ORIGINAL: WanderingHead
I'd not be too worried about losing France in Winter '40, it means you can get FM2 a season earlier for Russia. Allies lose 5 production in France and gain 6 production in Russia. So given the choice, I still think I'd pour '39 French production into research instead of units.
I guess first assumptions would make it seem that way, but there are several other factors that you may not have considered fully before saying a bump in Russian production outweighs the French loss in production. Here are a few things to consider if France does fall in Winter 40.
1. The Allies loss 5 production, Germany gains that production 1 turn sooner. Consider the whole spread and not just the 5 loss.
2. Germany gains several more resources.
3. Hooking up to Spain 1 turn sooner provides a bonus 10 supply and an extra 3 resources, maybe 4 with Portugal.
4. Brings in Italy 1 turn sooner, in theory. That's extra manpower, production que acceleration, more time to move forces into North Africa, etc.
5. Siam joins Japan 1 turn earlier, which is a production gain for the Japs.
6. The Russians will not always gain 6 production if France falls in Winter 40. It seems to me it would be about 50/50 that an early bump to FM2 might happen. If Russia is shy by 4 or more points then he would have to wait for his seasonly d2 WR bumps to put him at the FM2 mark. Making, it seems to me, a likely bump to FM2 during Summer40, no matter when France falls.
Basically, if you can't rely on Russia getting an early FM bump, then all the gains for the Axis make it a total windfall in their favor. And even if Russia gains the FM bump a turn earlier it still looks favorable to the Axis.
To ignore French troop buildup on turn 1 would be a mistake in Uncommon Valor 2.0. The German player would see that and roll into the Netherlands in the Fall because the Allies would lack the forces to make a decent counterattack. On turns 2 and 3 is where you would see the French have some real choices. More could be devoted to tech at the expense of a strong defense. With the US giving its 18 production on turn 3 it's not that important to use the French production on tech at this time, so a player could decide to build 4 French units a turn up until France falls to make Germany pay as much as possible for the conquest. In the stock scenarios, France can only make Militia on the last turn, so it's preferred to build tech instead. But if you had the choice to get Infantry or Arty out in time, a player may decide it's worth it to build them rather than spend all of France's last production on tech. As I already pointed out, US production on turn 3 is enough to advance all the critical techs, so French production on turns 2 and 3 would be more a matter of taste. Giving players the option of using French production makes things a lot more interesting. FM0 in 39 was a quick fix that is no longer necessary.