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I thought there was a 50/50 chance as to which side Kentucky joins (assuming neither side has troops stationed there). I've restarted about half a dozen times as the CSA at different levels, and every game Kentucky joins the Union on the 2nd or 3rd turn.

yes it can go either way

I do not think it is 50-50, but there CSA can gain Kentucky

I've done almost the same you did. And i had them join me once , out
of 10 or so.(all on adv lvl)

I've started three games, all as the Union, and Kentucky has joined the rebels every time. [:@]
So I guess my answer to your question is yes.

It definitely does join the CSA sometimes. Somewhere in the forum (and perhaps in the manual as well--I have not looked) the chance was given. It is not 50-50, it is much more likely to join the union. That being said, I have had a number of games as the CSA where I got control of Kentucky. The key is to get all your forces out of there on the 1st turn. Actually, I think the AI does not tend to remove its forces that quickly, and so the CSA gets kentucky the majority of the time in my games against the AI.

Alex

From what I read it should be 80-20 USA-CSA but it is more likely to join the side that has less forces in the state.
 

I've had it go both ways, though it seems to favor the Union (makes sense, that's the way it went in real life). I've also had it "sit on the fence" for a number of months before "deciding". And the one time I Emancipated as the Union (had to, in spite of 100 gold per turn every turn, Britian had reached +6 CSA and France +5), Kentucky went Rebel the very next turn.

By the way..., has anyone else noticed that since the patch the South seems to be doing better in the "Struggle for Europe"? I've only started two games since then, but in both I'm having a much more difficult time holding the Europeans "down". In the one where I Emancipated, Britian was back up to +6 CSA within 5 turns in spite of maximum spending on 4 out of 5. Or am I just having some extremly bad luck?

it may be bad luck, nothing was done to the Diplo rules in the patch (that I know of)

you may be getting a CSA Governor supporting Diplo with England

this is odd, as playing as CSA I normally have trouble keeping my levels with them up, so do not know if the AI is getting a bonus

I forgot where I read it but I swear it said Kentucky's entry chance was based on the number of troops from each side.  (The larger group had the worse chance... ie were considered the aggressor.)  I've kind of tested this by making a mod.  Using the standard game where the USA has more troops in Kentucky it kept siding with CSA... in my mod (I moved the union troops back across the boarder) it joins with the USA.
 
 

They did do in my game - I am playing USA [:(]

The CSA player must remember that Paducah is part of Kentucky. Its easy to forget to remove troops from this province.

ORIGINAL: dude

I forgot where I read it but I swear it said Kentucky's entry chance was based on the number of troops from each side.  (The larger group had the worse chance... ie were considered the aggressor.)  I've kind of tested this by making a mod.  Using the standard game where the USA has more troops in Kentucky it kept siding with CSA... in my mod (I moved the union troops back across the boarder) it joins with the USA.

Remember also that the designer's have mistakenly put Ft. Henry in Kentucky..., if you garrison it as the Rebels, you are handing Kentucky to the Union.

no, I have gotten Kentucky while leaving the troops in the fort

but at times, if you think it is going to go Union early, it may be better to pull the troops, as you may not be able to change the guns in time to make it worth holding

ORIGINAL: Hard Sarge

no, I have gotten Kentucky while leaving the troops in the fort

but at times, if you think it is going to go Union early, it may be better to pull the troops, as you may not be able to change the guns in time to make it worth holding

True, one brigade probably isn't enough to guarantee it going to the North..., but it certainly bolsters the odds. But my real point is that whomever designed the map got it wrong, and if it was in Tennessee where it belongs the problem wouldn't exist.

Seems to me, if you leave Frankfurt (the capital of KY) as the USA and the CSA take it (before KY declares sides) then it hands it to them. Maybe this is my bad luck, but I pulled everything out of KY and the CSA left it all in, but still got it in about 3 games out of 6.

Son of Montfort

Does the map error having fort henry in kentucky instead of in tennessee effect kentucky going to the union? In other words CSA has troops in kentucky but should not.

Seems to me the AI just gets allot of money. 

ORIGINAL: Tanaka

Does the map error having fort henry in kentucky instead of in tennessee effect kentucky going to the union? In other words CSA has troops in kentucky but should not.

Any impact that garrison might have on Kentucky is not statistically significant. And since it would be foolish to withdraw a garrison from a key province, this is not something to be concerned about.

When I have played the Union the only time Ky decided in my favor was when I kicked the Confederates out. Next turn after I had the only troops in the state it went for the Union.

I'm in mid-1862 as the rebs and KY has not decided where to go yet.  Is there a time limit?