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I'd like to paraphrase what I think the rules say about waste in general:

-30+ provinces triggers waste calculations.

what provinces do not count toward the 30
-Core provinces with 5 courts
-Conquered provinces with 7 courts
-Protectorates regardless of their development level

what provinces do not suffer the effects of waste
-Core provinces with 5 culture or 7 courts
-Conquered/protectorate provinces with 7 culture or 9 courts
-Conquered/protectorate provinces with 7 courts suffer at 1/2 level

Is that right?

I think that's right but I'll leave it to someone more in the know to make a definitive statement. I have a question about what a conquered province is. Is Lorraine a "conquered province" for France because it has a little flag? It ought to be a national province.

That looks correct to me.