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OT-War cycles
Posted: Mon May 13, 2013 12:22 pm
by bigred
Got this jpeg from a solicitor...

RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:07 pm
by dcpollay
[:)] Ahh, predictive modelling. I love how it takes a big downturn right around 2002.
Wait....I think that chart is my stock portfolio! Big things are coming my way soon!
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Mon May 13, 2013 5:27 pm
by Czert
time to invest in weapons and ammo companyies.
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 10:04 am
by Hiltibrant
Why is the value on the y-Axis mostly running in the negative? Or is that a graphical representation of the war deficit, i.e. there not being enough wars?
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 11:55 am
by Chickenboy
Patent rubbish. No really. Your friend should patent this algorithm for its rubbishness.
Given about 3 minutes on MS Excel, I could also draw up some oddball formula and graph it over fictitious years. That would hardly constitute any circulable 'truth'.
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 1:40 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Patent rubbish. No really. Your friend should patent this algorithm for its rubbishness.
Given about 3 minutes on MS Excel, I could also draw up some oddball formula and graph it over fictitious years. That would hardly constitute any circulable 'truth'.
I've been thinking of it as a joke [:'(]. It's so far from serious that it can't be anything but!
Although when I first opened the thread, I thought maybe it would be something about historical world systems/cycles, which would've been interesting. I heard somebody speculate the other day about major societal changes/shifts occurring every 80 years or so, at least for the past couple of centuries. It was interesting to think about.
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 2:17 pm
by Canoerebel
There have been some interesting correlations between weather and wars - many wars seem to coincide with "the coldest winter in xx-umpteen years." (Or perhaps it's a matter of perspective - the footsoldier huddled in a foxhole at Bastogne or in a tent at Harper's Ferry isn't likely to feel a warm glow.)
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 3:07 pm
by dazoline II
The original posting:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/wwiii-ha ... rted-51841
Trying not to be the pot calling the kettle black the guy that wrote that in my opinion has no understanding of a real shooting war. Although he maybe on to somthing with mesuring the interestingness in the world as defined by a certain Chinese curse.
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 3:38 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Patent rubbish. No really. Your friend should patent this algorithm for its rubbishness.
Given about 3 minutes on MS Excel, I could also draw up some oddball formula and graph it over fictitious years. That would hardly constitute any circulable 'truth'.
I've been thinking of it as a joke [:'(]. It's so far from serious that it can't be anything but!
Although when I first opened the thread, I thought maybe it would be something about historical world systems/cycles, which would've been interesting. I heard somebody speculate the other day about major societal changes/shifts occurring every 80 years or so, at least for the past couple of centuries. It was interesting to think about.
Got it. That makes more sense. Sorry if I was snippish.
I think the trend for warfare amongst mankind would be decidely lowering toward the right. Never-ending warfare is increasingly uncommon. People (in general) are very unlikely to die as a result of warfare or terrorism. Sure, there are exceptions, but this is moving in the right direction.
I agree with Plato that "only the dead have seen the end of war". Still, less war killing less people over the next two centuries (forward-looking)? I'll take it as progress.
RE: OT-War cycles
Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 12:05 am
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: dazoline II
The original posting:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/wwiii-ha ... rted-51841
Trying not to be the pot calling the kettle black the guy that wrote that in my opinion has no understanding of a real shooting war. Although he maybe on to somthing with mesuring the interestingness in the world as defined by a certain Chinese curse.
Several (most?) of the things he "checks" on his list aren't actually "checked" at all [&:]. Citations needed.