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Getting to grips with this airwar stuff.... and looking at the aircraft load out screen while messing about with various payloads, is there much difference in real game terms of damage caused between:

Stirling III Level bomber using:

3x 2000lb HC bomb, 10x 500lb MV bombs, 6x aux fuel tanks
vs.
1x 2000lb HC bomb, 25x 30lb incendiary bombs, 250x 4lb incendiary bombs, 8x aux fuel tanks

not looking at radius/manoeuvrability/climb rate, just pure damage if targeting a factory

My assumption is that pure HE loads are more effective vs ground targets and buildings, while incendiary bombs are better vs manpower & fuel/oil targets. Am I off track or in the ballpark?

My assumption is that pure HE loads are more effective vs ground targets and buildings, while incendiary bombs are better vs manpower & fuel/oil targets.

Yes, that's right. Incendiary is most effective against manpower.

The heavy incendiary load available for British bombers is the closest possible match to what they historically used over Germany during their night bombing campaign. All British level bombers heavily involded in the night campaign should have at least one of these loads.
The other bombloads are more designed to cover needs for daylight bombing raids vs units, factories, rails, etc.