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this gives some me new scenario ideas [:D]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/01/14/f- ... to-kadena/

Wow, very timely. There's more escalation going on as we speak.

In today's papers, China is now claiming anyone seeking to fish in the portion of the South China Sea it claims (that is, most of it) will have to ask their permission first.
The other countries in the region are not pleased.

Doubt much will come of that, yet anyway, but maybe good scenario fodder too.

For a fascinating look at the South China Sea, both personal and the big picture, go to the nytimes site and look for an article called "A Game of Shark and Minnow." The reporter spent time with some Filipino marines on a grounded LST on the Scarborough shoals, watching Chinese patrol vessels skim the reef.

Learn about the Chinese strategies of the cabbage, the forest, and the big belly!

in case you are interested, a few documents about this subject:


Entering the Dragon's Lair
Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pu ... _MG524.pdf


A Question of Balance
Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pu ... _MG888.pdf



Anti-Access Measures in Chinese Defense Strategy
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pu ... _CT354.pdf


Air Combat Past, Present and Future
http://www.mossekongen.no/downloads/200 ... iefing.pdf


http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/china-ca ... ipei-says/

Nice Links!

"In today's papers, China is now claiming anyone seeking to fish in the portion of the South China Sea"
That's just the Chinese government new year message to the people in China, they are showing they care. New years is coming and they want the people to talk about something positive the government is doing other than screwing the people. Most educated people will joke about this saying looks whats the government doing now, they are party members with jobs in the government.

ORIGINAL: mrfeizhu

"In today's papers, China is now claiming anyone seeking to fish in the portion of the South China Sea"
That's just the Chinese government new year message to the people in China, they are showing they care. New years is coming and they want the people to talk about something positive the government is doing other than screwing the people. Most educated people will joke about this saying looks whats the government doing now, they are party members with jobs in the government.

I don't know China obviously, but seems along the same lines as misinterpretation of Russia. Some meaningless government official with no authority says some nationalistic statement meant to instill morale in the people (which in reality is seen as a joke by the people) it gets reported in the West and by the time it makes it to forums like this the Cold War is back in swing and Russia is ready to move west ad 'rebuild the Soviet Empire' or some other nonsense.

ORIGINAL: Russian Heel

ORIGINAL: mrfeizhu

"In today's papers, China is now claiming anyone seeking to fish in the portion of the South China Sea"
That's just the Chinese government new year message to the people in China, they are showing they care. New years is coming and they want the people to talk about something positive the government is doing other than screwing the people. Most educated people will joke about this saying looks whats the government doing now, they are party members with jobs in the government.

I don't know China obviously, but seems along the same lines as misinterpretation of Russia. Some meaningless government official with no authority says some nationalistic statement meant to instill morale in the people (which in reality is seen as a joke by the people) it gets reported in the West and by the time it makes it to forums like this the Cold War is back in swing and Russia is ready to move west ad 'rebuild the Soviet Empire' or some other nonsense.

when i started this thread i didn´want to offend anybody (neither chinese people,american,russian...), it was just interesting news for me.
(just wanted to make this clear)

its not offending any one, its the way the media reports things in countries that have state run media's. Reading the China daily is sort of like reading the onion http://www.theonion.com/

ORIGINAL: mrfeizhu

its not offending any one, its the way the media reports things in countries that have state run media's. Reading the China daily is sort of like reading the onion http://www.theonion.com/

Yeah zero offense taken here, I was just pointing out the similarities. "Pravda" is seriously a tabloid now as it is owned by the same group that puts out Russia's yellow press and Russia Today is the Onion News Network - it's whole purpose seems to be to troll Americans and to a lesser extent Western Europeans (it is quite adept at it.) But with them being the only readily available English language Russian 'news' sources it twists the reality of the situation for most people, which of course can't be avoided.

In Russia people have long abandoned viewing the media as anything trustworthy and it and politicians saying outrageous things is a form of comedic entertainment.

China will have quite a surprise if they decide to go toe to toe with the Japanese Navy. Although not as large as the Chinese navy the Japanese are extremely professional well-equipped and have a long-standing culture and heritage of naval warfare. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Chinese got a bloody nose the first time they reached out to try to establish control there by the Japanese

I doubt there will be more than posturing anytime soon. There's too much at stake.

China is an export economy. P**ing off its biggest customers (US, Europe, Japan) that much would be very bad for business. And China relies on the Middle East for half its oil. The Malacca Strait is the very definition of a choke-point.

China's navy can't stop a blockade. Any extended conflict would ruin them economically, no actual combat required.

So any conflict would have to be limited, local, and smoothed over quickly.

OTOH, screw-ups have been known to happen when brinksmanship is involved.