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Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:00 am
by Orm
I calculated the odds table for this attack to 7:1 +1 assault but it appears that I made some error in my calculation. Could anyone please assist me with the odds calculation on this attack and explain why I am in error (or why MWIF is in error).

Image

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:05 am
by Joseignacio
Forgive me if I am wrong, because there is a long time I don't use MWIF and I am getting unaccustomed to the units status' buttons, but..,

I f I am not wrong that is a disorganized OOS black print unit. It's value is 1, doubled by mountain means 2.

You have 3+2+6+6 = 17 and (4+4)/2=4 for a total of 21.

21/2 = 10,5:1 Automatic, even with a -2 of the climate (and the +1 of disorganized) in case the 7:1 is counted after the ratio.

In case the lower ones are behind a river as well (couldn't really tell) that would be:

3+2+ ((6+6+4+4)/2)=15 15/2= 7,5

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:59 am
by Orm
Only the two northern 4 strength units attack across river.

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:23 am
by warspite1
Isn't this a known bug that has been around since the start and whereby an automatic attack is not then reduced for weather etc - but instead remains automatic?

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:37 am
by Orm
ORIGINAL: warspite1

Isn't this a known bug that has been around since the start and whereby an automatic attack is not then reduced for weather etc - but instead remains automatic?
I do not remember. Maybe it is and it has been fixed in later versions.

Fortunately it did not matter in our game since the attacker can not take any losses on 7:1 +1 and the turn ended after this so a disorganized result would not have mattered either.

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:40 am
by Joseignacio
I am not used to the 1d10 table, but I asked one of my mates and it's like I thought in assault it's an automatic win a 10.1 and you had a 10.5:1.

(I wonder why he told me it's automatic in a blitz with a 7:1 but I don't care much for we use 2D10 and lately 3d10.)

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:41 am
by warspite1
ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Isn't this a known bug that has been around since the start and whereby an automatic attack is not then reduced for weather etc - but instead remains automatic?
I do not remember. Maybe it is and it has been fixed in later versions.

Fortunately it did not matter in our game since the attacker can not take any losses on 7:1 +1 and the turn ended after this so a disorganized result would not have mattered either.
warspite1

I may be wrong but that was my recollection - I am sure it cropped up in an earlier AARse. Disappointing that it still hangs around.

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:42 am
by warspite1
ORIGINAL: Joseignacio

I am not used to the 1d10 table, but I asked one of my mates and it's like I thought in assault it's an automatic win a 10.1 and you had a 10.5:1.

(I wonder why he told me it's automatic in a blitz with a 7:1 but I don't care much for we use 2D10 and lately 3d10.)
warspite1

Yes - its automatic - except there is then the need to reduce the combat odds for weather.

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:47 am
by Joseignacio
On second thought I don't find written in the rules anything about an automatic attacker win, although in MWIF:

Image

But this is the table after all modifiers, IIRW, I see ypur point now, so it would be

10.5 rounded 10 (in favour of defender and because 10 is max.).
- 2 for climate
+1 for disorganized

Total 9, not 10.hmmm

RE: Odds calculation

Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:23 am
by Orm
As I understand it should be as follows.

21:2 = 10.5:1
-2 in odds for weather which gives the odds 8.5:1 but the fractional odds roll is irrelevant since both 8:1 and 9:1 are reduced to 7:1 on the assault table.

The +1 for disorganized is a attack die roll modifier and do not affect the odds calculation.