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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:04 pm
by Erik Rutins
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:15 pm
by Ian R
ORIGINAL: Macclan5
During the outbreak of the "Spanish flu pandemic" we seemed to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change.
During the 2020s we seem to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change.
I was going to suggest there is one fundamental difference* - the world of 1900 had a nation state in it which combined a modern western nation's industrial and military power, and an irresponsible eastern monarchy government whose foreign policy was driven by testosterone, old grudges, and greed. The world of 2020 doesn't.
But that may not actually be true.
[*Also, nuclear weapons.]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:37 pm
by Ian R
That was quick (and this is a week old).
Coronavirus vaccine goes into test production.
A factory in Melbourne has started producing a test dose of a potential coronavirus vaccine which scientists will begin testing on animals this week.
The test vaccine was developed in just six weeks by University of Queensland researchers using world-first molecular clamp technology...
The University of Queensland team began work on their vaccine on January 11, when the first coronavirus genome – its DNA blueprint – was uploaded to the internet by Chinese scientists.
“We did not need the virus itself. All we needed was the sequence,” said Professor Paul Young.
The clamps are designed to hold the complex, changing the shape of the spike protein so the human immune system can get a good look at it – and learn to kill it.
"This is the first candidate of possibly many," said Professor George Lovrecz, research team leader at CSIRO’s manufacturing division.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/austral ... 5436l.html
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:39 pm
by Chickenboy
Designing RT-PCR primer sets that are specific to COVID-19 and only that virus (so as to not yield related viral false positives) is hard work and fraught with difficulty. Considering the fact that they've had the virus for what-one month?-I think they're doing the best they can in a difficult environment and time.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:46 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: DOCUP
After a few days they start feeling better (but not fulling recovered). They go out and start working in the fields, factory, or trenches. The flu comes back with a vengeances, this time they don't have the same type reserves (stored fat, energy etc) they had during the first battle with the flu.
I don't think that's going to be that much of an issue with the ballyhooed 14 day quarantine in use. Totally different bug. Totally different assumptions about how much host viral latency or viral survivability.
I've read about one woman that retested positive for the virus after she had been released from the hospital. This is entirely possible with RT-PCR. The test only measures the presence of sequenced nucleic acids that match the virus, not the virus viability. You can have (and do have) PCR positives in patients that have effectively squashed the viral infection and 'cleared' the infective virus that have detectable RNA/DNA from their swabs.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:52 pm
by Chickenboy
I wanna know how Nepal is confirming their cases. Same with Pakistan and Iran. If you tell me that they are doing COVID-19 RT-PCR with dedicated and specific primer sets for that particular virus as part of their confirmatory methodology, then I call Bullshit. I think a lot of these place are 'kitchen sink-ing' respiratory diseases with similar symptomotology without confirming the disease.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:54 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
A dog in Hong Kong has tested ‘weak positive’ for coronavirus
https://fortune.com/2020/02/27/coronavi ... hong-kong/
The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday.
The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out further tests to confirm whether the dog has really been infected with the disease, or if it was a result of environmental contamination of its mouth and nose.
Wouldn't surprise me at all.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:02 pm
by MakeeLearn
https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020 ... this-month
"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."
"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:02 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
Economic downturns are also dangerous
Aye, they can be. I think we need to leaven our approach with moderation as a result, as many of the self-inflicted economic wounds could be prevented by limiting our overreaction. Example? My mother wanted to fly to California to visit some relatives there in March. But she is giving serious thought to cancelling her flight because someone from California was being treated in the same county that she is planning to visit. This sort of head-in-the-sand at all cost behavior x 330 million will not keep anyone demonstrably safer, but could set off an economic downturn.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:03 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020 ... this-month
"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."
"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
Good find, MakeeLearn. And the Iranians and Pakistanis?
ETA: Found a good article published 3 hours ago in the
Wall Street Journal. Paywall, sorry. But there do appear to be some (until today) issues with access to appropriate diagnostics. There are also some models that show that there is a high probability of between 11,000 and 41,000 cases in Iran, nearly all unreported.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:36 pm
by BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020 ... this-month
"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."
"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
Good find, MakeeLearn. And the Iranians and Pakistanis?
ETA: Found a good article published 3 hours ago in the
Wall Street Journal. Paywall, sorry. But there do appear to be some (until today) issues with access to appropriate diagnostics. There are also some models that show that there is a high probability of between 11,000 and 41,000 cases in Iran, nearly all unreported.
I just heard on TV News that the Vice President and Health Minister of Iran are among the infected. I am not sure how that info leaked, and I am not sure if that would make them more or less likely to admit they have a problem. Secrecy about things like this makes no sense to me - no one should be embarrassed that a new virus got into the population and no responsible government should pretend it isn't happening or avoid talking about reasonable personal precautions. Coordinated international response is called for, including rich nations helping poor ones beat this thing so it doesn't come back around.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:37 pm
by MakeeLearn
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:56 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020 ... this-month
"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."
"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
Good find, MakeeLearn. And the Iranians and Pakistanis?
ETA: Found a good article published 3 hours ago in the
Wall Street Journal. Paywall, sorry. But there do appear to be some (until today) issues with access to appropriate diagnostics. There are also some models that show that there is a high probability of between 11,000 and 41,000 cases in Iran, nearly all unreported.
I just heard on TV News that the Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister of Iran are among the infected. I am not sure how that info leaked, and I am not sure if that would make them more or less likely to admit they have a problem. Secrecy about things like this makes no sense to me - no one should be embarrassed that a new virus got into the population and no
responsible government should pretend it isn't happening or avoid talking about reasonable personal precautions. Coordinated international response is called for, including rich nations helping poor ones beat this thing so it doesn't come back around.
Yeah. Both of those high ranking officials' sickness were cited in the WSJ article. The article also touched on how the promotion of religious pilgrimages in Qom and elsewhere are likely contributing to spread of the disease. But, of course, the Ayatollahs certainly don't want to crimp folks' comings and goings to mosques to control disease.
The last thing the Iranian government is is a responsible government that is responsive to the needs or wants of their peoples. So all bets are off there.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:57 pm
by Footslogger
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020 ... this-month
"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."
"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
Good find, MakeeLearn. And the Iranians and Pakistanis?
ETA: Found a good article published 3 hours ago in the
Wall Street Journal. Paywall, sorry. But there do appear to be some (until today) issues with access to appropriate diagnostics. There are also some models that show that there is a high probability of between 11,000 and 41,000 cases in Iran, nearly all unreported.
I just heard on TV News that the Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister of Iran are among the infected. I am not sure how that info leaked, and I am not sure if that would make them more or less likely to admit they have a problem. Secrecy about things like this makes no sense to me - no one should be embarrassed that a new virus got into the population and no responsible government should pretend it isn't happening or avoid talking about reasonable personal precautions. Coordinated international response is called for, including rich nations helping poor ones beat this thing so it doesn't come back around.
Leak:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcGyiFcFP5U
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:15 pm
by Zorch
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
Economic downturns are also dangerous
Aye, they can be. I think we need to leaven our approach with moderation as a result, as many of the self-inflicted economic wounds could be prevented by limiting our overreaction. Example? My mother wanted to fly to California to visit some relatives there in March. But she is giving serious thought to cancelling her flight because someone from California was being treated in the same county that she is planning to visit. This sort of head-in-the-sand at all cost behavior x 330 million will not keep anyone demonstrably safer, but could set off an economic downturn.
I would argue that people will find others ways to spend their money if they can't travel. And if all avenues of spending are cutoff, they just might <shudder> save more and thereby stimulate investment.
Of course, the object of saving is to be able to spend more later. [8D]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:38 am
by Canoerebel
It looks like the situation in the USA and the rest of North America is pretty much the same as it was yesterday, while in some places things are worse (Iran, mostly).
It's interesting to watch the American news media go berserk.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:06 am
by Erik Rutins
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Designing RT-PCR primer sets that are specific to COVID-19 and only that virus (so as to not yield related viral false positives) is hard work and fraught with difficulty. Considering the fact that they've had the virus for what-one month?-I think they're doing the best they can in a difficult environment and time.
I would believe that, except that every other developed country got it done at capacity before us. In addition, it turns out that declaring an emergency here actually prevented everyone but CDC on moving forward with their own tests, which was somehow considered a good idea in a health emergency. [8|]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:08 am
by Erik Rutins
Now we have two geographically separated cases in California from apparent community spread, a community spread case in an Oregon school, a community spread case in a Washington school. Based on the experience of other countries so far, who knows how big these outbreaks actually are? Not us, because we've only had the capacity and guidelines to test folks from China while it breaks out across the world.
"With an increase in unknown origin cases and a change in testing guidelines across the country, CDC officials said they were hoping to have every state and local health department testing for the virus by the end of next week."
Yeah, I'm sure the virus will be fine with that.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:00 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
It's interesting to watch the American news media go berserk.
It sure doesn't take much these days, does it?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:27 pm
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
It's interesting to watch the American news media go berserk.
It sure doesn't take much these days, does it?
I think in recent years it's their default state.