Having finally managed to get troops across from Gibraltar to Tangier, the Axis made one attack this turn.
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You'll notice that in the panel that shows the
Odds Column: 3:1, the Armor modifier shows both modifiers. The first (-1.00) is for an Assault, and the second is for a Blitz attack. With the Blitz Bonus optional rules, the defending MECH
always gets the die roll modifier if defending in a non-city clear or desert hex, regardless of the Assault/Blitz decision; attackers only get the bonus if conducting a Blitz attack. Since Germany will have the option to choose the attack type, the "net" modifier is shown based on that assumption: -1 for combat friction, nothing for Armor (Blitz Bonus).
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This particular attack, with a 91% chance of moving up to the 4:1 column, has a 60% chance of gaining the hex:
And the results:
Attack on Spanish Morocco [75, 17]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .653 (Yes), Roll = 9-1 = 8 = */1B (Not Converted to Retreat, TERR destroyed)
I suppose you could see this as another lucky roll, but there was a 40% chance of a Breakthrough, so while the roll was a high one, it was not a "must have" kind of roll producing the victory.
So, the CW is down to 2 units in Morocco, and the French have just 1 there. The Blitzing German Corps charged right on into the hex where the Italians started the attack, waving as they crossed paths and grinning the whole time. The 2 Italian Corps and the German ART took over control of the attacked hex, and the CW MECH will find itself mysteriously in the UK come S/O '40.
The CW has a few choices now:
1. Take an Air Impulse, so the Liner in Cape St. Vincent can reorganize the LND in Casablanca so that it can rebase safely out of harm's way (along with the FTR in Rabat)
2. Take another Combined impulse, so that the CV Glorious is certain to escape, a 10-stack can be built in Rabat, and the FTR can rebase, although the LND is likely to be lost.
3. Panic.
Of these options, I consider #2 to be the best. Gort is a'gonna die, but he should force the Axis to mount a solid attack by including the Canadian MIL. Losing the LND would be sad, but risking the loss of the CV would be worse, I think.
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Okay, I just looked up the rules and as long as the CV is not disorganized (and it isn't), it doesn't risk being lost, so maybe option #1 is the best. Yes, Rabat will be easier to take, but as long as the Canadian MIL can stay organized, the Axis needs to beat it with an attack that can take on 10 defense factors. And if it doesn't get that done this turn, there might be some shore bombardment to deal with, too. Germany can't very well begin toasting its victory if there are still anemy troops in the neighborhood, even if it
has "conquered" the nation, can it?
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Edit: For those of you wondering why I don't suggest a Land or Naval impulse, the CW has only 7 SCS in port and organized, and 5 of them are in Aden. The other two are Greek ships trapped in Cyprus. Taking a Combined Action would let me bring the Canadian TERR over to Morocco, but that only adds 3 Factors . . . and if it defends alone, which it would have to do in Casablanca (Rabat is not a port), it gives the enemy +1 on the die roll. To me that seems like a waste of 2 BP.
As for a Land Action, what can I really do with it that I can't do with a Combined Action? There are only 3 units worth moving anyway, and 2 of them probably shouldn't (the 2 in Suez). The CW has to hope the turn ends quickly (now, preferably), so that it can get its navy back into the game.