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And it is a simple matter to isolate a panzer corp. Has my opponent finally made a mistake?

More furious fighting in the Tula-Orel Sector, but no more pockets are formed

Meanwhile, the south lazes away the final week of summer ...

After Soviet moves, the central front looks like this

Looking at the front, it is clear that if the Germans had had two more weeks of fine weather, Stavka would be spending the autumn in Ulyanovsk and most of the Red Army would be advancing on Germany in long columns of unarmed men. But the weathermen are forecasting a whole month of rain, so the Soviet side has the chance to reorganise its defences and possibly exploit some weaknesses in the German deployment.

The main weakness on the Soviet side is lack of depth on most of the front, and the grotesquely swollen bag of units to the west of Moscow, a pocket already half-formed. In the next four turns we will aim to move the mass of those troops between the Moscow pincers so as to prevent them meeting during the snow turns. We will also aim to thicken the rest of the front line and form a series of reserve armies for commitment during the blizzard.

In Leningrad, we are going to do our best to hold the city: the manpower there is scarcely less than Moscow, and the Red Army is still desperately short of men. To that end, Tolbukhin is promoted from 20th Army to the Leningrad Front. Two fresh Siberian divisions, both with 60 morale, are put on rails to Osinovets, the port where Leningrad receives supplies from the eastern side of Lake Lagoda. And the whole of the VVS' transport planes are concentrated just east of the Volkhov so as to form an airlift force if the worst happens. Meanwhile, in other news, Zhukov is brought to the Stavka from SW Front, swapping places with Shaposhnikov.

In terms of offence, we will aim to eliminate 2nd Panzer Division, which is now hopelessly cut off behind Soviet lines, and we will try to exploit gaps left in the German line, particularly that one to the east of Kursk. Further offensive designs are contemplated, but are, for the moment, classified.

The Mud turns

Two feelgood moments:

The first

And the second. Nineteenth Army was railed in to make the attack ...

This is the situation on the final turn of the rasputitsa.

The Red Army has lost that wasted look it had at the end of Barbarossa, but there is a terrible shortage of men and of every kind of armament; as a result the divisional defensive CVs are almost all between 0.5 and 1.5. Stavka has followed the advice of the mathematically minded Gingerbread, given in another AAR, and reduced the maximum TOEs of all battalions and regiments to 50. And, as you can see, it has taken a respectful step back in anticipation of the renewed German offensives in the first snow turn.

Sensibly, my opponent has waited to eliminate the Tula-Orel pocket, and every mech unit that I can identify is grouped north and south of Moscow. That armoured wedge hammered in the south-east is particularly dangerous. As a result Stavka takes the following possibilities serious: either the "big solution", which would win the war before Christmas, if successful:

Or the merely disastrous small solution, which would isolate Moscow but leave the bulk of the Western and Kalinin fronts, and the Moscow MD, intact.

Now, I'm not sure whether either of these can be done. The Soviets are weak, the marshes may be frozen, the German panzers that are in supply may be brim full of petrol - and the supply indicators suggest they might be - and it's the distinguishing feature of the best German players that they are able to do things that looked impossible. On the other hand ... the northern line would require a lot of time consuming deliberate attacks to crack, the pincers have to cover about 100 miles in total, and failure (or even success) would expose the Wehrmacht to destruction in the blizzard.

So what will the Germans choose?

hooooper, not many people saying anything out there, but just let me tell you watching your game leaves me breathless. What sense of suspense! Great show there.

ORIGINAL: hooooper
So what will the Germans choose?

The question is what will you do to prevent the different plans? [:)]

Thank you, Fishbed. Tullius, I've placed my bets now. I think Bomazz would be brave to go all-in for the big solution, but his entire strategy, it seems to me now, has been to take Moscow with a very big encirclement indeed. If he pulls back that will be a moral victory for the Soviets. On the other hand, I have lost a lot of units, many of them after November, and if B goes for Pelton's AP crunch in 42, it is going to be a test for the Red Army.

Provided the front in the south have not changed a lot since the T20 screen, you can handle the loss of manpower that loosing Moscow would mean. Do make an effort to move the factories if any are still left.

Yes, I'm saying that it sometimes (most times) is better to loose a city than an army. Even more true when you are already short on units and men. Tough choice to make the first time, it does get easier. [;)]

Take this with a grain of salt [8D] I don't think he will try to surround Moscow. He's lost armored hordes, this should have scared him. Big time. And this annihilation also proves he is not that strong in this area.

Now if he is the kamikaze type... [:D]

Turn 22
The Axis snow offensive opens with heavy fighting at Osinovets: three deliberate attacks, which are fended off with heavy casualties on both sides. Ominously, the port's fortifications are beginning to crack ...

At Moscow, the tension continues. Strong attacks have been made north and south of the city. In the north, the panzers are over the canal, and 3rd Army's front is beginning to weaken. In the south, the Germans have improved their position and are still in a position to attempt the small and the big solution

In the centre and the south, there has been heavy fighting east of Kursk ...

And Kharkov