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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:07 pm
by Encircled
Are you expecting another rant about the power of 4Es in the ground attack role?
I can't believe he's tried to hold there without an AA.
I can't believe he's tried to hold there full stop to be honest.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:25 pm
by paullus99
It is puzzling....John just doesn't seem to understand the power of massed allied air at this point in the game.
The lack of AA is just appalling. That's just criminal, not to mention that he seems to have far fewer fighters than he should, in the area, if he was serious about trying to hold anything.
His troops are also highly unlikely to hold against massed allied infantry and tanks, as well, given the disparity in quality.
I am of the opinion that he really just doesn't know how the play the endgame, especially without an overwhelming navy to use as a club or hammer.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:29 pm
by Lecivius
I agree, John has not played a game to end game. But this is a learning curve for him. "Appalling" and "Criminal" are pretty hard words [:'(] Let's see how this plays out. We all had to learn the hard way [;)]
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:02 pm
by paullus99
True - those are harsh words, but anyone who has had experience on the receiving end of the Allied Juggernaut in the end game realizes that defense, fighters, forts, and plenty of AA is mandatory to make a true stand.
At this point, John has suffered a series of tactical, operational, and strategic defeats which are really going to hamper his ability to protect the HI over the coming months of game play.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:15 pm
by aleajactaest10044
Good show, its nice to see real life results occurring on the ground at this stage of the war.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:25 pm
by Canoerebel
One of the original objectives of the Luzon campaign was to draw a Japanese army, to beat it up. This was discussed eight or nine months ago in the AAR. At the time, I knew the Japanese army had barely been touched in the game. A time would come when I'd have to address that head on. At the time, I didn't figure John would get so messed up in Burma. That was just a bonus. But I did think Luzon would be the place to take on his army. That's one reason I estimated the campaign would take from April until September '44.
There's a chance now that the Allies can blast through Manila, though probably less than 50%. John has the advantage of good terrain, where my bombers will be considerably less effective. He can also bring in some infantry units that haven't been mauled - probably one division and several mixed brigades. And he'll almost surely ship in reinforcements before I can impose a blockade (that's at least two weeks away). I probably have one advantage - preparation percentage for my army.
I'm going to give the taking of Manila the old college try, but I think John will stabilize for just awhile. And that's not such a bad thing - sucking in additional infantry while the Allies build new airfields close to Manila and prepare to receive all kinds of replacements and reinforcements coming in from the Pacific.
Luzon is a bad place for John at the moment. It could get much worse before the month is over.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:47 pm
by witpqs
I figure John is just not used to the power of Allied air at this stage of the game. He might also be placing defenses farther back with those assets so they are ready when you get there.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:19 pm
by Canoerebel
I do think he focused on preparing the Home Islands for B29s. Multiple SigInt reports of hundreds (sometimes 500) aircraft at HI bases. He probably has lots of AA there too. He was prepared for a strategic bombing campaign but I've deferred to tactical bombing. That'll evolve over time, but right now I prefer not to use the Superforts at extended range.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:46 pm
by witpqs
A wise move. If he's got better than historical pilots at this point (and he certainly does!) then the superforts would take much greater than historical losses.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:23 pm
by Canoerebel
6/11/44
See map for details.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:29 pm
by HansBolter
I swear there is some kind of movement glitch associated with the jungle rough terrain adjacent to Manila.
I have had troops route through it coming and going form Manila and didn't realize it until they had invested several turns of movement into that route.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:30 pm
by Canoerebel
For those relatively new to the game, what's happened over the past three months is an interesting study in how two sides can see things very differently.
In March '44, John wiped out Allied resistance on Celebes. On that turn, he sent me an email: "That turn ROCKED." That (as you can probably tell) chapped my rear-end.
But moreso, I was nearly certain that John was shortsighted, focusing on Celebes while failing to attend properly to defenses on Luzon and vicinity. Based upon SigInt, base building, sub detection levels, and the give and take of things, I thought the Allies were going to take advantage of John's tunnel vision...and that Luzon would prove that Celebes was actually a strategic loss for him.
Still more cards to be played - fate still to swing this way or that - but I feel vindicated in my assessment. John's crowing about Celebes was indeed symptomatic of a larger failure to appreciate his situation.
But I won't send him an email: "This turn ROCKED!"
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:22 pm
by Canoerebel
Mini KB, combat TF, and some other good ships on the move in the DEI.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:28 pm
by paullus99
It looks like he's protecting his oil convoys.....
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:02 pm
by Canoerebel
Lots of SigInt nuggets today.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:12 pm
by Grfin Zeppelin
It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:40 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin
It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.
Spitballs, right?
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:47 am
by Grfin Zeppelin
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin
It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.
Spitballs, right?
Yeah those machinecanons wont do anything in Hamamatsu.They could have done something to Canoes divebombers in the PI tho.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:24 am
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
One of the original objectives of the Luzon campaign was to draw a Japanese army, to beat it up. This was discussed eight or nine months ago in the AAR. At the time, I knew the Japanese army had barely been touched in the game. A time would come when I'd have to address that head on. At the time, I didn't figure John would get so messed up in Burma. That was just a bonus. But I did think Luzon would be the place to take on his army. That's one reason I estimated the campaign would take from April until September '44.
There's a chance now that the Allies can blast through Manila, though probably less than 50%. John has the advantage of good terrain, where my bombers will be considerably less effective. He can also bring in some infantry units that haven't been mauled - probably one division and several mixed brigades. And he'll almost surely ship in reinforcements before I can impose a blockade (that's at least two weeks away). I probably have one advantage - preparation percentage for my army.
I'm going to give the taking of Manila the old college try, but I think John will stabilize for just awhile. And that's not such a bad thing - sucking in additional infantry while the Allies build new airfields close to Manila and prepare to receive all kinds of replacements and reinforcements coming in from the Pacific.
Luzon is a bad place for John at the moment. It could get much worse before the month is over.
The key to getting Manila is blasting his fields into submission and then having free reign on the troops. Even though it's better terrain, hits on the troops and fields will take supply, add fatigue and disruption and if your forces get a few days rest before the battle, the difference will be dramatic.
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:25 am
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin
It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.
Spitballs, right?
Yeah those machinecanons wont do anything in Hamamatsu.They could have done something to Canoes divebombers in the PI tho.
They're good on Okinawa and PI, some of the islands. Or just disband them to save supply. [:)]