ORIGINAL: tiemanj
5/2/1943
Pilot Training, part 1
For a little while now, I've been proud of my USA pilot training program. Of course, I have no real idea how many I need - it just seemed like I had a lot (around 1300), with good experience - 46 80+, a few hundred 70+, about 3/4 60+). But is that enough for the coming years?
So I went through and counted the number of A/C I will get from here on out. Since army fighter A/C production changes over nearly entirely in the summer of '43 - I added up all the A/C I would get from these production runs. The total number is about 10,500. In addition, I wanted to know what my "casualty rate" has been. Casualty rate is the % change a pilot is KIA, WIA, or MIA once his A/C is lost. Losses include Air, Flak, and Ops losses (ground losses have been excluded). To date I have lost 1385 USA fighters, and 273 USA pilots. For a [seemingly low] causality rate of just under 20%. This seems a little low to me - perhaps it is due to the fact that my USA pilots, until now, have been flying mostly CAP missions close to friendly bases. I assume this rate will go up as I go on the offensive, so for figuring out the number of pilots I will need, I'll assume my rate goes up to 40% (in line with USN and USMC numbers).
So I will get 10,500 A/C over the next 3 years. For planning purposes, let’s assume that I will use all of these A/C (either they get lost or they replace losses and at the end of the war I have 0 A/C in my pools). To make the math simple, I will just apply the causality rate of 40% to that number, and assume I need 4200 pilots to fly these A/C.
Now, it appears to me (subjectively - more on this later) that it takes about 5 months to get pilots through my training syllabus (4 months to get to about 50 exp, 70 air, 60+ def and 1 month of rear area CAP missions to get exp to 60). Further, I can have about 125% pilots to A/C ratio in these squadrons. So my training rate is 4 A/C can train 5 pilots in 5 months. Or 1 A/C can train .25 pilots in 1 month. I estimate I have 36 months left until the summer of '46 (again to make the math easier). This comes out to needing 465 A/C to train 4200 pilots in 36 months. This is the good news - I have just a bit shy of 400 A/C doing training right now. If I add in the restricted A-36 squadrons I am just now getting (I'll change them to P40Ks as newer models start coming off the line in July) I'll be up to the target number.
I know this isn't a thorough analysis - a true bean counter can pick this apart with ease. But it is a starting point to gauge pilot production.
Now, the USA appears to be ok. The USN is dreadfully behind. The USN will get 15,500 fighters over the next 3 years. Considering that both USN and USMC draw from the same pools, I will add their pilots together. With an expected (and currently observed) causality rate of 40%, I will need 6200 pilots - and 688 A/C training pilots. The USMC is doing their part - with about 200 A/C training pilots. The USN though only has about 100 producing pilots. I really need to boost this number by about 300 or so. I found about 150 (Seagulls) training patrol and recon pilots that I can afford to switch over to "sweep" training. That should be a good start, but I really need to find a few squadrons I can pull off the lines and start training pilots.
Now as to the question, how quickly can you train a pilot? I said I used 5 months, but that is just a SWAG. And can I do things to make this go quicker? I don't know. So I looked to San Francisco. I have 6 training groups there. I decided to set each up differently, and see who trains the quickest:
328/444th FS
My control squadron. This squadron is led by career officer COL McDaniel. COL McDaniel doesn't have much skill or experience either flying A/C or leading men. He got the job because there was no place else to put him (he was the default leader for this squadron). This leaders / groups ratings:
48 LDR
52 Insp
36 Air
49 Admin
56 Aggr
26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
26 Avg Defense
328/326th FS
Experiment 1. MAJ Cullen has been brought back from the front after his 11th kill. He has 81 Exp and 70 Air skill. He wants to just return to the front, but has been told the war effort needs him to train 100 MAJ Cullens before he can return. He rises to the challenge, and has put his full energies into the work. As it turns out he is an excellent instructor as well as motivator. He hopes to use this gig to catapult him into command of a combat squadron.
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
64 Admin
45 Aggr
26 Avg Exp
27 Avg Air
26 Avg Def
328/327th FS
Experiment 2. 1LT Holt, a former wingman of MAJ Cullen, has also been brought back to train new pilots. The Army wants to know though, do 5 Aces make for quicker instruction than 1? 1LT Holt's leader ratings are very close to MAJ Cullen, but he has the luxury of having 4 additional instructors with experience over 80 helping him. This squadron's instructors have combined for 55 kills in 900 missions over Burma. Will this translate into faster recruit production? Time will tell. (Note this group has higher average values because these 5 instructors are affecting the averages)
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
47 Admin
49 Aggr
33 Avg Exp
31 Avg Air
31 Avg Def
328/329th FS
Experiment 3. LTC Donohew has a solid rep as a leader. His skills are well balanced. However, he has little experience to date - fighting the war from Washington so far. He has lobbied to get a combat billet, but instead has been given a training squadron in the states. Like MAJ Cullen, he hopes to get a combat command someday. Unlike the rest of the instructors so far, LTC Donohew has no flying experience, and does not fly. He is an administrative leader only.
64 LDR
66 Insp
65 Air
58 Admin
61 Aggr
25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
25 Avg Def
329/330th
Experiment 4. All of the other squadrons have a full TO&E of 25 P39s. This group (and the next) have only 12 of 25 A/C - all aging P38Es. This group is led by the LTC Morrissey. He is a career officer, not unlike COL McDaniel. Despite his lack of airframes for training, he has been given access to classrooms and Link Trainers. Washington expects him to produce. I do not. Time will tell.
49 LDR
44 Insp
43 Air
42 Admin
49 Aggr
26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
24 Avg Def
329/332nd
Experiment 5. This squadron is the same as the 329/330th, except it has an experienced combat pilot as its leader. 1LT Degraffenreid has 7 kills in 307 missions over Burma before being sent back to the states as a flight instructor. He leads a group of trainees with only 12 airframes to train them with.
78 LDR
78 Insp
45 Air
68 Admin
37 Aggr
25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
24 Avg Def
I'll be checking in on these groups from time to time over the next few months and report back what happens.
6/17/1943
Pilot Training Experiment, 1 1/2 months in
Those of you actually reading my musings may remember that back at the beginning of May, I filled out 6 training squadrons with freshly drawn in replacements. The leaders of each squadron were picked to see what leaders qualities were most desired for your training wings, and if it even made a difference (and was thus worth the PP expense and opportunity cost to have good leaders training your replacements instead of on the front lines).
Following is the results after about a month and a half of training:
328/326th FS (Maj Cullen)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 27 26 78 88 50 64 45 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 38 64 50 78 88 50 64 45
Diff 12 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/327th FS (1LT Haywood)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 33 31 31 78 88 50 47 49 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 44 66 54 78 88 50 47 49 4 additional high exp pilots
Diff 11 35 23 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/329th FS (LTC Donohew)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 25 25 25 64 66 65 58 61 good, well balanced leader
6/17 37 63 49 64 66 65 58 61
Diff 12 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/444th FS (COL McDaniel)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 25 25 48 52 36 49 56 stock leader (no PP to change)
6/17 37 64 50 48 52 36 49 56
Diff 11 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
329/330th FS (LTC Morrissey)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 26 24 49 44 43 42 49 stock leader (no PP to change)
6/17 35 57 43 49 44 43 42 49
Diff 9 31 19 0 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es
329/332nd FS (1LT Degraffenreid)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 25 25 24 78 78 45 68 37 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 34 56 42 79 78 45 68 37
Diff 9 31 18 1 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es
*******************************************************************
Or, to better illustrate the different gains, here is a table of the gains listed by squadron
Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr
328/326th 12 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/327th 11 35 23 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/329th 12 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/444th 11 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
329/330th 9 31 19 0 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es
329/332nd 9 31 18 1 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es
*******************************************************************
So, after 1.5 months, it is hard to see a difference for leadership. The only thing that appears to matter is the airframes / trainee ratio.
For the 4 groups with 25/25 A/C: they all gained about 12 exp, upper 30s in air and mid 20s in def. They all have an Avg exp of 37-38 (except the 327th whose averages are skewed by the 4 aces added to see if it made a difference - if I take those 4 out of the average, I get 38 Avg exp). They all have about 64 air and 50 def. Good leadership qualities, good additional pilot instructors have made no notable difference to date.
The only notable difference is to compare the 4 groups with 25/25 A/C to the 2 with 12/25 A/C (note all squadrons are maxed out to 33 pilots). The 2 shorthanded squadrons both gained 9 exp, 31 air and 18-19 def for totals of 34-35 exp, 56-57 air, 42-43 def. This is about 3 less exp, 7 less air, and 5 less def compared to the squadrons at full TO&E.
Further, it seems that my second hope - some promising leaders with a hole in their leadership stats could get seasoned up as leaders before being sent to the front. The only gain in leadership stats for the group was a 1 point bump in leadership for 1LT Degraffenreid - who already had an excellent leadership rating. The anemic air and aggr ratings for Cullen, Haywood, and Degraffenreid were all unaffected.
These are preliminary results. I will finish the experiment to see if differences start to show up as the pilots approach graduation. Typically, with my training classes, I wait until the primary skill (air in this case) is near 70 and switch to training a secondary skill (100' sweep in the case of most fighter pilots). The whole class stays together until most have an exp of 50+.
edit: wow! those tables really come out awful. Here is a screen shot of an excel sheet.
