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It's early '42 and i am ready to move into singapore from johor bahru. do i need 3 or 4 whole divisions or is 2 + others enough?

Are you playing AI? It is a completely different picture with AI and I couldn't really comment.

How many Allied units cut off and not into Singapore? Did they reinforce Singapore or send them elsewhere? Any sense of fort level? How tight has your control over supply ingress been?

In 9-10 games as Allies versus real players I have lost Singapore 3 times. In one of the 3 the IJA needed months of bombardment, both land and air, and 9 x divisions plus ancillaries. My opponent says that by the end most of the 9 divisions were savaged. Singapore fell in that game in mid-May '42.

...on the other hand, sometimes the Japanese conquer Singers easily with two or three divisions. That usually happens when the base is taken early, the Allies haven't had time to bring in reinforcements and build forts, and supply is low.

You can initially enter with less. If he wants to attack you he'll hurt himself and use up supplies he can't replace. You on the other hand will easily replace whatever losses and supplies you use. Send something in and start digging in.

I would Recon the base as well....GP

Absolutely true...the 3 times I lost Singapore my opponent got serious about keeping his foot on my neck...the earlier the better. If I have snuck 125k of supplies in and achieved level 4 forts it becomes a major endeavor for IJA to take. If you haven't been careful about what is going into Singapore, and you have not been bombing continually to keep fort construction impeded you may face serious problems.....As old lizard breath says, look before you leap...(sorry not the lizards suggestion)

I don't believe I ever bothered putting 18th Division or many of the Dec-Jan reinforcements into Singapore.

i've kept the airfield damaged since day 1 so no extra forts.
i don't think anything extra got in except from johore bahru, some may have got out.
it's consistently shown about 30 units, 50,000 troops, 400 guns and 250 AFVs

ORIGINAL: johnbmac

i've kept the airfield damaged since day 1 so no extra forts.
i don't think anything extra got in except from johore bahru, some may have got out.
it's consistently shown about 30 units, 50,000 troops, 400 guns and 250 AFVs

The game calls all vehicles AFVs. Most of them are trucks and jeeps. Most likely the only AFVs at Singers are armoured cars.
Guns in a roll-over pop-up means all manner of guns including AA and mortars. There are not a great many field guns and howitzers available to fight an attack from the north. Most of those are small caliber.
Most of the troop count are support troops like HQ and BFs and construction troops. The fighting units also have around 50% of their strength in support troops. So you have maybe 6-10 K infantry and combat engineers. Of those, most have low experience, low morale and almost no prep for Singers. They are short on TOE (especially anti-tank guns and AA) and short on supply. The tiger is made of wet paper ...

Have your armor on reserve pursuit mode and follow the enemy in the same turn. You won't have a shock attack.

ORIGINAL: johnbmac

i've kept the airfield damaged since day 1 so no extra forts.
i don't think anything extra got in except from johore bahru, some may have got out.
it's consistently shown about 30 units, 50,000 troops, 400 guns and 250 AFVs

You're probably fine then but you should bring all you can and also bomb the troops.

Make damm sure 1. you are prepped, 2. you have enough HQs, 3. you have every ENG (combat) that you can lay hands on, 4. you have consolidated all you can into full division, 5. you have replaced any week leaders, 6. if long-term pissing match ensues ensure you rotate disrupted/fatigued units for fresh

Good luck....you never did say whether AI or PBEM

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: johnbmac
i've kept the airfield damaged since day 1 so no extra forts.
i don't think anything extra got in except from johore bahru, some may have got out.
it's consistently shown about 30 units, 50,000 troops, 400 guns and 250 AFVs

You're probably fine then but you should bring all you can and also bomb the troops.

+1
Apart from an unfavourable die roll (it can happen in Grigsby games) you will be fine with 2 divisions and support. Specifically bombing is very important, forts are a significant defence multiplier. On the other hand, I once captured AI singers on Dec 15 via first shock attack with 2 divisions and tanks/arty/HQs without much bombing. AI did not have time to build forts since Singers starts with port damage to repair

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

Apart from an unfavourable die roll (it can happen in Grigsby games)

And don't forget Murphy was an optimist.