disrupted as well.
As for you:

1) Stop sending Bettys against land-targets. Make sure you dont get caught in a CAP-trap. That means stand them down unless/until you know what you will be attacking and where. You cannot afford to lose your Betty/Nell pilots now. You dont need them right now anyway, Force Z might be around Singkawang, but I doubt it. Even if they are there, you will not launch against them at that range. There is much more risk of a stupid launch against some ship at Singapore that gets caught in a Buffalo CAP.

Already done. Even the Bettys turn 2 at Manilla were a mistake. A costly one. I will be very careful from now on to try and sweep heavily at any one spot. I will stand down Netties from Saigon to a naval and sub search and just keep them looking but not attacking until they are needed for specific actions.
2) Sweep Manila, Singapore, Rangoon as soon as possible. Use multi-layered sweeps. Send in the Oscars at 8k and the Zeros at 13k, and Tojos at 20. You need to do this right away because you need to start atritting his airforce without being bound by escorting bombers.

Yep. Zeros will go for a week or so until Manila is ground down. Then Rangoon. Singers has no fighters now. We'll have to see where those went. Some might go to Port Blair which I also think he will try to hold and I will try to para-drop if possible.
3) Set up CAP-traps of your own. Create a TF consisting of 4 DDs, move the TF into range of Singapore (say 4 hexes off Singapore). Have Zeros from Kuching or Soc Trang LRCAP the DD-TF at 8k. Remember you need to be inside normal range (with or without drop tanks) so find the sweet spot and catch his Vildebeest and Swordfish.

Great idea. I'll try this from Soc Trang now and later once I have Kuching/Singkawang.
4) Use the CVL/CVEs you have as enemy bomber killers. Remove Vals and Kates, transfer more Zero units to these CVE/CVLs. Set the Zeros on 100% CAP, 8k altitude and range 0. That means alot of your Zeros will be in the air to meet the enemy bombers and none will be out of position. Altitude is key here, if you patrol too high or too low, you will lose interception time. Look at how he flew his bombers.. 5k or 8k. That means you set your patrol altitude to that altitude or 1k higher.

Exactly my intention RE the Mini-KB. No need for strikes in the DEI now. Just protection and killing planes. They're all getting upgrades done, finding escorts, and will be back in theatre within 7 days.
5) Set up small SCTFs around CLs and DDs and start raiding Palembang right now. I mean right now. Start sending SCTFs to Oosthaven too. You need to own the sea-lanes to Palembang, and you need to own them now. Where are your subs in the NEI? They should be around Palembang, Oosthaven and that other base on the western side of Sumatra right across from Palembang.


ALL IJN subs in the area are near Palembang or in the channel near Biliton and Pontiniak. I'm ready to break up some of the landing TFs on Malaya and will start sending in some raiders right away. I'd like to knock off Kuching in the next few days to get an airfield to also get a CAP over these ships near Palembang.

Thanks for all of the particular suggestions. It helps to keep it clear as I try to stay focused on the immediate goals after such a difficult start.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 1:35 pm
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.

My point is you dont ask for it unless you plan to use it.
My point is that is wrong in this case.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 3:13 pm
by Hortlund
He asks for it becaue he is not planning to use it. Ok, but that doesnt make sense.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 3:31 pm
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

He asks for it becaue he is not planning to use it. Ok, but that doesnt make sense.
I'll explain it. [;)]

A player might want to have the possibility be in play to make for a better game insofar as the possibilities for both players to consider are greater.

BTW, many (maybe even most?) of us consider having the option to make landings away from bases to be the "normal" way and only state it explicitly for clarity sake to avoid angst among parties later on in the game. In my view only prohibiting it would be considered an HR.

It is by no means a certainty that he intends to use it. But obvert must always keep the possibility in mind.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 6:05 am
by JocMeister
Any news on Zuikaku's fate? With fires in the 80s and Jap damage control is it a 100% certain loss or is there still a chance?

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Sun May 27, 2012 6:15 am
by Hortlund
Yeah, what is happening in your game?

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Sun May 27, 2012 6:37 am
by obvert
Sorry for the lack of reports. It's been a busy time the last week. Literally no turns since the last reported. I'm getting it ready and it will be out today. Then we'll be on a 2-3 a week schedule again for a good while.

The Zuikaku's fires are not out, and she will likely go down tomorrow. She hasn't been hit by any other surface forces though. Again odd. She's on cruise speed heading NW and if she makes it anywhere past tomorrow it'll be a miracle.

I didn't want to rush this turn as I have a lot to get going and no time for mistakes. Torsten seems fine with a pause and has quite a few other games to keep him busy in the meantime. More reports later.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 1:41 pm
by JocMeister
I was afraid of that. But you still got a good enough CV force that he has to keep major operations under CV cover. I guess you have considered keeping the KB and MKB close togheter now? The MKB is what, 100 fighters and 80 bombers or so?

He can certainly afford to be very agressive with his CVs now as loosing two or so isn´t that big of a deal. You on the other hand I think should be very very careful with yours! Avoid a direct CV vs CV confrontation unless you can stay under LBA cover. If you clash you will probably both loose a CV or two. He can afford it but you can´t.

I think there will be opportunities for you to strike at him. He will overreach and expose himself sooner or later.

Keep the fighting spirit up! :)

Jocke

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 4:18 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I was afraid of that. But you still got a good enough CV force that he has to keep major operations under CV cover. I guess you have considered keeping the KB and MKB close togheter now? The MKB is what, 100 fighters and 80 bombers or so?

He can certainly afford to be very agressive with his CVs now as loosing two or so isn´t that big of a deal. You on the other hand I think should be very very careful with yours! Avoid a direct CV vs CV confrontation unless you can stay under LBA cover. If you clash you will probably both loose a CV or two. He can afford it but you can´t.

I think there will be opportunities for you to strike at him. He will overreach and expose himself sooner or later.

Keep the fighting spirit up! :)

Jocke

Thanks Jocke! Yes, it is about the spirit.

All future CVs will be accelerated. They will be a defensive measure and stay well back most of the time until I know I can fight on advantageous terms. Having 3 of the 6 feels like a luxury when I thought I would lose them all!

The Ryujo and others will form with the remainder of the KB once their use in the DEI is not directly necessary, which should be after the try for Palembang.

The turn is still not away. Tonight it will go for sure.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Wed May 30, 2012 6:25 pm
by obvert
Torsten informed me he is in the process of moving offices, so this turn will be delayed as well.

In the next few days I'll post some thoughts and screenies to outline current plans and future ideas.

RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 6:45 pm
by obvert
[font="Times New Roman"]Strategy[/font]
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DEI: West Borneo and Palembang

Here is a basic outline of the first few weeks. The red is stuff I think I should acquire in the next week. The yellow is what I think should be possible the week after if the red goes well. Pretty standard.

PH (from several posts ago) is adamant I should take Palembang in the next 5-6 days. If not I would risk a build-up there and real issues with being able to take it as well as destroyed oil production.

After much consideration I will go for it as quickly as I feel comfortable with, but not within 5-6 days. If there is indeed a build-up I don't want to land without enough to take the base immediately. A protracted battle in my limited experience could mean higher chances of the oil being destroyed. I will be sending at least a large Brigade, plus a combat engineer unit and base force, and possibly a few SNLF units as well.

If Kuching and/or Singkawang fall within 5-7 days I will then have better knowledge of what is happening on Sumatra and in the surrounding seas. This will tell me a lot about what is necessary. If it seems a fortress is building, divisions will be diverted and sent to Palembang before heading to Malaya. To move divisions though, I need air cover, and Kuching/Singkawang have to be functioning airbases before anything more happens in the area.

Deception will be necessary against Torsten after his recent success. He will feel he can risk anything to slow me down. Once I have eyes extending into the area of the Java Sea I'll be able to create feints and see what kind of reactions I get.

I'm very open to any suggestions.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 7:07 pm
by obvert
[font="Times New Roman"]China[/font]
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It looks like some Chinese units are feeling frisky. Ichang is toast, as all KMT troops in the area are converging. We've been getting out and should make it before an attack is made.

A Corps between Changsha and Wuchang is heading for Kiukiang. Two divisions are moving to intercept. I'll start bombing this unit. Not sure what he's up to here.

Also, just to the South around Nanchang a lot of units are moving. Again, I'm not too concerned. I'll see where they try to go and then start bombing and moving troops if I need to. I'm happy for him to go on the offensive here. It means he'll use more supply and expose troops. If he's just heading for good defensive positions, then I'll try to root him out quickly before forts are built. I'm struggling for PPs to buy anything while buying back 3 CVs worth of air groups. Changing up to 2E bombers will take a while.

Most IJA units will rest until their moral and disablements improve.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 7:14 pm
by obvert
[font="Times New Roman"]4th Fleet[/font]
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The Wake invasion is loading and reconfiguring at Eniweitok and should be ready to go in 2-3 days. I'm sending a few xAKLs (on their way to Tokyo to transform into PBs) right around Wake to the NE. If there is a CV here, it will have to hit these to be ready for an invasion of Wake. If I just get Wildcats, then all systems go. Glen subs are also en route and should cover areas between Midway and Wake.

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