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There is a problem with how notional units are calculated.

A JP INF div is on an SCS in the 3 box of the Persian Gulf. The weather is fine and Persia is conquered by the USSR which is at war with JP. All the notional units along the coast have one factor, with the exception of the island in hex 87,83 which has 0. There are no allied ZOCs and no HQs.

I think the game either incorrectly assigns the +1 home country bonus, or does not calculate supply correctly.

Savegame sent.

Quite likely not a bug - the home country bonus is only in the Home Country of a Major Power.

A notional unit only suffers a -1 to total strength if it can not trace a supply line "of any length", which is different from tracing supply for normal combat units. The island hex would be out of supply as with no Russian units in the sea boxes of the Persian Gulf, it could not trace any supply line at all.

So on the described surface of this situation, things look correct.

I missed the "any length" part...