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ORIGINAL: katukov

ORIGINAL: Iron Mike Golf

@katukov: Missile model also implies missile age. And that can go to malfunction rate. And the article does not say who's stocks the missiles come from. Just that the Saudis are delivering. So, if they are old, another good question is "Who has maintained them?"

Someone watched all those videos with the TOW launches and here's some statistics.

32 were launched against the tanks. 10 without any doubt destroyed the tank ( 31% ), 9 missed ( 28% ) and 13 hit the tank but a kill cannot be confirmed ( 40 % ). In those cases the tank was probably damaged/immobilized. Of course some of those were actually kills, but it's also worth keeping in mind, that the rebels don't post online some portion of the misses. This statistics is interesting from the point of view of RS, because Syrian forces field vintage T-55, T-62, T-72A/M models. It seems that the ATGMs manage to score a certain kill in about 30-40% of the cases.

TOW are very deadly.. If the TOW operator is safe.

In egyptian-Israel war, the anti-tank missiles were first very deadly (like what you report)... unless the Israel tank operator learned to fire machine-gun immediatly at the missile departure area. The effiency quickly drop to almost 0%. You can't really concentrate on guiding a missile when under heavy machinegun fire ^^ (even poorly aimed)

It seem Syrian Arab Army Tank operators haven't mastered that. (Or can't see the missiles departures ): In any case, that need combat-ready, cold-blood, well trained tank operators (as any tank operator should be ^^)

A small map, with signaled TOW fires (red dots) and russian airstrikes (white stars) in a sector near alaouïte land:



Many other maps: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015 ... rikes.html

Note the russians have merged all "pro-Assad" brigades and militias in the new "4th SAA army corps" (75.000 soldiers in training now) and started to train and command it. Expect these guys ready in 2 more months.

https://www.facebook.com/syrianmilitary ... 673981982/

This war has just begun... (I don't really expect anything from the actual "peace talks": it's just bargaining some time)

First confirmed picture of T-90 guarding the Russian air base.


imag

Is that T-90's?

Spotteds on syria's road, aiming to the front, following an increase of russian involvement on the ground.





Here: a T-72B3 left, next to a T-90 rigth:

"This business will get out of control! It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it!"

- Admiral Josh Painter, The Hunt for Red October.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983




How many Soviet planes were shot downy by PAK AF during the Soviet–Afghan War?

Wait for the "we have proof which side of the border it was flying" from both NATO and Russia that of course wont match up, will be interesting to see Russia's response

Apparently how the CSAR helicopter was destroyed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IschF-i ... e=youtu.be

-snip-

Stupid thing for me to say, emotionally driven.

I doubt this will escalate any further beyond a few angry shouting matches.

It's time we kick Turkey out of NATO.

That's a rather drastic move.



The plane clearly flew over Turkish airspace.

Was it a dirty stab in the back? Yes, but they were within full rights to shoot down that Su-24.

Turkey was in their rights IF this is a true representation of what happened.

However, Turkey should think twice before taking that kind of drastic action. Instead they could have locked AA missile battery radar on the Russian jet, and even scrambled fighters to escort the Russian out of its airspace. Turkey is too uncooperative, and its leaders too dumb...Turkey and its leadership is not worth WWIII.

Russia will punish Turkey militarily for this, Turkey will invoke article 5, no one will respond, NATO will be in danger of collapse. All this because of no western leadership.

That is a serious over reaction for Turkey, that strip of turkey is a mere 2-3km wide, the Russian aircraft would of flown over it in seconds, the fact they were warned 10 times suggests they were hitting targets very near the border, is turkey allowing a Syria civil war faction to operate from within its borders??

I wouldn't be surprised if Russian CAP started happening near the border region they already mentioned increased air defence or maybe divert some S300 deliveries from Iran to Syria. we might see a wider array of Russian equipment being deployed to the region.

NATO has to defend Turkey, it cant afford to become something akin to the league of nations, although I think the Turkish airforce is going to come under pressure to fly very carefully in the coming weeks else a mistake could cost Turkey/NATO.

According to NATO, Russian plane was flying during 17 seconds over the Turkish territory. Russians already stated that they are going to deploy to Syria a cruiser with naval version of S-300. Also, all their attack planes will fly now with the fighter escort.

Gotta love the internet at times

Ha, ha! That was a good one Tazak!

Turkey admitted the Russians were two seconds over Turkish airspace...but warned them prior. Obviously they were shot down in Syrian space.

That area where this is happening Turkey grabbed in 1939 and was never recognized by Syria or France.

Of course Turkey is taking advantage of the civil war (including helping ISIS...where do you think their oil goes to be sold?...and the transit point for ISIS fighters)...the only ones they do not help are the Kurds.

In my opinion Turkey is part of the problem today...and has been for 15 years.

I think we should see increased arms supply to kurdish fighters on either side of the border...

Look, this was not the first time the Russians have violated Turkish Airspace. They have done this repeatedly and have been repeatedly warned not to. They continued to do it and this particular plane was warned 10 times. The U.S. Stationed addition F-15s there because if these incessant violations of airspace Russia wants to Bully its neighbors and got punched. Turkey was tired of the lack of respect for its sovereignty and airspace. Drastic? Maybe...but how many times is it supposed to allow Russian military aircraft to overfly its territory.

This is from October. They told the Russians they were risking a conflict back then

http://m.sputniknews.com/middleeast/201 ... ation.html

I agree Stimpak, the Kurds deserve our support!

As for the Turks, they should know shooting down a plane could start something much bigger. Other NATO members have escorted Russian aircraft away.

Taking Putin's psychology, face saving, and political issues into account, you know there will be retaliation. The question is what? In a way, I think this is exactly what Putin has wanted. This gives him the chance to unravel NATO. He has 14 months to do what he wants since there is no western leadership with the stomach to stand up to him (or the Chinese)...or even ISIS.

Jordan was angry about their executed pilot and swore they would bring hell to ISIS, what did they do?...a few bombing runs. UAE quit the "coalition" because the coalition was not serious about the fight. France attacks ISIS with a few bombing runs, brings a carrier into theater, and does not have the guts to invoke NATO article 5. The US gives 45 min warning to any attacks. Weak, very weak. Only the Kurds are doing anything.

Turkey is hypocritical to complain of other's violations, let alone shoot down a plane for it, given that they regularly violate Greek airspace.

ORIGINAL: Stimpak
Turkey is hypocritical to complain of other's violations, let alone shoot down a plane for it, given that they regularly violate Greek airspace.

Turkey have lost a plane in Syria in 2012, from a border violation too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012 ... h_aircraft

Their response at that time:

Gül said that "it is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over [national] borders