Shattered Vow

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: veji1

why on earth would he do that ?? you don't attack an even medium Capped port with the KB post mid42, except if there is a really really valid reason for that (wounded CVs in there...). that's a sure way of just slaughtering your pilots... don't understand it.

Under the last patch, pilots can be retrained in about three-four months. Not quite to the pre-war KB complement level, but pre-war pilots should be mostly gone anyway by this point. But a ship sunk is a ship sunk. Probably he decided that it's better to spend these planes now, when they actually can inflict significant damage, than wait until Allies are perfectly ready for battle.

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

I think this AAR and Q-Ball's AAR show that the Japanese must make a priority to defend the DEI. A sturdy defense in the CentPac and SoPac is obviously necessary but the Japanese can afford to trade land for time in those areas. They cannot do this in the DEI. THey have to protect this region or its game over. If I ever play the Japanese side I think I would follow the RL model of ignoring CHina. I would pull every unit I could out of there and Manchuko and send them south. A stout defense of Timor and points east is critical for Japanese long term survival

I believe, that you need to consolidate your positions in China first, to do that safely. The initial Japanese holdings are vulnerable, if Chinese are allowed to do as they please.

Also, Japanese need to create a buffer for DEI, by taking Northern, and, probably, Western Australia. Static defense is doomed to fail, there are too many available bases, so Allies always can get a foothold.

[Swenslim]

I think Cutterfish simply positioned his troops very bad and acted very passivly. DEI is much more easy to defend than Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/43 to 8/2/43
 
CenPac:  I am most fortunate that the three damaged CVEs made it to Tabiteaeu safely.  Barring submarines, they should be safe now.  They go to Pearl Harbor to repair.  The landings at Abemama continued - this base is adjacent to Tarawa and can be built to the same size.  I pulled all ships back from Makin.  I don't know if I have enough troops there to take the island once they recover disruption. 
 
Carriers:  All American carrier reinforcements are on the board except CV Constitution, which should arrive at Tahiti in about a week.  The others are nearing Tahiti, will refuel, and will move on to Auckland.
 
SWPac:  At the moment the main effort is to move supply from Darwin to the forward bases - Saumlaki takes alot.  As soon as the carriers and additional transports arrive the Allies will move on Boela.
 
Burma:  The Allies will bomb Rangoon again - Liberators without escorts this time (my escorts are getting shredded).
 
China:  Miller has carrier through with his self-imposed cease fire.  I vacated Kweilin, he had a unit there, but he did take the base.  He may have withdrawn.  China is borked in our game (due to early-on strategic bombing and the radical results of massed artillery), but I have told Miller repeatedly that I don't want a ceasefire.  I intend to go on the offensive here someday.  It may be 1945, but the day will come.

[Canoerebel]

8/3/43 to 8/6/43
 
As the Allies prepare for a series of big pushes in the DEI, the game is reaching a tipping point.  The Allies have suffered massive losses of transports (subs and the expensive invasion of the Kuriles beging the two big culprits).  In order for the Allied DEI offensive to work, transport losses must be minimal.  At the same time, the Allied carriers will be in the confined waters of the DEI where weird things (Cuttlefish vs. Q-Ball situation) or dreaded things (lethal Japanese subs) can happen.  I don't believe the Japanese can stop the short-term Allied thrusts against Boela and Sorong, but if they really take a toll on Allied transports and carriers, Allied momentum will be halted when it needs to be ramping up.
 
Transports:  Many of the transports needed in the DEI are currently nearing Pago Pago, or are already moving from Pago Pago to Brisbane.  It will take them a few weeks to reach Darwin.  As soon as they do so and can combat load troops, the moves will begin.
 
Carriers:  Current whereabouts of Allied carriers:  Most American fleet CVs are at Wellington or nearing Tahiti.  The CVLs and CVEs are mostly between Pago Pago and Auckland.  All of these will rendezvous at Auckland.  The three CVEs damaged near Marcus will make Christmas Island in less than a week.  From there they head to Pearl for repairs.  I am not counting on surprise when the carriers move to Darwin - both routes are under Japanese patrol surveillance and there's nothing I can do to prevent it given the large number of Japanese-held bases in the area.
 
Mock Invaision:  Miller has undoubtedly been anticipating a major move in the DEI - Timor and Ambon are the most logical targets.  I am pondering a massive mock invasion as soon as my carriers arrive.  He'll be expecting something so the "trip-wire effect" ought to be pretty easy to trigger.  With so many Allied airbases in the area (most of these are now size five to seven) I should be able to win the air battles.  The Allies will also have many reinforcing BBs on the scene:  Maryland, California, Colorado, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Indiana, North Carolina, Prince of Wales, and Royal Sovereign.  Some of these will serve as carrier escorts, but the Allies should be able to field two or three stout combat TFs.
 
Itinerary:  The Allies will quickly move on Boela and Sorong.  If those operations go well - they should, given their proximity to Allied LBA - the Alllies will then move quickly to Morotai.  While these operations are going on, I also expect the Allies to move east along New Guinea's north coast, picking up Mankowari (lightly garrisoned), Biak (an Allied controlled dot hex that can be built to 4 port/8 airfield, and probably Hollandia.  Unless things go awry, the Allies should have Boela, Sorong, and Morotai by the end of summer.  From there the Allies will spread out and take nearby bases (like Ternate) and then prepare for the leap across to Manado, Talaud Island, and other bases.  If things haven't gone terribly awry, the Allies should be in a position to look at Borneo and the southern Philippines by the end of the year.  Meanwhile, these moves should render some base strategically unimportant (Port Moresby, Ambon, Namlea, and perhaps even Timor).  The Allies should be able to pick these off with reserve and rear-guard units. 
 
Burma:  Allied B-24s are far more effective at flying sweep than are Allied fighters.  American B-24Ds from Akyab and RAF Liberator IIs from Chittagong occasionally fly missions against Rangoon and consistently inflict more damage against CAP than they suffer.  More than 100 fighters are based at Prome, including a high-experience American outfit that just obtained P-47s.  I'll continue working sweep and bombing missions to try to eventually win control of the air over Rangoon.  That may take months, but once it happens Rangoon's fate is sealed.

[Canoerebel]

8/7/43 and 8/8/43
 
DEI:  Planning continues for the series of amphibious landings to take place in quick succession in the eastern DEI - as soon as the transports and carriers arrive:

Carriers:  The CV and CVL (and CVE if I commit them to the DEI, which I think is unlikely due to the sub threat) shall all arrive at Auckland within the week - except for the three damaged CVEs (these are nearing Christmas Island and are heading for Pearl Harbor).

Transports:  My estimate of total lift capacity to sustain the offensive in the DEI over the next few months - 101 AK; 10 APA; 42 AP, and 35 LST/LCI.  That's probably enough barring heavy losses; but I have a history of heavy losses in the game.  I'll have to be more careful in protecting transports.  I do have some reserves - primarily transports heading to Oz from India.

Boela:  The first objective is Boela, which is garrisoned by three units 6k strong.  This base will be quite close to Allied LBA from Babo and Kaimana, so I feel fairly secure.  I think the force committed is overwhelming: 14, 16 and 23 UK Brigades; 32 US Infantry Division; 12 Marine CD; 134 Field Artillery; 197 Cst AA; 1st Sea Bee; 7th RAA Cst AA; 857 EAB; 9th RAAF HQ; 170 Wing = 750 AV.

Sorong:  Sorong is a bit further but LBA from Babo (and Boela) can provide CAP.  Garrison is four units 11k strong.  Force committed:  41 Infantry Division; 2 and 29 Oz Brigades; 20 and 15 Marine CD; 21 Heavy AA; 208 Cst AA; 2nd Med. Arty; 3rd Marine Raiders; 2nd RAA Jungle Force; 165 Wing = 680 AV.  I will bump this up if Miller continues to reinforce Sorong.

Morotai:  The troops prepping for Morotai are currently on transports heading to Oz.  This will include at least four Marine regiments and one Army Division.  The move on Morotai will occur as soon as the Allies have Sorong and Boela.

Timetable:  The Allies should be ready to move on Boela in three weeks; the move on Sorong will occur as soon as the transports can return to Darwin and load the Sorong troops.  Barring a carrier battle defeat or excessive loss of transports, I expect the Allies to keep up the pressure indefinately.  Troops are prepping for distant points like Manado, Ternate, Talaud Island, Samarinda, Tarakan, and Cotabato.

Burma:  The Liberator/sweep combo against Rangoon went the way of the Allies for the first time - IE, the Japanese suffered higher losses.  The high-experience P-47 squadron was the very last to go in, so most of the enemy aircraft had already landed.  But the Thunderbolts claimed three victims and didn't suffer any losses.  Prome is a level seven airbase heading to level nine.  Base forces already on site can handle 375 aircraft.  Things are going to get awfully uncomfortable for the Japanese in Rangoon when Prome hits level nine.

SoPac:  Engineeres are slowly working on Abemama.  The troops that landed at Marcus are recovering disruption and effectively bombarding.  I don't know whether Miller intends to reinforce.  I'll probably try a shock attack in a week or ten days.  The airfield at Tabiteaeu is level three on the way to six.

[Canoerebel]

Sharp naval engagement in the DEI where an Allied CA/CL force protecting transports was attacked by a raiding Japanese CA/CL force.  I haven't gotten the file yet to see how badly my ships are hurt, how many might've sunk, and whether my highly competent and valued commander (Mitscher) is still okay.  Who do you think is the victor based upon this:
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Saumlaki at 78,117, Range 23,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CA Takao, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires
      CA Atago, Shell hits 1
      CA Chokai, Shell hits 42,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Aoba, Shell hits 1
      CA Kako, Shell hits 3
      CL Sendai, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      CL Naka
      CL Jintsu
      DD Shimakaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Yugumo, Shell hits 30, and is sunk
      DD Akigumo, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Makigumo, Shell hits 4,  on fire
      DD Naganami, Shell hits 5,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Tamanami, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Kiyonami, Shell hits 4,  on fire
 
Allied Ships
      CA Houston, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Vincennes, Shell hits 3
      CA Exeter, Shell hits 8,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CL Perth, Shell hits 1
      CLAA Juneau, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CL Concord, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires
      CL St. Louis, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Bailey, Shell hits 1
      DD Hughes
      DD O'Brien, Shell hits 2
      DD Craven
      DD Gridley, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Maury, Shell hits 1
      DD Lang
      DD Dunlap, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
      DD Fanning, Shell hits 5,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Balch, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 1
      DD Stewart, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Isaac Sweers, Shell hits 5,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Electra, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Express, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Napier, Shell hits 1,  on fire

[witpqs]

Tactical: Japan.

Strategic: Did they protect the transports?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, they protected the transports.
 
At first blush I'm satisfied with the outcome.  The Japanese outweighed the Allies in number of CAs and I bet Miller had a top commander.  Any time the Allies can attrit the Japanese CA/CL/DD force on fairly equitable terms is good.
 
The problem is that I have just one force left in the DEI - a stout one of 23 ships led by BB Royal Sovereign.  Big reinforcements are on the way, but for at least another week or ten days the Allies are going to have to stick close to Darwin and hope nothing bad happens.
 
Thanks for the input witpqs.

[Canoerebel]

The damage to the Allied TF was great than I expected.  CA Exeter, CLAA Juneau, and two DDs went down.  Barring sub attack or other calamity, the only other ship threatened with sinking is DD Isaac Sweers. Mitscher survived, thank goodness.

The loss board shows three Japanese DDs went down, but FOW is extreme in the case of ship losses.

So, this appears to be a Japanese tactical victory, though Miller seems to think it was an Allied victory. 

[Galahad78]

I would dare say that CA Chokai and perhaps Takao are also in danger, if not already sunk. What about your own CA Houston and CL St. Louis?

The transports were forced to leave the beachhead?

[Canoerebel]

The Allied TF was protecting transports carrying supplies to key island bases west of Darwin.
 
Update:  An Allied sub put a TT into CA Takao as she was heading for Kendari.  That's the good news - the bad news is that Takao had to be making decent time to make it that far that quickly.
 
Houston and St. Louis will be fine barring Japanese subs.  They should make Darwin tomorrow or the day after.

[Canoerebel]

8/9/43 to 8/12/43
 
DEI:  The vicious clash between combat TFs at Saumlaki is noted above.  The Allies will try a 4EB strike on Kendari's port tomorrow hoping to hit a few cripples.  I'm not very optmistic as this is at long range and Kendari usually puts up a CAP of well over 100 fighters.  Meanwhile, I've recalled all but one transport TF to Darwin as I want to stick close to Darwin for awhile.  The Royal Sovereign TF is the main protection for Darwin at the moment, but a second group including CAs Astoria and Chicago just arrived.

Operation Fort Donelson (the invasions of Boela and Sorong):  The various transport TFs are nearing Noumea.  From there they head to Townsville (to refuel) and then on to Darwin.  ETA at Darwin is perhaps 10-12 days.  Allow a few more to combat load.  Then D-Day is approximately three weeks away.  About fifteen carriers of all types are parked at Auckland.  CVs Constitution and Bunker Hill and CVL Belleau Wood will arrive in no more than four days.  CV Constellation leaves Tahiti tonight.  All CVs should be present at Auckland in a week or less.  A stout combat TF with three BBs (two fast, one slow) is west of Noumea, making for Townsville to refuel, and then to Darwin.

Miller's Perspective:  Miller is obviously very worried about the Allied build up in the DEI.  His recent "Darwin" post on the forum, the clash between combat TFs yesterday, and his big carrier raid a few weeks ago make this clear.  I don't have a good feel for what he might do next - is he desperate enough to continue the attacks, or will he wait until the Allies move on one of his vital bases?  I need to give this some thought.  I think I can trigger a violent reaction from Miller if I move on one of his key bases (Lautem or Ambon are the most obvious targets).  So, should I try to establish an ambush, or should I avoid the "clever" in favor of the massed and coordinated move on the real targets (Boela and Sorong)?  Something to chew over.

Damaged CVEs:  The three CVEs damaged during the Makin invasion arrived at Christmas Island and sail for Pearl tonight.

Makin:  The question is whether to reinforce the invasion or not.  I have 100 AV in good shape (but low prep) ashore.  They artillery is doing a good job of hitting the Japanese garrison, which consists of two Naval Guard units of unknown quality and condition.  I have three picket AKs west and northwest of Makin sitting quiety - no sign of Japanese CVs in the area.  I might detail one CVE with 28 F4Fs and a transport convoy to carry a regiment to Makin to reinforce the attack.  Before doing so the guys on the island will try one attack to see if they can do the job.  Tabiteaeu is a level three airfield and can support the operation.  Abemama's progress is agonozingly slow.  It will be weeks before she has a level one airfield.

[ny59giants]

Makin - Could you use a Fast Transport TF to good use here one way or another??

[Canoerebel]

That's a good idea, but I've lost most of my APDs in the game (everyone of them because they stayed in a base hex during the day rather than retiring after a night run as they are supposed to do).

Anyhow, my FT capacity is limited, to say the least.

I've noticed, though, that the AV of the Japanese garrison on Marcus is dropping.  I'll continue to monitor this.  If Miller is evacuating the troops or if the Allied bombardments are that effective it may be possibly to take the island without additional troops.

[Canoerebel]

8/13/43 to 8/18/43
 
Japanese Perspective:  Miller sees and frets about the massive build-up in the eastern DEI; I believe he reads my posts regarding Darwin and the DEI; yet the Allies haven't really moved in a big way yet even though the '43 carrier reinforcements have arrived.  Miller must be wondering if all the DEI "noise" is really a diversion.  Is he wondering whether the big Allied push will come against Malaya, Sumatra, Iwo Jima, or possibly even the Kuriles? He's got to be considering the possibility.  To "feed his paranoia" I gave this post a title.
 
Operation Griswoldville:  This was actually the Allied move against Tarawa.  Against all odds, and despite my efforts to mess everything up, this Operation has turned into a rather unlikely success.  Makin Island fell to the Allies on the 18th.  That means at very little cost the Allies took islands on either side of Tarawa that can be built as big or bigger than Tarawa.  This should neutralize Tarawa as a sub base, which will give the Allied LOC in the southeastern Pacific a bit more of a buffer.  Since it turns out I don't have to commit a reserve force to Makin, this operation didn't end up slowing down the moves in the DEI - my carriers are just now arriving at Auckland and nothing happens without them anyway.  The three damaged CVEs just made Pearl Harbor.  So the Allies ended up making a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
 
CenPac:  With Makin, Abemama, and Tabiteaeu in Allied hands, the Allies will focus on building these bases.  I have troops prepping for Marcus and Wake, but those operations will take place no earlier than 1944.  I do have three "picket" ships well to the west and northwest of Makin and have some thoughts about how I might use them.....
 
DEI:  I need to send some reinforcements to Babo - mainly to free up the transports their occupying.  To create some confusion on the part of the Japanese, I may send a mock invasion force forward in the DEI, then pull them back at the same time a "TF" comprised of the three "picket" ships shows up somewhere odd - like Enewitok.  Then I'll send the "real" transports into Babo.  As for the Operation Fort Donelson (invasion of Boela) troops and ships, many of the transport convoys are nearing Townsville.  The carriers and combat ships should leave Auckland in no more than four days.
 
Burma:  The P-47 squadron at Prome just flew a successful 4:1 sweep vs. Rangoon.  This may have been the first truly successful Allied sweep in the game to date.

[Canoerebel]

Yikes!  I forgot to turn off upgrades for my carriers at Auckland.  As a result, CV Wasp is out of action for the next fifteen days.  I can't believe I did this.  I may just delay things in the DEI, or I may send a bunch of CVE in place of Wasp.  I don't know yet. 

[crsutton]

Oh well, I have done it too.

In the end, an upgrade is a good thing......

[Canoerebel]

8/19/43 and 8/20/43

DEI: The map below shows the current base configuration in the eastern DEI. The Japanese have been focusing on the bases closer to Java, leaving the "northern periphery" less protected. The Allied plan calls for back-to-back invasions of Boela and Sorong. As soon as those bases are taken and the airfields operational, the Allies will move on Morotai, Manikwari, and Talaud Island. The latter can be built to a level eight base and is situated just south of Mindanoa, so I expect Miller to throw everything he has at me at that point if he hasn't already done so before.

Force Disposition: All Boela and Sorong troops are already located at Darwin. Most of the additional troops (Morotai) and transports are now between Townsville and Darwin. One of the big BB TFs will arrive at Darwin in two days. The rest of the combat ships and carriers remain at Auckland, where CV Wasp and BB Washington (augh!) are upgrading.

Burma: Allied fighters are still getting roughed up on sweep (the sweeps over the past two days - which didn't include the P-47Ds - lost 25 fighters while claiming one Japanese fighter [terrible performance, but par for the course in our game]. However, the B-24s were then able to inflict quite a bit of damage against the airfield. Overall, the air campaign against Rangoon has been bloody, but the Allies are beginning to assert themselves in a meaningful way.

[Canoerebel]

8/21/43 to 8/24/43
 
Babo, New Guinea:  The last shipment of troops that I wanted to get to their destination prior to the amphibious operations getting underway has finished unloading.  This transport TF was protected by the Royal Sovereign TF.  There is alot of Japanese shipping in the area - including BBs at Ambon.  I wouldn't be surprised if Miller has planned an interdiction raid, but the transports and combat ships are heading back to Darwin.
 
Kaimana, New Guinea:  A separate transport TF unloaded another base force here.  This level five field can handle 150 aircraft and will be a key part of the upcoming operations.  I'm sending the "new guys on the block" (BB Indiana and BB South Dakota TF) here.
 
Carriers:  All carriers but the upgrading Wasp just formed into TFs and will leave Auckland tonight.  The group consists of six CVs, three CVLs, and ten CVEs.  Wasp will following in about a week.  (Three CVEs are repairing at Pearl Harbor and two more just left Portland for Christmas Island.  These may be used in CenPac and SoPac at some point).
 
Burma:  Miller has suddenly pulled his aircraft out of Rangoon.  This comes as a surprise.  Although he was losing some on the ground, he was winning every air battle.  He may be upgrading to better aircraft or resting.  I can't imagine he would abandon 33 units to uncontested bombing. 
 
China:  The Japanese took the vacated Kweilin.