East Front in Torch 4th Supreme Command Not Right

[joliverlay]

OK

Here is a save. In the 4th Supreme Command Scenario I've kept forces above historical as axis in the East Front Box and I'm losing ground much faster than in the normal 1943 scenario. Maybe 6th months faster than historical and this is supposed to be the "enhanced" Axis Scenario.

For comparison I've played the normal 43 campaign and have no problem delaying the russian advance doing the same thing. Why do extra forces in the EF box not do the same thing in this scenario?

[Joel Billings]

You seem to be doing ok. The Soviets are only two hexes ahead of schedule and you've only lost 25 VPs in the east. I do see that manpower is an issue for you. You say you've withdrawn all the units from the west that they did historically? I think that the current east front system burns up manpower faster than it did historically, but that doesn't mean that it will end early. There is a lot of randomness in the east front results, but it has been made tougher over the past 6 months as we found the early versions of the game were not as difficult for the Germans as it should have been.

[Denniss]

The EFB losses should/need to factor in the relative strengths of the opposing forces.
With stable front the Soviets should not easily be able to advance or break through, certainly not advance further than with historical forces in EFB and fluid condition.

[joliverlay]

Please note, I moved almost if not the entire Luftwaffe Level Bomber Force and Tactical Bomber force to the East. I kept the forces total well above stable from the first mud turn until the save file, every single turn.

I don't know what to think about two hexes ahead of schedule, I'm two hexes from Warsaw about 6 months before that should have happened in real life and one hex from cutting off the baltic states. In this game despite it being designed for enhanced axis, I may lose Warsaw and the Baltics before D-Day. So the other question I have is, have you checked that the "historical" x coordinate is correct? Warsaw did not fall until quite some time after D-Day if I remember correctly. (I can't look it up where I am now.)

Finally the AP allocation in the text description of the game is not in agreement with what the editor shows. I mentioned this elsewhere, did someone check.

[joliverlay]

BTW, I don't have the game file open and I might miss by a week or by a hex in my discussion, because I'm going from memory. So please consider the general issue. I made a deliberate attempt in this scenario to strip the west of the air force (except FBs, patrol, and recon), and move nothing out of the east to see how much I could slow the russians down. After about 5 turns I've been well above stable continuously. The fact is, I've delayed them (russians) much more in three attempts with the normal "43" campaign, and they are no where near taking Warsaw early. The advancement of the russians was so fast in this scenario I felt like playing it was a waste of time.

[joliverlay]

I'm supposed to be working, but this is bothering me. I opened a save game file from the same game. In that game on May 6 1944, the Russians are 4 hexes from Warsaw.

In real life the uprising began in August 1944, and Warsaw itself did not fall until 17th January.

For my game to be as good as historical I will have to keep the Russians from advancing 4 hexes in 34 turns (May 6th to January 17th). I might as well play with the East front box off. But I don't want to do that. I'm not playing for points, I'm playing to defend Berlin for as long as possible from either side in the 4th Supreme Command Scenario.

Can you see why I quite playing this scenario?

[Joel Billings]

I was just going by the hex number versus the month. You are at hex 206 instead of the historical 208. Now as far as where the front line shows on the map, I agree it seems far to the west. I checked with Gary and looked at some other test games, and found that when the front line gets to 206, the front line can jump from 10 hexes east of Minsk to a few hexes from Warsaw. I remember there being some randomness in how it changes, but what you experienced is not unique and does not mean that things will necessarily be very bad for the Germans for the rest of the game (although you should probably start sending some units east to prevent a continued slide in the front line being worse than historical). As you are playing at the normal difficulty level, you probably have a greater threat from the Soviets than from the AI Allies (although the Allies seem to be scoring fairly well with their bombing campaign).

As for the results in the east, keep in mind that if you are 1 point into the stable range, then you have a 50.1% chance of being Stable and 49.9% chance of being Fluid. Even if you are far into the stable range there's a good chance of it being Fluid on any given turn. The air force is nice, but not a lot of CV value. One panzer division can be worth 500 aircraft. The Germans historically sent 10 divisions east between Oct-Dec 43 (half pz/mech), and another 5 in the first 4 months of 44. They did bring a few back after D-day. Did you send any of these units east, or just the air force?

[joliverlay]

No I did not send any new units East. But on the other hand I did not withdraw any of the panzer divisions that were withdrawn beforehand because of the invasion of Sicily.

On the Mud and Snow turns I have often had 5500 points of Axis versus 2500 Soviet On the good weather turns its been more like 5600 Axis to 5100 Soviet. In bad weather I repaired everything I could will keeping the number of divisions at or above the minimum. Thats why manpower is a bit low.

[joliverlay]

As for the results in the east, keep in mind that if you are 1 point into the stable range, then you have a 50.1% chance of being Stable and 49.9% chance of being Fluid

That's not what I mean by stable.

May 6 1944 Axis 4448, Stable 3046, Fluid 1523 Based on the formula (I'm 3X the fluid level and 1000 points higher than stable, maybe the front should have some small chance of being pushed back into Russia! This random thing maybe should work both ways.

So Axis is not one point higher, it is 3X higher.

[joliverlay]

Sorry for fragmenting my response. I post as I notice things that seem relevant.

[quote]One panzer division can be worth 500 aircraft.

Panzer Divisions look to be worth 40-50 points each max. I have 343 points of air power in the EF box. I have something like 4300 aircraft in the EF box. So moving stuff there does make a difference. The 603 transports I moved to the east are worth as much as my best panzer division at full strength. There is a lot of aircraft if you move them in mass. As the top Axis commander I choose to try to stop the Russians in the East. Also, if the casualty rate is lower if the force levels are more equal (as I expect and the game claims) I expect to gain over time by keeping the Axis point count well above stable, at least until the Allies crush me in the west.

[Joel Billings]

In the case where you have 4448 CV, each turn your CV is calculated as follows: Total CV=total+Random(total/2)-Random(total/2). So starting with 4448, you can end up with a value between 2224 and 6672. If the value falls below 3046, it will be Fluid, if below 1523, it will be Critical. So at the moment you're in good shape as far as the current turn with only a fairly small chance of ending up with a Fluid turn. You are in the mud stage which makes things fairly safe. However, the fact that the front had moved to 206 in previous turns meant that at some point the front line was going to suddenly shift. Not very realistic turn by turn to have such a big shift especially in mud, but indicative of the overall progress to date over the long haul. Bottom line is all you can do is postpone the inevitable on the eastern front. The fact that you haven't withdrawn the 17 divisions was offset somewhat by your increased airpower and not withdrawing the units in summer 43 (but not completely).

[joliverlay]

Turn 4 in the 4th Supreme Command Scenario.

Last turn I moved 3 Panzer Divisions and a HQ into the East Front Box. I've already moved all of my tactical bombers and transports in and nothing out.

Axis Total Combat Value 5302, Stable 6656, Fluid 3328

This turn I lose 2 full hexes, and I've gone from historical to 2 hexes less than historical, and I'm playing the scenario that says the battle of Kursk did not occur and the German position is enhanced as they are prepared for the Russian attack.

I think this system if flawed. I think a +Random(total/3)-Random(total/3) would be more reasonable. A big divisor can help more if you don't have sufficient forces in the east and you need the lucky role, but a smaller division makes the outcome less dependent on luck and more on the forces involved. I agree 1 wont work, but 2 was a poor choice in my opinion, unless you want to introduce the possibility of pushing the Russians back with a "great" die roll and a big force.

Can you make it possible for us to modify this value with the editor please?

[joliverlay]

I said that backwards. I big + or - (range) in outcomes requires a small divisor. But you get the point. The addition of a variability is good. A normal distribution in both directions is also ok, but the range is to big.

I'd like to suggest that for the scenarios where the germans are in a better situation would benefit from dividing the value by 3 or 4 rather than 2.

Sorry for the confusion in my posts.