Matrix Games Forums

Whew! I just spent the last week reading this AAR and am about 2/3rds of the way through John's. It really has been the best. Not only because it was well done but the game itself has been a nail biter with lots of action. My two campaigs as the Allies have been much less dramatic and followed a much more predictible course.

Some comments

1. You are right. The key for the Allies is to get into position to bomb Japan. Once that is done, then the game is over. This AAR proves that any Japanese sucess elsewhere is negated if the Allies get an opening to start an early bombing campaign against the homeland. John's failure to eject you from your home island foothold was a major mistake. You are correct in that he should have spared no effort to eject you.

2. Oz is a big gamble and IMHO not worth the effort. It also bugs me that in stock or any of the mods taking OZ is even remotely feasable for Japan. The Japanese Army was just not mobile enough to undertake a campaign such as that as the superior allied tanks would have just sliced them up in the open terrain. But a campaign in Oz really means a Japanese commitment to autovictory and as you proved exposes the Japanese player to counterblows where he can least afford it.

A word on balance. Except for autovictory, we really do not see Japanese players winning much. This tends to skew the game as so many Japanese players base their strategy on gaining an autovictory. That is they tend to blitz out and overexpand rather than following a more sound expansion and fortify plan. It sort of makes for some boring endgames as the Japanese are prone to getting overwhelmed by the Allies as a penalty for over reaching in pursuit of the auto victory.

I would suggest two things. One is to get rid of autovictory. It does nothing to enhance the game. So the emphasis should be on the point system and playing a full campaign to the end. Now how to balance the points out. In most games the Allies are going to sooner or later get close enough to Japan to start racking up bombing points so Japan needs some help.

As a solution, perhaps points can be scaled to different levels at different times in the game. For expample, it should cost the Japanese a lot more in VP to lose a carrier (or any ship) in 1942 than it should in late 1944 when they are just about doomed. Likewise casualties for the Allies in late 1944 should be much more expensive. If the Allies player loses a TF with a full division on it to a Japanese carrier raid in 1944 the penalty should be stiff. Just imaging the political fallout in the States if 15,000 men were lost for no reason.

So even little victories by Japanese in 1944 and 45 should bring big rewards while Allies victories should provide smaller VP gains. This not only serves to balance the game but also will keep Japanese players interested in playing out the game when everything seems to be hopeless.

8/29/44 to 8/31/44
 
Superforts ranged far and wide over these three days:
 
Day 1:  B-29s from Georgetown were ordered to hit Batavia's resources, and B-29s from Darwin to hit Davao's port.  Both strikes were the first against these targets and both raids went in as ordered and faced little or no opposition.  The Batavia raid of 124 bombers hit 48 resources; the Davao raid of 55 bombers damaged seven transports (but no signs of carriers here).  These raids were "snap" decisions.
 
Day 2:  In a raid that had been in the planning for quite some time, B-29s were ordered to hit the port of Shanghai, where recon showed there to be alot of transports.  Prior to the raid, the Allies reconfigured fighters at Chinese bases, moving more long-range aircraft (P-51Bs, Lightnings, and P-47Ds) to Changsha and Hengchow.  The first raid of 58 P-51B, 17 P-47, and 182 B-29 faced 30 Zeke, 25 Jack, and 20 Tony.  The Allies lost 4 P-51s; the Japs lost 14 Zeke, 17 Jack, 16 Tony.  The bombers hit three ARs, three transports, and damaged 53 resources.  A second raid of 28 B-24s with fighter escort faced weak opposition and dstroyed 28 aicraft in the air and on the ground.
 
Day 3:  A concerted raid against Tokyo.  First, three squadrons of fighters from Tori Shima (31 P-47D, 15 P-38L) flew a sweep, facing 12 Zeke, 27 Jack, and 130 Franks.  The Allies lost 17/7 and the Japs 4/6/40.  Next came a raid from Iwo Jima consisting of 25 B-24, 25 P-38L, 34 P-38J, 20 P-47D, and 6 P-61 facing 8 Zeke, 21 Jack, and 86 Franks.  The Allies lost 2 P-38L, 21 P-38J, 3 P-47D, and 2 P-61; the Japs lost 3 Zeke, 4 Jack, and 54 Frank. The B-24s were supposed to hit the Ohka factory, but no hits registered. Finally, 143 unescorted B-29s came in and faced 34 Frank, 5 Zeke, and 17 Jack, the Allies losing two bombers and the Japs a single Frank.  The bombers scored 59 resource hits, 23 Frank factory hits, and 58 heavy industry hits.  B-24s and B-17s from Toyohara were supposed to join in, but failed to do so.  B-24s, B-17s and PBY Liberators from Shikuka hit Aomori, destroying 15 resources and damaging a few other facilities.
 
Evaluation:  Over three days, B-29s hit the "remote" locations of Davao and Batavia.  This may force John to re-evaluate CAP even at "interior" bases, and impacts his sense of "security" there and everywhere within range of these bombers.  The B-29s also scored well at Shanghai, perhaps reinforcing the conclusion that this is no longer a safe harbor.  The raid at Tokyo was a marked success, with the Allies winning both the air battle and doing material damage to the city.  However, the failure of the Toyohara bombers to fly served as a reminder that I need to swap out some of these B-24s and B-17s for B-29s.
 
SEAC:  On the 31st, Japanese bombers sortied against a solitary AK at Padang, Sumatra, the Japs losing 53 aircraft while only damaging the transport (the 31st was an aweful day for John in the air, what with this raid, Tokyo, and the loss of 12 Randys over Tori Shima; for the day, the Japs lost 213 aircraft, the Allies 77).  The Allies wiped out the Japanese remnants at Soc Trang on the 30th and took vacant Luangprabang (in  interior Indochina) and Mersing on the 31st.  The Japs now have two bases left in SEAC:  Siem Riep with two weary brigades (the Allies will be attacking there commencing in two days); and Singapore, which holds 31 Japanese units.  The Allied army at Johore Bharu began the advance to Singapore on the 29th, and may cross the straits on September 1.
 
China:  Troops continue prepping for Operation Shooting Star, the simulataneous land and amphibious campaigns against Japanese bases in eastern China.
 
NoPac:  The Allies have established a good supply line to make sure there are plenty of supplies at Sikhalin Island to support the B-29s and other 4EB hitting Japan.
 
CenPac:  Iwo remains quiet; the Allied amphibious TF is SW of Eniwetok, but I'm not yet positive I want to move south.  A recon squadron at Milne Bay is checking out defenses at places like Rabaul (which appears heavily fortified) and Lae (lightly fortified); tomorrow I'll check out Kaeving; over the enxt days I'll do Admiralty Islands and Buin.   I'm leary of sending my ships too far into Indian territory as I don't want to give John the very chance I've spoken against - permitting him to mass his carriers for a strike in his home waters.  So I'm evaluating a bit before I move.
 
SWPac:  Jap bombers and a small destroyer TF damaged several transports at Milne Bay, sinking one plus a DE; but the base force is unloaded.  The Allies wiped out resistance at Koumac.  An amphibious force is moving slowly north, hoping to coordinate its strike with whatever the CenPac amphibious force does.
 
Score:  (A) 65,591 (J) 55,721; Ratio:  1:17 to 1; Strategic:  10,668; Bases:  (A) 260 (J) 240.

Wow - the Franks really took it on the chin today. Between that & hitting the factories, it should put a pretty good dent into his supply of replacements.

It is obvious that the concentric pressure is starting to build. Although John still has the advantage of interior lines to move to meet any one threat, the multiple threat axis is going to pose a huge problem. He has two centers of mobile mass - his carriers (probably fully equipped now with the latest & greatest aircraft) and his air force (but it looks like he is beginning to take serious losses there).

The next few weeks should be very interesting.

I read the 2 AARs and I sort of root for the 2 players, and I must say It makes me sad to see the Franks take such a battering so quickly... It was bound to happen at some point put it really seems that again sweeps proved deadly efficient... Well done Dan.

I think crsutton said it perfectly with regard to Victory Conditions.

As Japan, you must play for auto-victory, because winning in 1945 is just about impossible. Check out PzB; he won an easy auto victory and played late war brilliantly, yet that game still ended in a VP draw, with the Allies gaining ground.

John was clearly overextended in this game, but I can't fault him, as he was doing what you have to do: Go for broke.

I've also said before: The Allies have 2 primary objectives, and that's it:

1. Get a bombing platform(s) within range of Japan
2. Interdict/destroy/capture oil shipments to Japan

All other objectives should be in support of these two, or just VP grabs.

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I think crsutton said it perfectly with regard to Victory Conditions.

As Japan, you must play for auto-victory, because winning in 1945 is just about impossible. Check out PzB; he won an easy auto victory and played late war brilliantly, yet that game still ended in a VP draw, with the Allies gaining ground.

John was clearly overextended in this game, but I can't fault him, as he was doing what you have to do: Go for broke.

I've also said before: The Allies have 2 primary objectives, and that's it:

1. Get a bombing platform(s) within range of Japan
2. Interdict/destroy/capture oil shipments to Japan

All other objectives should be in support of these two, or just VP grabs.

IIRC, PzB missed the autovictory by only a couple of points, didn´t he? People always state how easy it is to achieve a Japanese autovictory in 43 but when you really read the AARs, there aren´t that many folks that are then able to do it! [X(]

IMO with the possibility to score points en masse with strategic bombing, it´s easier for the Allied to score autovictory in 1/45 then for the Japanese to do it in 1/43. At least this is what I see when reading AARs, of course only a couple of them make it into later stages of the war but as you can also see in this one, strategic bombing scores a hell a lot of points.

Q-Ball, I like CRSutton's suggestions too.  As it is now, the game forces the Allies to achieve a 2:1 advantage to win auto-victory in 1945, which I don't think is very difficult; but it has to be very demoralizing to a Japanese player to play well, fight hard, but come out on the losing end on points.  Changing the points system so that the Japanese player gets more points late in the game for sinking ships, downing planes, etc. makes good sense, and it would encourage Japanese players not to throw in the towel.

In our game, John won the first half, in large part because he was aggressive, smart, and well-organized, with my inexperience certainly contributing its mite.  I think I've won the second half, partly because I gambled on some big moves - carefully planned moves, but tinged with some desperation - that turned out very well. The overwhelming might of the Allies was a big factor too.

In his other AAR, John recently poo-pooed my interest in scoring points in these games.  But to me, the fun of a massive, complex game like this is the challenge of "solving a problem":  Okay, I have these resources, this much time, and my opponent has such-n-such - now, how do I win?  That's the way I approached this game and it's been a blast - sometimes a scary, nerve-wracking, irritating blast, but a blast nonethelss. 

John has shown real character by sticking too this game so long (as did Miller, my opponent in my previous PBEM game).  It was hard on me to take it on the chin for a 1.5 years early in the game, and now John's been taking it on the chin for that long late in the game.  Only I knew the punishment would draw to a close; John doesn't have that luxury. 

Really, PzB missed the Auto-Victory? That only reinforces that VP's aren't balanced right; he conquered all of India, yet still couldn't win the game. And you're right castor, haven't observed many Japanese Auto-Victories.

Not sure how important VP's are, but you do want to measure how you are doing.

There is no doubt that WITP Japan is more powerful than RL Japan. If AE is more historically accurate, hopefully the VP's are re-balanced.

If you produce an exactly historical result in WITP as in RL, I think the Allies would easily win a decisive victory without using the A-Bombs. Probably too much of a penalty for using those, but that's another story. But the point difference would be HUGE.

There should be something to keep you in late as Japan, because unlike the early-war Allies it gets WORSE every day for the Empire.

One thing I noticed is the huge disparity in points the Allies get for controling bases vs Japan. I think this was done to avaoid almost a guarteed Autovictory for Japan by the end of 1942. But if you removed Autovictory from the equation, it would make the game more interesting. It would take some serious parsing of the data but one could set it up so that a game that has near historical results by AUgust '45 in terms of territory held, a/c losses and ship losses would equal a near tie in points. Any variation beyond that would equal a clear victory for the side who performed better than the RL model.

Is that not the point about this game? If it is a forgone conslucion that the Japanese will lose the war, do we not play (both AFB and JFB) to se if we can do better than our historical counterparts?

In the old SPI War in the Pacific game one of the best things in the game was called "Shortening the War". What this basically meant was that if the Japanese player achieved certain strategic goals above the historica reality, the Allied player lost turns. For example, the Allied player was required to keep what was called a Merchant Shipping Pipeline between WC USA and Oz. Every month that this was not true, the Allied player lost a week. So if say Japan conquers NZ and no MS Pipeline existed for say six months, the war ends on 1 July 1945. BTW, in the SPI game, victory was achieved by making the Japanese economy collapse not by killing ships, planes or troops.

It might be a good idea to move this autovictory and VP point debate to the main forum? I don't know if it is too late but if it has not been discussed it should before AE is done.
 
Canoerebel, You really have not touched on your sub war in your AAR. Could I ask you to take some time and write a few paragraphs about the course of the Allied sub effort for your game? What has worked, what has not. Your thoughs on how you think it is best to conduct the Allies sub campaign. Perhaps list a few of your major sucesses and so on.

Hm, I got autovictory in my PBEM vs AndyMac (which he took over after the previous opponent quit), but that was probably due to the elimination of china and my capture of Noumea.

9/1/44
 
Singapore:  The large Allied army crossed the straits to begin the long, long seige of Singapore, only to immediately take the city on a 18:1 shock attack sufficient to overcome the four forts.  This unexpected success has taken me totally by surprise - I had envisioned a long, difficult seige similar to Malacca.  Why this key city has just four forts I can't image.  In an email, John said that he has been pulling out troops via air transport.  This too is a surprise - I think he'd have been better served trying to turn this into Malacca Part Two; however, I don't know what difficulties he's facing, so I can't really pass informed judgment on his strategy.  The seizure of this city permits the Allies to undertake naval and amphbious operations in the Java Sea and South China Sea.  I'm moving base forces forward and expect to have 250 aircraft at Singapore within three days.  The navy will be right behind them.  This also pushes up Operation Shooting Star by weeks if not months.  I have troops all over the place recuperating, prepping, and shifting to locations where I thought they could best embark on transports (ports like Saigon and Camranh Bay) - since I had thought they wouldn't be need for a long time.  It will take me ten days to two weeks to get ships where the men are to get things underway.

Elsewhere in SEAC:  32 Georgetown-based B-29s hit Palembang destroying 15 resources.  Day after tomorrow the Allies will attack at Siem Riep, the last Japanese base in SEAC.

Japan:  Toyohara 4EBs hit Aomori's manpower, scoring enough hits to start 4,350 fires.  I realize from previous comments that there are good reasons not to target manpower, but I've pretty much wiped out every other target in northern Japan, and I also want to experiment with this to see if it accomplishes anything useful - it did provide some points.

CenPac: I had issued orders for my carriers to move to a point about 360 miles south of Eniwetok and then got cold feet. I really don't know what's out there and John's had time to cook up something with the KB if he wanted to. So I'm going to send this armada back north for now. Before moving in this region, I think I'll make a strong show of force from Singapore to draw John's attention that way; plus I need time to bring ANZAC forces closer to the region.

Points:  (A) 67,739 (J) 55,712; Ratio: 1.21 to 1; Strategic Points:  10,706

Bombing manpower is exzctly what you need to do.
It will not damage manpower industry - but will start fires and give you a chance to destroy other industry instead damaging it. This will provide 18 times more victory points.
I'm not sure but i beleive it will reduce japanese manpower pools also(whitch already consumed resources).
But you need much more than 4000 fires - about 300 000 of them.

ORIGINAL: crsutton

It might be a good idea to move this autovictory and VP point debate to the main forum? I don't know if it is too late but if it has not been discussed it should before AE is done.

Canoerebel, You really have not touched on your sub war in your AAR. Could I ask you to take some time and write a few paragraphs about the course of the Allied sub effort for your game? What has worked, what has not. Your thoughs on how you think it is best to conduct the Allies sub campaign. Perhaps list a few of your major sucesses and so on.

I haven't kept detailed notes about sub warfare, noting only occasional "major" hits, which have been few and far between. One notable hit was a single torpedo into CVL Chiyoda near Saipan back in '43.

Subs on both sides have been very active, hitting heck of alot of transports and tankers. Both sides have also worked ASW; of late, this has been a real focus on John's part. He's sank quite a few and damaged many Allied subs.

The Allies employed sub-minelaying from Manila early in the game, to good effect. Then I did next to no mine-laying for about two years. I started doing so again from Iwo Jima about two months ago, with little success to this point.

I did post one note not long ago detailing my current sub operations. In short, the main sub bases are Sabang (patroling south of Sumatra, Java Sea, and southern South China Sea); Iwo Jima (patroling Philippine Sea, Saipan and Paula area, northern South China Sea, and southern Home Islands; Shikuka (primarily responsible for a line of picket subs near Hokkaido); Midway/Eniwetok (Marshalls, Wake, and Solomons); and Aukland (New Caledonia, Coral Sea.

To be honest, Jap subs haven't been much of a factor the past year. John has either run low or is using them conservatively. I think Allied subs have been a nuisance, but not a real detriment to the Jap war effort.

Those of that follow both AAR's know you have failed to tell us about a certain well earned victory somewhere near, say, the southern tip of the Malay peninsula

ORIGINAL: Sayar

Bombing manpower is exzctly what you need to do.
It will not damage manpower industry - but will start fires and give you a chance to destroy other industry instead damaging it. This will provide 18 times more victory points.
I'm not sure but i beleive it will reduce japanese manpower pools also(whitch already consumed resources).
But you need much more than 4000 fires - about 300 000 of them.

It won't work... no one has been able to accomplish a firestorm in a PBEM afaik (unless possibly a nuke does it, but you won't be able to do it with regular bombing raids.)

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Those of that follow both AAR's know you have failed to tell us about a certain well earned victory somewhere near, say, the southern tip of the Malay peninsula

Check three postings above yours... [;)]

ORIGINAL: Mistmatz

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Those of that follow both AAR's know you have failed to tell us about a certain well earned victory somewhere near, say, the southern tip of the Malay peninsula

Check three postings above yours... [;)]

I see that now. I expected more of a party though. I think Dan is still in shock

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/1/44
 
Singapore:  The large Allied army crossed the straits to begin the long, long seige of Singapore, only to immediately take the city on a 18:1 shock attack sufficient to overcome the four forts.  This unexpected success has taken me totally by surprise - I had envisioned a long, difficult seige similar to Malacca.  Why this key city has just four forts I can't image.  In an email, John said that he has been pulling out troops via air transport.  This too is a surprise - I think he'd have been better served trying to turn this into Malacca Part Two; however, I don't know what difficulties he's facing, so I can't really pass informed judgment on his strategy.  The seizure of this city permits the Allies to undertake naval and amphbious operations in the Java Sea and South China Sea.  I'm moving base forces forward and expect to have 250 aircraft at Singapore within three days.  The navy will be right behind them.  This also pushes up Operation Shooting Star by weeks if not months.  I have troops all over the place recuperating, prepping, and shifting to locations where I thought they could best embark on transports (ports like Saigon and Camranh Bay) - since I had thought they wouldn't be need for a long time.  It will take me ten days to two weeks to get ships where the men are to get things underway.

In the meantime you could try to find out what your opponent has on Singkep. This base - once build up - could provide you with a good airfield to provide LRCAP for a drive further south (probably combined with a jump on Bangka, later).

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Elsewhere in SEAC:  32 Georgetown-based B-29s hit Palembang destroying 15 resources.  Day after tomorrow the Allies will attack at Siem Riep, the last Japanese base in SEAC.

If you plan to take Palembang sometime later, you should stop bombing the place (that is: oil and resources) now and use 2E bombers from Singapore on naval search and naval attack to prevent any further shipments to Japan (but you should keep the AF of Palembang suppressed). Oil and resources from Palembang could feed the HI at Singapore (if enough is left) and give you a supply source near the 'front'. Taking Palembang should be only an option if defenses are not too stong there, of course.

9/2/44
 
A New Dawn:  With Singapore falling it is indeed a new dawn for the Allies in this region, but this title is meant mainly to give John something to think about... (Vettim, I was mighty surprised to take Singapore so easily).
 
Singapore:  The sudden collapse of Japanese defenses caught me on the wrong foot and it will take some time to get things squared away.  An air regiment has already arrived, but the field and other facilities are completely wrecked; I don't have any engineers present, so repairs will go slow until two EAB arrive (the closest is at Georgetown, possibly five days away).  I need to clear mines.  My troops will bombard for a few days until they recover from the shock attack-induced disruption (most units are at 60/60 disruption/fatigue).  Until the airfield is operational and can host plenty of fighters, I can't move the combat TF here.  It will take perhaps a week to have Singapore up and running.
 
SEAC:  The Allies will try a deliberate attack at Siem Riep tomorrow.  Units prepping for Operation Shooting Star are all over the place - most of them are either marching up the Malay Peninsula to Saigon (a non-malarial city good for both reorganizing and eventual embarkation on transports) or at Rangoon reorganizing.  I think John may be evacuating Telekboetong and Palembang - I'm not quite sure yet.  Palembang is so close to Allied air bases that John may discontinue efforts to ship out resources and fuel, so I'm suspending my bombing campaign there until I can evaluate the situation.  No need in destroying these things if I'll be able to use them soon.
 
Japan:  The Allies were to conduct a coordinate strike on Nagasaki where recon showed an Japanese carrier.  20 P-47Ds from Tori Shima flew a sweep against 47 Jacks and 20 Franks, the Allies losing one fighter and the Japanese 14.  The B-24s from Iwo and the B-29s from Changsha refused to fly, however.  Meanwhile, John had organized a big strike against the airfield at Tori Shima.  20 Irving nightfighters came in first, scoring a single hit and losing two aircraft.  Then, 138 Franks and Zekes escorted 80 Bettys, Jills, and Helens, facing 43 P-38s.  The Allies knocked down 29 Franks, 17 Zekes, and 3 bombers while the Japanese destroyed 20 fighters in the air and 12 on the ground.
 
Tori Shima/Allied Aircraft Disposition:  I was surprised when I opened the file to see that Tori's engineers had completely repaired the damage from the Japanese raid.  On the assumption that this is the beginning of an all-out effort by John to deal with the threats posed by Tori and Iwo, I took some long-planned steps to rearrange aircraft in this region and at Sikhalin Island.  (1)  The Iwo B-24s went to Chungking and its PBY Liberators to Singapore (that's a long haul!); (2) Shikuka's B-24s and PBY Liberators went to Chungking; (3) The Tori Shima P-38Js went to Iwo, as did some P-47Ds and P-38Ls from Sikhalin Island and Paramushiro; (4) Two squadrons of P-47Ds went to Tori (one from Changsha, one from NoPac); two B-29 groups went from Chungking to Shikuka.  The new look:  (1) Iwo's aircraft compliment is entirely fighters, patrol, and recon aircraft; (2) Tori has three P-47D squadrons and one of P-38Ls; (3) Toyohara's compliment remains the same (fighters, B-24s, and B-17s); (4) Shikuka now has five B-29 groups and one B-17 group plus fighters; (5) Changsha has four B-29 groups; (6) the B-24s and PBY Liberators will be allocated between China and SEAC; (6) Georgetown has one B-29 group.
 
Tori Shima on the Ground:  SigInt shows 68th Independent Mixed Brigade prepping for Tori; it could be a bluff, but it could be the real McCoy.
 
CenPac:  The Allied carriers shall remain near Ponape over the short term.  CV Randolph just arrived at Midway joining CV Essex (which has 9 SYS damage), plus about six CVEs.
 
SWPac:  The Allies continue to recon the Solomons and New Brittain as I try to figure out exactly what I want to do with the two amphibious fleets - the one near Ponape and the one in the Coral Sea.  I don't think John will commit the KB to this theater at this point, but I'm not quite willing to take the risk until I know a little more about what his land defenses and airfields look like.