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I'm done with it as well. None of this is realistic given what we know of actual Japanese capabilities and how both branches of their military acted at cross purposes.

There is just no way the IJA was going to waste troops/aircraft/merchant ships invading an island they couldn't possibly supply, much less hold.

There was just no way they were going to leave the Phillipines alone to take that island. Unlike the PI, Maui didn't sit astride the routes from the SRA to Japan.

There is no way that the IJN was going to waste Bettys and their crews on a flight to an island that they have no idea if they can land on it, let alone refuel and rearm. (There was talk of launching the carrier planes on a one way mission. They were suppose to ditch and get picked up by subs. Genda threw ice cold water on that one.)

Probably no way they would ever even consider capturing Midway, or Kiska, or Guadalcanal for the same reasons.

sPzAbt653 wrote: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:53 pm Probably no way they would ever even consider capturing Midway, or Kiska, or Guadalcanal for the same reasons.

Certainly not in December 1941. Maybe later once the Southern Resource Area (and oil supply) was secured.

Torplexed wrote: Sat Dec 17, 2022 6:20 pm

sPzAbt653 wrote: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:53 pm Probably no way they would ever even consider capturing Midway, or Kiska, or Guadalcanal for the same reasons.

Certainly not in December 1941. Maybe later once the Southern Resource Area (and oil supply) was secured.

Actually capturing Midway on the 7th of December might actually have been a good idea. That could allow Japanese flying boats another place to fly from and cause any Allied naval ships to avoid the area unless they were attacking Midway, especially if Bettys and/or Nells were based there.

I can't say whether the capture of Midway before the end of 1941 would have made Yamamoto's Xmas list but the atoll certainly was already of interest to him immediately after PH.

On Dec 9th he ordered KB to attack Midway before returning to Japan. It's uncertain whether he hoped the attack might also lure in any nearby USN CVs. Dec 9th was also the day Yamamoto ordered planning to begin for a possible invasion of Hawaii in 1942.

In the end the bad weather that was affecting the North Pacific immediately after PH delayed any chance of an attack on Midway and the order was cancelled on the 15th Dec in favor of an attack against Wake Island using part of KB while the rest returned to Japan to prepare for their part in the invasion of Rabaul.

I know the Midway Destruction Force bombarded the atoll. I know that two carriers split off to help take Wake. But I didn't know the KB also attacked Midway.

KB were ordered to attack Midway but they couldn't because of the bad weather.

Buckrock wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:11 pm KB were ordered to attack Midway but they couldn't because of the bad weather.

I learned something new, thanks

But under the "plan", they could of just stooged around until the weather cleared?

Assuming they could also refuel at sea in that weather, it's possible they could have waited a bit longer but they were also on a hard deadline to support the scheduled Rabaul invasion, which required them to replenish in Japan and then reach Truk by mid-Jan. It didn't leave a lot of spare time.

Aurelian wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:08 pm I know the Midway Destruction Force bombarded the atoll. I know that two carriers split off to help take Wake. But I didn't know the KB also attacked Midway.

That is when the Ushio was damaged by the defenses at Midway. I mentioned it before but if a (civilian) transport would have shown up with a request for assistance because their fresh water was having a problem, maybe a shore party or two could have come ashore along with a barge or two in order to collect fresh water. Instead, an initial landing force is coming ashore. This could have been timed to occur at the beginning of the attack when the message of "Tora Tora Tora (Japanese: トラ・トラ・トラ！)" was sent.

Once the invasion actually starts, the rest of the forces as well as supporting combat ships sail to Midway. These forces need not be too far away.

Buckrock wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:15 pm Assuming they could also refuel at sea in that weather, it's possible they could have waited a bit longer but they were also on a hard deadline to support the scheduled Rabaul invasion, which required them to replenish in Japan and then reach Truk by mid-Jan. It didn't leave a lot of spare time.

With a little more foresight, the supplies, equipment, fuel, and spare aircraft could have been sent ahead to Truk. In that case, the KB might have discovered the Enterprise and the Lexington while they were separated and at sea.

Torplexed wrote: Sat Dec 17, 2022 6:20 pm

sPzAbt653 wrote: Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:53 pm Probably no way they would ever even consider capturing Midway, or Kiska, or Guadalcanal for the same reasons.

Certainly not in December 1941. Maybe later once the Southern Resource Area (and oil supply) was secured.

But isn't the point of this discussion 'What could they have done', not 'What they didn't do'? Certainly they could have done things differently? 'What If's' are relevant, even if at times they are considered far-fetched they still provide an exercise in Strategy, Operations or Tactics, don't they? Our hobby is based on a Roll of the Dice!