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After watching the combat simulator text log I realised units where attacking with a power equal to the modifier vs the current troop type / number of attacks. So i created this image that shows the real attack value for each of the attacks for some units with multiple attacks. Hope it proves usefull. And hopefully im not wrong in how I read the combat log.

Bear in mind that my current understanding of the combat engine is that your attack value compared to your defensive value gives you somehow a percentage chance of hitting the other unit. Such a hit is then followed by a check for kill (25% chance usually) retreat (25% usually) and if the unit gets pinned (unknown % chance.) What this means in practice is that a lot of attacks is good as it causes more chances to hit.

(Edited because of new theory on how hits are caused thanks to xenomath) See my next post for a detailed explenation on how I think combat works.

As far as I can figure, the odds of a hit are final (modified) attack strength divided by target hit points.

The attack strength used is the "Attack Attack" when your unit initiated the combat (ie it is your turn), or the "Defend Attack" strength if your unit was attacked (and is counter attacking) - ie it is not currently your turn.

Once you score a hit, then there is the modified kill% chance to kil the target, modified retreat% to cause a retreat, and the rest of the odds to cause morale loss, etc.

In most cases %kill and %retreat = 25%. Submarines get up to 50% evade kill so that effectively means that the max kill% against then is only 12.5%.

Yes thats what I think too. Great comment about evade kill % i think its correct the way you understand it. Now all I have to do is figure out chance of pinning a unit.

Some wisdoms I have gotten out of this:

(1) In general battles where the modifiers are pretty even you are best of with a high number of attacks compared with a high attack value.

(2) In battles where the defender has a lot of negative mods that is where units with low attack numbers but high base attack values shine. (Bazookas will own tanks that are encircled very efficent due to the hitpoints of the tanks are reduced % wise a lot because of low readiness and supply consumption.)

BTW: This is the order of combat; (I think I finaly got it right this time. Rdn is =Readiness not random mod *Sigh* im too used to programming for the zx spectrum with rnd as random number generator Anyone that ever has programmed in basic will understand why I did that mistake.)

(ATTACK)
Base attack values is taken into account = attack vs current type / number of attacks. Defence = Hitpoints
Modifier 1: global combat modifier (wheater) (PS: Its spelled wrong in the combat log. Small bug
Modifier 2: Landscapetype
Modifier 3: Staff
Modifier 4: Readiness
modifier 5: SupplyConsume
Modifer 6: Battle For People X
Modifier 7: Battle Versus People Y
Modifier 8: XP mod
Modifier 9: Concentric Bonus
Modifier 10: Crowding att mod
= total attack number

(DEFENCE)
Modifier 1: Readiness
Modifier 2: SupplyConsume
Modifier 3: Entrench for defending hex
Modifier 4: xp
Modifier 5: Crowding def Mod
= total defence number

(update thanks to xenomath i have a new theory on how combat works, basically you roll a number between 1 and your attack number and the defender does the same for his defence and you hit if you get equal or higher i think. That causes the following formula to be true:)

Hit % (if total attack is lower than total defence) = total attack number / total defence number * 0.50
Hit % (if total attack is higher than total defence) = 1 - total defence number / total attack number * 0.50


Hit = initiation of chance to kill, chance to retreat and chance to pinn. Failure of all 3= miss. Structural dmg calculated if kill, retreat or pinn, but not during misses. (I assume.)
miss = miss.

This is really nice work guys. I'm a newbie and still hopelessly confused about how to calculate combat odds, which is essential to my gaming enjoyment. Maybe you can help me with a few clarifications.

1. In Willburn's chart, what do the A and D values represent more specifically?
2. Where can I find this combat simulator text log referred to? I have it turned on in preferences but don't know how to find it.
3. In the statistic charts given in the game for the subformations, lower right, where it says vs. SFT Types: are these multipliers actually supposed to be 1.xx of something. For example 10x bazookas vs. Light Tank Attack modifier is to multiply 1.2? and if so, what is it multiplying 1.2 times?
4. In the same statistic chart for subformations, in the Vs. Classes part, it lists defend pts. (e.g. 10x bazookas vs. armour =400). What is this value? Is it different than hit points? (which is listed for this formation as 150)
5. More generic question: I have times when the values listed on the unit counters total up to about 90, going up against a single unit of 11-15, and the attacker loses every time (armor vs. bazooka). Am I right in concluding that there are so many modifiers and other values not accounted for in the posted number on the unit counter, that using them as a guide for strength vs. another unit is very unwise?

If someone could give a couple of detailed examples of combat situations, the formulas, and how to apply them to a couple of specific attacks/defenses that would be HUGELY appreciated, and I think valuable for the entire community.

I know I'm a newbie, but figuring this out is driving me crazy and the manual is of extremely little help.

Thanks in advance.

2. Logs are located in "...Advanced Tactics\bin\logs\"

Thanks T_K, that helped me find it.