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Was just on the phone with Michael and he asked a good question. If the Japanese had decided to NOT build the Yamato-Class, what could they have done?

In Stanislav and I's work on Perfect Storm we postulated the Japanese building a more conventional 16" BB. In terms of cost, resources (read steel production), and huge amounts of time, what could the Japanese have realistically built?

Essentially this would be a re-write of the 3rd Circle Plan (Yamato, Musashi, Shokaku, Zuikaku, etc...) put in effect when Japan left the Treaty System in 1935-36.

If you are not going to build Yamatos, then there has been a fundamental, conceptual shift in Japanese Naval doctrine.

BB battleline gun power "must" follow the square root rule. Even Japan could do the math. They couldn't build in the requisite numbers, so, in order to overcome the mathematical limitations of the Mahan "battle-line" paradigm, they made a conscious and concerted effort to make each of their capital vessels at least one step higher in capability than an equivalent vessel of a potentially opposing fleet.

You don't build Yamatos, you are going to have to build something pretty darn close (i.e., same relative cost and time), or just abandon the whole Mahanian concept and build a fleet according to the crazy wild-ass ideas of the air advocates. You cannot have both. You only have six toothpicks: you can make a square (and waste two), you can make a hexagon (don't know what that would be), or you can make two triangles.

Sorry, John. Japan could not have built anything with Yamato 'capability' without building Yamato. Just MHO. JWE

I fundamentally understand the 'Using One to Conquer Many' Japanese philosophy. What I am trying to say is if the Japanese had built a smaller BB along an Improved-Nagato (for instance) would they have freed up enough steel or whatever to build THREE instead of two? Could they have built two 16" BB and added a pair of B-64s? This is what I am getting at. Would a more conventional BB-Class allowed for additional/different mixes.

Once the USA announces the Two Ocean Navy Bills then they KNOW it is over anyway. Course that isn't for 2-3 years after Japan leaves the Treaty System...

Whoops, yep, I missed your point.

I don’t see why not. Although steel production was a limiting factor, the real booger was time. If you started earlier you would have produced more steel by, say, mid ’42.

Another benefit might come from recovering the Yamato’s huge front-loaded costs. These include the costs for enlarging and modernizing Kure NSY. A proportion of these recovered costs could go towards enlarging and modernizing the steel production facilities. You may well end up with enough ‘stuff’.

You could build a couple Kii BBs and couple B-64 BCs. I’m assuming you are talking about the Project B64, Amagi class, 16” BCs rather, than the Project B-65, Katsuragi class, 12” super CAs.

There is a nice, modernized Amagi at http://www.h2.dion.ne.jp/~wakamiya/amagi.htm and images of some original blueprints and design specifications at http://forum.worldofwarships.com/index. ... lecruiser/

I was struck by the similarities with the Kii. A few tweaks here and there and one could build four very similar ships. They have the same basic 16.1” armament suite and turbines; differ primarily in armor and Hp/ton, and could both use the same propulsion system. This would provide further economies of scale. Both originally spec out with 131,000 SHP plants, but if you use a 150,000 SHP plant, like Yamato or the B-65, you can get two 30 knot ships with BB armor and two 33 knot ships with BC armor.

You might even could get away with the original power plants, but make the boilers all oil fired instead of mixed oil/coal. That would require a fewer number of boilers (14 instead of 19) for some nice space recovery, as well as increased range efficiency.

If you are looking for quantity, this is definitely doable, with what Japan had available in terms of facilities and materials in the years leading up to opening day.

ORIGINAL: Symon

If you are not going to build Yamatos, then there has been a fundamental, conceptual shift in Japanese Naval doctrine.

BB battleline gun power "must" follow the square root rule. Even Japan could do the math. They couldn't build in the requisite numbers, so, in order to overcome the mathematical limitations of the Mahan "battle-line" paradigm, they made a conscious and concerted effort to make each of their capital vessels at least one step higher in capability than an equivalent vessel of a potentially opposing fleet.

You don't build Yamatos, you are going to have to build something pretty darn close (i.e., same relative cost and time), or just abandon the whole Mahanian concept and build a fleet according to the crazy wild-ass ideas of the air advocates. You cannot have both. You only have six toothpicks: you can make a square (and waste two), you can make a hexagon (don't know what that would be), or you can make two triangles.

Sorry, John. Japan could not have built anything with Yamato 'capability' without building Yamato. Just MHO. JWE

+1.

What I would add to Symon's post is that the big qualitative edge which the Japanese ship designers sought lay primarily in the top secret 18.1" guns. It wasn't the size of the ship, its armour or propulsion system which mattered. What mattered was the view that the 18.1" guns would enable the Yamatos to destroy the enemy at a range beyond return fire. Building a couple of extra battleships with only 16" guns would not provide any qualitative edge as these ships would remain vulnerable.

As to abandoning "the whole Mahanian concept", I suspect Symon is being very diplomatic. Personally I consider there was zero chance of that occurring. Only if the war had been delayed until the mid 1950s might there have been any chance of a shift in Japanese naval doctrine. It takes a long time for complicated capital ships to be designed; in the absence of concrete empirical data which conclusively demonstrates that a dead end in ship design has been reached, design revolutions do not happen. No such empirical evidence to justify a design revolution existed in the time period relevant for designing warships which would be available for operational use by mid 1943.

Alfred

Alfred

One other restriction to consider is the number of construction slips that could handle capital ships. Some time ago some one posted a chart showing the production of Japanese capital ships and the slipways utilized and that their was not much wiggle room to sneak in an extra Shokaku CV or Yamato BB. You might have a shorter production line that you could stack the newer ships in.

Here is the chart and an interesting discussion.

fb.asp?m=2599823

Quite true, Skyros, but given John 3d’s premise, and building relatively “standard” and “similar” ships, it might be possible to shoehorn them in.

After Soryu, Kure #1 was doing fiddly bits while undergoing expansion for the Yamatos. If no Yamatos, then Kure #1 would be available in ’36, rather than ’38. Going from Soryu launch date (12/23/35) to Yamato launch date (8/8/40) is almost 5 years. Yamato took 2.5 years and a skoosh from keel to launch, so with 5 years, Kure #1 could deliver a couple of the proposed BB/BCs.

If you push Tone construction so she launches in mid ‘37, Mitsubishi, Nagasaki #1 might become available in mid ’37. Starting from there, using the Musashi construction times, and using the post Musashi yard utilization for fiddly bits, you could get a another of the proposed BB/BCs by opening day and possibly two, if you used whips and chains.

Alternatively, you could limit the 6 year expansion of Yoko #2 and build the fourth one there, for availability in mid ’41 or early ’42.

If you do that, and forego the whacko stuff, you can pull in either the Kasagi or Katsuragi, or maybe both, as Taihos, or Kai “kakus. The fiddly bits can go to Yoko #2 as originally configured. Slip Ko (Yoko #2) could do it and there would still be room/time for expansion to 270m to accommodate the Unryus by mid ‘42.

This says nothing about Yoko #1 and the Shinano hull. If there’s no Yamatos, then Yoko #1 is good to go on another “kaku” for launch in mid ’41. And available to build a Kai-Taiho for late ’43 launch.

All this is predicated on no Yamatos. If you tweak the yards, as above, there is no opportunity to build any of them, except at Mitsubishi, Nagasaki, or Yoko #1, and then not till keel in late ’40 and launch in late ’43 and operational in in late ’44.

Just MHO. Ciao. JWE

Now that is what I was driving at. If you don't pay all that money and time to expand the two slipways then some interesting possibilities occur.

I am thinking of a variant from either RA or BTS where this possibility is allowed for.

John--will look at your modernized Amagi link.

Alfred: Always appreciate your thoughts and totally concur regarding your point.

Thanks Skyros for your thoughts.

I have that link already printed off from when I played the whole 'slip game' trying to figure out what could and/or could not be built in RA and BTS. Remember in both of those Mods we allow for the creation of two new heavy slipways at Port Arthur to make things a bit more 'feasible.' Cost is big but we factored it out in supply and fuel being pulled out of the historical Dec 7th numbers.

John,
Your killing me.[:D][:D][:D].

Got to ask, What sort of a change could the allies make, balance wise?....GP

No idea whatsoever. Don't even know if there would be. To say that this is in the 'formative' stage is an understatement.

John and John are putting forth what I was looking for GP. The Allies already have enough extras in BTS. I was talking with J3 about what could be built INSTEAD of the super-BBs - slightly smaller BBs, BCs, some CVs, or maybe some more smaller warships. Looking at another version of RA and/or BTS that allows a player to make this choice before a game begins since we are already dealing with an alternative time line to start with. If one super BB equals two BC, I could see that with a few more CVs and come close to another CarDiv being built.

YUM!

Am going into my old Perfect War files to see what we came up with there. I know Juan helped a bunch with those designs.

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Now that is what I was driving at. If you don't pay all that money and time to expand the two slipways then some interesting possibilities occur.

Yes Sir. Given your premise, I think it is quite possible for Japan to build 2x modern Amagi BCs and 2x modern Kai-Kii BBs, certainly by mid '42, within the constraints of yard space and steel production (tweaked).

I tend to agree with Alfred, because of the Mahan math, but running some hi-speed capital ships here and there, and facing off with North Carolinas, and So Daks, might play well in the game. Of course, once '43 happens, and the Iowas come to play, you are toast. But as a nice middle war option, could be decent.

Just MHO. Ciao. JWE

"Toast!" Isn't that the operational word for Nippon in 1943--44?

John: How would YOU build a 'modern' Kai BB?

Now I am going back into Perfect War Mod notes...

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
John and John are putting forth what I was looking for GP. The Allies already have enough extras in BTS. I was talking with J3 about what could be built INSTEAD of the super-BBs - slightly smaller BBs, BCs, some CVs, or maybe some more smaller warships. Looking at another version of RA and/or BTS that allows a player to make this choice before a game begins since we are already dealing with an alternative time line to start with. If one super BB equals two BC, I could see that with a few more CVs and come close to another CarDiv being built.

I think the Vinson Plan was what it was. It didn't matter whether Japan was building a couple of secret super BBs, or just building building what they could. The Vinson Plan contemplated vessels that would/could confront anything that Japan built.

So worrying about two Yamatos vs four 'conventional' designs is a shibboleth. One can play hard in the margins for a while. But then, one must play with the other boys in the sandbox. Hootz Gazootz. Ciao. JWE

The sandbox ALWAYS wins!

Rather than build just more slightly smaller BB/BCs, but more numerous. What was Japan capable of building?? Two of the smaller BB or BC along with a couple more CVs with DDs??

I believe that this was one of Juan's designs from actual design studies of various ships before the Japanese settled on Yamato. This is what we came up with for Perfect War:

If you run on the time schedule John went through, could you squeeze in another Hiryu Class? Japan starts with two modern BBs, a CV, a BC, and another pair of SOMETHING (BBs, BCs, or CVs) deeply in production...