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In my games it seems that the Germans can only break the pact with Russia later than I see in other players’ AARs . I haven’t done the math but I’m guessing Germany is being too conservative with keeping troops in the west or not putting enough higher point units on Garrison duty early enough.

Also if it looks like Barbarossa will be late, would the Germans ever forgoe it altogether, forcing the soviets to break the pact and DOW? In the current game (late 41) the US was able to DOW japan to avoid pearl harbour but the US has only a 10% chance of a DOW on Germany / Italy. The USSR declared war on Japan to “get in the game” but Italy is stubbornly refusing to DOW the CW in order to go after the Balkans with Germany. The CW doesn’t want to DOW Italy at this point because of the risk to the US DOW on Germany ... and as Germany sees it, “sitzkreig” is looming and so may not be eager to break the pact. Of course at some point the axis would have to DOW minor countries in any event so things will change in terms of US DOW on Germany/ Italy.

In a bid game I could see this all being possible but if just playing for total points ...?

Maybe it is a matter of luck (with drawn garrison values), but I never had any problems with Germany breaking the pact.
Not even if Russia stacked the common border with everything. Ofc you must build for it -lots of land units, calculate and possibly empty the Atlantik Wall. Personally I'm not really afraid of doing the latter (if needed), for the allies are in no position to (successfully!) land in Europe at this point.

On the same note, with Germany I never wanted to play with the option to make breaking the pact easier because it feels too opportunistic to me. If you want to go for Barbarossa, you would want that option but if you want to hold off Russia while going south (Gibraltar, Med) you wouldn't.

Barbarossa happens, or it doesn't happen. It depends on the strategy chosen by the Euroaxis. Will they go for Gibraltar or will they attack the Soviets. That decision has to made the moment the first production phase starts. Building the right mix of units from the first turn on is very important for Germany if they want to break the pact (the GAR, MIL and MTN pool should be emptied and MECH are also quite valuable for breaking the pact). Simply leave a couple units in France to get rid of partisans and the rest goes into Poland. Align as many minors as you can in 1940 and use those units to boost the garrison ratio in your favour.

Unless you have drawn only 0's and 1's as markers, you should be able to break the pact somewhere close to M/J 1941.

Another trick is to have a Japanese force in Manchuria forcing the Soviets to keep units in Siberia, or else. The loss of valuable resources in Siberia is something which is very damaging for the Soviets, so they need to have units present there...

Thanks - sorry offline for a bit. I’m guessing as Germany I’m putting way too much into the Atlantic wall. I find it’s late 41 at best to break the pact and the reason seems to be I’ve got too much in the west- I do try to send ‘2’ point garrisons but the point is I guess that the allies might be be able to organize a raid or two but they aren’t going anywhere. As Axis I’ve never tried going for Gibraltar. Well I did - but I was learning and it was a debacle.

I’ve never felt Russia needs to worry too much in the east- but then again I’ve never had Japan really resource a front with the USSR. We all tend to play a certain way and think that’s the way it is but then someone makes a completely different strategic decision and it’s a different game as they say...