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The Shipwreck of Their Hopes: Good'Guyz (aka "The Allied") Side: Miller/Fish against the Evil.

Miller and your humble servant here decided to undertake a great crusade to liberate the soybean fields of China. After years of threat and dubious overseas investments, the Evil Japanese Empire, led by the no-less evil John 3rd and ny59giants of infamous fame (did I already point out they were THAT evil?) decided to go into a big rampage throughout Asia, and kick our sorry butts.

Britain, being the worst place on Earth to have a meal, has been able to resist Axis invasion so far, scaring possible invaders with mountains of pudding and green jelly. We are going to stand, together with the brave homeless Dutch (but beware, they have nothin' to lose then!) and the Australians-without-an-army-right-now (cuz it's so much fancier fighting and losing in Tobruk while the IJA is having a Tupperware meeting on your doorstep) under my enlightened command (but let me buy a new light first). Miller will play the cool guy, in blue uniform, that comes to the rescue of the cheap little bro who used to be its former colonizer. If this didn't sound cool enough yet, you've got to see what kind of toys he's bringing over, that's cute (I don't have as many toys as he has, but I have great cigars though, I don't care, although I hope he'll allow me to play with some).

We'll go through a better presentation later. Just be aware there isn't gonna be any kind of rest or mercy for the soybean thefts. Justice shall prevail!

Nice presentation, looking forward to it!! [:D]

Any high-strategy meetings yet? [;)]

Good luck Fishbed... You might want to share this adventure in a certain french forum we both know, I am sure some of the players over there will be interested...

Cool guy in a blue uniform[:D] I like that as I was in the Navy for 18 years. Despite my partners poo-pooing of his mighty empire, I am sure his forces will provide quite a distraction for the evil (yes they are very evil) empire. This is a good thing because I am sure it will take me a little while to clear the wreckage from pearl harbor and other places. We will break out our seabees and get to work right away because saving the day from evil is what we do[8|]. Looking forward to the game, now that I know which target I am. Know that I am not the master of words that fishbed is so all the fancy words get to come from him, I am the master of .

Also any advice to help the allies in this, especially yours truly[:D] is always welcome. I will post ideas and plan outlines but playing such an aggressive opponent means a different approach I believe than my normal play style, which is generally cautious.

Good luck you two. Certainly picked two aggressive opponents.
 
I´m looking forward to how this plays out.

Good luck to the "good guys!"  Watch out for Tahiti!

Well we didn't really pick them[:)] They just sort of hijacked us
One positive is that it looks like fishbed will have China, which is fine with me as China has always been the most confusing front for me to tackle, no matter which side I play

Good luck Fishbed !!
Best wishes ![:)]

Thanks mates, thanks Veji [;)]

Now back to the useful chatter: Miller, I wondered if I could post some propositions for home rules here? I would like to have your opinion. In fact most of them are hampering the Allied effort (but sometimes both sides, depending who's on the offensive and/or the defensive) but a number of them could affect you more than they affect me (aka everything that has to do with 4Es, as you obviously will have more of them than I do).

For instance, I'd be for limiting enormously night bombing (at least some usefulness for the phases of the moon...), and put some rules to troops bombing (for instance ban 4Es in ground attack role, keep it for 2Es and FBs, for the losses are just too great for now whenever we use them against mere troops in my opinion). I know it may make the thing a little harder, but I'd feel more comfortable, not exploiting something that I feel may be more of a weakness from the engine than something WAD... I'll post my suggestions here first before we submit those we may select to our distinguished foes, please feel free to comment and give advices...

No problem posting here first. As for house rules I will tell you I have limited experience into 1943, as all my opponents or myself ended up having problems that killed games. I have 2 going, latest is in June 42 and I am japan.
Limiting night bombing sounds good, although except for the AI my opponents have never used it much. I am sure that it is used later in the war[:D] by the allies. I have a feeling due to supply and logistic the enemy won't run amok, although with planning they can go far. I have a feeling they will try and cut off australia, don't know why but in my game as Japan I have tried India and it is tough, real tough[8|] 
 
Please feel free to bring up any house rules that would make the game fun and competitive, thats all I really strive for in these things. Oh by the way, where are you at? France. I am on east coast US

Fishbed,

As re: night bombers... I don't think there's a need to limit them. They are pretty useless and if you concentrate the FlAK and put up a few fighter squadrons you can really take a tithe of these night bomber runs and make them excessively costly compared to their benefit.



Now, I'm not reading your opponent's AAR since I'm going to give a bit of a psychological rundown here... I think psychology is going to be key to understanding your opponents.

1. John3rd.... The problem with John3rd is that he has narcissistically bought into the persona of the "most aggressive player out there" and "if its on the map, he'll invade it". That's the persona he chose to put out there and in the presenting he now has a pressure to live up to it. What's the problem with that you might ask? Simple he seeks action to the exclusion of all else even if such action isn't actually worthwhile. He equates action with aggression and aggression with good play. This is a patently absurd situation which may serve him well in a brutish contest but robs him of the nuance, subtlety and options which are necessary to become a good player. All of the above can be used against him.

I played him in the Battleground Gettysburg game a year or so ago and you might find it instructive to read that AAR in the appropriate forum. At the time the game began I had little idea what made him tick but by the time we had exchanged a dozen moves or so it was clear how he thought. I used that assessment against him throughout the rest of the game. If reading the AAR you should ignore my disastrous handling of the cavalry as it was my first game of the Civil War system for about 5 years and I'd forgotten how the cavalry really worked... This led to some costly losses before I began using them properly.

So, ignoring the cavalry what do you notice?
1. He tried a wide flanking manoeuvre which aimed for a dramatic victory but was not really innovative in itself. It was merely a more aggressive variant of history and, as such, eminently predictable. He isn't innovative but he does take history, make it a bit more aggressive and aim a base beyond what history aimed for.

2. When it became clear that I had anticipated this move he pushed on trusting to brute force to win through. He committed his reserves and, at the crucial time, when I had allowed his reserves to wear themselves out against a hilltop redoubt I counter-attacked with many weak units which I had hidden in full defilade and I ruptured his front.

3. Due to the weakness of Union forces on Day 1 in that game it wasn't possible to utterly win the battle on that day but after more costly fighting over ground which it was clear I could hold - fighting which cost him the men and time he could have used to outflank or form up a properly concentrated assault - he began pulling back.

We called the game at that time as it was clear that he wasn't going to achieve the Rebel's Day 1 front-line trace and I had gained the initiative. In essence he was on to a loser there.

He was aggressive and he pushed hard but he wasn't subtle in committing his reserves and when checked he didn't easily adopt an entire new OODA cycle. He became target-fixated and just shoved more men and materiel in to a grinding match in which his excellent troops were ground down at the same rate as my much more numerous and poorer quality troops. That sort of exchange is a guaranteed loss for the Confederates.

He didn't re-orient and he didn't take the time to make a decisive push, he throw forces in pell-mell.

He also was very laggardly in guarding his supply columns and artillery columns. I executed several ambushes with the couple of cavalry units which survived my initial mishandling and feel confident that had I known how to handly cavalry from the outset that I could have destroyed large portions of his supply columns, rendering any long battle logistically unwinnable.


2. ny59 giants... Economy, economy, economy. Logistics are all. He was appointed economics minister in a previous John3rd game and will have the same role in this game. A good player, not as aggressive as John3rd but much more likely to actually succeed as he will consider before leaping and not just snarl and leap.


How will they manage this game? Well, its all down to the psychology.

Ny59giants will get China, the Home Islands ( and probably the Kuriles if they go defensive in that area ) and the DEI. Those are the economic zones of importance and he will want to have them under his control - this means he takes responsibility for capturing them. In addition from mid-42 onwards the Japanese economy requires a lot of work and it would make sense that ny59giants will have that job. Since he'll be burdened with the economy it makes sense that he;ll have a relatively quiescent front. China, Home Islands and DEI + Burma should make a pretty quiescent front.

John3rd... Well, he'll get the Pacific and the navy. The exciting stuff which makes big bangs and gets to go on death rides.... The question here is simply in which strategic direction he will choose to over-extend... and make no mistake it will be an overextension ( unless you make egregious errors ).

Options for over-extension:
1. India - if ny59giants has the DEI, CHina and Burma then John3rd won't be interested in going for India. If he were going for India he'd take control of the DEI region. Since ny59giants will want to run the economy he'll want the DEI region and this will overrule any plans John3rd has for India.

Conclusion: India is safe. You may talk about strategy etc all you want but strategy is, in all but the rarest of individuals, the outward expression of their personality and experiences ( Only a few rare individuals are sufficiently trained to be able to detach and make strategic decisions irrespective of their base personality --- this trainable ability lay at the core of the Prussian staff model and was why it was so succesful in ensuring cohesion between units with commanders of wildly differing temperaments... the key wasn't the commanders but the fact that their chiefs of staff were staff-trained and could thus be relied to approach issues the same way and come up with mutually cohesive albeit independently-arrived at solutions ). The mix of personalities on the other team makes India perfectly safe so long as ny59giants is in charge of the economy and DEI. Since it is almost unthinkable he won't be in charge of the economy and being in charge of the economy means being in charge of the most quiescent front from mid-42 onwards and ensuring the capture of the DEI post-haste it is almost unthinkable he won't be in charge of the DEI/vs the Commonwealth fronts.

So, India's safe. Your strategic indicator should be the division of regions which you should easily be able to pick up by email conversation within the first week of play. I'd rate the division of responsibilities I've outlined above as being better than 95% correct. I really would be surprised if they didn't divide things this way, even if they don't consciously think of the reasons behind it in the manner I've outlined.


2. Aleutians - It isn't really flashy enough for John3rd and if ny59giants got to defend the Kuriles he wouldn't bother to make a major move into the Aleutians. Build up the Aleutians a little just to protect against them invading something "just because it is empty" but apart from that the Aleutians should be safe.


3. Pearl Harbour - John3rd might like to invade it but 2 things argue against it:
a) it is a single solitary target. It isn't a huge string of bases he can take and conduct a long, sexy campaign out of. Once he takes the neighbouring islands he builds up the bomber bases and bombs PH into oblivion before landing troops at horrendous cost in the face of the CD guns. That sort of stolidity and loss without flashiness is anathema to John3rd's soul... This is why I refer to his love of being seen to be active and aggressive as a major flaw and not a positive... It is great to be aggressive if you channel that and use it to further rationally arrived at strategic goals. It is NOT good to let the need for action dictate operations as JOhn3rd does.

b) He'll want a land war. In a land war he'll get to beat up on your army units routinely and massively. John3rd is an egoist ( that's fine, we all fall somewhere on the various spectra of personality ). If you look at his previous AARs they were replete with how he managed to beat up on his enemy and how he was going to do x, y or z to them and they'd be unable to resist. There was a fair bit of gloating and self-aggrandisement ( again, fine, a bit of gloating in game-pplaying is hardly the largest of sins [:)] ) BUT you have to recognise that that sort of thing isn't optional. It is a key psychological imperative to the egoist. He NEEDS an ongoing land war in which he gets to take large numbers of bases and beat your ground forces for weeks and months at a time. Hawaii doesn't offer him the ability to show his self-perceived superiority as a strategist.

Conclusion: Hawaii simply doesn't provide him with the psychological imperatives he'll be looking for in his "comeback game". Strategically Hawaii is a fine target but JOhn3rd is the sort of player who strings lots of hyperactive operations together and calls that a strategic offensive as opposed to someone who puts in a well-reasoned strategic offensive plan and pursues it aggressively without ever letting the aggression overrule him or lead him into operations which act against his strategic goals.


So, land war --- CONUSA, Soviet Union or Oz/Nz.

CONUSA and Soviet Union --- Those are both just so insane that ny59giants can be relied upon to talk him out of both on logistical grounds.

That leaves Oz/Nz. He can approach Oz from two strategic directions ( using the old Soviet concept of strategic directions here and with the rigid meaning that comes with that usage ), through the DEI or from the East.

1. Via the DEI.
I think this is unlikely as going through the DEI would mean transitting ny59giants' strategic area of operations. In addition taking Darwin etc isn't really flashy or psychologically satiative for the reasons I've outline above. He could hook out far west and land at Perth etc. That's a smart move but I think that transitting the DEI makes that less likely as does the relative lack of bases to capture - not very flashy. I think they WILL take Darwin etc but this will NOT be his main thrust, it will simply be a safeguarding of the DEI and will likely be carried out by ny59giants.


2. Via the Rabaul/PM/Noumea axis.
Well if he comes in from the east he'll land in the north-east and march southwards. This isn't the best strategic choice but it will yield him the most ground conflict and feed his need for victories - since your Oz troops are so inexperienced etc. He should try to take all of eastern and southern Oz leaving you bottled up around Perth with only a single rail line to advance down.

Strategic indicators: If he takes Rabaul and PM but doesn't appear to be exploiting to Noumea then he's going straight for north-eastern Oz. Expect landings there before the end of January. If he starts moving towards Noumea then he'll be taking NZ. I don't expect him to do that. Nz is strategically and egoistically less satisfying for him.




So, my bet:
ny59giants will carefully and capably take out the DEI with well-covered invasions. He will insist on hitting your subs in Manilla. John will insist on hitting Hawaii. End result, KB will be split - John3rd also can't avoid splitting KB even when playing by himself... He has so many operations he wants to carry out that he can't sequence them and thus will attempt to cover them all by spreading his forces too thinly to be effective.

John3rd will take Rabaul ASAP with significant forces. He'll commit major overkill because Rabaul is critical to his plans. He will then either extend down the Solomons or onto Port Moresby. I am betting it'll be PM. If he goes for PM by the end of December/beginning of January then he WILL be invading Oz by the end of January 1942. Don't doubt it, that's just what his psychology dictates.

I think he'll land in the north-east and then begin marching down south and will continue until he has taken southern and eastern Oz. Probably ny59 will take Darwin at some stage. Perth will probably be left alone as he;'ll want to use forces from Oz to bolster his Pacific ambitions next - I won't go into where he'd like to go there as you should be able to stop him in Oz.


What I would do in this situation? Strip northern and western Oz. Send everything west and south of Brisbane to Brisbane. Do NOT reinforce north of Brisbane. You want to keep him happy, dumb and target-fixated for as long as possible. Don't give him any reasons to question his conclusions and he will oblige you by failing to re-run his strategic appreciation. Elsewhere load up everything from India that can move and ship it to Oz. Keep it as your reserve army. John3rd is ambitious and will beancount your forces. He'll check your committments and when he figures you've committed everything you have in Oz he'll commit his reserve. When he does this you should FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE GAME unleash your British, Indian and US divisions/armoured regiments. That will break the back of his ground committment and has the potential for eradicating his forces from Oz.

To do this you'll need to hold your reserve deep, far beyond where he would tactically bomb it and you'll need to give up most of northern and eastern Oz. That's fine though, let him gain ground, crow and get psychologically comfortable in the place he prefers - that place where he and his forum readers heap plaudits on him for being "the most aggressive player of the game". Then, let him see what he has been waiting for, the committment of your last mobile forces in the region. He will then commit his reserves, suck them in and then hammer him with your own, significantly larger reserve forces, including as many armour regiments as you can buy out and ship over. This is, essentially, just an updated version of what I did to him in the Gettysburg game. I let him launch an attack, overcome a redoubt, begin to sniff victory and then I smashed an entire sector in with hidden reserves he hadn't previously seen. If you update that basic plan you won't go too far wrong.

By 31st December you should be able to see whether his axis is Rabaul + PM or Rabaul + Solomons and you should be sure that ny59giants has the DEI and isn't being ueber-quick.


I've played him in a PBEM and his psychology is also lighthouse-clear in his previous AARs. If he goes for Rabaul + PM by the end of December then he's going to try to take Oz by coup de main--- probably with the idea of taking Manilla quickly and then shipping the divisions from there south to bolster the initial beachhead he will have made in Oz with the odds and ends he has scraped up.


As for ny59giants. He's not as flashy but he won't take as many losses and he won't simply engage in wasteful action for action's sake. If this is a long game then ny59giants will most definitely be the most difficult opponent. John3rd can be relied to implode if given sufficient opportunity. When you do go over onto the offensive you should seek to advance through territory defended by John3rd and engage in "teasing attacks" showing forces just tantalisingly out of reach. He won't be able to resist going after you and he won't learn.

In my game vs Damian I used to be able to show CVs and transports etc and tease him with an incipient attack. He would then attack and lose hordes of ships and planes as they ran into a buzzsaw of a trap I'd created from 2nd echelon bases. After a few such incidents Damian has learned and recently turned down several opportunities for decisive battles. John3rd will fall for such teasing and should keep falling for it until the point where his navy is impotent is reached. That'd be the strategic and operational nous of how I'd go after him.

Good luck!

Lulling him into making a super aggressive move where you want him to certainly is a great strategy.

If he is as aggressive as you say, setting up several early naval and CV ambushes will turn the War quickly. Japs are very strong, but once they over extend, especially if he divides his fleet, you will score big victories.

Going too fast as the Jap player is extremely dangerous against a determined Allied foe. You have a huge collective fleet between Columbo, Singapore, Manila, and DEI. If he outraces his land based air, a couple CVL's aint gonna cut a massive allied naval counterthrust. Aggregate it and counterstrike with land based air support when he tries to go straight for Palenbang or Batavia or Balikpan. You'll make him wish he hadn't. And if he plays a more covered approach, you still have the fleet assembled for an approriate occasion.

In the open sea, I would chosse one or two of a couple aggregation points, like Noumea or Fiji or American Samoa, or the like. Any place with multiple airfields to concentrate forces is ideal and forward deploy some major portion of the remaining fleets including CV's. Bulk it up with engineers, bases, ships and planes...and wait for him to get there.

I would not worry about Pearl. I've yet to hear of anyone who has managed to take it against a smart defender. If he decides to come, you are so much the better for it. Put a few more AA's there, a couple more CD's, build up the fort and port...and you are golden. Builing one of the other bases up as a backup isnt a bad idea either.

Please keep us informed...

I don't think you're going to see the forces going for Palembang etc outrunning their air cover etc. ny59giants will be careful.

As to John3rd. I don't think it'll come down to lulling him into anything. He'll charge headlong into it and give Fishbed and Miller the opportunity to let an opponent use their own initiative to race headlong into a huge trap, a nicely skillful piece of work if they pull it off.

Nemo, you just said in alot more words what I was thinking[:D] I am generally a very conservative player (which makes me a better allied player IMHO) and can wait out the Japanese attacks, as long as I can get a feel for where they are coming. I figured John to go for Oz, alot of aggressive players do. Actually playing the AI on hard is alot like playing John[;)] as it will go hell bent after what it wants. But the AI gets extra stuff John doesn't so I am sure I can make him want to come after me and then burn him up with attrition. This mod will make things a little more dicey, as Japan gets more stuff to attack with, but in the end as long as I don't make any super big mistakes (this is where Fishbed comes in[:)], with good advice) we will do fine.

Lock and load Amiral Nimitz...and good hunting.

I am going to read all this. Thanks for the comments Nemo, you sure look to have some experience with my two adversaries [:D]

End result, KB will be split - John3rd also can't avoid splitting KB even when playing by himself... He has so many operations he wants to carry out that he can't sequence them and thus will attempt to cover them all by spreading his forces too thinly to be effective.

Biggest issue with the scenario right now is that there's hardly any KB splitting risk if there's 8 uber-CVs out there: split it, they still are a wonderful foe to be reckoned with.
DEI will be toasted very quickly, land aviation has no chance against such a foe. We will probably make a fighting withdrawal there: my air line of defense shall be in Burma and in India, and I will concentrate on his land air.

I was thinking that way as well, from the other thread where this mod is being played, there are alot of Jap carriers running around, so 2 KB's are probably what we will be facing. You will have to let me know what air assets you may want sent to your Indian theater if you need them. Despite nemo's odds, you never know for sure what the other side will do until the shooting starts.

My naval plan when it comes to 1942 is either to rebase the RN out of reach or leave some of its units to you, especially if we have to fight for Australia. They just can't be expected to win anything against 4 big CVs, although I still need them to be a fleet in being in order to keep him honest in the area.

True, wonder where they will be safe if he comes after OZ and has up to 8 carriers to use[:D] Might have to base somewhere east of OZ after I build up a suitable base.