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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Vettim, I have absolutely no clue as to the KB's whereabouts - not even the the most fleeting sightings of a carrier, cruiser, or carrier aircraft in weeks.  Any guess I make is based purely upon my assessment of John's tendencies.  So my first guess would be the Coral Sea; second guess would be a central location (like Palau) to permit John to strike at Iwo or Eniwetok as needed or if an opportunity arises; third guess would be a strike around Sumatra; fourth and last guess would be a position (like the Sea of Japan) where it can support a move on Sikhalin Island (which I rate unlikely).

And that, my friend, is what makes it so enjoyable for us to read these parallel AAR's. We see both sides and I personally have gotten a chuckle as both of your paranoias have manifestedd themselves. What has been fun is seeing both of you worrying about an an attack here or an attack there and knowing the other guy hasn't even considered that. Then again, it has also been scary how spot on both of you have been guessing where your opponents next move was going to be

"Leaving Essex at home, that will give the American carrier TF roughly 976 fighters, 320 Helldivers, and 480 TBMs and TBFs."
 
Canorebel,
 
Wow, that's a lot of firepower to have.  I don't envy John trying to fend this off, especially now that you've got Iwo Jima, and Eniwetok.  With those 2 bases, are you within range to start pounding Japan with B-29s?  BTW, my father-in-law was stationed at one point on Eniwetok with the 7th Div during WWII (he was later at Okinawa and Seoul, Korea as an occupation force).  I fortunately found that out talking with him in 2007 before he died later that year from lung cancer that spread from colo-rectal cancer (a very difficult year for my wife).  Anyway, good hunting.

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: JeffK

How good is the japanese Night Fighter force?[:-]

They suck. [8|]

So.....

Sending 200+ B29-24-17 at night to a japanese city outside of fighter escort range might cause some damage.

If used sparingly it could see some fighters diverted to defend the bases, at the least, it another thing for John to think about.

(I suppose the question is also, how good is night bombing?)

edit Whoops, didnt see canoerebels answer.

ORIGINAL: JeffK

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: JeffK

How good is the japanese Night Fighter force?[:-]

They suck. [8|]

So.....

Sending 200+ B29-24-17 at night to a japanese city outside of fighter escort range might cause some damage.

If used sparingly it could see some fighters diverted to defend the bases, at the least, it another thing for John to think about.

(I suppose the question is also, how good is night bombing?)

edit Whoops, didnt see canoerebels answer.

I rarely find night bombing worth the effort. But, TBH, I've never had "real" bombers. I've only played the Japanese. [:'(]

Dan,

I am playing the same mod and tried night bombing Sabang out of Rangoon in August 1943. My groups were all fairly high exp (some approaching 90) as they ha been fighting all war long in CBI. First, only about 1/3 of the designate aircraft flew the mission an a 50 strong 4E raid yielded 0 as in none, nada, zippo AB hits. I don't know if you will see similar results but my guess is you will probably find it just as futile

In the beginning of the game I used the Blenheim Nightfighters (maybe RHS specifcic?) to attack enemy airfields at night.
I payed more in operational losses than I gain in actual damage but depending on your opponent it might be worthwile to freak him out and attract counter attacks to those airfields they started from.

Of course this was just a diversion and canoerebels situation is very different, but nevertheless he might come to the conclusion its worthwhile.

Like others, I find night bombing fairly useless, at least with the Japanese.  Flying night bombing raids with Betties/Nells out of Rabaul against Lunga, I have had basically no real success.  Maybe 1 AB hit per 50 planes in the raid, and I destroy maybe 1 airplane on the ground.  And this is with Lunga something like triple-overstacked, maybe 550 planes on a level 4 airfield.  Unfortunately I can't do anything against the 200+ fighters at Lunga to attack during the day, and massed PT flotillas shred any bombardment raids or slow them down to get sunk by DBs then next day.  And that's with daily Dinah recon flights.  Admitedly, the bombers crews experience numbers are generally low 50-70, but even when I have transferred in some 80+ exp Sentai it doesn't make much difference.
 
Strangely enough, my Bettie/Nell groups do manage to damage (and even shoot down) some of the elite F4Fs (VF-6 with some impressive pilots) he sets on night fighter duty, so it amuses me to keep the night bombing going. 
 
Of cours B-29s with much better bombloads going after strategic targets in the Home Islands might have better luck.

Thanks for all your thoughts about night bombing.
 
At present, daytime raids are still quite effective and losses acceptable.  Given that and the fact that I don't want to prompt John to retaliate with nighttime raids against my Shikuka airfields - a tactic that might force me bring in night fighters and therefore reduce my bomber numbers - I'll stick with the current modus operandi.  If the daytime raids become ineffective or losses prohibitive, I'll certainly reconsider.

8/3/44 and 8/4/44
 
SEAC:  Allied troops took Camranh Bay on the 3rd and Bangkok on the 4th.  The Jap forces in Siam/Cambodia/Vietnam are in retreat and concentrating at Saigon.  But a small Allied army will advance tonight from Kompong Son to take Phnom Penh, thus cutting off the small Japanese army retreating from Bangkok.  I don't know if John will try a Dunkirk through Saigon as he has already lost scores of transports in this are over the past month.  Further south, the Allies are continuing periodic attacks at Malacca, but for now just bombarding at Johore Bharu.  I don't know if John will leave his Malaya forces to fight to the end, or try to Dunkirk through Singapore.  If the latter, he'll probably time the arrival of the transports with an appearance by the KB to discourage RN combat ships from getting involved.

NoPac:  The Allies will land at Dutch Harbor tonight.  Yesterday, 150 4EB hit Sapporo's resources and airfield, primarily as a reminder that the Allies aren't forgetting this post.  I don't want John to slip 1,500 aircraft into Hokkaido's airfields as a prelude to hitting the Allied bases on Sikhalin Island.

CenPac:  The Allied Wake Island reinforcement armada leaves Midway tonight.  This force consists of the following TFs:  8 CV/CVL; 4 CVE (each with 8 escort carriers); 2 combat (with a total of 4 BBs); and a multitude of transports carrying HQ, engineers, armor, artillery, and three Army divisions.  When this force arrives at Wake, I'll first unload supplies for the Allied army already there, then when those troops are fully supplied the new units will land.

SWPac:  No sign of Japanese countermeasures against Allied troops on New Caledonia or at Milne Bay.  A deliberate attack at Koumac came off at 1:1, and the Japs have 5 forts.  I'll rest a few days and try again.

Points:  (1) 61,599 to (J) 55,303; Ratio:  1.11 to 1; Strategic:  9,454.

Long Term Plans:  Soon the Allies will have SEAC cleared (or mostly cleared).  With big forward airfields in place, important Japanese bases like Palembang, Batavia, and those on Borneo will be within range.  The RN will also have the ability to sail in the South China Sea, or at least the western half.  The Allies can choose then whether to invade Java, Borneo, or even coastal China.  The latter is an enticing thought because these airbases are close to Japan and the Allies can bring in supplies by sea.  To the east, once the Allies take care of Wake Island, the next move will be South to link up with ANZAC forces moving north.  The main forcus from there will be to move west to obtain bases within range of Truk, Palau, and the Celebes.  But the Allies will also devote some units to backfilling towards Luganville, Suva, and other remote bases.

You might want to consider putting all your attack aircraft in the Wake Is invasion force on Nav Attack/Port Attack. If you pummel the port to dust before the fresh troops unload, CD fire will be greatly reduced

8/5/44 and 8/6/44
 
SEAC:  A vacant Phnom Penh fell to the Allies on the 6th, separating a small Japanese army retreating from Bangkok from the main Japanese army at Saigon.  A Chinese army is approaching Saigon from the north while a mixed Allied army moves that way from the west.  To the south, the Allies continue efforts to reduce Japanese defenses at Malacca and Johore Bharu.  Tomorrow, the three B-29 squadrons at Georgetown will hit Palembang's resources, the first scheduled strike on that city in weeks.

Japan:  Allied 4EB from Sikhalin Island, Iwo Jima, and China hit Osaka/Kobe (resources and airfield) and Niigata (heavy industry and airfield) on the 6th.  This time the fighter battle was essentially even and the bombers made effective runs, knocking out 68 HI at Niigata and 27 resources at Osaka/Kobe.  On the day, the Allies lost 75 aircraft (64 a-2-a, 0 field, 4 flak, 7 ops) to 97 for the Japs (62, 30, 1, 4).

NoPac:  The Allies are landing at Dutch Harbor, but I'm using AKs so it's slow going and I'll wait three or four days to attack to give time for troops to recover from disruption, and to unload supplies.

CenPac:  Quiet at Iwo Jima.  The massive Wake Island armada is about 400 miles south of Midway.  (Vettim, I'll probably use bombardment TF with three BBs to suppress Jap shore guns, and use the CVE TBMs to suppress Wake's airfield).  John currently has 130 bombers posted at Wake - I expect him to withdraw his aircraft as soon as the Allied force nears; if he doesn't, that would be a sign that he intends an all-out fight with the KB joining LBA (but I don't expect him to do this).

SWPac:  Quiet as the Allies keep a wary eye out for the KB, and bide their time until they can move north and east in numbers, linking up with the Americans that will head south after the Wake operation is finished.

Points:  (a) 62,057 to (j) 55,338; Ratio:  1.12 to 1; Strategic:  9,782.

Morale:  I noted last week that John was sending turns at a frantic rate - usually a sign that he's up to something big.  Nothing big ever happened and now the turn-around has become very slow.  He seems to have temporarily lost interest in the game.  It could be that the Japs are in such a position that he's not enjoying the game right now, or this could be an elaborate hoax to throw me off by departing from his usual behavior.  IE - I'm not certain how to read things at the moment.

Operation Shooting Star:  This will be the next major Allied move following the conquest of Wake, Saigon, and Singapore (should those events happen in a reasonable time) and will be the Allied thrust toward Java, Borneo, the Philippines, or even Japan.  I know the target, but shall keep the plans close to the vest for now.

8/7/44 to 8/9/44
 
Message from John:  "About time you came for Wake.  It will be bloody!  I'll lose my boys but it will be at cost.  My Torpedo Planes and Bombers thank you for 3 weeks of training though.  Am really curious to see how this works out.  I ran about 25,000 supply into the base so this should be interesting."

Reply:  None.

Wake Island:  The Allied invasion force arrived four hexes from Wake.  The CVE torpedo bombers hit the airfield, destroying six aircraft on the ground.  John had already pulled out most of his aircraft, and following that attack removed the rest.  I take this as a sign he isn't sending in the KB (if he were I think he'd load up Wake's airfield to supplement the attack).  Tomorrow the CVE torpedo bombers will hit the port facilities while the armada takes position 60 miles north of Wake.  The following day I'll send in minesweepers, a bombardment TF, and transports carrying supplies.  It will be several more days before I unload troops.

NoPac:  A probing 1:1 at Dutch Harbor came off at 4:1 and dropped forts from 9 to 8.  I'll rest my troops a day or two and then shock attack.  It looks like this base will fall easily.

SWPac:  Reinforcements have arrived at Noumea.  No sign of the KB in SWPac.

SEAC:  Allied armies continue to close on Saigon from north and west.  Jap resistance is fading at Malacca as the most recent attack came in at 15:1.  At Johore Bharu, a probing deliberate attack came off at 1:1 and didn't budge the 7 forts.  The Allies lost 4361/89/14 to 2996/88.  I'll need to finish off Malacca and bring those troops down to Johore to make real progress.

Comparison to my Game with Miller:   My game with Miller ended on this date, August 9, 1944, when Miller conceded after a long and difficult campaign.  At the time the Allies were up 20,000 points (74k to 54k), while in this game the Allies are up about 7,000 points.  That game was about opposite of this one.  Here the Allies have taken a northern and western route.  To the north, Iwo Jima, Sikhalin Island, and most of the Kuriles have fallen; and to the west the Allies have most of Malaya, Siam, and Indochina.  In my game with Miller I had none of those places, but had taken all of Timor, Flores, Celebes, Philippines, Formosa, and parts of Okinawa and southern Japan, none of which I hold in this game.  John was much more aggressive during the first half of the game, while Miller was much more aggressive in the second half.  He committed the KB in massed attacks that resulted in bloody losses to both sides, slowing Allied supply and momentum.  John thus far has refused to risk his carriers in a major engagement, and I wonder when he will do so.  He doesn't want to wait so long that he has no safe port so that his carriers are at risk of 4EB raids. John is also reluctant to commit his airforce - Miller had a number of raids where he lost 800 to 1,000 aircraft in a day (some of these were disasters, others were all-out battles where he sank bunches of CVEs or otherwise blunted an Allied move). I don't think John has ever lost as many as 300 aicraft in a single day. And yet, John's reluctance to commit his aircraft (except over Japan) has given the Allies complete air superiority in most areas. At this point in the game, I don't have sufficient data to know which of the two strategies is more effective in the long run. The points difference is attributable to John's experience level with the game and to his aggressive opening moves that took so much of SWPac and SoPac. I'm still recovering from being pinned back so far and getting such a late start on the Allied counter-offensive, but I think Allied momentum is building.

I should note an important difference between this game and my game with Miller.  In that game, by August 1944 the Japanese had "run out of steam, troops, and material" and the Allies could do pretty much whatever they wished to do - at least in the air and on the sea.  Miller still had plenty of troops and the going on the ground would have been slow.
 
In this game John still has a very viable position and fighting force.  I can by no means go wherever I want to, although I think the Allies will reach that point, pehaps even in 1944.  The KB and IJN combat ships are still powerful (with the notable exception of battleships), the airforce is large, the infantry is large, and perhaps most important the Japs still have alot of territory so that the Allies can't concentrate totally on one area.  There is strength in dispersion.
 
That's not to cast aspersion's on Miller's play, though.  John has a heck of alot more experience than Miller or I, and his his opening 18 months of play put the Allies in a huge hole that's slow climbing out of. 

8/10/44 and 8/11/44
 
Wake Island:  The invasion force arrived near Wake; on the 10th, CVE torpedo bombers hit the port; on the 11th, I accidentally unleashed ALL torpedo bombers, so 400 of them hit the airfield and port.  The bombardment force also hit on the 11th, doing 327/14.  Most importantly, there are no mines, no sign of the KB, and John pulled out all his aircraft.  Tomorrow, the bombardment TF (3 BBs) will hit again as well a second TF (with BB Richelieu) on the way from Eniwetok.  Transports will unload supplies. If all goes well, the troops begin landing the day after tomorrow.
 
NoPac:  The Allies took Dutch Harbor on the 11th.   On the 10th, 4EB from Iwo, China, and Sikhalin Island hit Fukuoka (25 resources and a hit or two on the Frank factory), Anshan in Manchuria (43 resources), and in Japan Aomori (30 manpower hits, airfield strike), and Ominato (airfield and port strike).  These bombers will rest a few days.  I've spent a good deal of time positioning reinforcement aircraft in the Aleutians and at Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  The Allies are on a heightened state of alert and I'm somewhat concerned that I may have to swap out bombers in favor of fighters on Iwo and Sikhalin Island in the near future.
 
CenPac:  Iwo and Eniwetok are quiet at the moment and fully mined (33,000+ each).
 
SWPac:  A probing 1:1 at Koumac dropped forts to four.  A NZ brigade is on the way to lend a hand.  No sign of a Jap response to these recent Allied moves in New Caledonia and at Milne Bay.
 
SEAC:  Two Allied armies ought to converge at Saigon in two or three days.  I'm not sure yet whether John stripped Saigon's defenses or whether it will be a tough nut like Johore Bharu/Singapore will be.
 
Rumblings:  With the Allied carriers momentarily tied up at Wake Island, this is a good time for John to strike.  Regular readers know that I have concerns about threats around the map, and those concerns are growing, although I still have not one scintilla of a clue as to the KB's whereabouts.   My sense of unease grew yesterday when John posted an AAR titled "Kaigun sails" (isn't the Kaigun the IJN?) with frequent posts following.  USS America replied to that post, and whenever he's interested in an upcoming fray he posts that little devil-munching-popcorn emoticon. I'd bet that's exactly what he posted.  Then alarms really started ringing when John sent an email late last night advising he would be around today and would like to get in three or four turns.  When he's engaged and flipping turns quickly, something's up.
 
So, I came to work today (yes, I play at work; don't ask) expecting that I'd have to really tie things down at Iwo, Malaya, and Sikhalin Island in preparation for a major attack, but as I looked at the map I didn't see any red flags (like airfields suddenly filled with Jap bombers, or Jap armadas suddenly detected somewhere where no armada should be).  Moreover, each of these bases is strongly defended so that I just don't think John can accomplish anything that would really affect the game's strategic posture - if he brought enough troops to really do something, it would take so long that the American carriers would have time to intervene (at least at Iwo or Sikhalin Island).
 
A strike by the KB or massed-LBA would score points but certainly wouldn't alter the strategic situation.  A massive invasion of Sikhalin Island would be worrisome, but the defenses are mighty.  An invasion of Iwo seems logical and it would be a blow if successful, but Iwo isn't that far from the American carriers, and its troops and forts and mines are sufficient to hold off the "Indians" for a long time.
 
There is some Allied bait in Malaya - I've had a strong RN combat TF with two BBs posted at Malacca for a couple of weeks.  That has to tempt John, but I've arranged alot of fighter CAP.  I'm essentially inviting a strike by the KB here, both because John would lose alot of aicraft and because it gets the KB off in a corner and out of the way for awhile.
 
But the most logical (and least damaging to the Allies) target is probably SWPac - New Guinea, New Caledonia, or something like that.  I have a few carriers there (more red meat dangled in front of John) and the Allies are still pretty weak in this theater.  Yet would he risk the KB getting cut off by the American carriers?  The Japanese sea lanes to SWPac are constricted now by Allied positions at Eniwetok/Ponape and Australia, and the American CVs at Wake could sit astride the lanes (say around Rabaul) and then John would essentially have to run a blockade.  I don't know if he would take that chance.
 
Bottom line:  Something's up, but I have no idea what or where.  I just think it'll be soon.
 
Points:  (A) 62,461 to (J) 55,453; Ratio:  1.12 to 1; Strategic Points:  9,932; Bases: (A) 249 to (J) 250.
 
 

You're probably right to be suspicious - but it sounds like regardless of where he tries to hit, you would be able to bleed him pretty badly. I don't know if there is really anywhere he can strike & not lose at least a boatload of pilots - if he happens to get you in a stand-up fight, you've got the carrier strength to really plow him under (and afford to lose a few CVEs in the process).

Stay focused, don't get distracted. I like the way your plan is shaping up - he's trying to get you to jump at the first sign of action, but stay on target. Right now, the KB is a bigger distraction by not going into action - keeps you guessing.

As soon as it appears, you'll know whatever else you have is safe & you can mobilize to take him down. I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens.

Do you mean like this, Dan?
 
I am just really enjoying this war.  Both of you write quite well, and write what you are thinking, and planning, in addition to what happened last turn.  Thanks for taking the time to include us all in your fun.  [8D]

8/12/44
 
USS America:  Yeah, that's the trademark I associate with your posts, when your sitting back to relax and enjoy some good AAR carnage.  I can just picture you inserting that in your post on John's AAR, though of course I don't know if you actually did.
 
Very quiet on the 12th - still no signs of a Jap armada or sudden masses of aircraft at forward bases. 
 
CenPac:  Two bombardment TFs hit Wake Island, the supply transports began unloading, but it appears my troops already on the island need at least one more day of re-supply before they can attack.  So no amphibious landings tomorrow.
 
NoPac:  B-29s from Shikuka ordered to hit Toyama's resources tomorrow, while the rest of the Sikhalin Island 4EB strike airfields at Ashigara, Ominato, and Aomori.  The small mixed TF (apparently an AV and an AK) were sighted south of the Kuriles today, their first appearance in a good ten days.  I don't know what John is doing - I think these are just decoys or bait.  I'm ignoring them as inconsequential.
 
SWPac:  Glenn-equipped subs north and east of Auckland.  This could be recon for a KB strike, or purely a ruse.  I don't have much at sea in this region, so I'm not very concerned.
 
SEAC:  The vise (I hope it's a vise and not something self-destructive) continues to close around Saigon. Allied troops should arrive en masse in two or three days.  I continue to tweak CAP over the RN combat TF at Malacca, wondering if John will take this bait, and if so doing the KB will arrive in such vast numbers as to overwhelm my defenses.

My opponent left me hanging.  He asked if we could turn around three or four turns today, but then only sent one with no explanation and no indication that he wouldn't do others.  So I've been on pins and needles all day without any resolution.  It'll have to wait until tomorrow.

8/13/44
 
My opponent didn't leave me hanging; I misread his email.  He was actually with family, so my apologies.  I'm on edge due to uncertainties about the KB and John's plans.
 
Wake Island:  The units on the island (1050 AV) are now fully supplied and ordered to shock attack to coincide with the landings by the reinforcement troops (three more Army divisions and another Marine division, plus more armor, artillery, and HQ).  Two BB TFs will bombard, and the CVE torpedo bombers will strike the port and airfield.  John appears to have reinforced the island with two mixed brigades, but I was surprised he didn't mine the island and bring in a CD or artillery regiment.
 
CenPac:  Quiet at Iwo Jima.
 
NoPac:  The Sikhalin Island 4EB hit Toyama (27 resource hits), Ashigara (airfield), Sapporo (airfield), and Ominato (airfield and port, with three AKs and an AR hit).  No Jap aircraft buildup at the northern fields.  That weird little Jap transport TF is just south of the Kuriles, way out hostile territory for it, continuing to serve as bait or probing the Allied defenses.
 
SWPac:  Quiet.  Milne Bay is about 75% to level one airfield and port.
 
SEAC:  The Allies took Bien Hoa and both Allied armies will converge at Saigon beginning tomorrow. A few isolated Jap units are cut-off at interior bases, and two of these are what I think should be weak brigades.  I'll have to deal with them eventually, but first I want to find out how strong Saigon is.  The daily deliberate attack at Malacca came in at 19:1, and the adjusted AV of the Japanese defenses is down to 75, so in another week or so the Jap units should begin to surrender or vanish.  Then it's on to Johore Bharu.
 
China:  Quiet.
 
Points:  (A) 62,680 to (J) 55,506; Ratio:  1:12 to 1; Strategic Points:  10,068; Bases:  (A) 250 to (J) 249.
 

8/14/44
 
Wake Island:  Following additional bombardments by two BB TFs, the Wake reinforcements began landing on the 14th.  Despite absence of mines and CD units, several days of bombings and bomardments, full prep, combat-loaded on mostly LSTs and LCIs, and presence of an amphibious force HQ, the going was fairly rough.  The attack came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 9 to 8, and cost the Japs 6k casualties to 5k for the Allies.  Landings will continue tomorrow, so I'll try one more shock attack before resting my troops awhile.  It looks like the Allies have enough to do the job this time, and there's no sign of the KB interfering.
 
CenPac:  Things remain quiet at Iwo Jima and Eniwetok.  Iwo PBY Liberators escorted by P-38s took a jab at CVL Ibuki at Nagasaki, but missed.  That's the first Jap carrier I've seen in weeks.  In his email, John referred to it as his "new toy," so I assume it's a just arrived reinforcement.  I wonder if it is heading somewhere to join the KB, or if the KB is coming this way (or is already here?).  I have no clue.
 
NoPac:  Weird little Jap transport TFs all over the western Kuriles.  Some fairly large sorties by Allied Hellcats and TBMs from Shikuka only scored one hit against one AK.  I really don't know what John is doing.  Perhaps a distraction, perhaps feeling out defenses in preparation for landings in the Kuriles, or perhaps something bigger.  Again, I'm pretty clueless.
 
SEAC:  Allied troops are on both sides of Saigon, but are moving slowly.  It may take another day or two for the first to arrive at Saigon.  Down at Malacca, the isolated Jap defender's AV fell to 65, so I think these units are on schedule to begin "disappaering" in about a week.