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My first CG vs what I feel a much better opponent is in my Soviet turn 13. The Axis player took Leningrad and Kharkov in August, I am on pace to lose Moscow, Stalino, and Rostov in September. My only consolation is my casualty count of 2.3M men is seems low (28.5K guns, 11.8K AFVs, 7934 planes; 6500 on the first turn). Axis losses is 152K men, 2.5K guns, 1268 AFVs, 688 planes. But a lot of population centers are obviously lost or will be before mud. Axis VP is at 214 out of possible 332.

What I cannot assess is if the game is already effectively won by the Axis. If it is otherwise still a game, I will plug on. However if I am merely a substitute for AI in a pointless activity, there is always another game to play. it is only worthwhile to play Soviets to get to the mid-game, but one has to survive Barbarossa to get to the mid-game.

My other subsequent games are in T7 as Soviet and T21 as Axis vs a different player closer to my level. I am too much a casual player with broad game playing interests and limited discretionary to aim to become top tier player in this title. I am best described as one who plays, at best up to a proficient mediocre player.

The first thing to consider is the campaign victory conditions. From bitter end to classic or VC260 it change a lot.
And what did you lost as factory ?

Second point is as my AAR (and others) show, that you can loose a lot of ground and still being able to fight.

In my current game, i was in the same situation than you in 1941, then decided to concentrate all my troops (Really, all my troops) at moscow and managed to hold it. (And also holding voronev, but loosing rostov).

In your situation, i would choose one area to defend big time, between moscow and Rostov/Stalino and concentrate whatever it take to hold it. (Maybe you could tried south ?, It would be easier to defend it in 1941, and you could use also stalingrad area to resist too in 1942).

Remove tons of troops from others parts of the front. (For example, as leningrad is down, northern front is now useless and finland troops cannot conquer too much because of limit line).

Then in 1942 you will have a big battle in the area you defended.

The key for your defense in 1941 is : do not hesitate to really concentrate 75% of all your troops where you want to defend. There are psychological factors that often prevent us from scrapping entire parts of front to send renforcement elsewhere. Overcome it.

To really have a chance as the soviets you have to stick to the 1941 campaign as it requires the axis to need like 35 more victory points for sudden victory. You also have to make sure you use the default severe winter, and soviets +1 attack. If you play with any of these 3 changed anyone with a sound understanding of the game and your done.

my 2 cents