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Stand fast or manoeuvre? Stalingrad to Berlin Campaign Ewald von Kleist (Axis) vs. Elma666 (Soviets)

The Stalingrad to Berlin Campaign is part of the Lost Battles expansion for WitE and it starts with the Soviet counterattack to encircle the German 6th army in Stalingrad.

It is the third or fourth game played between us. We agreed on non-random weather and standard CV. No house rules except for limitation to two paradrops per year, not more than three hexagons behind the frontline. Otherwise total war. At the moment we plan to play until the last turn of the Summer 1943, but the game may well be continued if the situation is still interesting at this point.

The situation in the game is a new challenge as WitE is my first wargame and no 1941 game went beyond that year (apart from the team game), while the only other scenario I played is Vistula to Berlin 1945, which basically is Operation Barbarossa reversed. So I am used to fluid situations and Blitzkrieg, while StB will consist of positional warfare and defending against a slightly stronger enemy force, an unknown situation.
To help coping with this new situation, I will discuss some theory which hopefully combines entertainment with some food for thought and debate.

Feedback on the style of the AAR is very welcome, is it easy to read on all screen resolutions?

When using quotes make sure to keep them to a sensible size, matryoshka quotes can disrupt the appearance of the thread, especially if they contain much text/image.

Table of contents
Marked with colour are parts of the AAR which contain theory or general considerations.
T0, the initial situation
T2, 26.11.1942-before Axis operations/the home front/the reform program/after Axis operations/alternative Stalingrad pocket
T3, 03.12.1942-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T4, 10.12.1942-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T5, 17.12.1942-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T6, 24.12.1942-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T7, 31.12.1942-before Axis operations/Soviet propaganda/after Axis operations
T8, 07.01.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations/Axis propaganda
T9, 14.01.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations/some doctrine
T10, 21.01.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T11, 28.01.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations/animation of the moving frontline
T12, 28.01.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T13, 04.02.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T14, 11.02.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T15, 18.02.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations
T16, 04.03.1943-before Axis operations/after Axis operations

+1 Subscribed.

Time to get out the popcorn.

T0, the initial situation
The game begins on 19.11.1942 with the Soviets going first. The frontline stretches from Leningrad to the Caucasus, taking a tortuous path with multiple salients. The Axis have 50AP per turn to the 60AP of the Soviets.
The Soviet side has a large share of the front frozen for 1-4 turns, marked with a blue line on the map. Further units are in static mode. The command and control situation is mixed, most armies are around their limit, but the Rshew salient is guarded by many overloaded HQs.
There is a worrying shortage of trucks both in units and pool, only going to get worse during the blizzard. A railcap of 105k allows quick build ups and major strategic movement. A huge number of partisan units has infested the Axis rear area. The units on average are at their national morale of 49, slightly below in the North, slightly above at Rshew and Stalingrad. The motorised formations at Stalingrad considerably exceed their NM.

The Axis side has no units frozen in the East, yet many are set to static mode. The shortage of trucks is comparable to the Soviets, the command and control situation is equally difficult with Corps, Armies and Army Groups overloaded. Many units are split up, exacerbating the situation.
The extended salients in the Centre South are worrying, the flanks at Stalingrad are held by very routy Rumanians and Italians. The NM of 70 is exceeded by many infantry units in the North and Centre and matched by the infantry elsewhere. Units with non-standard NM are below their NM. Especially the motorised forces are disappointing, some of them are even in static mode.


Time to look at the overall force ratio.


136k Soviet manpower and no Axis manpower is in the pool.

As an approximation of the CV of an element, one can use the formula base CV*morale/100*experience/100. To compare the strength of the armies, we will try to convert all ground equipment to infantry and then apply the formula to get an approximation for the CV ratio.
We use the exchange rates 1 AFV=>30 men and 1 gun=>1 men. Why? A tank has a base CV of 9, a rifle squad with around 10 men of 3. So 1 tank=30 men CV wise. But it isn't that simple. The tank requires men to operate, so you have to substract its crew. A men may be assigned to equipment without CV, so you would have to add some men to compensate for this. But there are AFV types with less than 9CV. In the end we hope that it all cancels out and we remain at the exchange ratio 30:1. Artillery is ignored, it causes losses and therefore influences final CV, but also sucks up manpower which then is not available for elements with actual CV.

We also assume that the same share of manpower contributes to CV for both sides.

Soviets: 5.8 mio manpower on map+pool+0.45 mio converted AFV manpower from map+pool=6.25 mio. 6.25 mio*0,5*0,5=1.56 mio adjusted manpower

Axis: Germany 3.1 mio non-frozen manpower+0.13 mio converted AFV manpower=3.23 mio. 3.23 mio*0.7*0.7=1.58 mio adjusted manpower

Axis allies: 0.7 mio non-frozen non finnish manpower 0.7 mio*0.45*0.45=0.14 mio adjusted manpower

So overall force ratio stands at 1.56 mio adjusted for Soviets and 1.72 mio adjusted for the Axis.
Given that the WitE engine seems to have some bias for sheer mass and that the Axis has to guard against partisans and sees more men parked in non-CV elements, the raw CV strength can be assumed to be equal, maybe with slight advantage for the Soviets.

If you account for the garrison forces and city flak etc., Axis active manpower is around 3.6 million men. Not great, not terrible.

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

I will add a bit more and do some proof-reading later, have to leave the PC now to meet the human needs of social contact

??? Please explain this term, 'the human needs of social contact'. Do you mean staff meetings to plan strategy and resource allocation?

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

If you account for the garrison forces and city flak etc., Axis active manpower is around 3.6 million men. 3.6, not great, not terrible.

You didn't see the Soviets massing for a counterattack. You didn't. You didn't!!! Because the reserves aren't there!

Will be following the AAR!

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist



If you account for the garrison forces and city flak etc., Axis active manpower is around 3.6 million men. 3.6, not great, not terrible.

*6th army gets encircled*

Paulus: I was on the toilet

+1 looking forward to this one!

You didn't see the Soviets massing for a counterattack. You didn't. You didn't!!! Because the reserves aren't there!

What, are you suggesting that, what, the Soviets are preparing for a major strategic offensive? You are an officer, so am I. So please tell me, how can the primitive Russians prepare a complex counterattack? Not tactical, strategical. Go to the 6th Army and report back on the situation. It will be fine, you will see.

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

What, are you suggesting that the Soviets are preparing for a major strategic offensive? You are an officer, so am I. So please tell me, how can the primitive Russians prepare a complex counterattack? Not tactical, strategical. Go to the 6th Army and report back on the situation. It will be fine, you will see.

Nice to meet you, Dr. Pangloss. You have a great future as an adviser to Hitler.

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
What, are you suggesting that the Soviets are preparing for a major strategic offensive? You are an officer, so am I. So please tell me, how can the primitive Russians prepare a complex counterattack? Not tactical, strategical. Go to the 6th Army and report back on the situation. It will be fine, you will see.

Nice to meet you, Dr. Pangloss. You have a great future as an adviser to Hitler.

The Panglossian view would not deny that the Soviets could prepare a major strategic offensive - it would only state that all other possibilies would be even worse still.

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
What, are you suggesting that the Soviets are preparing for a major strategic offensive? You are an officer, so am I. So please tell me, how can the primitive Russians prepare a complex counterattack? Not tactical, strategical. Go to the 6th Army and report back on the situation. It will be fine, you will see.

Nice to meet you, Dr. Pangloss. You have a great future as an adviser to Hitler.

The Panglossian view would not deny that the Soviets could prepare a major strategic offensive - it would only state that all other possibilies would be even worse still.

Right then - you've just been sacked from the Fuhrer's inner circle.

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Nice to meet you, Dr. Pangloss. You have a great future as an adviser to Hitler.

The Panglossian view would not deny that the Soviets could prepare a major strategic offensive - it would only state that all other possibilies would be even worse still.

Right then - you've just been sacked from the Fuhrer's inner circle.

What kind of "sacked" are we talking about here?

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

The Panglossian view would not deny that the Soviets could prepare a major strategic offensive - it would only state that all other possibilies would be even worse still.

Right then - you've just been sacked from the Fuhrer's inner circle.

What kind of "sacked" are we talking about here?

Ve send you to the Russian Front.

T2, 26.11.1942 before Axis operations
The Soviets attack at the Flanks of the Stalingrad salient and easily rout the Rumanian defenders there. The 6th Army is encircled and a major gap in the frontline develops.
The rest of the front remains rather quiet with no ground and few air attacks.
That is because many Soviet units are frozen on T1 as shown on the T0 map. Where the forces are not frozen, e.g. around Rshew, the odds for attacks are bad, so they apparently decided to wait or to relocate their forces.
As you see, the frontline is stretched very far, making it difficult to get everything on one map. But I do want to show all the details with MP and CV, so the image is rather large. I promise to do what I can in the future to straighten the frontline for smaller maps.

One request guys, when quoting, please only quote the last post and do not quote huge images. Matryoshka quotes make it difficult to read the thread. Comments and joking of course is very welcome!

T2, 26.11.1941 on the home front
The past year has seen the German officer corps becoming increasingly opposed to the Nazi regime and the person of Hitler. The reasons are manifold. Some blame them for the increasingly difficult situation on all fronts, some fear about the traditional position of the Wehrmacht in the face of the steadily growing "army of the party" Waffen-SS, others bear a personal grudge against the Nazi personal because their career has not materialised as expected, some object to the NS government for moral reasons. No matter the individual reasons, the distrust in the Hitler regime grew sufficiently for a coup d'etat to succeed. Dozens of high ranking persons were executed and several hundreds imprisoned. The details of this, or the influence it has on aspects other than the Eastern Front will be of no concern here, The days of chaos surely contributed to the developing crisis at Stalingrad. Yet it can be expected that, with a new leadership, the Ostheer will undergo a major reform of structure and doctrine. The war in the East is not going to end any time soon.

[1] I am not convinced that the swapping of the Nazi gouvernement for a conservative-militaristic leadership will bring much relief for the rest of the world. But I plan to play non-hitleresque so the man had to go.

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
I am not convinced that the swapping of the Nazi gouvernement for a conservative-militaristic leadership will bring much relief for the rest of the world. But I plan to play non-hitleresque so the man had to go.

Various plans were made by Britain for assasinations of Hitler some of which got to fairly advanced stages. But they were cancelled for that very reason. The alternatives would probably not lead to an end of the war - and might even bring in better leadership for the enemy to run it. So at least by the hard headed analysis of British military planners at the time, that comment seems to be spot on.

Are we being told you have changed the leader of OKH with this post?

T2, 26.11.1942 the reform program
The situation is unsatisfactory in many aspects, among them
-the Axis offensive has stalled and the initiative has gone over to the Soviets
-the structure of the Axis forces is very poor
-the fighting spirit is not satisfactory
-several actual or potential crisis exist on the front
-a comprehensive plan for the future does not exist

The following program is supposed to address those points:

Administration:
1) Moralising. Bring units at or above their NM either by refitting in the rear area or by attacking.
2) C&C fixing. Switching leaders for strong key corps and reducing overload of corps is the primary priority. Following this, corps should be ordered by their national HQs in order to allow flexible stream of support units. On the long term, Army overloads and Army Group overloads will be addressed.
3) Resource distribution. Scarce resources (almost everything) must be directed to the units with the highest value, morale and flexibility. The program includes disbanding surplus, low quality infantry formations and rigorous MAX TOE settings.
4) Logistics. The efficiency of the logistics is to be increased by bringing units closer to the rail and their HQs. Heavy aircraft slowly disappear from the map until the truck situation improves.
5) Rear area security. Partisan formations must be hunted mercilessly while cities are guarded to deny them reinforcements. A network of rear are rail repair assets is to be set up in cooperation with the RHG commands.

Strategy&Operations:
6) Rebalancing. The distribution of the forces is not appropriate to the threat and potentials given by the current position. The North is too strong, the Centre appropriate in general but lacking in chosen areas, the South is appropriate if retracted unless the Soviets considerably reinforce here.
7) Improving the frontline. The current frontline is very complicated and generally favours the Soviets. Exposed positions are to be cleared, flanks and rail lines better protected. In the North and Centre, opportunities for counterattacks must be used.
8) Rescuing the 6th Army. The army must immediately break out and reserves have to secure its retreat.
9) Evacuating the Caucasus. The Caucasus must be cleared as quickly as possible.
10) Evacuating Demyansk.
11) Improving the defensive positions. Advantageous terrain must be taken by local counterattacks to solidify positions. Existing fortifications should be defended and improved.
12) Improving the force ratio. The primary strategic focus is to maintain the force ratio by fighting at a favourable loss ratio. Destruction of Soviet formations as a whole is the key to success, the Vernichtungsgedanke must guide the operations.

@Telemecus: The position is currently held by Zeitzler. But it is important to mention that Zeitzler is only the Chief of staff of the OKH, and not commander in chief of the Army. With the death of Hitler the position became vacant. The tasks associated with this position are now overtaken by Erich von Manstein, but he has not yet been officially named commander of the OKH and still is listed as commander of AG Don.

swapping out hitler for the traditional military elite may not bring much relief to the rest of the world (and Germany is pretty much doomed anyway if, at the very least, by B-29's carrying atomic bombs) but it would sure bring relief to the hunted people inside the German empire! Glad to see I can root for the Germans in this game.

This will test my 6.1M for the Soviets to push the Germans back theory. Clearly the Soviets start with an advantage that gives impetus, but if my theory holds any water the Germans should be able to regain offensive impetus within this system.