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Russian surrrender
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:05 am
by Numdydar
I assume that at some point in time a 'Bitter Peace' type event will fire for Russia. At least I hope so [:)]. If so what exactly is the trigger for the event?
That is the one thing I destested about ToW is that to defeat Russia, you had to capture EVERY city on the map (or was it kill every unit? either way I did not like it). So I am hoping that ToF will have some more 'realistic' option in this game.
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:52 pm
by Numdydar
Well, I found out how to defeat Russia, you just need to capture all the VP cities. Should have been obvious now that I think about it lol. Could have saved a bunch of time by not going after other cites [:@]. Not sure why Arcangel is not a VP point city, but it is not.
The other question is would the Russians have really kept fighting all the way to the Urals? I would have thought that as more and more of Russia was overrun past Moscow/Stalingrad, that the seperate regions would have split off (like the Ukarine does) and forged a seperate peace with Germany.
So I think, after the big three cities have been captured, that should start an every turn check to see if Russia keeps fighting or not. As more of Russia is caputerd, the chance of it's triggering goes up. From a player's perception, it seems like a real chore to have to go so far past those cities just to knock Russia out. Especially since the Russian forces keep getting weaker and weaker. At least they did in my game [:)]
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:59 pm
by aspqrz02
You are making a whole slew of assumptions that do not actually apply.
See, the reason the Russians keep on fighting, and would have, is because the Germans really gave them no option.
Remember all those welcoming Ukrainians and Byelorussians? Hated Stalin so much they welcomed the Nazis as liberators?
Well, did you know the German commanders didn't know how to handle this?
Probably not. Most people don't.
Do you know *why* they didn't know how to handle this?
Almost certainly not, as it is rarely, if ever, raised in general histories of the war, except in the most general, and therefore misleading, terms.
The reason the German commanders didn't know how to handle this was simply because the German operational and strategic planning requirements were based on the assumption that the population of the western USSR would be decreased, *in place* (i.e. not by deportation outside of the region), by 60% ... yes sixty percent ... within ten to twenty years.
What did this mean, in practise?
Deliberate starvation of the local population. Especially the local urban population. Initial plans were simply to cordon off major cities rather than capture and occupy them and shoot anyone who tried to leave, allowing little or no food in, and letting "nature" do the work for the Germans.
Yes, the German generals over-rode some of this planning, because, for example, the cities were transportation or industrial r communications hubs and simply surrounding and besieging them was actually militarily stupid.
And, of course, you'll argue, "I'm not Hitler. They didn't have to behave that way! The Russian people will welcome me and love me!"
Well, not so much, as it turns out.
Recent (say the last 20 years) research has shown that the Nazi state was a huge economic basket case, especially as regards food production.
The attack on Poland in 1939 was predicated on the understanding that the German farming sector would be so badly effected by the mobilisation of all those farmers sons (it was almost completely unmechanised, and so required much more manpower inputs than, say, British or American agriculture) that, unless they stripped food from conquered Poland there would be such a shortfall in domestic production that there would be famine.
So, the plan for Poland, in 1939, was to starve the population ... and they did just that ... to feed the victorious German burghers and their families.
When they attacked in the West in 1940, their occupation policies were to strip the occupied countries there to the bone, instituting severe rationing, and sending the food back home to Germany to support the populace at pretty much pre-war levels.
The planning for Barbarossa was predicated on the same assumptions.
So, if you *don't* murder/starve/exterminate those welcoming Ukrainians, Byelorussians etc. then it should, in reality, be at the expense of a *huge* hit to domestic unrest and production bottlenecks.
It didn't take long for the Russian people to do some pretty basic survival calculations and, basically, as a number of interesting (mainly British) Historians have shown, the results were that, as hated as Stalin was, his regime was predictably bad and, with a little care, you and your family had a better chance of surviving under it than under the Nazis.
This really doesn't change even if the Germans get to the Urals.
I doubt its modelled, but it should be.
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:47 am
by Numdydar
Well, the game allows you to adjust the players attitude towards the emeny, mild to harsh. So historically I can see where the odds of surrender were low, but if I can puppet England, why not Russia before I get to the Urals? Also, I chose a Mild policy towards the Russians so their will to fight to the bitter end should be much reduced imho. So I think some combination of policy and military success should have some kind of impact on when Russia would give up.
After all in my game I created the Ukrane as a seperate country, why not allow others to be formed as well? The Ukraians were not the only seperatist group in the USSR that would have loved to break away.
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:12 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: Numdydar
Well, the game allows you to adjust the players attitude towards the emeny, mild to harsh. So historically I can see where the odds of surrender were low, but if I can puppet England, why not Russia before I get to the Urals? Also, I chose a Mild policy towards the Russians so their will to fight to the bitter end should be much reduced imho. So I think some combination of policy and military success should have some kind of impact on when Russia would give up.
After all in my game I created the Ukrane as a seperate country, why not allow others to be formed as well? The Ukraians were not the only seperatist group in the USSR that would have loved to break away.
Indeed, you *should* be allowed to do all that, and more.
But there should be consequences.
Ones that reflect historical reality.
So, for example, if you wish to choose a "mild" policy towards Russia, that would mean, historically, attempting to starve/murder/exterminate "only* 30% of the population over 10-20 years [:D]
Or, if you wanted a something resembling a genuine "anti-bolshevik campaign", then there is economic reality that will hit ...
* Severe Rationing instituted in Germany. Unrest skyrockets and the chance of a military coup/assassination plot against Hitler et al increases exponentially
(NB: Nazi control actually got more absolute after the Bomb Plot failed. More extreme. Before that, well, lets say that their laxity, relative, let the plotters get as far as they did)
* Economic knock on effects reduce the PP gained from captured Russian cities by, oh, I dunno, half? More than half?
* Economic knock on effects reduce the resources from captured Russian resources by the same sort of amount.
* Supply cost for German units in the former USSR goes up significantly (they can't just strip the countryside bare like organised locusts any more)
They're the obvious problems off the top of my head.
See, most people don't understand that the Nazi state was a robber state. It could only survive by stripping food, workers, resources, and manufactured goods from the areas it conquered. Economically it had to do what it did to survive as long as it did ... either that or win the war, get a peace treaty with the Allies and Russia more or less simultaneously, at which point it could use the creative economics Schacht used before the war to keep things afloat till either ...
a) it fell apart from due to its ideological and economic contradictions (pretty likely)
or
b) it managed to work out something that would keep things metastable (like Stalinist Russia and its successors through to the 1980's ... only a medium term solution, at best)
or
c) it united with Japan to conquer the world (come on,
seriously [:D][:D][:D])
So, yes, mildness with severe consequences is fine!
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:25 am
by rodney727
Your Theory of why buy the cow when you get the milk for free is an assumption all in itself. The Ukrainians and Byelorussians would have gladly joined the Germans if the Germans wanted them to. It was the German (and yes the German commanders knew how to handle this) policy however that made this simply not on option as it would have went against German propaganda and ideology to do so.
ORIGINAL: aspqrz
You are making a whole slew of assumptions that do not actually apply.
See, the reason the Russians keep on fighting, and would have, is because the Germans really gave them no option.
Remember all those welcoming Ukrainians and Byelorussians? Hated Stalin so much they welcomed the Nazis as liberators?
Well, did you know the German commanders didn't know how to handle this?
Probably not. Most people don't.
Do you know *why* they didn't know how to handle this?
Almost certainly not, as it is rarely, if ever, raised in general histories of the war, except in the most general, and therefore misleading, terms.
The reason the German commanders didn't know how to handle this was simply because the German operational and strategic planning requirements were based on the assumption that the population of the western USSR would be decreased, *in place* (i.e. not by deportation outside of the region), by 60% ... yes sixty percent ... within ten to twenty years.
What did this mean, in practise?
Deliberate starvation of the local population. Especially the local urban population. Initial plans were simply to cordon off major cities rather than capture and occupy them and shoot anyone who tried to leave, allowing little or no food in, and letting "nature" do the work for the Germans.
Yes, the German generals over-rode some of this planning, because, for example, the cities were transportation or industrial r communications hubs and simply surrounding and besieging them was actually militarily stupid.
And, of course, you'll argue, "I'm not Hitler. They didn't have to behave that way! The Russian people will welcome me and love me!"
Well, not so much, as it turns out.
Recent (say the last 20 years) research has shown that the Nazi state was a huge economic basket case, especially as regards food production.
The attack on Poland in 1939 was predicated on the understanding that the German farming sector would be so badly effected by the mobilisation of all those farmers sons (it was almost completely unmechanised, and so required much more manpower inputs than, say, British or American agriculture) that, unless they stripped food from conquered Poland there would be such a shortfall in domestic production that there would be famine.
So, the plan for Poland, in 1939, was to starve the population ... and they did just that ... to feed the victorious German burghers and their families.
When they attacked in the West in 1940, their occupation policies were to strip the occupied countries there to the bone, instituting severe rationing, and sending the food back home to Germany to support the populace at pretty much pre-war levels.
The planning for Barbarossa was predicated on the same assumptions.
So, if you *don't* murder/starve/exterminate those welcoming Ukrainians, Byelorussians etc. then it should, in reality, be at the expense of a *huge* hit to domestic unrest and production bottlenecks.
It didn't take long for the Russian people to do some pretty basic survival calculations and, basically, as a number of interesting (mainly British) Historians have shown, the results were that, as hated as Stalin was, his regime was predictably bad and, with a little care, you and your family had a better chance of surviving under it than under the Nazis.
This really doesn't change even if the Germans get to the Urals.
I doubt its modelled, but it should be.
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:56 am
by Numdydar
Yes but as the Leader of the State (which is the thrust of the game), you can chose in a limited way how you will treat people you invade. So as Germany you could chose to be a liberater versus how they were historically. So if I am given the option of creating the Ukraine (which I was in my game), then why not other parts of the USSR as well?
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 4:23 am
by rodney727
I agree. You have some valid points.
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:31 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: rogo727
Your Theory of why buy the cow when you get the milk for free is an assumption all in itself. The Ukrainians and Byelorussians would have gladly joined the Germans if the Germans wanted them to. It was the German (and yes the German commanders knew how to handle this) policy however that made this simply not on option as it would have went against German propaganda and ideology to do so.
It's not
my anything. Its the work of a lot of very smart Historians and Economists who have actually studied the guts of the German (and Allied, and Soviet) records for the last 60 odd years (some of them very odd, until 1989 or so).
It's also more than a theory. It's pretty widely accepted in the non-coffee table WW2 book scene.
Do you, personally, have to play it that way.
Of course not.
However, since you, personally, believe you have a perfectly reasonably expectation to have the game based around fantasies that simply weren't possible, or were only possible with severe disadvantages that you wish to handwave away, and I don't disagree with this, how about accepting that people who want to have something close(ish) to reality have the same right?
Have a fantasy scenario or scenarios, by all means!
Just at least have the option of a historical one for those of us who want that ... or at least allow it to be modded for.
YMMV
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:35 am
by Greyshaft
hmmm ... this is getting interesting (grabs popcorn and settles down to watch the flame war)
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:40 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: Numdydar
Yes but as the Leader of the State (which is the thrust of the game), you can chose in a limited way how you will treat people you invade. So as Germany you could chose to be a liberater versus how they were historically. So if I am given the option of creating the Ukraine (which I was in my game), then why not other parts of the USSR as well?
Yes, indeed. But the Germans behaved the way they did because of things that were often partly or even entirely out of control.
Sort of like the Japanese efforts at wargaming WW2 in the Pacific.
You know the story?
After the Diplomats and Military Attaches to UK and USA were exchanged for their allied counterparts, they were gathered together and told to act as the Allies in a kriegspiel meant to help the IJA/IJN game out strategic alternatives.
Of course, they were loaded down with all sorts of limitations that simply didn't apply to the real world allied economies ... and gave the IJA/IJN fantasy alternatives (not enough oilers to let the Kido Butai carry out that operation? No probs! Pretend they exist! Out of fuel? No probs! Pretend it appears like manna from heaven! Can't get enough soldiers there in time because of transport bottlenecks, and can't supply 'em when they do get there? No probs! Magic everything so that the fantasyland express delivers it all)yet, within two game years the Allied forces were running wild all across the Pacific.
At which the IJN High Command terminated the game. Their reason? The Spirit of Banzai would overcome all.
Do you want to play a fantasy scenario that handwaves away economic and logistical reality?
Fine. I have no problem with that.
However, I want the option of a game scenario that adheres reasonably closely to such reality.
YMMV.
Phil
Need I point out that the Allied players in that game were correct?
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:46 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: Greyshaft
hmmm ... this is getting interesting (grabs popcorn and settles down to watch the flame war)
No. I've been involved in flame wars over this in soc.history.what-if where, as one would expect, some grounding in the real world limits is de rigeur ... and this ain't even close.
It's merely the "gamer" crowd, who want something that's fun to play, and balanced ... which means only vaguely, if at all, realistic ... vs the "simulation" or "historical" crowd who want something that is closer to the real world.
I have no problem at all with "gamer" style scenarios ... what I have a problem with is game engines that
cannot represent reality in any meaningful way. Time of Fury is
not in that category, as far as I can tell!
I don't think the others have a problem with "historical" scenarios, either, they just reserve the right to not want to play them.
So neither of us really have a problem, we're merely explaining our divergent points of view.


Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:09 am
by Numdydar
ORIGINAL: aspqrz
ORIGINAL: Numdydar
Yes but as the Leader of the State (which is the thrust of the game), you can chose in a limited way how you will treat people you invade. So as Germany you could chose to be a liberater versus how they were historically. So if I am given the option of creating the Ukraine (which I was in my game), then why not other parts of the USSR as well?
Yes, indeed. But the Germans behaved the way they did because of things that were often partly or even entirely out of control.
Sort of like the Japanese efforts at wargaming WW2 in the Pacific.
You know the story?
After the Diplomats and Military Attaches to UK and USA were exchanged for their allied counterparts, they were gathered together and told to act as the Allies in a kriegspiel meant to help the IJA/IJN game out strategic alternatives.
Of course, they were loaded down with all sorts of limitations that simply didn't apply to the real world allied economies ... and gave the IJA/IJN fantasy alternatives (not enough oilers to let the Kido Butai carry out that operation? No probs! Pretend they exist! Out of fuel? No probs! Pretend it appears like manna from heaven! Can't get enough soldiers there in time because of transport bottlenecks, and can't supply 'em when they do get there? No probs! Magic everything so that the fantasyland express delivers it all)yet, within two game years the Allied forces were running wild all across the Pacific.
At which the IJN High Command terminated the game. Their reason? The Spirit of Banzai would overcome all.
Do you want to play a fantasy scenario that handwaves away economic and logistical reality?
Fine. I have no problem with that.
However, I want the option of a game scenario that adheres reasonably closely to such reality.
YMMV.
Phil
Need I point out that the Allied players in that game were correct?
I am just trying to apply logic to a game engine. A 'tilting at windmill' exercise if there ever was one [:D]
I am not talking about the historical record, as ToF is way outside of that (at least under the current version of the game 1.0). I totally understand that if any game accurately represented what German control was like in the occuppied countries (do this or die basicly), the vast majority would never want to play them [:(]
My point is that if the
game allows me to do X (create the Ukraine) based on my choices in the game, why will it not allow me to do Y (or Z, or W) when these are all similar in nature?
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:19 am
by doomtrader
The issue is that there was not really anything else than X.
Ukrainians where the only major nation in the Western part (the one represented in the game) of the SU.
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:20 am
by RandomAttack
While much of the underlying data may be true in their piece parts, analysis of hypotheticals by economists (don't even get me started on all the mistakes THEY have made) and scholars can be just as misguided as analysis by "coffee table" folks. It inevitably reduces these events to numbers games and leaves out the "human" equation. On paper, the feats of Alexander the Great, Ghengis Khan, etc., are absurd! Preposterous! Couldn't possibly have happened! Nothing wrong with promulgating those theories of course, but to imply they rise to the level of "fact" is just wrong. It's also amusing to see how history changes based on who's doing the analysis.
- What if FDR had decided to focus on Japan first (very possible politically)?
- What if U.S. carriers had been at Pearl Harbor?
- What is the U'S. had lost the Battle of Midway (you could argue we were pretty darn lucky)?
The list is endless.
Here in the U.S. we have a term for this: Monday-morning quarterbacking (ref to football). It's quite easy, after the game is over, to analyze an upset and explain WHY it happened. Or analyze a loss and say "if they had only done this". On paper, U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan should have been completely over within a year or so-- and 10+ years later, here we are. It's easy to sit back in our recliners, tamp our pipes, and say "of course old man, it was inevitable due to the economic, social and cultural factors", etc. It also totally misses the point that, at high levels, real people screwed up royally. It didn't HAVE to be that way.
My personal opinion is that 1) Hitler screwed up by attacking Russia in the first place; and 2) his absolutely worst mistake. once doing so, was not to embrace all the folks (like the Ukrainians) who would have willingly fought along side him if he had just given them decent treatment and a little hope. Apparently some folks want to explain away #2 as an economic inevitability, when it seems the truth is much simpler: Hitler was a nutjob about certain things ("racial superiority" being one of them). Darn-- there go those real people again, doing illogical things and messing up all the equations. [:)]
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:24 pm
by rodney727
You give no sources, and you seem to be ranting about some sort of fantasy that I have? Try reading these books (note not coffee table books)
Absolute War by Chris Bellamy- Soviet Russia in the second word war.
The Russo-German War 1941-1945 by Albert Seaton
The Rise and Fall of the Thrid Reich by William Shirer
Also you state that Hitlers greatest blunder was the the attack on Russia ........even the smartest economist will tell you that it was Germany's declaration on the united states that lead to Germany's defeat.
ORIGINAL: aspqrz
ORIGINAL: rogo727
Your Theory of why buy the cow when you get the milk for free is an assumption all in itself. The Ukrainians and Byelorussians would have gladly joined the Germans if the Germans wanted them to. It was the German (and yes the German commanders knew how to handle this) policy however that made this simply not on option as it would have went against German propaganda and ideology to do so.
It's not
my anything. Its the work of a lot of very smart Historians and Economists who have actually studied the guts of the German (and Allied, and Soviet) records for the last 60 odd years (some of them very odd, until 1989 or so).
(source ?????????)
It's also more than a theory. It's pretty widely accepted in the non-coffee table WW2 book scene.
{Source??????????}
Do you, personally, have to play it that way.
Of course not.
However, since you, personally, believe you have a perfectly reasonably expectation to have the game based around fantasies that simply weren't possible, or were only possible with severe disadvantages that you wish to handwave away, and I don't disagree with this, how about accepting that people who want to have something close(ish) to reality have the same right?
(Can't figure out what he is going off on)
Have a fantasy scenario or scenarios, by all means!
Just at least have the option of a historical one for those of us who want that ... or at least allow it to be modded for.
YMMV
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:32 pm
by Numdydar
ORIGINAL: doomtrader
The issue is that there was not really anything else than X.
Ukrainians where the only major nation in the Western part (the one represented in the game) of the SU.
I find that odd as many of the other groups were at least as big as Bulgeria. So I would have thought that more areas than the Ukriane could be formed. If not that is fine. At least the Ukriane is represented which is a good thing imho. [:)]
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:25 am
by aspqrz02
"Hitler screwed up by attacking Russia in the first place."
<sigh>
<holds head in hands>
Where to begin?
You *do* know that, from the get go, before the Nazis were even in power, Hitler's aims, as explicitly stated in Mein Kampf (and the Second Book), were to gain lebensraum in the East. By eliminating Poland and seizing most of Russia west of the Urals?
Sure, "politicians promises" ... except for the fact that Hitler made serious attempts to fulfill most if not all of what he actually said in the two books. Didn't leave much out, either.
So, in fact, WW2 started because Hitler was attempting to fulfill his promises.
Step 1: Attack Poland.
Expectation: Allies roll over and play dead.
Surprise: Allies declare war.
Response: A two front war is a "bad thing" ... to attack the USSR (intended Step 2), you need to eliminate that possibility ... so attack in the west.
Step 2: Attack the USSR when the western allies are defeated.
OK. You say you are not Hitler.
We have this argument in soc.history.what-if all the time ... new posters, often (not always) with minimal knowledge of the strategic and economic realities facing the parties involved, propose pretty much the exact same sort of thing you are ...
... and say, "I'm not Hitler. Why should I behave as he did?"
To which we generally, initially, at least, gently point out that, OK, Hitler did what he did for very good reasons ... see above ... so why are you invading Russia? You don't need to, especially if you're "Not Hitler".
And we then point out, "Well, then, I'm playing the role of Not Stalin, and I don't do the Purges. The Red Army stages Icebreaker in 1939 and crushes the woefully inadequate Wehrmacht with its Panzer 1s/IIs and Czech rubbish with our T-34s, which, as Not Stalin, we decided to produce instead of everything else"
And, "Then, as Not Chamberlain rearmed the UK in 1934, the British are actually prepared for an attack against Germany in 1939, as are the French led by Not Daladier who get rid of the morons in the French High Command, placing De Gaulle in Command, and together they crush the German Army in the west and march on Berlin, saving the Poles!"
See, two can play, as we call it here in Oz, "Silly Buggers" ...
If you want the Germans unconstrained by political, economic or military reality, then *I* want the French and the British and the Russians and the US equally unconstrained.
Turn about is fair play, after all.
YMMV
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:41 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: rogo727
You give no sources, and you seem to be ranting about some sort of fantasy that I have? Try reading these books (note not coffee table books)
Tooze, "Wages of Destruction"
Harrison (Ed), "The Economics of WW2: Six Great Powers in International Comparison"
Harrison & Barber, "The Soviet Home Front, 1941-45: A Social and Economic History"
come off the top of my head. There are others, as well as journal articles.
ORIGINAL: rogo727
Absolute War by Chris Bellamy- Soviet Russia in the second word war.
The Russo-German War 1941-1945 by Albert Seaton
The Rise and Fall of the Thrid Reich by William Shirer
Absolute War is fine, but, of course, Bellamy makes the point that WW2 was won on the East Front. By the Russians. Not what you seem to be saying he is claiming at all.
Seaton is OK, but also dated, as I noted a lot of this stuff only starts to get out of very specialist literature in the last 20 years or so. And Seaton, writing a broad general history of the Eastern Front is, of course, not really going to get it, since he's writing 19 years ago. It would be interesting to see what he might add to a revised, updated, and rewritten version.
Shirer? A journalist. In a book written 50 odd years ago. Before the information in the books I have cited was available widely?
Oh, I see, you're joshing me.
ORIGINAL: rogo727
Also you state that Hitlers greatest blunder was the the attack on Russia ........even the smartest economist will tell you that it was Germany's declaration on the united states that lead to Germany's defeat.
And even Bellamy, whom
you cite, disagrees with you.
And the thing Hitler feared so much that he attacked in the West in 1940 to avoid it was a two front war, as he knew that the relative strength of the Wehrmacht vis a vis the Red Army was declining rapidly.
Look, seriously, I'm not intending to dis you, and I apologise if you mistakenly see it that way. I am merely pointing out that the sort of books *you* are citing, are, well, not really the specialist works *I* have read and which support what I am saying.
Make of that what you will <sigh>
Phil
RE: Russian surrrender
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:46 am
by aspqrz02
ORIGINAL: doomtrader
The issue is that there was not really anything else than X.
Ukrainians where the only major nation in the Western part (the one represented in the game) of the SU.
Why not Byelorussia?
Phil