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I claim to know John pretty well. I offer as exhibit A excerpts from a lighthearted exchange of emails yesterday:

John sent a turn Saturday morning with this note: "Have the day off so I can do another during the day without issue."

Dan's reply: "'Can do another....without issue' generally means no turn. '...can do another...without issue' usually means 'Things will come up and you won't hear from me again until Sunday afternoon sometime.' After playing together so long, we know each other pretty well.  'Without issue' almost 100% of the time turns into long, long gaps without word as to what's going on.

John: "Now--Now.  My exact quote was “'I can do another during the day without issue.'”

I sent the turn to him around 2 p.m. my time, noon his time.

He sent the turn back early Sunday morning.

I don't know why, but whenever he uses the phrase "without issue," there is always an issue.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
It doesn't seem like John has all that much behind Burma. No defense in depth because he's concentrated on trying to smash the Celebes and whatnot.

I think John has 20k in the hex between Moulmein and Pegu and 25k at Moulmein. A solid part of this army was beaten up in the Burma campaign. He has lots of other troops in nearby bases and jungle hexes. I don't have a good feel on whether there are any good units out there yet. I'm feeling around now.

The Allied army is nearly 3k AV. Of that, I bet at least 1k to 1.5k is 100% prepped for Moulmein. There are decent tank units and some decent (though not top-notch) infantry. Most of my troops have some accumulated disablements, but experience is pretty good as is morale.

I'll probably try to "force" Moulmein, using a big stack and lots of bombers. One reason is to make the sea lane to Rangoon that much more open. If I take Moulmein, my bombers can then concentrate on Tavoy and perhaps Port Blair.

Love that.

"I don't know why, but whenever he uses the phrase "without issue," there is always an issue."

Whenever I hear the phrase "With all due respect..." I'm about to be disrespected.

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Love that.

"I don't know why, but whenever he uses the phrase "without issue," there is always an issue."

Whenever I hear the phrase "With all due respect..." I'm about to be disrespected.

"It's not you, it's . . ."

Waiting to hear about Vinh...great defensive terrain if you take it-- don't lose it.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


Waiting to hear about Vinh...great defensive terrain if you take it-- don't lose it.

Even just taking it via paratroop attack will destroy any forts that John built, so he'd have to start all over.

Santa Maria! The amount of resources the Allies have in mid 1944 is just awesome. I've never made it even to 1944 in a campaign game.

Miri will be a great addition. Nice to have a filling station in theater. And Vinh being wide open is mind boggling.

I've always liked the phrase "to be honest." What, you normally are not honest, except this one time?

Cheers,
CC

Be careful..you might run into the Viet Vinh

5/16/44

Burma: 18th IJA Division eradicated and para-assault of Vinh successful. A busy day. See map for details.

Fun House: A busy day here, too, as the Allies take Beaufort (near Brunei) and Sandakan (Borneo's north tip), knock forts to 0 at Tacloban, which will fall soon, and knock forts from 3 to 2 at Puerto Princesa, which John is reinforcing by air.

For some simple logistical reason, Death Star and the Herd declined to follow the lead ASW TF and a combat TF that moved to the vicinity of Sandakan. This leaves DS and the Herd out in the open, set to follow a TF that's four or five hexes away. That's not good - I want DS and the Herd following ASW closely. So I've had to reset about 38 TFs to follow a new TF. A logistical, nightmarish click-fest that was no fun.

But, really, it was a good day. See map to follow.

5/16/44

[/b]Fun House: See map for busy details.

I look at the picture of Vietnam and cringe.[X(]

In this mod, does refineries generate supply?

John included this thought in an email on Sunday: "My basic problem MISTER ROPER is that I cannot wrap my mind around throwing everything away in a hopeless fight.  It goes at complete odds with my basic playing philosophy.  Have to change that but truly don’t want to.  Am severely conflicted…"

He's a navy guy second, a carrier guy first. Backed into a corner and with a materially attritioned navy, he's going through the stages of grief. He's made it past denial and anger and now he's at the stage of bargaining/reasoning. When he reaches the next stage - acceptance - he'll commit KB.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I look at the picture of Vietnam and cringe.[X(]

In this mod, does refineries generate supply?

I don't believe so. I think that was eliminated long ago to prevent the Fortress Palembang-type ploys.

He hasn't played enough games late enough, as throwing things away becomes very easy. [:D]

PS: Especially if you throw them away at a good VP ratio.

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Santa Maria! The amount of resources the Allies have in mid 1944 is just awesome. I've never made it even to 1944 in a campaign game.

You're right. It's an awesome difference between mid '42 and late '43 and between late '43 and mid '44. But the change is gradual, so you don't simply wake up one day and say, "Voila! Cornucopia! Utopia!"

As crsutton preaches to his flock every time they assemble in the pew of the First Church of Birkenstock, the driving difference in the game for the Allies is carriers. If you have them in respectable numbers, you're going to be in good shape in '44. If you've frittered them away, your task is much more methodical, slower, and predictable.

One oddity about Allied productions: A tremendous percentage of the APAs arrive (or convert from xAPs) in '42 and '43. The numbers slow to a trickle in late '43 and well into '44. So protecting them is vital. Don't think that the 40 or so that you have in Sept. '43 can be quickly replaced.

At some point the Allies have to make the next big leap. After that leap the HI will be threatened by B-29's AND B-24's. That leap, at least for a few turns, will be entirely protected by Naval air power. While the Allies have superior forces, they are not vastly superior. That is the point to hit the Allies with Japans best shot. There is always some chance, weather, coordination and die roles will smile favorably on one player of the other. I don't see any other logical way for Japan to precede.

Dan, you mentioned closing the enemy airfields at Port Blair and Tavoy, in order to allow convoys to move to Rangoon more or less safely. I'm pretty sure you'll need to wipe out the big field at Bangkok as well.

I think Rangoon CAP (set to range 2 or 3) would be sufficient to ward off anything coming from Bangkok. But Tavoy and Port Blair are off on a tangent, where they can hit ships on their way in, where LRCAP would be problematic and requires constant adjustments.

Unless and until John gets a strong new fighter, I think Allied 4EB can handle anything within normal range, pounding them into submission no matter how many Franks and Georges John puts up. So I don't think John can hold Moulmein. And, when Moulmein airfield is fully functional, I doubt he can defend Bangkok.

The equation is changing now - distance and supply considerations will make it more challenging for me to employ daily waves of 2EB and 4EB. John is probably realizing this now...and kicking himself for not conducting a more orderly phased withdrawal in Burma commencing months ago.

It seems like Tarakan is ripe for a sweep by some Fletchers or maybe some CAs with DDs. Do you see SCTFs in the harbor as well?

While Lowpe might be cringing looking at the picture of Vietnam, I am curled up in a ball in the corner whimpering. Taking Vinh by air drop will really cause problems.

Wa