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how many supply wagons do I need when I go to war? Are there any rough calculation I can use? or do I simply guess?

Your army uses x supply points every turn (found in popup on the supply status of your army), and every supply wagon holds y supply points.

ORIGINAL: jnpoint

how many supply wagons do I need when I go to war? Are there any rough calculation I can use? or do I simply guess?

Best solution is to detach all supply wagons from the force you want to move forward. You can then see how much supply per turn that will need (the little supply icon at the end of the toolbar with all the unit details). Now do the same for your supply wagons - that will tell you, assuming they are full, just how much they can carry.

If you have Romans in the AJE scenarios you can reckon on relatively quick sieges (the specialist siege towers etc), everyone else and Romans in BOR will be much slower. So that may give you some tools to guess at how many turns before you can secure a new source of supply (ie from on arrival if it is non-fortified to 'x' months/years).

Equally you can set up a supply chain, either build a depot near to where you are making a siege (that will produce some supply) and/or send your wagons back/forth to a decent supply source (but escort them). Both these will make supply a bit less of a one-shot, take all you need to eat exercise.

Strategy in the game revolves around holding/taking decent supply sources, like a lot of AGEOD games, starvation is a pretty powerful weapon in your hands and a pretty major threat ...

No wonder I can't get into AJE. That sounds so cumberson, it can't be fun!!

It's really dead simple... your army needs x supply and a province provides y supply. The difference between y and x is used up from the armies supply reserves. That's it. Of course the actual calculation of supply is more complex but it doesn't matter because you don't need to know it.
Apart from that I have to say that I never had any supply problems in AJE or BOR. There's a lot of supply everywhere unless you put all your troops in one single army and siege one small city. And of course winter can be a problem, but usually you have enough supplies to endure the 2-3 turns of winter where you might lose some supply and then restock again in spring/summer.