Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



DS is almost strong enough to seek battle (and another CV will arrive on scene in about a week).

[Bif1961]

In a recent carrier clash the KB came in at flank speed against my landing at Hollandia 6 June, 1943. He had it split into 3 TFs and one TF had a CA take a trop from a sub that slowed it up and split slowed that TF enough to have it lag behind the other two. His strikes came in split up against my 3 TFs with 2 CVs each, having about 66% fighters aboard. I also had 8 CVEs with 75% fighters aboard protecting the Hollandia landing in the hex while my CVs were 2 hexes to the NW expecting the KB to engage. The KB ended up being NE and N of my CVs and Hollandia. His attacks were not coordinated, partially from having the KB split between 2 hexes, and were handled by the CVs CAP and CVEs CAP damaging two CVEs only, one later sinking. My CV strike was better coordinated but still split between the two different KB elements in two different hexes. The end result was he lost 5 CVs, 2 CVLs, 1 BB, 2 CAs, 2 CLs and 4 DDs. My CVEs were on CAP and ASW ops so contributed no strike aircraft. The American fleet carriers had about 550 AC and the KB 500. It probably would have been a different story if that CA hadn't been slowed by the sub torp hit during the night but that was the nail that cost a horse shoe, that cost the horse that cost the General that lost the battle.

[Canoerebel]

That's the way things come about. I'd like to think DS would win a battle but who knows. On that fateful turn about five days back, a USN sub takes six shots at Kaga and misses; an IJN sub takes six shots at Bunker Hill and scores a hit. And that might've proven decisive, even as your example with the Japanese CA.

When a big battle occurs, I'll be a long way from a friendly port. Dave will be a short distance from Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard, or from Truk/Saipan/etc. Whatever can be done to improve the odds or outthink the enemy is worth it.

P.S. Bunker Hill has 10 SYS, 20 FLT (all major) and no ENG. She's nearly to Townsville, where two ARDs, each with enough capacity to handle her, are waiting. It's good to have those assets properly positioned, and that's just the kind of thing that's been going on behind the scenes since the big Bay of Bengal battle nine months ago.

[jwolf]

Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard

[&:] It's only 8 in stock. I could believe some expansion, but 51??

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, somehow Dave expanded Soerabaja shipyard to size 51. He probably did so because he didn't get Singapore's shipyard for a long, long, long time.

[jwolf]

[X(][X(] I sure wish they would let the Allies do that. Thanks for the clarification.

[Anachro]

It's a tough call to make. You can expand repair facilities, but then if the Allies take them they also get those same facilities, so it might not be a good idea to expand repair shipyards close to the front lines. Trade-off decision that Japanese players have to make.

[Canoerebel]

There are several other matches ongoing in which the opponents are fighting over the same territory that Dave and I are fighting over, but much earlier. Here it's spring '44 and I'm just entering territory other Allied players are contesting in mid-43. Am I doing something wrong or something right? That remains to be seen, but I feel good about things.

Before I proceed, I'd better make it clear that I'm not saying my way is right and others are wrong. There are many ways to play the game. This time, I'm doing things differently, focusing on the Japanese "denominator," a strategy that came about largely because Dave has played such a radical Sir Robin defense for Japan (and that, too, isn't a negative comment; his strategy is a viable one and interesting and it's given me a problem to solve, which is always fun). In games vs. John III, he is so aggressive that the Allied player can get surprised and often has to make stands to prevent John from accomplishing more than he should. As a result of such pressure, proximity, friction and fighting, the two sides clash much more frequently than Dave and I have....and, to an extent, any clash that results in less than a 2:1 victory for the Allies helps Japan drag out the war (the exception being if Japan is crippled in some way and thus less able to defend/fight going forward).

In the game between John III and Anacrho, the points ratio as of 6/1/43 is approximately 45k to 28.5k, using just approximate numbers. The difference is 17k and the Allies are 61.5k away from AV (assuming that was the score in 1945, when 2:1 is necessary).

In my game with Dave, it's nine months later, so you'd think the scores would be higher. But Japan leads 28.5k to 23k. That's a difference of 5.5 k. The Allies would need 34k to achieve AV if this was the score in '45.

If I can keep Dave's score down - keep that denominator low - the route to victory is considerably easier. By that measure, the Allies are much closer to AV. Of course, events can change the equation drastically. And there's the question of whether Dave is better prepared to fight than John III, going forward.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard

[&:] It's only 8 in stock. I could believe some expansion, but 51??

Actual size is probably 50. The game always adds one to industry when you do a mouse rollover.

[Canoerebel]

Why didn't I know that?

The Lord knows when a sparrow falls, counts the hairs on our head, the sand in the sea and the stars in the sky....and that's about how many things I don't know about this game.

[Bif1961]

It is 1 July, 1943 in my contest as the Allies and the VPs are 28,106 for Japan and 25,506 for the Allies.

[RangerJoe]

That is doing quite well against a human.

[CaptBeefheart]

Surabaya at 50? That makes a nice target for the Allies. What is Manila at?

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

I just checked. Soerabaja is 65, Manila 41.

[Canoerebel]

3/10/44 to 3/13/44

Tipping Point: I like the current configuration of forces and the maps, so things are about to get very busy.

An Allied invasion of Port Headland will commence tomorrow, covered by a modest CVE force. I don't believe Dave has detection; I'm not even sure he cares. But that kind of thinking is usually counterproductive.

At the same time, DS and all kinds of Herds are departing Oz and Milne Bay to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria. My preference is to seek a major carrier clash but there are many permutations of the plan, ranging from major invasions to feinting and teasing to distract Dave and hold his attention here.

At the same time, another CVE TF & Herd is at sea far away, approaching another target, but that force won't be committed unless there really does seem to be an open window of opportunity.

I don't know where KB is at the moment - last seen three or four days back heading as if for Yap or Palau. I suspect it then moved south, back towards a hidden spot on the shadowed side of Sorong.

Any carrier battle should prove decisive. Win it and the Allies have the forces in position to advance steadily into the heartland. Lose it and suddenly everything becomes a slow trudge from island to island, with Dave able to gang up and fight pretty effectively. So I don't want him to get a set piece battle here...but I do want him to think he has a shot at a set piece battle.

[Canoerebel]

3/14/44 and 3/15/44

Port Headland: A complex sequence of moves opens with the Allied invasion of Port Headland. While taking this base is important (eventually), the purpose is to see if Dave reacts and commits capital ships this way. D-Day went smoothly on the 14th. Nearly all Allied shipping then withdrew to the Exmouth vicinity on the 15th, to see if hornets poured out of the nest. They didn't at least this day. And already events elsewhere should have Dave's full attention, and should acts as a vortex, drawing most of his major assets posted in this theater and nearby regions. Once those events fully ripen in about two or three days, and assuming there's been no reaction at Port Headland, the transports will return to drop off the balance of 18th UK Div. and more supply. P.S. The enemy garrison here is just a regiment, and it's AV looks brittle, based on early bombardments and counter-bombardments.

Gulf of Carpentaria: A massive gathering of carriers, combat ships, support ships, and merchantmen at and near Horn Island. This armada will move generally west, into the Gulf of Carpentaria, nearing Merauke tomorrow. Major invasion forces are included for Darwin and modest forces for vacant places like Dobo and Saumlaki (Dave leaves lots of holes, me thinks), but the primary objective is to engage KB. Consequently, only modest troop transports will accompany DS, feinting towards Darwin. Then DS will move suddenly towards the Saumlaki vicinity, hoping to catch Dave's carriers out of position.

Death Star: This is a powerful carrier force, although a few of the fleet carriers are only carrying fighters for added defense. At the moment, about 680 fighters are set to CAP and about 340 are set for Escort. I'll fiddle with that as the situation ripens. KB, when last seen a week ago, had about 950 aircraft. It might've been reinforced or Dave may have other tricks up his sleeve. But I like the set up and feel sure that he'll not expect DS to suddenly change to offense that deep in his territory.

Elsewhere: Another invasion force, covered by CVEs, is deep at sea far away, but I don't feel comfortable about its mission. It's still moving forward, but I just don't know. Re-evaluation is ongoing.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just checked. Soerabaja is 65, Manila 41.

So that is 64 at Soerabaja - 8 expanded to 16 then to 32 then to 64. The IJ player can increment the industry points singly using the "All Industry" report button at the top of the screen, but in this case it appears he just kept doubling the industry amount.
Manila doubled from 20 to 40.

[Canoerebel]

Sounds like the progression of those early computers - 64 bit, 128 bit, etc.

[Canoerebel]

3/16/44

Timor Sea Region: The Allied invasion helps smoke out an enemy carrier force moving into the IO from Bali or vicinity. That's good to know but the big question know is this: Is this part of the KB seen at Hollandia a week ago? That KB had 950 aircraft. Or is this a separate KB that could be tacked on to the Hollandia carriers, increasing it's aircraft total to 1250 or so? That's a critical question.

DS & Various and Sundry Herds are moving into the Arafura Sea, intend on drawing a carrier clash unless the equation looks bad. Tomorrow DS moves straight towards Darwin. I don't think Dave will seek a battle until he gets all carriers available within striking distance. So I should have at least a couple of days.

[Canoerebel]

3/17/44

Timor Sea: An interesting, fluid situation.

KB broke to the SW at flank speed and caught the tail end of the Port Headland invasion force, sinking a rearguard DD TF and a lingering supply xAK. But now KB is a bit out of position. DS closed towards Darwin....but it was seeking a carrier battle...so the invasion TFs are further behind. There are lots of vacant bases in this region - important bases, given Allied long-term plans - so I'm bringing up the transports as fast as possible. There is already a small TF with "special forces" (successors to the Rangers) that is in position to land at vacant Saumlaki, perhaps day after tomorrow.

I don't know what Dave does now. He has some detection on the retiring Headland invasion force, 10-15 hexes SW of KB....but KB already ran at flank speed once, and he'll (probably) be leery of the big Allied airfields from Geraldton to Perth. He just might continue the chase, but the real deal is in the Gulf of Timor, and I think he knows or it will by tomorrow. So it's somewhat more likely that KB comes this way. Either way, the Allies now have a good position in this sea, kind of taking "the high ground." Dave is the one that has to advance, in a fairly predictable manner, if he wishes to close to contest (surely he does?). The Allies have the flexibility of invading or creating the appearance of an invasion and then moving suddenly to seek a big carrier battle.

It's a fluid and dangerous situation but I like the lay of the land.