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Four times now, Poland has not surrendered on Axis turn 2 under the following conditions: Warsaw occupied by Axis, most Polish border armies destroyed or reduced, most western Polish cities occupied, Axis units took only light casualties, Red Army crossed the border. The last two times this happened I quit the game and re-loaded the saved immediately preceding Axis turn (i.e., the turn on which the Axis took Warsaw), and following the end of turn Poland surrendered as it normally should. Seems like a bug.

Surrender is not automatic when you capture a capital as there is a test that is run which checks against the number of surviving enemy units. Depending on the result of the test the country will either surrender right away or have the chance to survive surrender on that turn. Typically if enough enemy units have been destroyed (enemy Polish units in this case), then the country will surrender, but if not then as you've seen in your games there is a chance for them to continue.

This is useful in situations where let's say the bulk of the Soviet Army is still intact but the USSR has lost its capitals, this gives them a chance to possibly survive a bit longer and so on. But in most cases when there are very few surviving enmey units the country will surrender right away.

Thanks for the explanation Hubert.