Is Pear Harbor Unassailable?
Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:59 am
Over the last months spare time, we decided to playtest PBEM the Pearl Harbor Unassailable myth. This was a collection of PBEM tests with experienced Allied and Empire players determined to save Pearl or take pearl or to isolate pearl. We had interesting results as follows that we thought we would share:
• Scenario 1 - standard start (no invasion previously planned) – failed miserably every time. By the time the Empire can mount an invasion with the limited forces nearby, invariably the Americans have enforced Hawaii tremendously. Additionally, a lingering KB only has so many days of air ammo, and operational air losses mount very quickly. Within a week’s time, it is the KB is at risk of an American 3CV counterpunch. Finally, if an invasion actually occurs on an outer island (because PH cant be taken by a couple divisions as we will see), the defensive amphibious counterpulse is so devastating that the invasion wont survive. In cases where a multiple division force is sent to Pearl within 60 days of start and the American CV’s are available for counterpulse, every instance failed miserably, with the Americans taking advantage of the Pearl CAP shield and building of secondary airfields. Final outcome – just don’t do it if you are up against an experienced allied foe.
• Scenario 2 - Standard Start. Same results and recommendations as Scenario 1.
• Scenario 10 Ironman as PBEM – Standard start. Same results and recommendations. The extra forces as placed cannot affect a positive outcome before the allies can reinforce PH.
Next we massed available naval forces for Hawaii through the editor.
• Scenario 1 & 2 – all Empire CV forces at Pearl with KB. One Division Amphib force lagging KB. All other empire theater forces historical. Incremental aircraft of marginal effect after first turn. Invasion to an outer island succeeded in getting on half the time, but no airfield ever established. Empire airpower forced to retire to rearm within a week, or if split, the allies succeeded in breaking the siege through a CV combat in each occurrence. Note that while an AKE can resupply the air mission, the lost airframes cannot be replaced around Pearl. Note, we redid this with a 3 division amphib force going straight at Pearl. WOW, just don’t do it! The empire naval losses against the PH fort exceeded anything I have ever seen. Invading Pearl Harbor cannot succeed with a three division attack force (intact at time of invasion). Also isolation is not feasible without considerable luck, even with a three divisions force taking three islands in the initial pulse. The allies probably will foil one of them, and Pearl & the remaining airfields can suppress any airfield captured or built. Plus there is the issue of supply chain and getting incremental forces in. Outcome – this three division isolation has a low probability of isolating Pearl for some time assuming a maximum commitment to the chain (and away from other targets). There just aren’t enough Empire CV’s to go around to make this a viable strategy in most outcomes. Against experience allied foes, this would be a low probability win with high likelihood of strong rebuff.
• Scenario 10 – all empire CV forces at Pearl in the KB along with half of BB and CA. 6 division invasion force trailing targeting an isolation strategy by taking the other islands. Initial suppression of Pearl possible, assuming a willingness to attrite considerable aircraft. Occupation of outlying islands possible and an extended siege is viable. The substantially larger CV capacity in this case is decisive and generally thwarts any allied defensive counter invasion pulse. Generally speaking, suppressing the airfields and preventing resupply are the most important thing for the Empire to do. While we did not play this until the end, the siege probably could last into fall 42 before lifting, but there are many outcomes possible as time goes on.
• Just for giggles, we invaded Pearl with that Scenario 10 six division invasion force too. In the words of my daughter…OMFG! First, we tried invading with only small combat ships as cover, which was an utter disaster. 60-80% of the TF would be burning hulks before any invasion could occur, and what survived to get on-land was so small that there was no real contest. Keeping in mind that the amphibious portion of the invasion armada was around 150 ships, no less than 70 of the ships sunk in our attempts. OUCH! Next we threw in the big guns of BB’s and CA’s and made two hyper invasion TF’s. There was a reduction in total ships sunk by almost half, but the CA’s and BB’s mainly were sunk. The killer for the empire was that supply could not get on without going through the guns again. Ultimately, though somewhat close, the invasion failed. Keep in ming the terrain strongly favors the allied defender even after you are passed the guns. Naval losses were horrendous for the empire. Just horrendous! Equal to an entire year of heavy fighting.
So…I’d have to say that our little unscientific series of tests is a reasonable validation that Hawaii is unassailable in any normal scenario if the allied player moves to reinforce early. Even if he or she doesn’t, only a maximum attack could have an impact - and at a heavy cost.
After 30 days, the allies can move enough supply, airpower, ships that even the scenario 10 force cited above would not succeed in quarantining pearl.
Finally, we assumed the empire established bases and then conducted a long deleterious bombing campaign to eliminate the starting supply, which took 4-6 months and every available airframe outside the active theaters at start(which couldnt be done of course and torpedoed empire pilot training). It also pegged airframe losses over the capacity to replace. that said, we did the invasion one last time...and succeeded at heavy loss. Horray for cheating!
Seriously...There are far better uses of the available empire forces…but then I guess we all knew that already.
If as allies you ever think the empire might try it, the best defense is immediate reinforcement, an extra large airfield or two in hawaii, 500K supplies, and putting the best commanders you can find on the PH fort unit and the centpac and air hq's
If as Empire you ever think of doing it for real (not as a ruse), Drink six beers and sleep on it. you wont like the idea in the morning.
• Scenario 1 - standard start (no invasion previously planned) – failed miserably every time. By the time the Empire can mount an invasion with the limited forces nearby, invariably the Americans have enforced Hawaii tremendously. Additionally, a lingering KB only has so many days of air ammo, and operational air losses mount very quickly. Within a week’s time, it is the KB is at risk of an American 3CV counterpunch. Finally, if an invasion actually occurs on an outer island (because PH cant be taken by a couple divisions as we will see), the defensive amphibious counterpulse is so devastating that the invasion wont survive. In cases where a multiple division force is sent to Pearl within 60 days of start and the American CV’s are available for counterpulse, every instance failed miserably, with the Americans taking advantage of the Pearl CAP shield and building of secondary airfields. Final outcome – just don’t do it if you are up against an experienced allied foe.
• Scenario 2 - Standard Start. Same results and recommendations as Scenario 1.
• Scenario 10 Ironman as PBEM – Standard start. Same results and recommendations. The extra forces as placed cannot affect a positive outcome before the allies can reinforce PH.
Next we massed available naval forces for Hawaii through the editor.
• Scenario 1 & 2 – all Empire CV forces at Pearl with KB. One Division Amphib force lagging KB. All other empire theater forces historical. Incremental aircraft of marginal effect after first turn. Invasion to an outer island succeeded in getting on half the time, but no airfield ever established. Empire airpower forced to retire to rearm within a week, or if split, the allies succeeded in breaking the siege through a CV combat in each occurrence. Note that while an AKE can resupply the air mission, the lost airframes cannot be replaced around Pearl. Note, we redid this with a 3 division amphib force going straight at Pearl. WOW, just don’t do it! The empire naval losses against the PH fort exceeded anything I have ever seen. Invading Pearl Harbor cannot succeed with a three division attack force (intact at time of invasion). Also isolation is not feasible without considerable luck, even with a three divisions force taking three islands in the initial pulse. The allies probably will foil one of them, and Pearl & the remaining airfields can suppress any airfield captured or built. Plus there is the issue of supply chain and getting incremental forces in. Outcome – this three division isolation has a low probability of isolating Pearl for some time assuming a maximum commitment to the chain (and away from other targets). There just aren’t enough Empire CV’s to go around to make this a viable strategy in most outcomes. Against experience allied foes, this would be a low probability win with high likelihood of strong rebuff.
• Scenario 10 – all empire CV forces at Pearl in the KB along with half of BB and CA. 6 division invasion force trailing targeting an isolation strategy by taking the other islands. Initial suppression of Pearl possible, assuming a willingness to attrite considerable aircraft. Occupation of outlying islands possible and an extended siege is viable. The substantially larger CV capacity in this case is decisive and generally thwarts any allied defensive counter invasion pulse. Generally speaking, suppressing the airfields and preventing resupply are the most important thing for the Empire to do. While we did not play this until the end, the siege probably could last into fall 42 before lifting, but there are many outcomes possible as time goes on.
• Just for giggles, we invaded Pearl with that Scenario 10 six division invasion force too. In the words of my daughter…OMFG! First, we tried invading with only small combat ships as cover, which was an utter disaster. 60-80% of the TF would be burning hulks before any invasion could occur, and what survived to get on-land was so small that there was no real contest. Keeping in mind that the amphibious portion of the invasion armada was around 150 ships, no less than 70 of the ships sunk in our attempts. OUCH! Next we threw in the big guns of BB’s and CA’s and made two hyper invasion TF’s. There was a reduction in total ships sunk by almost half, but the CA’s and BB’s mainly were sunk. The killer for the empire was that supply could not get on without going through the guns again. Ultimately, though somewhat close, the invasion failed. Keep in ming the terrain strongly favors the allied defender even after you are passed the guns. Naval losses were horrendous for the empire. Just horrendous! Equal to an entire year of heavy fighting.
So…I’d have to say that our little unscientific series of tests is a reasonable validation that Hawaii is unassailable in any normal scenario if the allied player moves to reinforce early. Even if he or she doesn’t, only a maximum attack could have an impact - and at a heavy cost.
After 30 days, the allies can move enough supply, airpower, ships that even the scenario 10 force cited above would not succeed in quarantining pearl.
Finally, we assumed the empire established bases and then conducted a long deleterious bombing campaign to eliminate the starting supply, which took 4-6 months and every available airframe outside the active theaters at start(which couldnt be done of course and torpedoed empire pilot training). It also pegged airframe losses over the capacity to replace. that said, we did the invasion one last time...and succeeded at heavy loss. Horray for cheating!
Seriously...There are far better uses of the available empire forces…but then I guess we all knew that already.
If as allies you ever think the empire might try it, the best defense is immediate reinforcement, an extra large airfield or two in hawaii, 500K supplies, and putting the best commanders you can find on the PH fort unit and the centpac and air hq's
If as Empire you ever think of doing it for real (not as a ruse), Drink six beers and sleep on it. you wont like the idea in the morning.
