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Just wondering if in winter, regions have lower forage numbers? Or if this was considered?

Though it seems that if the region can support 50k civilians in the summer it should also be able to support 50k civilians in the winter (assuming relatively steady population), and this would lead you to believe that they have just as much food to be gradually siphoned off by the armies marching through whether winter or summer.

Thoughts?

I believe this is represented by bad weather (ie: snow or storm)

Answer yes. Its in the manual - "Harsh weather and winter turns (Nov-Mar) also reduce the Forage level". If you need to check anything there you will find that the search facility in the pdf file is really helpful and quick to use.

My observation: yes. Champagne went from about 40K to 70K, warm season to winter.