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A couple of days ago I saw a documentary on the History Channel about the death of Admiral Yamamoto.
It said that USN ambushed Yamamoto's Betty with P-38s and shot it down. So, actually USN assasinated him. Yamamoto died with age of 59 on April 18, 1943 on the sky of Buganville.
He lived 3 years more than his name. (His given name means 56. Wierd name.) Anyway, if he had survived the ambush and continued to command IJN, would the course of war have been different?
Was he really worth of risk and efforts taken by USN to assasinate him? They knew that by ambushing and killing Yamamoto, they might reveal that they had broken the code of IJN. What do you think?

I think the course that the war took was inevitable. Yamamato himself had warned against going to war because he know of its inevitable results.

Would killing him have prolonged the agony? Probably not. The Japanese did not really make blunders towards the end of the war. They were completely outclassed and outgunned. I don't think it really mattered who was in charge.

They were goiing to end up getting the A-Bomb dropped on them anyway. It didn't matter which Japanese admiral was calling the shots. I suppose you could argue that Yamamato could have convinced them to sue for peace earlier, but they didn't listen to his warnings about not starting the war to begin with.

Come to think of it, if Admiral Yamamoto had survived, he might not have approved using Kamikaze tactic, so USN wouldn't have suffered so much.

I'm curious ... If Pearl had fallen due to the CV's being caught in port instead of just what historically happened, how do you think the war would have turned out?

Without Pearl (follow that Midway/etc would have vanished too), the USA staging abilities would have been virtually nill, coupled to the fight being carried out of the malaria infested jungle that caused such hardships to both sides.

Yes, the A-Bomb shortened the war from hand fighting in the streets of Japan, but the war was already lost by then.

Even if the IJN had sunk all 8 BBs at Pearl -and- every CV in the theater at the time, -and- not have lost 4 CVs at Midway, they STILL would have lost the war.

Doing that much damage would have pushed the war out a year, maybe even 2, but Japan -NEVER- threated US production capacity, and THAT is was killed Japan.

Number of CVE/CVL/CV produced
by USA = 141
by Japan = 17

Number of aircraft produced
by USA = 324,750
by Japan = 76,320

Number of tonnes of merchant shipping produced
by USA = 33,993,230
by Japan = 4,152,361

Even if IJN had sunk all 3 US carriers at Midway, and not lost any of their own, by 1945, the lineup would still be...

USN = Saratoga (88), Wasp (76), Essex (91), Bunker Hill (91), Yorktown (91), Lexington (91), Wasp (91), Intrepid (91), Hornet (91), Franklin (91), Ticonderoga (91), Hancock (91), Bennington (91), Shangri-La (91), Bon Homme Richard (91), Randolph (91), Antietam (91), Lake Champlain (91), Boxer (91), Kearsarge (91), Princeton II (91), Oriskany (91), Tarawa (91), Coral Sea (120), Franklin Roosevelt (120), Independence (33), Princeton (33), Belleau Wood (33), Cowpens (33), Monterey (33), Langley (33), Bataan (33), San Jacinto (33)

INJ = Kaga (90), Akagi (91), Soryu (71), Hiryu (73), Zuikaku (84), Shokaku (84), Taiho (60), Unryu (65), Shinano (45), Amagi (65), Katsuragi (65), Kasagi (?) (65), Aso (?) (65), Ikoma (?) (65), Ibuki (?) (27), Ryujo (38), Zuiho (30), Chiyoda (30), Chitose (30)
* IJN ships with "?" were in construction but never used.

Total USN capacity = 2612
Total IJN capacity = 1163

Link for production data


Japan never stood a chance.
-F-

This link poses and interesting argument as to why the Battle of Midway did not matter in the long run.

http://64.124.221.191/economic.htm

This one shows why the Japanese probably would never have managed to invade PH.

http://64.124.221.191/pearlops.htm

If Yammamoto was against going to war, why did he plan PH?
From what I have read, when the military leaders of Japan (tojo,nagano) decided to seize DEI and NG, Yamamoto stated that this would bring the USA into the war. He said that since they were committed to south expansion, American fleet must be neutralized first, then hopefull USA would negotiate a peace after a year of so. To my understanding, he commited 2 grave errors of judgment:
1-Attack on PH galvanized US opinion to win unconditional victory, and did not lead to US leaders sueing for peace.
2-Attack on DEI did not mean an inevitable war the the US, FDR stated that if Japan attacked DEI, he would ask for a declaration of war against Japan. THis does not mean that FDR would have gotten such a Declaration of War.

I agree with the above that the war was lost in 1943 no matter who was in charge and actually may have cost US more casualties in the long run with the Kamakazi attacks. His father was 56 when he was born

Yamamoto was following orders. He was Admiral of the Combined Fleet. He was not the IJN equivalent of the Naval Chief of Staff, and he was not a part of the government (ie, not in the cabinet).

The government was the level that decided to fight the war. As a senior naval commander, Yamamoto had some ability to argue against a war with the United States. But it was not his final decision.

Once the decision was made to go to war with the United States, then Yamamoto did the best he could as a military commmander to win the war for his country. In this case, he planned the raid on Pearl Harbor to try to neutralize the American fleet which had been forward based there.

The tricky part is that if you attack the DEI, you leave the Phillipines astride your supply lines from DEI to Japan. So you are taking a huge gamble on whether or not FDR would get the DoW. If the gamble doesn't go your way, you are in a very nasty position.

Also, at the end of 1941, the US had made a major change in its force basing and strategy in the Pacific. From the end of WWI till that time, it was assumed that the Phillipines woudl fall, and that the US fleet would sortie from Hawaii to retake the Phillipines. In the second half of 1941, the decision was made to change this and begin to try to defend the Phillipines. This was then to be used as a base for B-17 from which they could attack Japan.

So at the end of 1941, the US was scrambling to move forces out to the Phillipines, and also raise, train and support a Phillipine army that could defend the islands. The US commanders knew they were bluffing for what they felt was three more months. They were saying if they got three more months, then they could get enough military force into the Phillipines to hold the islands and also use it as a base for offensive air operations.

It would have been a very interesting vote as to whether FDR would have gotten his DoW against Japan. It was very tight, but FDR was winning votes on items like the draft by a vote or two. He may very well have won that vote.

For Japan to have tried to bypass the Phillipines and the US to attack the British and the Dutch (the British would definitely DoW'd on an attack on Duth islands) would have been a huge gamble. If the US got time to get strong forces into the Phillipines, and then entered the war against Japan, Japan would have been in a horrible strategic situation.

Now toss the ultimate curve ball into the mess ... Germany shows some brains and fights a one-front war ... I want UV at the world level, starting in 1937

You know a game with the WITP engine and level of detail expanded to the World conflict 1937 - 1945 could be done if it went the Linux path.

It would take a small group a very long time, but with open code and a group of quality contol peers it would be possible in a reasonable time frame.

UV engine on a world scale.

(* Feinder's brain explodes................ *)

Well. We can always dream.
-F-

(* Feinder's brain explodes................ *)

Got something better to play for the next 3 years?

If you do, might I suggest a divorce?

Originally posted by Mr.Frag
Now toss the ultimate curve ball into the mess ... Germany shows some brains and fights a one-front war ... I want UV at the world level, starting in 1937

Perhaps you've seen my globe map of the world? It's actual size ... I have it stored rotating around a small yellow star in an out-of-the way part of the unremarkable galaxy known as the Milky Way (which is itself part of an average-sized cluster of galaxies) ...

How about combining Uncommon Valor and Master of Orion for UV at the universal level?

Ultimate curve ball, indeed (yes, I've been off my meds for awhile, but I'm feeling MUCH better now).