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And so begins my second AE PBEM against former "Basejumping" fan The Lone
Gunman. I'm very excited to get back to the game after a few months off. Hopefully we'll do well for the Emperor again.

The first turn is already away to my esteemed opponent (who FYI is requested not to peruse this thread).

House Rules

Scenario 1
Must pay PPs to cross national boundaries
No new Allied TFs on turn 1
Existing Allied TFs may move on Turn 1 (including Force Z)
Only one Japanese port attack on Turn 1
Altitude limited by date: 20K through 8/31/42, 25K through 12/31/42, 30K in 1943, anything goes 1944 and later
No Allied strategic bombing of former Allied territory until 1943
No Japanese strategic bombing in China ever
Invasions only in base hexes
Avoid gamey moves generally

What we did differently on Dec 7:

Invade both Jolo and Davao
More aggressive turn 1 air attacks on Luzon and Singapore airfields
Invade Sambas on Turn 1 with intent of seizing Sinkawang (Jolo, Sinkawang and Davao will quickly host Air HQs and Netties, something we didn't do well the first time around)

What we stuck with from last game:

Main 25th Army landings at Pattani (no Mersing gambit)
KB will strike Pearl with Vals on airfield attack to hit P40s and Catalinas
Guam invasion will take Rabaul instead
Tarawa and Wake invasions combined
Makin invasion will seize Makin, reload, and take Tarawa

First real update to come as soon as the first turn is run. I imagine it will take LG a few days to get his 12/7/41 orders done.

Cribtop HQ Grand Strategy

We convene a meeting of the Supreme War Council in a bit of a quandary. In our first conflict the goal was mainly not to embarrass the Emperor with our rookie skills. Although short, the Basejumping PBEM taught us a lot about tactics, strategy, logistics and the importance of the "tail" troops such as Air HQs, base forces, AA, etc. Indeed, we were behind schedule in Burma and suffered setbacks in 16th Army AO in large part due to a tendency to rush forward combat elements without bringing forward logistical support. It is for this reason we plan on quickly seizing Sinkawang, Jolo and Davao. This "string of pearls" will be taken and reinforced with Air HQs and torpedo enabled Netties in order to control the air and allow deeper penetrations with less risk. In short, these bases will allow us to shape the battle space to our liking.

Of course, several elements of Basejumping doctrine, such as fleet dispositions, chain invasions and, in the end, CV operations, went very well indeed. Cribtop HQ believes that after our victory over the British fleet we would have taken Java easily and isolated the large enemy garrison on Timor.

However, these tactical and operational lessons do not a Grand Strategy make. This is our quandary - what is our objective in this war? We will discuss our options in turn and would invite feedback. Increased experience has me willing to be more aggressive, so long as we remember this is Scenario 1 and only my second PBEM.

Seize Resources

Many JFBs seek to maximize industrial resources by capturing as many centers of production as possible. This is logical but IMHO not an end in itself, especially when one considers that seizure of standard Phase I objectives results in capture of substantial oil, HI and resource centers. You can never have enough, but industry alone is not decisive.

Auto-Victory

Auto-victory is a great feather in the cap, but is a little hollow and frankly may be unachievable in Scenario 1 anyway. We will look at the map with VPs in mind, but auto-victory is not our primary objective.

Defining Victory

So what is victory in a game that is almost impossible for Japan to win in a traditional sense? Each JFB probably defines victory in his or her own way (cool that we know there is at least one female JFB on the boards - a shout out to Graffin Zeppelin, the most frequent poster on my prior AAR). We are not used to this exercise and frankly suggestions are welcome. At the moment we are leaning towards attempting auto-victory but really with an idea to try to achieve serial defeats of the Allied navies in such a manner that we delay the inevitable as long and as gloriously as possible.

This seems a little vague, so we will be more precise. It is our hope to defeat the 1942 CV forces of the USN and Royal Navies decisively enough that the enemy must wait until arrival of his 1943 reinforcements, at which point he will face an expanded KB with hordes of trained pilots and LBA to attempt a Cap&Gown style battle or two even late in the game. That was an epic victory and we'd be thrilled with half the results of the now famous Battle of Ponape.

Even this limited objective is a tall order, but it fails to meet the traditional maxims of war - strike hard at the decisive point to achieve final victory. I suppose all of this musing is my own existential realization of my JFB mortality. In the Basejumping AAR I was so new that my standards were low - perform well enough for the old salts to say "Not bad, newbie." Now, as I plan for PBEM number two, the difficulties of the Imperial position are sinking in. The fact that I find no satisfactory solution to this strategic problem is reflective of historical reality more than anything else.

So, gentle readers, how should we define victory, especially after the hopefully successful conclusion of Phase I?

A few abbreviations I use commonly. I may add to this list as we move forward.

KB - self explanatory, Kido Butai

KBL - my shorthand for what many players call Mini-KB

MKB - Mega KB, the force created when KB and KBL operate together

SCTF - a surface combat task force, SAG in modern parlance

LCTF - a type of light SCTF, usually 3CL and 6DD, that we determined is very effective at chasing off or hunting down PT boats and other light combatants

Air Division or Air Flotilla - a new doctrine, refers not just to the HQ itself but the up to six air battalions and/or companies plus at least 3 AA units that will operate together to ensure good support of major ground or sea operations. In other words, we will make sure that the invasion of Burma has a specific group of base force and AA units that are semi-permanently and informally attached to the 3rd Air Division HQ.

Torpedo enabled - a base that can draw on an air or command HQ to arm strike a/c with torpedoes.

Chain Invasions - Early in Phase I, we often load multiple amphibious TFs and invade multiple targets in sequence covered by a powerful SCTF, an LCTF, an ASW TF and usually KB or at least strong LBA. This is seen as the best early war balance between operational speed while the Allies are weak and force protection. We usually invade the base furthest from safety first and then march back toward home waters.

Dud or duds - a shorthand for a sub attack that hits but does not explode, e.g. "Seawolf duds on a TK near Borneo."

DA = Deliberate Attack

SA = Shock Attack

BA = Bombardment Attack

Casualties. We list the enemy's casualties first, then ours. If a ground battle, we put squads destroyed in parentheses. For example: "DA takes base X with 10:1 odds, casualties 2300(100) vs 150(10)."

Turn 1 has arrived! Will run it tonight. The Emperor expects every man to do his duty unto death.

Ok, the 12/7 turn is in the books! Full recap tomorrow, but here are some quick hits:

Air

The plan was to smash as many Allied planes on the ground and in the air as possible. Execution was achieved by launching the KB Vals on Airfield attack and by throwing everything that could fly on Takao against Clark, Iba and Cabanatuan. The latter bases were swept by Zeros and hit by the small IJAAF forces available, while Clark was swept twice and bombed by the IJNAF. The point of the smaller raids was to dilute and draw out CAP to hit them hard. In brief, the plan worked. Total losses in the air and on the ground for the Allies amounted to 138, heavily weighted to P40s, Catalinas, and even a few of the hated B-17s. Banzai! Screenie of the aircraft losses intel report below:



Tora! Tora! Tora!

The PH strike appeared to be above average in effectiveness. We even hit BB Maryland with a mini-sub launched torp. All BBs, 1CA and 3CL were damaged, at least 2 DDs were put in sinking condition. Cribtop Intel estimates that up to four of the BBs will sink, with an outside shot at sinking five or six. The CA San Fransciso is probably a goner or a longtime cripple, which is a nice bonus. Any BBs that survive will require major yard time. Below is an excerpt of the Combat report (I don't usually post combat reports, but this is a rare exception as it's the best way to convey the info):

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Midget Sub attack inside harbor of Pearl Harbor!!!

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-22

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Torpedo hits 1





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 84
B5N2 Kate x 117
D3A1 Val x 135



Allied aircraft
P-40B Warhawk x 8


Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 6 destroyed, 24 damaged
D3A1 Val: 5 destroyed, 27 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Warhawk: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 5 destroyed on ground
PBY-5 Catalina: 16 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 4 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 3 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 4 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
BB Nevada, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Dale, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB California, Torpedo hits 6, heavy damage
DD Mugford, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Bagley, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
BB Maryland, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Downes, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
CL Detroit, Torpedo hits 1


Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Airbase hits 25
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 111
Port hits 9
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 1

Afternoon Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 56
B5N2 Kate x 27



Allied aircraft
P-36A Mohawk x 3
P-40B Warhawk x 11
F4F-3 Wildcat x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 5 destroyed, 14 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 3 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Pennsylvania, Torpedo hits 2
BB Maryland, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
BB Arizona, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Torpedo hits 1
CA San Francisco, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Aylwin, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Invasions Galore

We invaded or landed at Chumphon, Singora, Pattani, Kota Bharu, Sambas, Jolo, Davao, Laoag, and Aparri. The latter two bases were seized by paratroops from Formosa to secure them asap while the amphibious forces were still wading onto the beaches. The more exposed invasions are all ashore and the ships will hightail it overnight except for a few kamikaze supply ships.

Enemy activity consisted solely of a large strike on the Kota Bharu fleet by the RAF and small strikes at Kota Bharu and Sambas by Dutch planes. None of these strikes scored hits except on a few Nates over Kota.

Very happy to be back in the fight. More to come.

Dec 7, 1941

As usual, we will go by AO. Note that I move 4th Fleet HQ to the Marshalls, so that is the 4th Fleet AO in Crib-World.

4th Fleet

The results of the PH strike are set out above. Cribtop HQ has decided to heed Mike's advice and withdraw KB towards Wake rather than stick around for a second day. In the end the pilots are worth more than making sure we sink one or two more slow, crippled BBs. We may get cute and swing through the neighborhood again to try to catch the USN later on, however.

We will send two sub groups to the West Coast. The remainder will head for other AOs. Two of the mini-sub carriers will be assigned to deliver minis as defensive weapons to advance bases. We got HMS Warspite in our last game with this method, and it seems the only useful way to employ minis, our good fortune at Pearl notwithstanding.

SE Fleet

Men and ships are en route to Truk. We are going to try to commit both 4th Division and 20th Division (once bought out of Korea Army) to this AO. Two Divs plus the various Nav Gd and SNLF should be enough to seize Phase I objectives, including Pt Moresby and Noumea.

16th Army

We will commit 21st Div and 38th Div (once Hong Kong falls) to the eastern DEI. Quick seizure up to the Makassar-Kendari-Ambon line is the goal. If all is going well we may go for a Q-Ball style early Java invasion, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. 21st Air Flotilla and 11th Air Fleet are already loaded and earmarked for Jolo and Davao to torpedo enable these bases.

Jolo may be interesting. Search planes from KBL spotted what appear to be Houston and that damn Boise lurking NE of Zamboanga. Cribtop HQ believes LG will make a run on Jolo hoping to catch our invasion transports. They are unloaded and heading for Dodge but he doesn't know that. We diverted the minelaying sub mission from the channel near Palawan to Jolo to provide some bombardment defense, and will have KBL lurking in range of Jolo to try to catch them. We consider detaching the 3 CAs that start with KBL to lay in wait. However, we are worried that if the USN sprints in everything it has we could be in for a fair fight, which is not good for the IJN. Hmmm.... What do y'all think? (y'all is a word in Texas).

14th Army

The Laoag and Aparri invasions went well. We expect PTs tonight and will be ready. The small paras will be flown back to Formosa and then shipped out to SE Fleet, where they can be very useful. Cribtop HQ is hoping to get away with using only 16th & 48th Divs plus 65th Bde in Luzon as this will allow 21st Div to move into the 16th Army AO as planned. The Atimonan invasion is loaded and will sortie once the BBs arrive from the Home Islands to cover.

We will keep up the pressure on Clark to obtain air supremacy in the PI asap.

25th Army

Sambas invasion fleet will retire as planned. We will move in some Oscars to provide a better LRCAP at Kota Bharu. Otherwise it's all about finishing the ongoing landings in Malaya. 23rd Air Flotilla will be put on an FT TF in a few days. We will run them into Sinkawang as soon as the base falls to get Ms. Betty into the waters around Singers. Cribtop HQ is really hoping for dividends here as far as preventing either reinforcement or evacuation of Singapore and keeping the enemy TKs from stealing "our" oil from Palembang.

15th Army

Just getting started. As mentioned, the plan is to establish bases at Rahaeng and Chiang Mai to cover the ground offensive, thus correcting a Basejumping error. Troops are moving to Bangkok and will slog through the Burmese border soon. Royal Thai Army has been ordered to re-position on the country's western frontier.

Enemy

We have no read on TheLoneGunman's style as of yet. Cribtop Intel will be watching his early moves to try to divine his intentions. LG read our prior AAR (he has agreed to avoid refreshing his memory by re-reading it however). Hopefully the notably different actions we took on turn 1 will jar his expectations a bit - his latest e-mail seems to confirm this, but PBEM e-mails are often an exercise in friendly PsyOps, so who knows?

Other

As we did in the prior PBEM, we will provide an economic summary at the first of each month and a strategic summary as needed but at least by the 15th of each month beginning in January 1942.

Looking forward to this, Cribtop.  Is PDU on or off?
 

Glad to see you got a game going again, I had the shakes when I didn't get a turn in the inbox for 2 whole days, imagine that, 2 WHOLE days, the horror...

It was a tough couple of months, Arnhem. Mike, PDU is on.

Great to have you both aboard! Should we linger at Pearl another day or move on?

Tough call on Pearl.  Will the extra BBs you sink be worth the pilot losses?  Even though you'll get lots of trained pilots over time, none will be as good as those you will lose if you hang around another day.  I've also found that very few damaged BBs survive if they take that damage in the middle of the Pacific.  I usually welcome them to come out to visit, say Wake.  Be ready to ambush them on the way home.
 
I wouldn't hang around.

Victory for the JFB?

Having fun expanding and having fun in a long and bloody defense of said expansions.

When there's not much afloat of the IJA and the enemy is landing in Tokyo bay, it could be the moment to cede victory to your opponent.

Bottom line: having fun is the victory.

That's about the way I see it, d0mbo! Should be a fun ride. From a roleplaying perspective I envision trying to force a negotiated solution that is always one more victory away...

Going to be watching how you choose to develop your air arm.  Great first day.  Keep it going.
 

Thanks, Pax. You get a good feeling when the first thing to happen is a successful mini-sub attack. [&o]

RE our air arm, for the moment we have established significant training bases, four each in Manchukuo and the Home Islands. As for planes, on 12/7 the groups from Zuiho and Hosho upgraded from Claudes and Jeans, becoming the first use of PDU. Taiyo will soon pay visits to Truk and the Marshalls to ferry more Claudes back to Japan for upgrade. Various bases are planned to build to lvl 7 airfields for the express purpose of allowing upgrades in the field. Lots more decisions to make, but we have already begun.

No turn today as LG is dealing with the reality of the Allied turn 2, which is the first turn on which he can form task forces.

In the interim, here's an excerpt from his AAR he shared with me via e-mail about the Pearl Harbor strike:

------------------------------
I will offer you a small quote from my AAR regarding luck:

"The Jap Ordnance Officer must have had sushi for breakfast, because he packed
most of the enemy Kates full of fish."

In ALL of my games, I've NEVER had the amount of torpedoes be so high. Obviously
the game's code is far more complex than we can possibly imagine and recognizes
a need to punish players for hubris.
------------------------------

Sounds like we delivered a strong blow to the future USN bombardment fleet! [&o]

Our orders for Dec 8 include a speed run by KB to take up position 10 hexes SW of PH. It probably won't amount to much but if LG is careless with his CVs or flees Pearl to the south fearing a second day's attacks we may put the hammer down.

Just a quick note to tell you all that LG had to work part of this weekend and thus that the turn has been delayed. We hope to get it this evening or early tomorrow.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Just a quick note to tell you all that LG had to work part of this weekend and thus that the turn has been delayed.

Commiserate with LG ... month end and so the same for me ....

Dec 8, 1941

A dee-licious turn...

Subs

I-171 misses a DMS and takes a DC hit for her trouble. She'll probably survive but is limping back to Kwaj. KXI misses a PB in the Kota Bharu invasion TF.

Saga of the Giyu Maru. This brave little xAK had quite a day. Left behind at Sambas to offload supplies, she successfully evades an unspecified surface threat in the night phase and then bumps into SS O16 at dawn. The sub attacks on the surface and the Giyu amazingly draws first blood with a deck gun. The Dutch sub dives under the waves, leaving the merchie safe to escape towards Cam Ranh Bay. Banzai! [:)]

Something Allied hits a mine, presumably a little present left by our subs at either Bataan, Toboali or Jolo.

4th Fleet

KB comes up empty and sets course for Wake. An enemy TF is spotted approaching Wake from the East. Is this the Lexington? If so we may get between her and Pearl in a day or two.

Makin is invaded and taken by SA (see updated abbreviations post above).

SE Fleet

Not a lot other than TFs moving towards Truk, Rabaul and northern NG invasion sites. One of our two main surface fleets, the South Seas Fleet, sorties from Kure with 3 BBs. This force will base at Truk long term.

14th Army

We are very surprised that enemy PTs don't hit Laoag or Aparri. The Laoag first wave is ashore and the ships are ordered to Pescadores to pick up more troops. The Aparri TF needs another turn to offload supplies. A small invasion seizes Batan Island for use as a recon and ASW base.

Air attacks on Manila's port come up empty as LG has wisely vacated the premises. We do shoot down a lot of USAAF fighters for our trouble, however. In fact, air losses for the turn are 43:10 in our favor, with 26 P-40s destroyed per the Intel screen. Banzai! Back to Clark tomorrow.

16th Army

Davao and Jolo fall. Davao is taken by a 77:1 attack, casualties 243(15) vs 0(0), using troops from the invasion originally aimed at Legaspi. Also at Davao, we send the two CS that begin the game loaded with part of the Legaspi invasion force, along with a DD, back to Babeldoab for safety while the rest of the invasion TF unloads supplies. The departing CS TF runs into and badly damages an enemy xAKL. The advent of this combat caused some panic at Cribtop HQ, as we feared it was That Damn Boise come for a replay of the Davao disaster that occurred in my first AAR. More on the world's most dangerous CL in a moment. [;)]

As you may recall, we set up KBL in range of Jolo anticipating a visit from enemy surface assets fleeing the PI. LG does not attack Jolo but the trap still works! Over the AM and PM phases we spot both CA Houston and That Damn Boise moving towards Balikpapan SW of Jolo. Several air attacks and six! torpedoes into each ship later, they BOTH are confirmed sunk by our Kate pilots leaving the scene of the crime. Ban-F'n-Zai!!!!! [&o][&o]




This result is a huge shot in the arm for our morale, a blow to the enemy's spirits, and a material reduction in his surface combat power in the DEI. Hopefully this loss will make LG more cautious in the future and allow our Phase I invasions to proceed quickly. We won't count on it, but this victory can't hurt.

CVL Ryujo is low on torps and will retire to Babeldoab, leaving 3CA and 3DD to harass the enemy and to escort an Air HQ to Jolo and invasions of Manado and Ternate. Meanwhile, Zuiho and Hosho are heading to Babel to create a more capable KBL.

25th Army

We bomb Kuantan with the IJAAF, hitting several enemy medium bombers on the ground. Enemy raids against Kota Bharu are a mess, with the fighters losing contact with the strike in bad weather. This leaves two attacks worth of Blenheims unprotected and under attack by Oscars and Nates. Enemy losses are heavy and both raids turn back before dropping their payloads.

DA at Sambas takes the base with 100:1 odds. The Dutch base force there surrenders. Interestingly, the Sambas cover SCTF intercepts and sinks xAKL Shinai with troops on board, probably LG trying to pull a fragment from Sambas or Kuching.

DA at Kota Bharu takes the base with 17:1 odds, casualties 2292(216) vs 210(0). We have two regiments and an armored unit ready to exploit towards Temuloh.

At Singora and Pattani we have almost finished unloading troops. The non-combat units, primarily air battalions and AA units, will move into the Kota Bharu hex and begin offloading tomorrow. This will allow much of the IJAAF to re-base to Kota soon for use in the rest of the Malaya campaign.

15th Army

We have unloaded at Chumphon and are moving to capture Victoria Point. We continue to move troops into position to both invade Burma and establish air bases in Thailand.

China

DA at Pengpu drives an enemy corps over the river with 47:1 odds, casualties 735(62) vs 34(1). We note that LG is moving troops into the rough hex just east of Chengchow. This will make it somewhat harder to assemble our armies as it blocks the rail line to Kaifeng. However, LG appears to be committing three LCUs to the hex, and these are troops that cannot assist with the defense of Chengchow itself. Interesting.

We abandon Ichang successfully. Don't tell the Emperor!

Dec 9, 1941

4th Fleet

No sign of the enemy TF near Wake, but KB continues to move to place herself between their last location and Pearl Harbor in case it was the Lex. Tracker says that the Tarawa Invasion TF was spotted by enemy planes, although neither the TF nor the Ops Report indicate anything untoward. We consider withdrawing but in the end decide to continue loading at Makin for the attack on Tarawa.

SE Fleet

The cruisers should arrive at Truk tomorrow or the next day. We are loading forces for a chain invasion of Tulagi, Munda Point, Shortlands and Kavieng. We have also decided to position Combined Fleet at Rabaul while SE Fleet is at Truk. A bit ahistorical but Combined Fleet's 9 hex range means that bases from Munda to Lae will be torpedo enabled, and that's too juicy to pass up.

14th Army

Most of what little action occurs today is in this AO. We sweep and bomb Clark. Only seven enemy fighters are on CAP, three are shot down. One raid of Bettys goes in unescorted but there is no CAP left to stop the bombers. We destroy a few Allied aircraft on the ground and damage a B-17. LG counters with a B-17 raid on Aparri. We just moved a Nate Sentai to the base, and they do pretty well, chasing off the enemy fighters and scratching the paint of several B-17s without loss. The two raids on the airfield, one of which appears to originate from Cagayan, are ineffective. An unco-ordinated sweep of P-40s then comes in but our Nates again suffer no losses. The attacks on Aparri are interesting, IMHO LG would be better off pulling the B-17s out of Luzon before our raids on Clark pin too many to the field for eventual destruction.

Meanwhile, enemy PTs, which apparently include the MTBs from Hong Kong, hit Laoag one day too late. The Japanese ships have retired on Pescadores and Takao, where the Luzon second wave is already loading. We will send an LCTF into Laoag in case the PTs decide to stick around. The Atimonan Invasion is about halfway to its target.

On the ground in Luzon LG appears to be heading for Clark and Bataan, a logical choice.

16th Army

We are unloading supplies at Jolo and Davao. The Manado and Ternate invasions, plus a TF carrying an Air HQ for Jolo, are moving to a rendezvous point near the Palawan/Borneo channel. 3 CAs and 3 DDs formerly a part of KBL's escort are moving to meet them and on the way sink xAKL Montanes. The two new CVLs heading to join KBL are about halfway to Babel, while Ryujo is close enough to Babel that we deem her safe from surface attack.

25th Army

The brave Giyu Maru, now escorted by a lone PB, returns to Sambas and begins unloading. The rest of the Sambas force is retiring on Cam Ranh Bay, while the Cover Force heads to Saigon. They will serve as an FT TF to deploy the Air HQ to Sinkawang once it falls. Our mine laying subs are all set to return to Saigon where they will be formed into a Sub supply TF to try to keep Sinkawang supplied.

We continue to unload lots of units and supplies at Singora, Pattani and Kota Bharu. The enemy sends two sweeps of Buffalos from Georgetown which tangle with Oscars and Nates on CAP. Total losses favor us, 2:0 at least. It seems like LG is using Georgetown as a fighter base. Also interesting. He seems to be in full retreat towards Singers, so Cribtop Intel assumes this is more of a rear guard action. No enemy bombers fly to Kota today, whether by design or bad weather is unknown.

15th Army

We are continuing to move into position, with emphasis on establishing forward air bases as mentioned.

China

Troops are starting to pour into Kaifeng for the jump off towards Chengchow. However, we plan to use two Divisions to envelop the enemy from the south. LG continues to move units into the hex east of Chengchow. BA there shows 172 AV with more to come. We are happy to pin these forces in place with one Independent Brigade while we assault around the City to the south and southeast. Still, LG seems more active in the ground game than DSwain, our former opponent.

Other

An ACM strikes a mine at Nagasaki/Sasebo. One of ours or one of theirs? We will send a local MSW TF to find out. We are also mining Tshushima to close off the Sea of Japan to enemy subs. We have 4,109 pilots in training, monthly cost in HI will be 20,545.

Analysis

Time for a little psychology by Cribtop Intel. We had decent luck divining DSwain's style last PBEM, so we want to try to listen to what LG's early moves tell us. So far, he has been less aggressive than many AFBs with surface assets, despite opportunities at Sambas, Jolo or even Davao. He seems to be fighting in place with some air assets in the PI and DEI, rather than move, for example, the B-17s out of Luzon to concentrate on delaying the race to Singapore. That said, our assessment is that LG's style will evolve over time. This is because he usually plays Japan. Thus we estimate that for now his unfamiliarity with the Allied OOB and options are swamping his normal tendencies, whatever those may be. As mentioned above, LG has immediately shown sophistication in movement of his LCUs, and we may be in for a serious chess match in the CBI theater.

It is way too early to determine LG's strategy, we are just looking for insights into his thought processes and doctrine at this point.

On a marginally related topic, you may note that I often refer to my own doctrines, such as Chain Invasions and LCTFs. I have found this very helpful in playing AE and recommend other players consider what doctrines they use. It is useful short hand that helps you plan and execute Ops without Oopsies. Doctrine should never be a straightjacket, but IMHO having them actually helps you evolve them as needed over time. After all, we don't have careers or institutional power bases to protect, meaning player doctrines are easier to modify than doctrines in real militaries. Plus, we all know how WWII played out, allowing us to discard many obsolete doctrines much more quickly than our real life counterparts. Enough soap boxing, on with the AAR.

Dec 10, 1941

Subs

Stingray duds on CL Nagara, which is escorting a supply TF to Jolo in anticipation of Ms. Netty taking up residence. Tracker claims that xAP Neptuna was sunk by a sub laid mine at Bataan.

4th Fleet

KB search planes claim hits on two small vessels in a TF near Johnston Island. Was this the feared Lexington TF? Maybe, but we will stay on guard. The odds of encountering the USN CV are much reduced, however. If Lex was near Wake our Nells on 30% search should see her. If she's east of the Marshalls KB catches her. If Lex is farther south she would have nailed the Tarawa Invasion TF. Barring cloaking technology, the whole thing was probably a false alarm. Tarawa will be invaded tomorrow and we are moving toward Wake as KB gets into position to support.

SE Fleet

Operation TK, a chain invasion of Tulagi, Munda Pt, Shortlands and Kavieng, launches from Truk. The invasion TFs are supported by four CAs and a DesDiv under Tanaka. In addition, tomorrow we invade four bases in northern New Guinea simultaneously (Manus, Wewak, Aitape and Hollandia). The Rabaul invasion is two days out from Truk and the BBs are approaching Truk soon as well.

14th Army

Sweeps of Clark net a 3:0 kill ratio and bombing raids destroy several planes on the ground, including at least one more B-17. The second wave at Laoag should land in not more than 48 hours, the Atimonan invasion is 96 hours out. The only goal for now in Luzon is siege.

11th Air Fleet HQ is fast approaching Davao to torpedo enable that base. We will then focus on securing Mindanao with troops from Babeldoab.

The frustration of the day is that our LCTF, as anticipated, catches the Brit MTBs at Laoag, but bright moonlight allows the torpedo boats to withdraw without loss. A well laid trap that fails to spring.

16th Army

As Jolo and Davao prepare to host LBA, a 3CVL KBL is about to re-enter the Celebes Sea. Both of these air assets will support assaults on Manado and Ternate within the week, and Tarakan, Ambon and Boela within the fortnight (hah, didn't think I could work "fortnight" into an AAR, did ya'!). The plan is for the two Air HQs to leap forward from base to base, supporting each other's moves like land forces on overwatch.

25th Army

Lots of unloading on the Malay Peninsula. Brave little Giyu Maru drops much needed supplies at Sambas and is ordered to hightail it out of there. Will the war's first kamikaze mission turn out to be round trip? Does Cribtop HQ have its first war hero?

Enemy Buffalos sweep Kota Bharu and hit us for 1:2 losses, shooting down two Oscar 1as. Those planes kind of suck. [8|]

China

BA at Hong Kong shows raw AV at 791 vs 213. We will DA tomorrow. LG stubbornly refuses to take the abandoned Ichang. Odd.

Our assault on Chengchow begins as two divisions push NW out of Soochow. We will post a screenie later tonight showing our plans for a two pronged offensive against the KMT on the northern plains. LG is moving quickly to establish a rational defensive line running south of Nanking to Chengchow. He seems good at the ground game, which should be fun as we rate that as one of our strengths as well.