The Mitchell Report & Baseball Sims
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:33 pm
So I'm sure most of you have already read the news about the Mitchell Report. Nothing terribly surprising, although it does give credibility to the term "Steroid Era" which we can all tell our grandchildren about.
I'm not posting to talk about the politics of the issue. Instead, I'm wondering aloud if computer simulations like PureSim will ever be able to "re-model" the past 20 years and show us what might have happened had steroids and HGH never appeared on the scene?
On the one hand, it's easy to simply reduce the HR modifier, but then that penalizes the players who were clean. And what about the other factors such as greater durability, the ability to recover from injuries quicker, and longer careers? It's possible that we don't even fully understand all of the ways that the individual player stats of the past 20 years have been affected, but when we do, and we feel that we have a list of the players that benefited (cheated) the most, then maybe we'll see how the record books should look, rather than the tainted numbers we have today.
It will also be interesting to see if any experts will use baseball simulations to determine if certain teams benefited from the Steriod Era more than others. I'm thinking of something like an updated Pythagorean projecting that takes into account how many players were using steroids at the time.
In the end, I guess we just have to accept the numbers as they are, and move on. However, I know that there are a lot of people that like to play "what-if" with their baseball sims, and this seems like a natural question to ask...
I'm not posting to talk about the politics of the issue. Instead, I'm wondering aloud if computer simulations like PureSim will ever be able to "re-model" the past 20 years and show us what might have happened had steroids and HGH never appeared on the scene?
On the one hand, it's easy to simply reduce the HR modifier, but then that penalizes the players who were clean. And what about the other factors such as greater durability, the ability to recover from injuries quicker, and longer careers? It's possible that we don't even fully understand all of the ways that the individual player stats of the past 20 years have been affected, but when we do, and we feel that we have a list of the players that benefited (cheated) the most, then maybe we'll see how the record books should look, rather than the tainted numbers we have today.
It will also be interesting to see if any experts will use baseball simulations to determine if certain teams benefited from the Steriod Era more than others. I'm thinking of something like an updated Pythagorean projecting that takes into account how many players were using steroids at the time.
In the end, I guess we just have to accept the numbers as they are, and move on. However, I know that there are a lot of people that like to play "what-if" with their baseball sims, and this seems like a natural question to ask...